I've spent far too much time pouring over stats and rosters and payrolls the last few days, trying to figure out what I would do in the coming months if I were the Nets GM (one of the luxuries of being self-employed). Below are my tentative conclusions, starting with the philosophy that I think should govern the Nets' decision-making over the next few years, followed by some specific moves (though not in any way intended to be exhaustive) that make sense based on that philosophy.
As usual, the lightning rod and the first matter to be addressed is what to do with Vince, the guy with franchise player talent and skill who, for some stretches every season, plays intensely enough to fulfill that potential and, for other stretches, does not. Despite legitimate criticisms of the length of his last contract (given his age), it otherwise reflects Vince's "half Kobe, half Tim Thomas" reputation. It pays low-end franchise player money, more than what youngsters like LeBron James and Dwight Howard will earn per year for the next couple, but less than what Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Baron Davis will be earning and eons less than what folks like Shaquille O'Neal, Jason Kidd, Jermaine O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, and Rashard Lewis (yes, Rashard Lewis) will get per annum.
Still, considering his age, reputation, the length of his contract, and the fact that trading for any player of his salary is, logistically speaking, an incredibly complex and difficult task, he will be almost impossible to trade for at least another couple of years and will not, in that time frame, bring back anything close to a consolidation of the skill and basketball tangibles that he possesses, either in present players or in prospects. So, no matter how much some folks resist the thought, he IS the Nets’ franchise player at the moment. For at least the next 2-3 years, he will remain the team's most talented and capable all-round player and the one whose mere presence or absence on the court has the most impact on how it performs. (For some eye-opening stats in that regard, see 82games.com. Not even Kidd comes close to VC’s on/off court impact the last three years.)
<div align="center"><span style="font-size:14pt;line-height:100%">Building Around Vince Now and for LeBron in 2010 is the Best Plan</span>
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So -- absent a desire to be as terrible as possible for the short term; further erode the fan base, game attendance, and the organization's financial health; and place all hopes for the future on the improbabilities of lottery balls and the uncertainties of NBA prospect player evaluations --
the most sensible course is to try to acquire players that compliment Vince's game and that either have very low yearly salaries or contracts that expire in 2-3 years, when the era of the Nets as "Vince's team" will come to an end, one way or another.
Helping to justify this strategy is that it can also work to prepare the Nets for the summer of 2010, when LeBron James will likely become a free agent with two major incentives to move to Jersey/Brooklyn: a tremendous boost to his off-court income via terms of his Nike deal and a well-publicized close relationship with Nets minority owner Jay-Z. Forget lotteries and crossing your fingers four years in a row hoping you finally get a top pick and trying to figure out whose game translates to the NBA and how many years they might take to develop.
The most probable franchise-transforming move the Nets can make in the foreseeable future -- by far -- is luring LeBron James in the summer of 2010.
The two plans -- building for LeBron in 2010 and around Vince now -- are largely harmonious: they are both versatile wing players who are best with the ball in their hands initiating the play, either out high or in the post, and will therefore need excellent long range shooters, offensive rebounders, bigs with good hands who can track the ball and create inside passing angles or roll and finish on pick and rolls, and at least one big with a good 20 foot jumper. And of course they'll need the usual: bigs who protect the paint, good team defenders, poised veterans who don't make a lot of stupid mistakes, and high BB IQ players who understand ball and player movement. Most importantly, the roster must be comprised of at least 6-7 players who each combine several of these qualities and who aren't badly below average on one end of the floor. One dimensional specialists (e.g., Boki) should not be figured for any rotation spot higher than 8th.
Based on 2007-08, the Nets have only 3 players complimenting Vince that fit that bill (I’m letting Boone in the group despite his terrible FT% and sometime difficulty finishing around defenders.) They have a couple of other players that MIGHT be two-way contributors next year or the following: Sean, if he develops a decent 12-15 foot jumper and minor ability to put the ball down one dribble and take it to the rim, and Nenad, if he can get back to having any kind of defensive mobility. Marcus is going from a question mark to a caution sign, not so much because of his bad defense (which has noticeably improved since the Kidd trade) but because of his offensive judgment and focus, which I think have actually regressed since his rookie campaign.
