If Utah doesn't match

[Idog1976]

are they for anyone?

you can feel that way, but the stats don't agree. Martell isn't very good... his rebounding trails Travis and his D is equally poor.

Yeah, everyone hates on that Jack Outlaw guy. As you describe, your dislike for Travis's game isn't really fact based. Facts being what they are though, his TOs (and stats in general) aren't judged any differently then Martell's or anyone elses. He's averaged 1.6 TO's per 36 minutes for his career while Martell is at 1.5. So you might only seem to see Martell overpassing, but dude is turning the ball over at the same rate as the guy you think is a butterfingers. I don't know a better description of Martell's contributions then... "he has been pretty bland with rare outbursts and has shown a knack to often dissapear"... except I'd go with very rare outbursts. Dude isn't good on D, is a very poor ballhandler for a 3, and statistically is in a dead heat with Travis and Nic at shooting the ball which is supposed to be his calling card.

Safe to say I don't expect much of a bump from his return

STOMP

The Jack Outlaw was clearly a freudian slip on my part. I think that Outlaw's turn overs are much worse then you are making them out to be and that more things he does cause turn overs then are recorded. I watched virtually every game last season and the turn overs Outlaw had were worse then anything I saw from Martell in 07/08. That could be due to Nate McMillan over valuing Outlaw and correctly valuing Martell. That is Outlaw saw crunch time minutes that Martell never sniffed. Nate not having rose colored glasses about Martell might be his biggest endorsement. Nate had a virtual love affair with Outlaw similar to Jack. In both cases Nate seemed to have a blind spot for their game killing errors and I think that is why I got the two confused.

I am NOT endorsing Martell I'm just saying Outlaw killed us Martell I don't think will be in the game to do the damage that Outlaw did.

 

[handiman]

So Millsap is a "glorified garbage player", but Joel isn't?

Hard nosed, defensive minded legit 7'ers are not exactly a dime a dozen, especially ones that are great teammates and on extremely reasonable contracts. Millsap is purely a hustle player, albeit one with a great knack for rebounding. His offense is every bit as limited as Joel's (key difference is Joel knows it), his defense is nowhere near as good, and his rebounding is only marginally better. Add to that he's undersized and he isn't exactly a hot commodity at the salary we're offering.

Joel is probably not as good a backup center as LMA is.

Joel is a much better center than LaMarcus, unless it's a match up against another team with a center that plays on the perimeter. That won't happen every night, though, so you can't plan your rotations around it.

Aldridge doesn't need a backup. He's our iron man and our most well rounded player at both ends of the court. All he needs is a physical guy to spell him for 5 minutes each half. Oden is the weak link in the front court, as far as a guy that needs someone (i.e. Joel) there to help carry the load for the foreseeable future.

 

[STOMP]

The Jack Outlaw was clearly a freudian slip on my part. I think that Outlaw's turn overs are much worse then you are making them out to be and that more things he does cause turn overs then are recorded. I watched virtually every game last season and the turn overs Outlaw had were worse then anything I saw from Martell in 07/08.

probably most of the board watches every single game, and we all have our opinions. Supporting statistical data gives weight to an opinion. Feeling that Travis uniquely benefits from unrecorded TO's seems a bit out there.

That could be due to Nate McMillan over valuing Outlaw and correctly valuing Martell. That is Outlaw saw crunch time minutes that Martell never sniffed. Nate not having rose colored glasses about Martell might be his biggest endorsement. Nate had a virtual love affair with Outlaw similar to Jack. In both cases Nate seemed to have a blind spot for their game killing errors and I think that is why I got the two confused.

I am NOT endorsing Martell I'm just saying Outlaw killed us Martell I don't think will be in the game to do the damage that Outlaw did.

Anyone is free to hold whatever opinion they might, but I like to side with the stats/data as much as possible. We're just going to have to agree to disagree.

STOMP

 

[Ed O]

Hard nosed, defensive minded legit 7'ers are not exactly a dime a dozen, especially ones that are great teammates and on extremely reasonable contracts. Millsap is purely a hustle player, albeit one with a great knack for rebounding. His offense is every bit as limited as Joel's (key difference is Joel knows it), his defense is nowhere near as good, and his rebounding is only marginally better. Add to that he's undersized and he isn't exactly a hot commodity at the salary we're offering.

Millsap is as limited offensively as Joel, but he doesn't know it? Where the hell does that come from? Millsap shot over 53% from the floor while scoring 13.5 ppg... how is that "limited"? Joel IS a limited player offensively who knows his role... Millsap is not at all limited as a power forward.

Calling him purely a hustle player demonstrates that you don't know that much about Millsap. Sorry.

