Interesting tidbit in Yahoo article about free-agent Centers

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chris_in_pdx

chris_in_pdx

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https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nerlens-noel-isnt-loser-ongoing-free-agency-struggle-214401408.html

Regardless of the money Noel ultimately receives, his struggle should send waves of worry in the direction of next summer’s batch of free agent bigs. That group includes DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan and Joel Embiid. Lower tiers include Brook Lopez, Clint Capela and Jusuf Nurkic. Not long ago, all six of those players would have been fancying lucrative deals. But will they?
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Are we overvaluing Nurk, or is Brook Lopez and Clint Capela true apples-to-apples comparisons?
 
Natebishop3 said:
Nurk only played well for 20 games. That's what everyone else says. Until he proves himself for a full year, a healthy year, he's going to have skeptics.
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Yup. He's a lower tier center because his "upper tier" play is in a very small sample. Until he's proven, he's not going to be considered a top-tier guy. Justifiably. If Nurkic were on any other team and that team's fanbase was including him in a "Big Three," I think he'd be considered overrated on this forum by many/most.

That's not to say Nurkic is or isn't overrated--I think he's going to be really good. But it's easier for us to buy in after 20 games than for anyone else. We want to buy in.
 
I think the trend of undervaluing centers is due to the fact that GSW and CLE have made the last three finals without dominant centers.

I also think that's short sided. Pretty much any team in the East that has LeBron is going to make the finals and GSW has assembled an unprecedented combination of great shooters/scorers and cheap ring chasing role players. Neither of those things are likely to be repeated/replicated by other teams, and at the end of the day, you still need someone to rebound, protect the rim and set the picks that free up all those shooters.

But hey, if the market for centers bottoms out next summer, we may be able to re-sign Nurk at a relative bargain price. It will be interesting to see what kind of money Noel gets this summer. He hasn't been healthy enough long enough to deserve anything close to a max deal, but right now, it doesn't even sound like he's going to get Evan Turner/Timofey Mosgov money. He may even end up settling for Joe Ingles/Tony Snell money.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
I think the trend of undervaluing centers is due to the fact that GSW and CLE have made the last three finals without dominant centers.

I also think that's short sided. Pretty much any team in the East that has LeBron is going to make the finals and GSW has assembled an unprecedented combination of great shooters/scorers and cheap ring chasing role players. Neither of those things are likely to be repeated/replicated by other teams, and at the end of the day, you still need someone to rebound, protect the rim and set the picks that free up all those shooters.

But hey, if the market for centers bottoms out next summer, we may be able to re-sign Nurk at a relative bargain price. It will be interesting to see what kind of money Noel gets this summer. He hasn't been healthy enough long enough to deserve anything close to a max deal, but right now, it doesn't even sound like he's going to get Evan Turner/Timofey Mosgov money. He may even end up settling for Joe Ingles/Tony Snell money.

BNM
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This has been such a weird offseason.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Nurk only played well for 20 games. That's what everyone else says. Until he proves himself for a full year, a healthy year, he's going to have skeptics.
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Are you a little nervous that Nurk's new found work ethic may be tied to that very fact - that he needs to prove himself in a contract year to get the big bucks?

Like most Blazer fans, I want to believe his motivation is finally having a major role on a winning team, but in the back of my mind, I wonder why this motivation was previously lacking?

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Are you a little nervous that Nurk's new found work ethic may be tied to that very fact - that he needs to prove himself in a contract year to get the big bucks?

Like most Blazer fans, I want to believe his motivation is finally having a major role on a winning team, but in the back of my mind, I wonder why this motivation was previously lacking?

BNM
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This is always the worry with a player in a contract year.

Do you think it is more concerning or less concerning that he is putting out THIS much effort? Some guys have a contract year and don't do much. Some guys play better. Nurk seems to be extremely motivated though. So I guess we can only hope that Dame has rubbed off on him.
 
Boob-No-More said:
I think the trend of undervaluing centers is due to the fact that GSW and CLE have made the last three finals without dominant centers.

I also think that's short sided. Pretty much any team in the East that has LeBron is going to make the finals and GSW has assembled an unprecedented combination of great shooters/scorers and cheap ring chasing role players. Neither of those things are likely to be repeated/replicated by other teams, and at the end of the day, you still need someone to rebound, protect the rim and set the picks that free up all those shooters.

But hey, if the market for centers bottoms out next summer, we may be able to re-sign Nurk at a relative bargain price. It will be interesting to see what kind of money Noel gets this summer. He hasn't been healthy enough long enough to deserve anything close to a max deal, but right now, it doesn't even sound like he's going to get Evan Turner/Timofey Mosgov money. He may even end up settling for Joe Ingles/Tony Snell money.

