Interesting Ringer article on Blazers and Powell

[wizenheimer]

You have the privilege of 20/20 hindsight. At that point in time, Thomas was the only current All-Star in that season. Up to that point, he was an 8 time All-Star (Dame currently is a 6 time All-Star). Sure, Dumars and Rodman developed into All-Stars and Hall of Fame players in the coming years, but at that slice in time, you wouldn’t be privy to this information.

We don’t know if players on Portland’s roster could develop into All-Stars; Norman Powell could, Nurkic has the potential to. RoCo was 1st team All-Defense.

well,

that Pistons team had 5 players who had 27 all-star appearances in their career. At this point, the current Blazer team very likely only has one past-present-future all-star on the roster if you dismiss Melo...as many of us wish we could.

RoCo is already 30 years old and the odds of him in an all-star game are practically nada. That's not to dismiss him....he's in the group of players like Tayshaun Prince and Shane Battier and Bruce Bowen. Essential glue guys

Nurk has to improve a ton and he'll never make an all-star game as long as he's in the same conference as Jokic, Gobert, and AD

Powell will turn 28 before the season is over and we don't even know if he'll be on the team next season

 

[SharpesTriumph]

It sounds like you think we could be the first team in my lifetime to win a title with one all-star who is not above 6'6"?

I've given a much more lengthy explination to why I think having multiple all-stars, including one who is over 6'6" has made up a large majority of NBA champs and why zero have won with an all-star under 6'6". In general, it's much harder for opponents to neutralize someone who has greater length in a playoff series than someone who is smaller. Being able to see over the top of doubles changes the timing of everything.

I'm not saying it's impossible for the Blazer to win a title with Dame and no other all-stars, but we would be the first to do something like that in a long long time. I prefer attempting to take the path that has been proven to be successful than try to be the first to defy the odds.

Give me a team with 3 all-stars (or a generational talent + 1 all-star) and a marginal coach over a team with 1 short all-star and a good coach any day of the week.

You make it sound like the Blazers can chose their pick from a bucket of allstars.

Of course a legit two way big wing is awesome, those are franchise players and beyond difficult for a team to get one of let alone more.

Do you want the Blazers to trade Lillard? I'm not sure what other realistic option your "insight" provides.

Analysts said teams like the Dirk Mavs or jump shooting warriors would never win a title until they did. Maybe Dame never wins a title, but I want to see what he does in his next 5 years. Surrounding him with talent will help. The more talent the better.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

You’re making it seem like Portland doesn’t have any good players over 6’6. Is Nurk not a good player? Does he not impact both ends of the court? Does Roco not impact both ends of the court?

If we swapped out CJ for Brandon Ingram, we wouldn’t be any closer to a championship imo. So as I said, we don’t need an all star, we need more guys like RoCo and Nurk. Plus defenders that can either shoot, score inside, or make plays for others. Essentially, super role players.

Well the best acquisition would be a dominant two way wing like Giannis, Kawhi, LeBron.

It's beyond difficult to acquire those players.

After that I agree, the Blazers could contend if they had a number or two way role players. Just as the Dirk Mavs won. Dame can lead an elite offense, but he needs spacing or secondary creation help on offense to prevent traps and the whole roster of above average defenders to get a championship defense.

If we had another Nurk and two more Roco I think we could do it. Problem is instead we have offensive only guys such as Kanter Melo or defensive players with offensive limitations such as DJJ.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Because no one cares about the Blazers. Dame and Aldridge were snubbed for years before they got their due. But I know for a fact I wouldn’t need more than one hand (or a couple fingers) to list all the centers that bring a skillset to the table than Nurkic. That’s good enough for me. His impact is obvious.

Years? Didn’t Dame make the All Star game in his second year?

 

[Scalma]

Years? Didn’t Dame make the All Star game in his second year?

technically, but he was snubbed for three years after that. He only made the 2015 team as an injury replacement.

 

[Tince]

You make it sound like the Blazers can chose their pick from a bucket of allstars.

Of course a legit two way big wing is awesome, those are franchise players and beyond difficult for a team to get one of let alone more.

Do you want the Blazers to trade Lillard? I'm not sure what other realistic option your "insight" provides.

Analysts said teams like the Dirk Mavs or jump shooting warriors would never win a title until they did. Maybe Dame never wins a title, but I want to see what he does in his next 5 years. Surrounding him with talent will help. The more talent the better.

