Is Collins the missing ingredient?

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wizenheimer said:
there's another way to look at that though

Zach stayed relatively healthy when he was averaging 17 minutes a game coming off the bench. But last season, he was a starter averaging 10 more minutes/game and could only play 11 games

so, you could then ask what was the fluke: his last two injury-filled seasons or his first two injury-free seasons? Which pair of seasons is more predictive of the future?
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His first injury, the shoulder, had nothing to do with increased minutes. That was a random fluke of an injury.
 
julius said:
The Missing Ingredient? Wasn't their big hit "everybody plays the fool"?
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julius said:
His first injury, the shoulder, had nothing to do with increased minutes. That was a random fluke of an injury.
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are you sure?

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he had played 85 minutes in 96 hours. How many times in his previous 2800 minutes had he been whacked on the shoulder? Did the stress of a short-term, significant increase in stress contribute to weakening his Labrum? I know, from experience, that fatigue can cause injury, and that increased work load can cause fatigue
 
wizenheimer said:
are you sure?

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he had played 85 minutes in 96 hours. How many times in his previous 2800 minutes had he been whacked on the shoulder? Did the stress of a short-term, significant increase in stress contribute to weakening his Labrum? I know, from experience, that fatigue can cause injury, and that increased work load can cause fatigue
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Yes I am sure. Fluke injuries can happen in 3 minutes or 36 minutes.
 
I don't think he's the "missing ingredient", but having him able to play PF would mean that there would always be a defensive-minded guy available at that spot. I'd certainly prefer to see Collins playing that spot when Kanter is on the court than Melo. Melo could slide over to the backup 3 position. Since it's doubtful that Collins sees the court this year, I guess it's just pointless speculation at this point to think about how the minutes would get divided up.
 
When I lived in L.A. in the 80's, my Lakers had uber talent - Magic, Kareem, Worthy ... but truly, Rambis was the glue guy that made it all work.
 
1) A healthy Zach could really help our team, or any team.
2) I don't know whether "healthy Zach" is a fictional construct.
3) Boxscores are generally mediocre data, but particular poor for role players.
4) Zach is a very intelligent defensive player with unicorn-like 3&D potential.

Hope it all works out. I'm rooting for him.
 
Stevenson said:
When I lived in L.A. in the 80's, my Lakers had uber talent - Magic, Kareem, Worthy ... but truly, Rambis was the glue guy that made it all work.
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I assume you are joking, but I honestly believe that to be true for the Warriors and Draymond.
 

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wizenheimer said:
there's another way to look at that though

Zach stayed relatively healthy when he was averaging 17 minutes a game coming off the bench. But last season, he was a starter averaging 10 more minutes/game and could only play 11 games
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That's a sobering thought. Zach came off the bench in HS and college, and again his first two years in Portland, and had no injury history that I'm aware of. He's been nothing but an injury magnet since being awarded the starting position. Did his earlier coaches know something?

I don't know which scouting members preview coming opponents, but I'd imagine that's handled by the coaching staff. I'm assuming there's another group of scouts responsible for talent evaluation. And that their responsibility includes evaluating all NBA players as well as college and G-League talent. And assign grades for all of them. In that regard, it would make some sense if one of the gauges was how Portland's current player(s) stacked up by position against all the others they grade
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If "scouting team" doesn't refer to advance scouts like I was picturing, then you may be right. Why not then just say some of the coaches hate him, though?
 
I can see them hating that he’s always injured but why would they be mad at Zach himself?
 
I assume we wouldn't be interested in Zion Williamson since he's had repeated knee injuries. Obviously injury prone: Deep knee bruise in AAU kept him out several months. Grade 1 knee sprain at Duke when his shoe exploded on him caused him to miss 3 weeks. Bruised knee at summer league got him shut down. Torn meniscus last year caused him to miss 4 months and kind of played sporadically in the bubble. The kid's got a time bomb for a knee. Wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole.
 
wizenheimer said:
they are all injuries that occur frequently....which are not "flukes":


* "In fact, Collins’ anterior dislocation — in which the upper arm bone slides out of socket to the front — is the most common type of dislocation, representing about 95 percent of all shoulder dislocations"

https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/...e-for-the-portland-trail-blazers-forward.html

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we are talking about the shoulder injury. That is the injury that he got when his minutes increased. I'm saying that his minutes increasing didn't cause his injury, and it was was a fluke occurrence of the injury.

the frequency of separated shoulders in the NBA is not common, but knee and ankle injuries are. Also, knee and ankle injuries are an impact injury, a shoulder injury is not an impact injury. you're confusing the KIND of injury with the FREQUENCY of the injury, and you're correlating the causes of said injuries.