BNM
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And Golden State only gets away with it because they have the angry unicorn that is Draymond. They can go small and still have a modicum of rim protection as well the change in the point-of- attack that he offers on offense, essentially running the point.

Good luck to any team trying to replicate that.
 
theprunetang said:
And Golden State only gets away with it because they have the angry unicorn that is Draymond. They can go small and still have a modicum of rim protection as well the change in the point-of- attack that he offers on offense, essentially running the point.

Good luck to any team trying to replicate that.
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Yep, other teams thinking they don't need a quality starting center because GSW doesn't have one, are just plain delusional. No one else has a Draymond, a KD, or a Curry either, let alone all three.

I think it's ironic that the fact that Bogut's injury was the turning point in the 2016 finals gets lost in all of this. Once they lost their big man in the middle, it became a layup drill for LeBron and company. As good as GSW's small ball death lineup is, they can't play it for 48 minutes a game.

In addition to Noel, it will be interesting to see how much JaVale McGee gets. GSW is good enough they can afford to lose their back up center and still win, but he played very well for them this year. It's ironic he got that max deal in DEN all those years ago when he sucked and now that he's actually a good player, he can't get an offer from anyone. In this case, I guess it all evens out in the end...

BNM
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Our evaluation of Nurk is based on our observation of his impact on our team. I imagine the article's evaluation of Nurk is simply based on cumulative statistics.

Perhaps we're overvaluing him--or perhaps he's underappreciated for now.
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Probably both ;)
 
Nurkic played well for us but it was a small sample size. He barely played for Denver towards the end. Denver's Nurkic would not have got a $20M or so contract at all. Portland's Nurkic might get close to that if his performances from February, March and April are anything to go by. It's still too early to tell, let's wait a bit. I don't find it outrageous at all that they don't mention him at the same level as Cousins, Embiid and even Jordan.
 
Boob-No-More said:
Yep, other teams thinking they don't need a quality starting center because GSW doesn't have one, are just plain delusional. No one else has a Draymond, a KD, or a Curry either, let alone all three.

I think it's ironic that the fact that Bogut's injury was the turning point in the 2016 finals gets lost in all of this. Once they lost their big man in the middle, it became a layup drill for LeBron and company. As good as GSW's small ball death lineup is, they can't play it for 48 minutes a game.

In addition to Noel, it will be interesting to see how much JaVale McGee gets. GSW is good enough they can afford to lose their back up center and still win, but he played very well for them this year. It's ironic he got that max deal in DEN all those years ago when he sucked and now that he's actually a good player, he can't get an offer from anyone. In this case, I guess it all evens out in the end...

BNM
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McGee can only get a veteran minimum from GS I think. He has to go elsewhere and there are not many teams that need him and can pay him significant money IMO.

What the hell is going on with Plumlee? Is he getting a deal? It's silly that his brother got $50M and he probably won't get close, being a much better player but coming to an extension at a much worse time.
 
If Nurk simply maintains the play he gave us at the end of last season, he'll be upper tier.

Per 36: 18.7ppg / 12.8reb / 3.9ast / 2.3blk / 1.5stl on 51% shooting and elite (top 5 C) level rim protection.

That's absolutely top tier. That would make him a top 5 Center in the league. That level of play is just as good as DeMarcus Cousins, in terms of impact on winning.

If he impoves? He'll be a top 3 Center. A two point uptick, 1 rebound uptick, and .5 uptick for all other stats would give him a per 36 statline of:

21ppg / 14reb / 5ast / 3blk / 2stl

It's crazy that last season, with a new team, while being an out of shape 22-year old, that he was already very close to putting up a statline like that.

Nurk is the real deal. Capela and Lopez don't compare.
 
Sarni said:
Nurkic played well for us but it was a small sample size. He barely played for Denver towards the end. Denver's Nurkic would not have got a $20M or so contract at all. Portland's Nurkic might get close to that if his performances from February, March and April are anything to go by. It's still too early to tell, let's wait a bit. I don't find it outrageous at all that they don't mention him at the same level as Cousins, Embiid and even Jordan.
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Embiid had just as small of a sample size... And Nurkic has shown to provide rim protection near the level of Jordan, and everything else he does on the court is better than DeAndre.

Nurkic will improve. Maybe he outplayed his own talent level when he played for us last year. But the work that he's putting him makes me expect him to maintain the play he gave us last year at least, and that makes him elite.
 
BonesJones said:
Embiid had just as small of a sample size... And Nurkic has shown to provide rim protection near the level of Jordan, and everything else he does on the court is better than DeAndre.