Aldridge doesn't need a backup. He's our iron man and our most well rounded player at both ends of the court. All he needs is a physical guy to spell him for 5 minutes each half. Oden is the weak link in the front court, as far as a guy that needs someone (i.e. Joel) there to help carry the load for the foreseeable future.

Aldridge doesn't need a backup? He's an "iron man" at 37 minutes a game last year?

I don't really know how to respond that. Sorry.

Ed O.

 

[handiman]

Millsap is as limited offensively as Joel, but he doesn't know it? Where the hell does that come from? Millsap shot over 53% from the floor while scoring 13.5 ppg... how is that "limited"?

And Joel was shooting 80% much of the season... So what? Joel knows when to shoot and when not to shoot, sticking to the high percentage shots. For Millsap, someone who relies on putbacks, 53% is good but not great. Whenever I've watched him play, I've been very unimpressed by his game outside the paint. It works in Utah because Okur is usually away from the basket. That won't be the case if paired with Pryz or Oden.

Aldridge doesn't need a backup? He's an "iron man" at 37 minutes a game last year?

What's not to understand? He was out there every night, playing heavy minutes, and only getting brief breaks each half. He often didn't come out until a few minutes into the 2nd quarter... That leaves very little room for a backup PF to have an impact.

 

[Ed O]

What's not to understand? He was out there every night, playing heavy minutes, and only getting brief breaks each half. He often didn't come out until a few minutes into the 2nd quarter... That leaves very little room for a backup PF to have an impact.

Well, it leaves at least 11 minutes a game. I don't think that a guy playing 37 minutes a game is an "iron man", especially since he's missed time with injuries in two of his first three seasons in the NBA.

Ed O.

 

[RickyRubio]

lol wow you guys think of the most ridiculous trade ideas that would NEVER happen.

 

[Idog1976]

probably most of the board watches every single game, and we all have our opinions. Supporting statistical data gives weight to an opinion. Feeling that Travis uniquely benefits from unrecorded TO's seems a bit out there.

Anyone is free to hold whatever opinion they might, but I like to side with the stats/data as much as possible. We're just going to have to agree to disagree.

STOMP

I'm suggesting that not all Turn overs are created equally. Crunch time Turn overs are worse then first quarter turn overs. A turnover, followed by a defenisive miscue, followed by a bad shot (a common pattern for Outlaw) does much more damage to momentum then Martell simply dissappearing during a game. Look I'm not trying to convince you of Martell's brilliance, I'm just saying that Outlaw's incredible scoring ability seems to get people to overlook how brutally bad his defense, boxing out and turn overs are. If I could trade McMillan for Poppovich I would. As it stands McMillan has some crazy attitudes towards some players. Some he clearly undervalues (Rudy) others he clearly overvalues (Outlaw). If you are unable to see how Outlaw had the lion's share of critical miscues well I won't be able to convince you as TO's aren't weighted towards signifigance in a game. I contend that Turnovers that kill momentum are not equal to a turnover that has minimal impact on game flow. Not everything can be accounted for by checking a stat sheet as I'm sure you are aware. What I'm saying really isn't that out there or else we would have kept Jack, who also had a proclivity for unusually devastating turn overs. It's sort of the anti-thesis of clutch decision making like Roy has.

Oh well I guess we can agree to disagree.

 

[Idog1976]

Joel is a much better center than LaMarcus, unless it's a match up against another team with a center that plays on the perimeter. That won't happen every night, though, so you can't plan your rotations around it.

Aldridge doesn't need a backup. He's our iron man and our most well rounded player at both ends of the court. All he needs is a physical guy to spell him for 5 minutes each half. Oden is the weak link in the front court, as far as a guy that needs someone (i.e. Joel) there to help carry the load for the foreseeable future.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07POR10C.HTM

Aldridge as a Center has a PER of 21.1 which is pretty stellar he allows a PER of 19.3 for a net of + 0.8 PER


Joel on the other hand has a PER of 13.6 and gives up a PER of 17.6 for a net of - 4.0 PER

http://www.82games.com/0708/07POR14C.HTM

Aldridge is BETTER as a back up Center as compared to Joel, as his offensive abilities more then make up for his lack of skill at defense. Aldridge would be in a backup role to Oden obviously and wouldn't usually have to face starting centers. What's more if he had Milssap as his PF instead of Outlaw/Frye he would most likely play even better and have a higher PER as he wouldn't have to compensate for the complete lack of defense of Frye/Outlaw and the rotations and mismatches that caused.

LMA/Millsap is >>>>>>>>>>>> better then Joel/Frye or LMA/Outlw or Frye

that is the point. Joel is tradeable like it or not he is the most desirable piece we have to offer ina trade. If we don't then we will have two backups playing limited minutes for more money then the starters they are backing up AND we will still have holes at 1 and 3. Trading for an upgrade at the 1 or 3 makes infinitely more sense then keeping Joel for overpriced insurance. Obviously you ONLY trade Joel if Millsap is signed and not matched by Utah.