Also, Bowie and Oden had repeated *similar* injuries. Broken leg and knee issues.

So again, Zach's shoulder injury was a fluke injury in the sense that it wasn't related to his increase in minutes, nor was his ankle injury related to an increase in minutes.
 
handiman said:
If "scouting team" doesn't refer to advance scouts like I was picturing, then you may be right. Why not then just say some of the coaches hate him, though?
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like I said, it could be the scouts of NBA and college talent, not the coaches

that said, I'm fairly skeptical of what the guy talking to the Platypus said, or at least about the way the sentiments of the scouts were characterized. I can imagine they'd have doubts about Zach's durability. And for sure, right now Zach probably has negative value; a big with 2 ankle surgeries from a single injury probably raises big red flags. But I seriously doubt the scouts hate Zach. Doubts don't equal hate. But maybe that's just semantics.
 
e_blazer said:
I assume we wouldn't be interested in Zion Williamson since he's had repeated knee injuries. Obviously injury prone: Deep knee bruise in AAU kept him out several months. Grade 1 knee sprain at Duke when his shoe exploded on him caused him to miss 3 weeks. Bruised knee at summer league got him shut down. Torn meniscus last year caused him to miss 4 months and kind of played sporadically in the bubble. The kid's got a time bomb for a knee. Wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole.
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I think any team, including the Blazers, would love to have 20 year old Zion just beginning the 2nd year of his 4 year rookie deal. Obviously, his value is degraded by the injuries, so he has 2 different ceilings, but the healthy one is sky high

but then, the risk/reward for Zion is in an entirely different zip code than the risk/reward for Zach

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Zion doesn't have any similarity comps yet, but Zach does:

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that's not a who's-who list, that's just a who? list
 
wizenheimer said:
I think any team, including the Blazers, would love to have 20 year old Zion just beginning the 2nd year of his 4 year rookie deal. Obviously, his value is degraded by the injuries, so he has 2 different ceilings, but the healthy one is sky high

but then, the risk/reward for Zion is in an entirely different zip code than the risk/reward for Zach

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Zion doesn't have any similarity comps yet, but Zach does:

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that's not a who's-who list, that's just a who? list
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Did I mention the zits on Zion's ass? I'm sure that needs a full statistical analysis from you too. ;)

Obviously, I'm just messing with you. Zion is far and away the superior player and I'd take him in a heartbeat, although I do think his career is likely to be shortened by his weight and the strain he puts on his knees. Regarding Zach's injury history, I don't have any concerns about his shoulder. A repaired shoulder after an injury associated with dislocation, when followed with appropriate physical therapy, isn't likely to be a recurring injury. The stress fracture to his ankle is more concerning to me just because it didn't heal well following the first surgery and it's an area of the body that doesn't have a great blood supply. In my view, it's way too early to give up on him, but I'm sure that Olshey will want protections in any contract extension or new contract.
 
julius said:
So again, Zach's shoulder injury was a fluke injury in the sense that it wasn't related to his increase in minutes, nor was his ankle injury related to an increase in minutes.
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you have no way of knowing if there was any correlation between the starting role/increased minutes and his two major injuries. Sure, it could very well just be coincidence. But the injuries occurred over the course of only 11 games, and the only thing different about those 11 games and his first 140 game was a much heavier workload