Even if the latter three players all improve next year, the Nets don't have a single player on the roster who could be called an outstanding long range shooter. Vince has the team's highest career 3-pt average at 38%, but his percentage is irrelevant for all the possessions where he is creating those shots instead of finishing them. I have high hopes that Harris, with burgeoning confidence, nice shot mechanics, and a full season of support from a new coach, will near that 40% mark next year, but that's not a sure bet. RJ is much improved from 3, this year especially. But he will likely never be great there. And since those are the two positions which figure to see the ball at the arc the majority of the time that Vince creates the defensive collapse, it’s imperative that shooting at one of those positions be upgraded.
This is all a round about way of saying that -- considering age, all-round skill, and size and length of contract -- I feel the smartest move is to trade RJ and a couple of the other pieces in an effort to improve overall depth and to fill the team’s biggest talent void: shooting. I love RJ, love his thoroughbred style and fearless finishing, love his candor and dry humor in interviews. But he is probably overpaid by about $4 M a year and, as a 27 year-old top 10 scorer this year, is likely to fetch more now than he ever will again. If the $13.2M salary owing him next year could somehow be split between a pair of excellent wing shooters/scorers who aren’t big defensive liabilities (e.g., Raja Bell, James Jones, Anthony Parker, Mike Miller, Mike Dunleavy, Jr.) who could finish the plays that come off of Carter/Harris penetration and kickouts, that would be a prudent exchange and would alone likely assure the Nets of a playoff berth next year.
But to contend in the conference, the Nets need more than a couple of shooters, starting with a big man that can score inside without being spoon fed at all times by the guards and who can also deny low post position on the other end and generally hinder or deter paint attacks. The list of big men who can do both these things is pretty short, and, of those, almost none seem obtainable by the Nets via trade or FA. But there might be a couple of options available this summer, depending upon how the playoffs shake out.
<div align="center"><span style="font-size:14pt;line-height:100%">Swinging for the Fences</span>
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Shaq (hear me out first!) could be one of those options. If he ultimately can't put the Suns over the hump against the likes of San Antonio or the Lakers, then the Shaq/Phoenix experiment has failed, as it was those teams he was clearly supposed to enable them to conquer. Or if they manage to beat one of those teams only to get run off the court by a team like Golden State or Denver or N.O., then the experiment will have failed for a different reason.
Admitting a $40M mistake (Shaq’s remaining salary for the next two years) won’t be easy nor will trying to rectify it. But if Kerr is willing to do both while Nash is still playing at or near the top of his game, he would likely be looking for a Sean Marion replacement, a high-flying small forward who thrives getting out ahead of the break and finishing off of laser passes from the best up-tempo point guard in the game. That’s RJ’s career in a nutshell, and it helps that he is better creating his own shot in the halfcourt than Marion, is only 27, and is coming off of his best statistical season, even if he is clearly inferior to Marion as a defender.
For Shaq’s part, he would be much more valuable to the Nets in the eastern conference than to the Suns in the western conference, IMO. With both VC as the main man and Frank as the head coach, the Nets will remain a tempo control team. No matter how much they probe for early opportunities, they are not going to push tempo for 48 minutes, I don’t care how fast Devin Harris is. They are also not going to look for more than about 26-28 minutes a game from Shaq and by those two factors alone will maximize his efficiency on the court.
What they will look for him to provide is exactly what he can still easily give them: an immense physical presence in the paint on both ends that can deny position to any player in the league, finish over anybody in the league, dominate defensive boards and generate quick outlets, set mammoth screens, track the ball off of penetration and create a passing target in the lane or an offensive rebound/putback, and someone you can still give the ball to on the block a few times a game with reasonable odds that he will do something productive with it. Even at his current age and reduced physical prowess, Shaq is light years ahead of any big man the Nets have in what he can give the team near the basket, particularly at the offensive end of the floor.
