If there are no major trades, How many wins?

[oldmangrouch]

50 wins.

A) Any improvement the Blazers make "organically" will be off-set if SA and Utah get healthier. I also expect the Suns to regroup and improve their record, off-setting Houston's decline.

B) Some of the bottom feeders in the west aren't as weak. That could result in the odd extra loss.

C) There will be no surprising teams next season. 54 wins guarantees that teams will take the Blazers seriously. The loss in the Rockets' series exposed the teams' weaknesses.

D) The top teams in the east got stronger.

If we "only" win 50 games, and make it past the first round of the play-offs, I will consider the season a success. If we get blasted in the first round again, I don't care if we win 60 - the season will still be a disappointment.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Once you reach the threshold of 50-60 wins you are more or less in a category of winning (ie. "The good playoff team") and usually see some plateauing is far more likely than the linear progression we've seen in the past 3 or 4 years. Assuming no additions except for draft picks and the subtractions of Channing, Ike, Stud Ruffin, Randolph and Sergio and the insertion of Bayless into the regular rotation and possibly a healthy Martell my best guess is that we'll see right around the same record.

Making the leap to 60+ still feels like one significant move away.

 

[Eastoff]

anything less than 55 wins and going to the second round will disapoint me, but I really have no clue how well they will do.

 

[mook]

for the 3rd straight year you and I have the same prediction on Blazer wins of 50 55 and now 60...

STOMP

Ha! I knew we were on the same page last year but I'd forgotten about the year before. Both times we were a little too optimistic, but looking back were more realistic than a lot of the pessimists on this board.

I'm astounded anybody here thinks we're going to actually win fewer games than last year. I realize that losing Sergio and Frye is quite a blow, but jesus. We've got the second best shooting guard in the league (who only seems to be getting better), one of the best young PF's in the game, and our franchise center is finally 100%. The role players (everyone else on our team) seem positioned to perform about as well as last year, if not a little better. It's quite possible one of them (Rudy or Batum, most likely) really blows up.

Every summer a bunch of teams make a bunch of moves, and we all get our panties in a bunch if we haven't made as many. But the fact is that from year to year the NBA, or for that matter either conference, doesn't really get that much more competitive. Some guys get better (typically the younger guys), and at the same time some guys get worse (usually the older guys).

Given that our team is loaded with younger guys all still on the rise, it's amazing to me that some think we're going to have a worse record next year. Younger teams that are well coached, have a superstar, another guy who is on the career path to multiple All-Stars, and have a quality center rotation, don't generally win fewer games than they did the prior year.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Am I crazy for thinking more along the lines of a 62 win season next year and a Finals berth?

 

[oldmangrouch]

Am I crazy for thinking more along the lines of a 62 win season next year and a Finals berth?

Probably. OTOH we just went from first round patsy, to having a shot at the WCF. I'll take it.

 

[Minstrel]

Adding Miller solidifies my feeling that the team is a high-50s win team and a WCF team. I don't think it closes the gap with the Lakers...but if LA ends up not retaining Odom, it could get pretty interesting.

 

[STOMP]

Adding Miller solidifies my feeling that the team is a high-50s win team and a WCF team. I don't think it closes the gap with the Lakers...but if LA ends up not retaining Odom, it could get pretty interesting.

if LA doesn't retain Odom, I don't like their chances of finishing higher then 4th in the West

STOMP

 

[Idog1976]

if LA doesn't retain Odom, I don't like their chances of finishing higher then 4th in the West

STOMP

I can't imagine the Lakers finishing lower then 3rd unless they have either a major injury or Artest and/or Kobe kill the locker room. Who besides Portland and SA were you picking to beat their record?