Good post!

To some degree, I do think teams like ours must choose their all-stars or trade for them. Milwaukee, our most recent opponent took the 2 time MVP after our selection. They obtained Khris Middleton & Brandon Knight for Brandon Jennings. If those two moves were an average 15th pick and an equal value trade, they wouldn't even be a playoff team.

We've drafted Dame, that was outstanding to get a player at his level with the 6th pick. Our other lottery picks or trades have failed to land us what I believe is a very important, 2nd, two way all-star.

If all I cared about was winning an championship (it's far from that), I would actually probably push for trading Dame since we have so few other paths of obtaining 2 all-stars. I love Dame, I'm not up in arms about 3 playoff series wins in 6 years, so for that reason, I'm not wishing Dame to be traded.

I've said before and I've said again, if there is someone who truly believes ANY of the next 3 champions will only have one all-star who is below average height, I would be happy to take the other end of the bet. While people are saying it could happen (which I agree, it could), I think deep down we understand that it hasn't happened in 31 years and is probably not likely to happen any time soon. Do you feel like it is likely?

In general, I don't think my "get 2 all-stars" is any great insight. It's as much insight as "get a good coach" and I believe it correlates much stronger to winning championships.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Speaking of playoff series wins, did you know Nate McMillan has won one playoff series in SIXTEEN YEARS as a head coach? That’s astounding.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Speaking of playoff series wins, did you know Nate McMillan has won one playoff series in SIXTEEN YEARS as a head coach? That’s astounding.

Just trying to understand the “astounding” part.

A. That he’s only won one series in 16 years
B. That he managed to win one series

Would you like to clarify the astonishment Eric?

 

[BonesJones]

I didn't say we don't have good players over 6'6", I said we don't have an all-star over 6'6". There are A TON of good players in the league, and we have or share. 3 All-NBA players and 9 below average players > 1 All-NBA players and 11 good players in my opinion.

Just because I say someone isn't an all-star, it doesn't mean I think they're garbage. RoCo on a team like the 2017 GSW in the Iggy role would be fantastic. The difference between Nurk & Roco and all-stars is still significant.

So you'll make every excuse in the book for Stotts (did you see Trent indirectly call him out over the defense? Just like Nurk did)...

But it's Olsheys fault because we don't have Kawhi and Embiid to pair with Dame.

Shit, name a team with two All-NBA players this year that didnt sign at least one of them in free agency. I'll wait.

 

[Tince]

So you'll make every excuse in the book for Stotts (did you see Trent indirectly call him out over the defense? Just like Nurk did)...

But it's Olsheys fault because we don't have Kawhi and Embiid to pair with Dame.

Shit, name a team with two All-NBA players this year that didnt sign at least one of them in free agency. I'll wait.

Did you see Powell indirectly call out Nurse last night? Or is that just bias projecting?

I said all-stars, not all-nba for a couple reasons. One of which is there are more all-stars and that wouldn't be such a strict criteria. I can go into the other reason in a later post if you care. There are a handful of teams who have obtained multiple all-stars, they are often the main contenders; I can name them if you'd like.

If you don't feel the GM is responsible for roster creation, who do you think is?

 

[KSF-ERIC]

So you'll make every excuse in the book for Stotts (did you see Trent indirectly call him out over the defense? Just like Nurk did)...

But it's Olsheys fault because we don't have Kawhi and Embiid to pair with Dame.

Shit, name a team with two All-NBA players this year that didnt sign at least one of them in free agency. I'll wait.

Wait no longer:

CJ and Dame
Brown and Tatum
Embiid and Simmons

 

[BonesJones]

Did you see Powell indirectly call out Nurse last night? Or is that just bias projecting?

I said all-stars, not all-nba for a couple reasons. One of which is there are more all-stars and that wouldn't be such a strict criteria. I can go into the other reason in a later post if you care. There are a handful of teams who have obtained multiple all-stars, they are often the main contenders; I can name them if you'd like.

If you don't feel the GM is responsible for roster creation, who do you think is?

How tf did Powell call out Nick Nurse? Care to actually explain?

And CJ wouldve been an all-star this year if he didnt get hurt, so using the "multiple all-stars" argument to bash the job Olsheys done without taking that into account is silly.

 

[beast blazer]

John wooden said there's no defense....