I'm not saying there is a correlation. But there sure as hell should be that worry in the F.O. of the Blazers since it's entirely possible Zach could miss most of the last 2 seasons of his rookie deal heading into his extension
 
wizenheimer said:
I think any team, including the Blazers, would love to have 20 year old Zion just beginning the 2nd year of his 4 year rookie deal. Obviously, his value is degraded by the injuries, so he has 2 different ceilings, but the healthy one is sky high

but then, the risk/reward for Zion is in an entirely different zip code than the risk/reward for Zach

View attachment 36015

Zion doesn't have any similarity comps yet, but Zach does:

View attachment 36016

that's not a who's-who list, that's just a who? list
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Late-career Chris Anderson who can occasionally hit a mid-range jumper is an apt comparison.
 
e_blazer said:
Did I mention the zits on Zion's ass? I'm sure that needs a full statistical analysis from you too. ;)

Obviously, I'm just messing with you. Zion is far and away the superior player and I'd take him in a heartbeat, although I do think his career is likely to be shortened by his weight and the strain he puts on his knees. Regarding Zach's injury history, I don't have any concerns about his shoulder. A repaired shoulder after an injury associated with dislocation, when followed with appropriate physical therapy, isn't likely to be a recurring injury. The stress fracture to his ankle is more concerning to me just because it didn't heal well following the first surgery and it's an area of the body that doesn't have a great blood supply. In my view, it's way too early to give up on him, but I'm sure that Olshey will want protections in any contract extension or new contract.
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sure, no argument, and I know you weren't really comparing Zion to Zach in any fashion than injury history. And I'm really not advocating giving up on Zach. I think my biggest concern is knowing he's an Olshey project and Olshey's history of bidding against himself, especially with Meyers. I hope Olshey lets the market decide Zach's value

by the way, how often are you close enough to Zion's ass to count the zits? and do you count with your fingers?
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I assume you are joking, but I honestly believe that to be true for the Warriors and Draymond.
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No, I'm not. Those 80's Lakers won 5 championships with Rambis on the roster. But in '88 he was gone, and they didn't win another with Magic et al.
 
Stevenson said:
No, I'm not. Those 80's Lakers won 5 championships with Rambis on the roster. But in '88 he was gone, and they didn't win another with Magic et al.
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That was also the rise of the Pistons and Bulls championship windows. Lakers were getting pretty old at that point, just like Boston was...in case someone were to make an argument about Bill Walton or someone else off the bench being their 'chip glue.
 
wizenheimer said:
you have no way of knowing if there was any correlation between the starting role/increased minutes and his two major injuries. Sure, it could very well just be coincidence. But the injuries occurred over the course of only 11 games, and the only thing different about those 11 games and his first 140 game was a much heavier workload

I'm not saying there is a correlation. But there sure as hell should be that worry in the F.O. of the Blazers since it's entirely possible Zach could miss most of the last 2 seasons of his rookie deal heading into his extension
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Just as you have no way of knowing. It could just be that he woud've gotten that injury in 2 minutes, vs 36 minutes. His increased minutes doesn't mean that's the cause.

He played only 24 minutes in his 3rd game of the season, in the game he got hurt against Dallas. That's not significantly more than he played regularly the previous year. And you can't tell me that in *3* games his body was already worn down enough to make it more susceptible to an injury. Especially since he played 8 games once he returned and had NO shoulder issue, and his next injury was totally and completely unrelated to his shoulder.

If that doesn't scream fluke or random injury, nothing will.
 
julius said:
His increased minutes doesn't mean that's the cause.
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there you go...that's all you had to say and I wouldn't have questioned it

neither one of us know, so your 'absolutes' that the increased playing time wasn't the cause just seemed a bridge to far for me. I wasn't saying there was a correlation, just that two sets of facts coincided

and, it didn't have to be cumulative minutes over a full season causing enough fatigue to set conditions for an injury. Zach averaged 17 minutes in college; he averaged less than 17 minutes over his first two season. And he averaged 17 over 20 playoffs games. That's over 200 consecutive games where he averaged 17 minutes. Then, to start last season he was suddenly averaging over 30 minutes a game and was headed for another 30 minutes when he was injured. His career could easily have conditioned him for a load of 17 minutes a game. Increasing that load by 80% could have been the trigger for injury
 
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