And those are just his tangibles. His intangibles are even more valuable to a team like the Nets. He is still a huge name in the league that commands interest from media and fans and a lingering sense of professional respect -- even fear -- from opponents. In short, he is still relevant in the NBA and would help ticket sales for a team that struggles to fill half the seats in its home arena and almost never sees national television coverage. He would easily own the largest set of testicles -- both literally and figuratively speaking -- of any Net player in history, an important asset for a team that has lacked both physical and mental toughness for years. For the first time since Charles Oakley left the Raptors, Vince would have a real bodyguard, and the Jason Richardsons of the league would know that if they put a hard foul on Devin, they would pay the price many times over on the other end. And, speaking of Vince, as recently as a year ago, when Shaq was asked which player he would most like to play with before ending his career, he named Vince, saying that Carter has never had the luxury of playing with a great big man and that he (Shaq) could do for Carter what he'd done for Bryant and Wade and "bring him to the next level". Especially given this context, does anyone doubt that O'Neal would be the best possible teammate for Carter, someone to compliment his game and protect him on court and hold him accountable in the lockeroom, something the other “leader” the Nets had never did?
So in view of these ideas, here are a pair of trades I would propose for the Nets this summer. To view them in the more visual-friendly Excel format with a summary of cap status for the next 3 summers, follow the link.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>
Trade #1:
New Jersey
GIVES:
Richard Jefferson $13,200,000.00
DeSagana Diop $2,500,000.00
Trenton Hassell $4,350,000.00
GETS:
Shaquille O'Neal $20,000,000.00
Raja Bell $5,000,000.00
OUTGOING: $20,050,000.00
ACTUAL INCOMING: $25,000,000.00
ALLOWED INCOMING: $25,162,500.00
TRADE COMPLIES: Yes
NET TO PAYROLL: $4,950,000.00
Phoenix
GIVES:
Shaquille O'Neal $20,000,000.00
Raja Bell $5,000,000.00
GETS:
Richard Jefferson $13,200,000.00
DeSagana Diop $2,500,000.00
Trenton Hassell $4,350,000.00
OUTGOING: $25,000,000.00
ACTUAL INCOMING: $20,050,000.00
ALLOWED INCOMING: $31,350,000.00
TRADE COMPLIES: Yes
NET TO PAYROLL: -$4,950,000.00
Trade #2:
New Jersey
GIVES:
Marcus Williams $1,262,520.00
Stromile Swift $6,200,000.00
Maurice Ager $1,042,440.00
GETS:
Anthony Parker $4,550,000.00
Joey Graham $2,449,184.00
OUTGOING: $7,242,440.00
ACTUAL INCOMING: $6,999,184.00
ALLOWED INCOMING: $9,153,050.00
TRADE COMPLIES: Yes
NET TO PAYROLL: -$243,256.00
Toronto
GIVES:
Anthony Parker $4,550,000.00
Joey Graham $2,449,184.00
GETS:
Corey Maggette $8,400,000.00
OUTGOING: $6,999,184.00
ACTUAL INCOMING: $8,400,000.00
ALLOWED INCOMING: $8,848,980.00
TRADE COMPLIES: Yes
NET TO PAYROLL: $1,400,816.00
LA Clippers
GIVES:
Corey Maggette $8,400,000.00
GETS:
Marcus Williams $1,262,520.00
Stromile Swift $6,200,000.00
Maurice Ager $1,042,440.00
OUTGOING: $8,400,000.00
ACTUAL INCOMING: $7,242,440.00
ALLOWED INCOMING: $10,600,000.00
TRADE COMPLIES: Yes
NET TO PAYROLL: -$1,157,560.00</div>
The Nets would put Diop in the Phoenix deal using a S&T and a major portion of their MLE (he would be BYC for trade purposes because his actual salary would be a significant raise to about $5M/year.) The reasons for this strategy are several: his inclusion would be key for Phoenix since he gives them most of the basketball tangibles they got O’Neal for in the first place but at a quarter of O’Neal’s salary, and that salary can be used by the Nets to help the numbers match; getting Diop in the deal frees the Suns to use their MLE on another player to replace Bell; and it helps the Nets leverage away Bell, who has two years left at a VERY reasonable $5M and change per and is a terrific two-way player that shoots 41% from 3 for his career, including each of the last 4 seasons. (Besides, any guy who clotheslines Kobe Bryant is a guy I want on my team.)
