Is Houston really more experienced?

[Natebishop3]

It seems like the conventional wisdom would say that Houston has much more experience than we do, but I wanted to be sure.

Houston Rockets
Asik - 3 years (27 games)
Beverley - 1 year (6 games)
Isaiah Canaan - 0 years (rookie)
Casspi - 0
Robert Covington - 0 (rookie)
Troy Daniels - 0 (rookie)
Francisco Garcia - 2 years (12 games)
Jordan Hamilton - 2 years (6 games)
James Harden - 4 years (49 games)
Dwight Howard - 6 years (61 games)
Terrence Jones - 1 year (2 games)
Jeremy Lin - 1 year (4 games)
Motiejunas - 1 year (1 game)
Chandler Parsons - 1 year (1 game)
Greg Smith - 1 year (5 games)
Josh Powell - 5 years (46 games)

Total - 28 years / 220 games
Average: 1.86 years / 14.6 games

Portland Trail Blazers
Aldridge - 3 years (18 games)
Barton - 0 years
Batum - 3 years (18 games)
Claver - 0
Crabbe - 0
Freeland - 0
Leonard - 0
Dame - 0
Rolo - 1 year (6 games)
Matthews - 2 years (16 games)
CJ - 0
Robinson - 0
Watson - 2 years (8 games)
Mo - 4 years (41 games)
Dorell - 3 years (7 games)

Total - 17 years / 114 games
Average: 1.1 years / 7.6 games

The thing is, if you only look at the main rotation players, it gets a little closer.

Houston
Asik - 3 years (27 games)
Beverley - 1 year (6 games)
Francisco Garcia - 2 years (12 games)
James Harden - 4 years (49 games)
Dwight Howard - 6 years (61 games)
Terrence Jones - 1 year (2 games)
Jeremy Lin - 1 year (4 games)
Chandler Parsons - 1 year (1 game)
Motiejunas - 1 year (1 game)

Total: 20 years / 163 games
Average: 2.22 years / 18.1 games

Portland
Aldridge - 3 years (18 games)
Barton - 0 years
Batum - 3 years (18 games)
Dame - 0
Rolo - 1 year (6 games)
Matthews - 2 years (16 games)
Robinson - 0
Mo - 4 years (41 games)
Dorell - 3 years (7 games)

Total: 16 years / 106 games
Average: 1.7 years / 11.77 games

So really only an average of .52 years more experience and 6.33 games. It's not THAT big. The numbers are skewed in favor of Houston because Dwight and Harden have played so many playoff games.

 

[RR7]

I think that's the big thing, Howard and harden both having finals experience and being their top two players is big.

 

[illmatic99]

Good stuff.

Do a McHale vs Stotts comparison too.

 

[blue9]

Howard, Harden and Asik have all progressed deep into the Playoffs and two have Finals experience. The only guy we have with winning experience is our 6th man. None of our core players have ever won a series. That's a pretty big difference.

 

[Natebishop3]

Howard, Harden and Asik have all progressed deep into the Playoffs and two have Finals experience. The only guy we have with winning experience is our 6th man. None of our core players have ever won a series. That's a pretty big difference.

True, but here's the thing, Harden was basically carried through the playoffs by Westbrook and Durant, so it's not like he has a ton of experience leading a team deep into the postseason. Dwight on the other hand does, but not in the west. He was on a Magic team that was able to basically coast through the east. Their only competition was Boston and Cleveland at the time. The rest of their rotation is probably less experienced than our rotation.

 

[maxiep]

I think that's the big thing, Howard and harden both having finals experience and being their top two players is big.

Bingo.

 

[maxiep]

Howard, Harden and Asik have all progressed deep into the Playoffs and two have Finals experience. The only guy we have with winning experience is our 6th man. None of our core players have ever won a series. That's a pretty big difference.

But it's Wright that actually has a ring.

 

[maxiep]

Good stuff.

Do a McHale vs Stotts comparison too.

As players? Not even close.

 

[Natebishop3]

The two key matchups for us will be Dame vs Bev and LA vs Jones. I think we win both of those matchups. Harden is going to get his, and Dwight is Dwight. There's not much we can do about that, but if our stars do what they usually do, we should prevail. The X Factor is Parsons/Batum. We really need Nic to neutralize him. He can be truly lethal if he gets going, and Nic cannot allow that to happen.

 

[THE HCP]

I think that's the big thing, Howard and harden both having finals experience and being their top two players is big.

Great point!!

 

[blue9]

I think you're downplaying their experience a bit too much. Harden has shown the ability, over the past two seasons, to put a team on his back. And he's seen first-hand what the intensity of those games is like. Same with Howard. And because they have each other, neither has to do it alone.

With that said, I'm not as impressed with HOU as I thought I would be at the beginning of the season. They are definitely beatable. If we play them using some of the new tactics we saw last night (jumping screens!) then I won't be too surprised if we win the series. And if either Dame or LMA exceeds my low expectations then that could really help push the team to a series win.

 

[blue9]

But it's Wright that actually has a ring.

Ha! I forgot about Wright. I always try to forget about Wright!

 

[Natebishop3]

I think you're downplaying their experience a bit too much. Harden has shown the ability, over the past two seasons, to put a team on his back. And he's seen first-hand what the intensity of those games is like. Same with Howard. And because they have each other, neither has to do it alone.