 

[hasoos]

You guys are insane if you think Millsap is a better fit than Odom. I've got nothing against Millsap, but signing him to address our 'banger' needs at the backup 4 is like using an assault rifle to hammer in a thumb tack... Way too few minutes to go around for that rotation to work.

Really, I remember times almost every game where I wish we had somebody like Milsap to eat all those minutes that Frye and Outlaw played at PF. You have to remember Outlaw was out there a lot as a 4, getting thrown around like a rag doll in a tornado while trying to fight for position in the key.

 

[handiman]

Joel on the other hand has a PER of 13.6 and gives up a PER of 17.6 for a net of - 4.0 PER

And PER is garbage for taking into account defense. Yawn...

 

[BrianFromWA]

How is it garbage for taking into account defense? I get that defensive stats aren't applied into a PER, but isn't the point of defense making the other player less effective? Making his team less effective?

 

[Minstrel]

And PER is garbage for taking into account defense. Yawn...

How does opponent's PER not measure defense? Holding the player you defend to lower production is not "defense?"

 

[Boob-No-More]

http://www.82games.com/0708/07POR10C.HTM

Aldridge as a Center has a PER of 21.1 which is pretty stellar he allows a PER of 19.3 for a net of + 0.8 PER


Joel on the other hand has a PER of 13.6 and gives up a PER of 17.6 for a net of - 4.0 PER

http://www.82games.com/0708/07POR14C.HTM

Aldridge is BETTER as a back up Center as compared to Joel, as his offensive abilities more then make up for his lack of skill at defense. Aldridge would be in a backup role to Oden obviously and wouldn't usually have to face starting centers.

Why are you comparing stats from 2007-08?

In 2008-09, Aldridge, as a center had a PER of 20.2, but he gives up a PER of 22.8, a net of -2.6

Joel, as a center had a PER of 17.5 and also gave up a PER of 17.5 for a net of 0.

Also, since Aldridge never started at center, the few minutes he did play there were probably against other teams' back-up centers. Of course, given the small sample size, I question the significance of Aldridge's stats at center.

Just like I question the significance of Joel's stats at PF where he had a PER of 31.8 and held his opponents to a PER of 0 for a net of +31.8. Hey, here's an idea, since Joel is obviously a better PF than LaMarcus, if we get Millsap as our back-up 4, we can trade LaMarcus for a PG, start Oden at center and Joel at PF. Why not, the stats show he's a much better PF than Aldridge?

BNM

 

[BrianFromWA]

Now we're thinking outside of the box!

 

[Idog1976]

And PER is garbage for taking into account defense. Yawn...

Well Joel is garbage at offense yawn...

LMA > Joel as a back up center, not starter but as a back up. Because LMA can contribute on both ends even if not as brilliantly as Joel can on ONE end. It's much like Travis can score over everyone but cannot guard even average players.

LMA + Millsap is a pretty decent frontline especially against reserves where it becomes stellar.

No way if we sign Millsap do we retain LMA and Joel and likewise no way we trade LMA. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[Idog1976]

Why are you comparing stats from 2007-08?

In 2008-09, Aldridge, as a center had a PER of 20.2, but he gives up a PER of 22.8, a net of -2.6

Joel, as a center had a PER of 17.5 and also gave up a PER of 17.5 for a net of 0.

Also, since Aldridge never started at center, the few minutes he did play there were probably against other teams' back-up centers. Of course, given the small sample size, I question the significance of Aldridge's stats at center.

Just like I question the significance of Joel's stats at PF where he had a PER of 31.8 and held his opponents to a PER of 0 for a net of +31.8. Hey, here's an idea, since Joel is obviously a better PF than LaMarcus, if we get Millsap as our back-up 4, we can trade LaMarcus for a PG, start Oden at center and Joel at PF. Why not, the stats show he's a much better PF than Aldridge?

BNM

Must have been a misclick for 07/08. My mistake and so out goes the PER argument.

You think it's wise to keep Joel, LMA, Oden and Millsap assuming we sign Millsap?

LMA at center for 07/08 is actually a better representation then his spot minutes at the 5 in 08/09.

If you compare 07/08 LMA at Center and 08/09 Joel at Center you probably have your best comparison as LMA actually started at Center quite a bit in 07/08.

Joel, as a center had a PER of 17.5 and also gave up a PER of 17.5 for a net of 0.

Aldridge as a Center has a PER of 21.1 which is pretty stellar he allows a PER of 19.3 for a net of + 0.8 PER

Looks to me like LMA is > then Joel

 

[handiman]

How does opponent's PER not measure defense? Holding the player you defend to lower production is not "defense?"