Nurkic will improve. Maybe he outplayed his own talent level when he played for us last year. But the work that he's putting him makes me expect him to maintain the play he gave us last year at least, and that makes him elite.
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If he maintains that level, he is definitely a tier over Lopez and Capela. We need to see this though. I will reserve my judgment until 30 games into 2017-18 season.

I think he is going to be awesome. Potential was clearly visible at Denver.
 
Natebishop3 said:
This is always the worry with a player in a contract year.

Do you think it is more concerning or less concerning that he is putting out THIS much effort? Some guys have a contract year and don't do much. Some guys play better. Nurk seems to be extremely motivated though. So I guess we can only hope that Dame has rubbed off on him.
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I don't think Nurk is working this hard for the money only.

Dude has a passion for this fan-base, and he knows how passionate this fanbase is about him. There was so many times where he talked about wanting to see how crazy he could make the fanbase get by playing well.

Nurk's from a small village in Bosnia. I don't think he's working this hard to get $20M a year, because I don't think he's a guy that wants to have an 8-story mansion on a California beach with 10 sports cars parked in his garage.

The dude's grinding for this franchise.
 
Sarni said:
McGee can only get a veteran minimum from GS I think. He has to go elsewhere and there are not many teams that need him and can pay him significant money IMO.

What the hell is going on with Plumlee? Is he getting a deal? It's silly that his brother got $50M and he probably won't get close, being a much better player but coming to an extension at a much worse time.
Click to expand...

Bad timing for Mase. I can't believe he may end up back in BRK on a cut rate contract. I know his game is limited, but I loved his high motor and high BBIQ. He definitely deserves more than his brother, a LOT more.

BNM
 
SlyPokerDog said:
If they don't give Nurkic at least what they paid Crabbe I'm giving Olshey rabies.
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Crabbe was a stupid and big overpay, if we start justifying bad contracts as a yard stick for what we pay other players in a market that is glutted with C's then we make another stupid move.
 
Blazinaway said:
Crabbe was a stupid and big overpay, if we start justifying bad contracts as a yard stick for what we pay other players in a market that is glutted with C's then we make another stupid move.
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Last summer was like an eBay auction. The buyers got caught up in the bidding frenzy, overpaid, ended up with buyer's remorse and are now looking to resell the crap they bought at a loss.

BNM
 
BonesJones said:
If Nurk simply maintains the play he gave us at the end of last season, he'll be upper tier.

Per 36: 18.7ppg / 12.8reb / 3.9ast / 2.3blk / 1.5stl on 51% shooting and elite (top 5 C) level rim protection.

That's absolutely top tier. That would make him a top 5 Center in the league. That level of play is just as good as DeMarcus Cousins, in terms of impact on winning.

If he impoves? He'll be a top 3 Center. A two point uptick, 1 rebound uptick, and .5 uptick for all other stats would give him a per 36 statline of:

21ppg / 14reb / 5ast / 3blk / 2stl

It's crazy that last season, with a new team, while being an out of shape 22-year old, that he was already very close to putting up a statline like that.

Nurk is the real deal. Capela and Lopez don't compare.
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Loved what I saw but he does have an injury history and lets see if he can sustain those 20 games or so with us over a full season. If he can I am happy and he'll get a very nice contract, if he is lets say solid but not near elite and perhaps gets injured again then he gets a significantly lower contract. And don't forget the cap likely goes sideways next year and after the binge of last summer and more spending this summer, there will likely be even fewer teams with significant cap
 
Boob-No-More said:
Last summer was like an eBay auction. The buyers got caught up in the bidding frenzy, overpaid, ended up with buyer's remorse and are now looking to resell the crap they bought at a loss.

BNM
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yep, and its now obvious the "cost" of moving those mistakes has gotten more expensive, another reason not to overpay
 
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Blazinaway said:
Loved what I saw but he does have an injury history and lets see if he can sustain those 20 games or so with us over a full season. If he can I am happy and he'll get a very nice contract, if he is lets say solid but not near elite and perhaps gets injured again then he gets a significantly lower contract. And don't forget the cap likely goes sideways next year and after the binge of last summer and more spending this summer, there will likely be even fewer teams with significant cap
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Less weight, more muscle balance in his legs, and better conditioning lowers his chance of injury.

I want him to get the money he deserves, but I also want us to be in the best possible cap situation, which would mean him getting a lower deal. Therefore, I don't care what number he gets.
 
Based on today's market - or lack there of... Do you think Portland ought to try and use that as leverage to negotiate a discounted extension with him now?
 
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