With that said, I'm not as impressed with HOU as I thought I would be at the beginning of the season. They are definitely beatable. If we play them using some of the new tactics we saw last night (jumping screens!) then I won't be too surprised if we win the series. And if either Dame or LMA exceeds my low expectations then that could really help push the team to a series win.

I'm downplaying their experience as a team. Yes, Harden and Dwight have a ton of playoff experience, but the rest of the team does not.

 

[mook]

Nic Batum has 18 games of experience absolutely sucking in the playoffs.

If somebody shoots themselves in the face with a shotgun 18 times, do you consider them an experienced marksman?

 

[BigGameDamian]

Nic Batum has 18 games of experience absolutely sucking in the playoffs.

If somebody shoots themselves in the face with a shotgun 18 times, do you consider them an experienced marksman?

Remember Cliff Robinson in the playoffs?

 

[mook]

I think playoff experience is overrated. However, I think experience at excelling in the playoffs is certainly worth looking at.

Are you excelling in the playoffs if you only play 17mpg (Lopez)? Not really.
Are you excelling if you have a cumulative PER over 18 games as a starter of 10.2 (Batum)? Uh uh.
Or 12.8 PER/16 games (Matthews)? Nope.
Or 12.8 PER/41 games (Williams)? Cringe.

This team really doesn't have much experience of excelling in the playoffs, outside of Aldridge (18PER/18 games).

What it does have, though, is incredible continuity. 4 starters played 82 games together. They know what they are supposed to do. They aren't going to re-invent themselves or ask anything new of themselves in the playoffs. Just rely on the system that got them here.

I think it's completely fair to point out the lack of playoff experience on this team. But at the same time you have to acknowledge there's a level of cohesion and continuity that comes from playing together with such consistent minutes that most playoff teams just don't have. It's maybe not playoff experience, but it's another kind of experience that leads to the same result--guys playing in a system and not getting overwhelmed by the intensity of the moment.

 

[mook]

Remember Cliff Robinson in the playoffs?

Yeah, he's pretty much Exhibit A for playoff experience.

Incidentally, I'm exceedingly experienced at rebuilding the carburetor of a 1978 Mazda GLC. I had to re-do that motherfucker 4 times, and each time I did it worse than the last.

Turns out it needed new spark plugs. (Bonus: I sheered one off while trying to fix that, and somehow managed to drop parts of it down into the cylinder. I was a terrible, terrible mechanic.)

 

[HailBlazers]

Good stuff.

Do a McHale vs Stotts comparison too.

Draco Did!

http://sportstwo.com/threads/261259-Coaching-Advantage-for-Stotts

In four years as a head coach McHale has coached 6 playoff games, last year when Houston lost to an injured and one dimensional Thunder team.

As an executive in 13 seasons at Minnesota McHale was part of a franchise that advanced past the first round once.

As a head coach for five seasons Stotts has only coached 5 playoff games, with the Bucks that lost to the Pistons in 2006. So he does have a playoff win. But as an assistant Stotts has been on many coaching staffs that have advanced deep into the playoffs. He has been to the finals in 1996 and 2011, the conference finals in 1993, and the second round in 1997, 1998, 2009. He has lost in the first round in 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2010, 2012. Of course he also won a title in 2011 as an assistant with Dallas.

I'm excited to see what sort of adjustments Stotts is able to make as the series goes on. I was not impressed with McMillian in the playoffs, he was vastly out coached at times. It will be great to see a coach who at the least holds his own and at his best can give us an edge. Go Zers!

 

[mook]

I think playoff experience is overrated. However, I think experience at excelling in the playoffs is certainly worth looking at.

Are you excelling in the playoffs if you only play 17mpg (Lopez)? Not really.
Are you excelling if you have a cumulative PER over 18 games as a starter of 10.2 (Batum)? Uh uh.
Or 12.8 PER/16 games (Matthews)? Nope.
Or 12.8 PER/41 games (Williams)? Cringe.

This team really doesn't have much experience of excelling in the playoffs, outside of Aldridge (18PER/18 games).

What it does have, though, is incredible continuity. 4 starters played 82 games together. They know what they are supposed to do. They aren't going to re-invent themselves or ask anything new of themselves in the playoffs. Just rely on the system that got them here.

I think it's completely fair to point out the lack of playoff experience on this team. But at the same time you have to acknowledge there's a level of cohesion and continuity that comes from playing together with such consistent minutes that most playoff teams just don't have. It's maybe not playoff experience, but it's another kind of experience that leads to the same result--guys playing in a system and not getting overwhelmed by the intensity of the moment.

Looks like we're adding some of that Playoff Experience, but more importantly the overall team cohesion is really paying off like I'd hoped.

Just for fun, I did a quick check to see how the stats I cited above look now that we're 4 games into it:
Lopez is averaging 30mpg.
Batum: 17.2 PER
Wes: 7.6 PER (but fucking awesome defense on Harden)
Williams: 10.1 PER

I was kind of surprised to notice that Wes is only shooting 21% from three in this series.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Looks like we're adding some of that Playoff Experience, but more importantly the overall team cohesion is really paying off like I'd hoped.

Just for fun, I did a quick check to see how the stats I cited above look now that we're 4 games into it:
Lopez is averaging 30mpg.
Batum: 17.2 PER
Wes: 7.6 PER (but fucking awesome defense on Harden)
Williams: 10.1 PER

I was kind of surprised to notice that Wes is only shooting 21% from three in this series.

PER has some serious flaws...