Also, to make numbers match, the Nets must put in, and the Suns must take back, Trenton Hassell, who is otherwise going to be $4.35M of wasted cap space the next two years. If we could get BOTH Bell and O’Neal for RJ and Diop while dumping Hassell’s salary, I would even include this year’s Dallas draft pick.
Knowing that the Clippers are looking for as many good PG prospects as possible, I think they would be open to trading Maggette for Marcus and filler, especially since Maggette may opt out anyway. They get an athletic PF and expiring contract in Swift, who’ll be playing to try to stay in the league, and a cheap shooting guard prospect to go along with the talented but frustrating Marcus.
Maggette would have to agree not to opt out or to execute a S & T with the Raptors. If he would agree, it’s easy to see why the deal makes sense for the Raps. They get a tough, elite athlete and all-round wing scorer/slasher in Maggette who consistently gets to the foul line more than any non-big and who has a nice jumper to go with the rest of the package. Mitchell would love him. The Nets get a terrific sharpshooter and two-way player in Parker, who has one year left on a cheap deal paying him 4.55 million for 08-09. Graham is a throw-in to make the numbers work, although he is a young, very athletic wing that might blossom with a change of scenery from the ogre he has for a coach. He’s in the third year of his rookie deal, and the Nets can look to keep him on the cheap next year if they like him. Along with Bell and Carter, the Nets would have a true veteran, 3-wing rotation that ALL can shoot and play defense. Carter would have to move back to SF, where he started his career. And except for the rare matchup against a LeBron physical type, I think it would make Carter even more effective, especially off the dribble.
To replace Marcus, the Nets would need a minimum wage veteran with some gas left in the tank, an Anthony Johnson type, and also a young PG prospect (draft pick, FA camp invitee, or even another vet). This might be riskier in terms of injury problems but still makes sense since Devin should be seeing 38+ minutes a night anyway and since Vince functions as a scoring PG so much in the half court anyway.
You could call the O'Neal move in particular a huge gamble, but only if you’re looking for a single instead of a home run. If you want to play it safe and stay mired in mediocrity, likely for many years, you can trade RJ away for an expiring contract and a young, safe wing prospect (e.g., LaFrentz and Outlaw or a pick). Or, if you’re lucky, you might land a young big man for him that has upside but is 3-4 years away from producing, if ever. Or you might get two mediocre wing players back for him. But his huge salary makes it hard to get both quality and quantity back for him.
If you’d rather maximize the roster for a two-year window with a mixture of proven veterans that just might be able to get you somewhere in the weak EC (with a motivated Carter looking to build a winning legacy before it’s too late, a proud, all-time great center returning to his state of birth to try to leave his career on a championship note, and a burgeoning point guard in Devin still anxious to carve out his place among elite point guards), then do something a little bold. The worst that can happen is that the Nets become the 07-08 Miami Heat for two years and land high lottery picks for 09 and 10 with $23.5M in cap space to go after LeBron in two years. (And isn't this what the "dump RJ/VC" folks are really after, anyway?) The best that can happen is that you go after LeBron anyway with the lure that your team just won a conference title or (ahem) even a championship.
I’m not saying that trading for O’Neal is the only thing the Nets should look to do this summer or even the best thing (and that's assuming he's even available, which he won't be if Phoenix takes a title or gets really close.) They could, for instance, look into acquiring Brad Miller and a young player/pick for RJ & Nenad, as Miller's contract also ends in 2010 and as he offers physical, interior toughness, great passing, and great shooting from the 5 spot (a significant upgrade over Nenad). Obviously if Brand were to opt out and LA were to look for a S&T, that would deserve priority consideration. But absent the acquisition of a VETERAN big that can do some damage on his own inside, the Nets can’t pretend to be title contenders, and there simply aren’t many such players you could even talk about acquiring. That’s why the O’Neal scenario makes sense as a “gamble” to me. The basketball risk is strictly short term and the entertainment value, at least, should be pretty high.
ETA: The site wouldn't let me upload the spreadsheet. Sorry.