.cannot beat a better offense. In other words a good offense wins
-dan Quayle

 

[Tince]

And CJ wouldve been an all-star this year if he didnt get hurt, so using the "multiple all-stars" argument to bash the job Olsheys done without taking that into account is silly.

CJ was never in this all-star game, nor has he been in one for all 8 seasons in the NBA. You saying he would've been is not factual at all, it's an opinion.

Also, if you're read my criteria that I've listed many times, you would know that I say you need to have at least one all-star that is above average height. CJ is 6-3, the average height is 6-6. And again, CJ is NOT an all-star, so this is a moot point anyway.

Last, I'm not bashing Olshey. I'm pointing out the commonality of all NBA champions over the last 30 years. I'm not angry we're not NBA champions, but those who are, should look at roster creatation as the #1 issue.

 

[BonesJones]

CJ was never in this all-star game, nor has he been in one for all 8 seasons in the NBA. You saying he would've been is not factual at all, it's an opinion.

Also, if you're read my criteria that I've listed many times, you would know that I say you need to have at least one all-star that is above average height. CJ is 6-3, the average height is 6-6. And again, CJ is NOT an all-star, so this is a moot point anyway.

Last, I'm not bashing Olshey. I'm pointing out the commonality of all NBA champions over the last 30 years. I'm not angry we're not NBA champions, but those who are, should look at roster creatation as the #1 issue.

Lmao. So you're using his injury this year against him since you're evaluating talent based simply off of IF someone has been selected to a popularity contest or not, when he only missed it due to injury.

Name an all-star over 6'6 that can score, defend, and shoot that we could have realistically gotten in the past couple years.

 

[Tince]

Lmao. So you're using his injury this year against him since you're evaluating talent based simply off of IF someone has been selected to a popularity contest or not, when he only missed it due to injury.

Name an all-star over 6'6 that can score, defend, and shoot that we could have realistically gotten in the past couple years.

I'm using an 8 year sample size against him. He's had multiple 3 week stretches where he's played like an all-star, but has yet to put together a consistent enough run to make it. He hasn't been hurt the last 8 years, so it's not just an injury thing. I'm not saying he can't, but he hasn't. And yes, availabilty is a factor in this. If he makes the all-NBA team at the end of the year, then you'll be right, I'll be wrong and he'll have only missed the all-star game this year because of injuries.

It sounds as if you believe all-stars are picked off of their Q Score, which is odd. Even more odd, that teams with the more "popluar" players end up winning more championships. Why would a teams made up of popular players have such a huge advantage in winning titles unless they were actually more talented?

I'm not privy to the trade discussions GMs with each other, so anything I said would be me purely guessing, and neither one of us would know if my guesses were real options or not. Other GMs, in both big and small markets, over the last 10 years have found a way to obtain these types of players. These types of players have be selected outside of the lottery, others via trade. You're pretty high on our roster right? So why can't Olshey use all these great assets to get a 2nd all-star? Is it that our roster isn't made up of players that other teams want? They're signed to bad contracts? Olshey can't work out major deals? What's holding him back?

 

[BonesJones]

I'm using an 8 year sample size against him. He's had multiple 3 week stretches where he's played like an all-star, but has yet to put together a consistent enough run to make it. He hasn't been hurt the last 8 years, so it's not just an injury thing. I'm not saying he can't, but he hasn't. And yes, availabilty is a factor in this. If he makes the all-NBA team at the end of the year, then you'll be right, I'll be wrong and he'll have only missed the all-star game this year because of injuries.

It sounds as if you believe all-stars are picked off of their Q Score, which is odd. Even more odd, that teams with the more "popluar" players end up winning more championships. Why would a teams made up of popular players have such a huge advantage in winning titles unless they were actually more talented?

I'm not privy to the trade discussions GMs with each other, so anything I said would be me purely guessing, and neither one of us would know if my guesses were real options or not. Other GMs, in both big and small markets, over the last 10 years have found a way to obtain these types of players. These types of players have be selected outside of the lottery, others via trade. You're pretty high on our roster right? So why can't Olshey use all these great assets to get a 2nd all-star? Is it that our roster isn't made up of players that other teams want? They're signed to bad contracts? Olshey can't work out major deals? What's holding him back?

Because most teams trading a star are trying to rebuild and were built to win...

I hate using all-star appearances as a gauge of something, its surface level. But im trying to play by your terms.