It cannot account for the requirements of team defense, especially with a big having to cover for porous perimeter defenders like we've got.

 

[Minstrel]

It cannot account for the requirements of team defense

Yes, it's not a measure of team defense. It's a decent measure of individual defense, though.

Aldridge, however, strikes me (from an observational point of view) as a good team defender. I don't think that would change if he was a center rather than a power forward. The main change would be which player on the opposing team he had to match up with, which goes to individual defense.

 

[andalusian]

And Joel was shooting 80% much of the season... So what? Joel knows when to shoot and when not to shoot, sticking to the high percentage shots. For Millsap, someone who relies on putbacks, 53% is good but not great. Whenever I've watched him play, I've been very unimpressed by his game outside the paint. It works in Utah because Okur is usually away from the basket. That won't be the case if paired with Pryz or Oden.

Millsap relies on putbacks? Check 82games.com - he scores only 4% of his points on tips, Joel is at 20%, Joel took 7% jump-shots, Millsap took 37%, overall - 93% of Joel's scoring came from inside, Millsap - only 63% - these guys are very different.

Don't take my words for it -

http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR14.HTM = Joel
http://www.82games.com/0809/08UTA10.HTM = Millsap

 

[MrSelfDestruct]

Hard nosed, defensive minded legit 7'ers are not exactly a dime a dozen, especially ones that are great teammates and on extremely reasonable contracts. Millsap is purely a hustle player, albeit one with a great knack for rebounding. His offense is every bit as limited as Joel's (key difference is Joel knows it), his defense is nowhere near as good, and his rebounding is only marginally better. Add to that he's undersized and he isn't exactly a hot commodity at the salary we're offering.

Which is exactly why as a trading piece, he could fetch us players we wouldn't otherwise be able to attain.

And Joel was shooting 80% much of the season... So what? Joel knows when to shoot and when not to shoot, sticking to the high percentage shots. For Millsap, someone who relies on putbacks, 53% is good but not great. Whenever I've watched him play, I've been very unimpressed by his game outside the paint. It works in Utah because Okur is usually away from the basket. That won't be the case if paired with Pryz or Oden.

It could (would?) be the case if he were playing alongside LMA though.

It cannot account for the requirements of team defense, especially with a big having to cover for porous perimeter defenders like we've got.

Couldn't it be said that trading Joel may possibly alleviate our crappy perimeter defense by bringing in another player otherwise unavailable (Wallace, Battier, etc.)? I think with the trade of Sergio, as well as potentially less minutes for Blake (if a PG were brought in by trade or Bayless improves from last year) our perimeter and especially our Pick and Roll defense will improve.

At least I hope...if I have to see Oden or another big guarding the opposing teams PG as frequently as we did last year, I'll lose my mind.

 

[handiman]

Millsap relies on putbacks? Check 82games.com - he scores only 4% of his points on tips, Joel is at 20%...

Since when are putbacks and tips the same thing?

Which is exactly why as a trading piece, he could fetch us players we wouldn't otherwise be able to attain.

Not with a GM that appears unwilling to part with value to get value. We'll probably just let him rot on the bench, being ineffective in limited minutes, driving down his value... It would be great if you are right, but I have lost confidence in Pritchard pulling off that sort of thing.

It could (would?) be the case if he were playing alongside LMA though.

That would be a very small front line.

 

[STOMP]

I'm suggesting that not all Turn overs are created equally. Crunch time Turn overs are worse then first quarter turn overs. A turnover, followed by a defenisive miscue, followed by a bad shot (a common pattern for Outlaw) does much more damage to momentum then Martell simply dissappearing during a game.

dude has averaged 1.6 TO's per 36 minutes for his career. In case you are completely lacking context, thats a pretty low amount and you won't be able to convince me otherwise. Sorry.

Look I'm not trying to convince you of Martell's brilliance, I'm just saying that Outlaw's incredible scoring ability seems to get people to overlook how brutally bad his defense, boxing out and turn overs are.

we all have opinions

If I could trade McMillan for Poppovich I would. As it stands McMillan has some crazy attitudes towards some players. Some he clearly undervalues (Rudy) others he clearly overvalues (Outlaw). If you are unable to see how Outlaw had the lion's share of critical miscues well I won't be able to convince you as TO's aren't weighted towards signifigance in a game. I contend that Turnovers that kill momentum are not equal to a turnover that has minimal impact on game flow. Not everything can be accounted for by checking a stat sheet as I'm sure you are aware. What I'm saying really isn't that out there or else we would have kept Jack, who also had a proclivity for unusually devastating turn overs. It's sort of the anti-thesis of clutch decision making like Roy has.

Oh well I guess we can agree to disagree.

again... you're welcome to an opinion, but I'm siding with the data

STOMP