CJ hasn't consistently defended or passed as well as he has this year. I dont think it's a fluke, but you want to say it is and you want to use a popularity contest against him because he was hurt.

 

[Tince]

Because most teams trading a star are trying to rebuild and were built to win...

I hate using all-star appearances as a gauge of something, its surface level. But im trying to play by your terms.

CJ hasn't consistently defended or passed as well as he has this year. I dont think it's a fluke, but you want to say it is and you want to use a popularity contest against him because he was hurt.

Ok... Let's do a friendly wager. I get the teams with 2 "popular" players to win the title this year and you get the rest of the teams. The majority of teams do not have two "popular" players, so if your theory is correct, you should have a better chance of winning. $20?

 

[BonesJones]

Ok... Let's do a friendly wager. I get the teams with 2 "popular" players to win the title this year and you get the rest of the teams. The majority of teams do not have two "popular" players, so if your theory is correct, you should have a better chance of winning. $20?

What theory? What players? What are you talking about?

 

[Tince]

What theory? What players? What are you talking about?

The the all-star selection is just a popularity contest.

I want the teams with 2 or more popular players (aka all-stars) and you get the rest of the teams with 1 popular player or no popular players. You'll be getting way more teams, and popularity doesn't have anything to do with talent, so you should have a great odds.

I just want the surface level teams. Deal?

 

[BonesJones]

The the all-star selection is just a popularity contest.

I want the teams with 2 or more popular players (aka all-stars) and you get the rest of the teams with 1 popular player or no popular players. You'll be getting way more teams, and popularity doesn't have anything to do with talent, so you should have a great odds.

Wait, when tf did I say talent had nothing to do with it? Im simply saying C.J. is all-star caliber and wouldve made it this year if he was hurt, and that using the all-star game to evaluate everything is silly because Dame's been snubbed in the past and we all know he was as good as some players in that game.

The mental gymnastics you're doing is quite insane though, I'll give you that.

 

[Tince]

Wait, when tf did I say talent had nothing to do with it? Im simply saying C.J. is all-star caliber and wouldve made it this year if he was hurt, and that using the all-star game to evaluate everything is silly because Dame's been snubbed in the past and we all know he was as good as some players in that game.

The mental gymnastics you're doing is quite insane though, I'll give you that.

"simply off of IF someone has been selected to a popularity contest or not"

"you want to use a popularity contest"

If you do feel all-star selections are closely linked with talent level, then that's fantastic, because that was my original point.

I heard your story that CJ would've made the all-star game this year if circumstances were different, but it does not make it true.

 

[Tince]

Wait, when tf did I say talent had nothing to do with it? Im simply saying C.J. is all-star caliber and wouldve made it this year if he was hurt, and that using the all-star game to evaluate everything is silly because Dame's been snubbed in the past and we all know he was as good as some players in that game.

The mental gymnastics you're doing is quite insane though, I'll give you that.

Let's do a fun $20 (or more if you'd like) wager to the charity of the winners choice:

I win if CJ misses the all-star game for the 9th straight season in 2021-22.
You (and all of us) win if CJ makes it for the first time in 2021-22.

Deal?

 

[BonesJones]

"simply off of IF someone has been selected to a popularity contest or not"

"you want to use a popularity contest"

If you do feel all-star selections are closely linked with talent level, then that's fantastic, because that was my original point.

I heard your story that CJ would've made the all-star game this year if circumstances were different, but it does not make it true.

They are obviously linked, but the point I'm making is someone can have the talent level of an all-star without being selected, so using it as a hard line gauge of talent is silly and using it to speak against CJs ability is even sillier. Him improving his PPG by 3 would greatly increase his chance of being an "all-star" but him becoming an average defender would be a bigger improvement and would help this team much more even though its do less for his chances at being an all-star.

CJ is easily playing at an all-star level, so it's silly to sit here and act like we only have one all-star talent wise.

 

[Tince]

CJ is easily playing at an all-star level, so it's silly to sit here and act like we only have one all-star talent wise.

There are probably 100 players who have the talent to make the all-star team. I'm referring the ones who actually make the team because that's a whole different level.

My theory is that no team with only one all-star who also is below average height will win a title. It's been true for 30 straight years, I'm willing to bet it will be true again this year. If you think a team who fits that criteria will win a title this year, please say so. I'm willing to bet anyone who wants to take that side of the equation, but nobody ever wants to take me up on it even when they dismiss the theory as weak.