Is Howard a better back-up than Outlaw?

[STOMP]

Howard hardly played any games for the last 2 seasons. You think that's because he's a bad player? It's because he was injured.

injuries tend to linger a lot longer with old players. What injuries did he suffer from? Isn't being healthy/able to contribute part of being a good back-up?

Now he's not injured and HE'S BACK.

the pin in your balloon is the fact that the two season prior to the two he was (according to you) injured he played 80 & 80 games and sucked ass posting 12.8 and 12.5 PERs while logging 31.7 and 26.5 MPG. The season before that he played 60 games and posted another subpar PER of 13.0... and the guy he was guarding tonight went 8-10 from the field. I'm not holding my breath that he'll be worthy of 5 MPG

I've asked many times for someone to list all the super big backup 4s that Travis shouldn't be able to physically handle... for some reason no one ever lists them. I'll start... Millsap,

STOMP

 

[rocketeer]

Howard hardly played any games for the last 2 seasons. You think that's because he's a bad player?

yes. he hasn't been a useful player since he played for the rockets and he was bad his last year or so there as well.

 

[Haakzilla]

Howard hardly played any games for the last 2 seasons. You think that's because he's a bad player? It's because he was injured. Now he's not injured and HE'S BACK. Look out Aldridge!! Your ass is grass!!

...speaking of grass, how did that old lawn mowing story go?!?!?!

 

[jlprk]

...speaking of grass, how did that old lawn mowing story go?!?!?!

Refresh my memory, Hack. I remember you on a burro in Mexico, but nothing about mowing the lawn.

 

[Haakzilla]

Refresh my memory, Hack. I remember you on a burro in Mexico, but nothing about mowing the lawn.

...damnit, where is nuraman when I need him

 

[jlprk]

the pin in your balloon is the fact that the two seasons prior to the two he was...injured, he played...12.8 and 12.5 PERs... The season before that he...posted another subpar PER of 13.0...

When I said he's back (= he's uninjured) I didn't mean he is or was a big star. I meant he's back to where he was, which as you say, is a PER of 13. Not bad. Average is 15. My point is that the guy is not the rookie we're used to having, for whom we wait 5 years to get to a 13 PER. He's there now, and should take minutes from Aldridge when Aldridge isn't producing. We're so used to easing in new players over several years under Pritchard's bake philosophy that I'm just noting you can change that slowness to incorporate new guys when you acquire the luxury of experienced players, even if their PERs are 13.

 

[jlprk]

...damnit, where is nuraman when I need him

Would you believe he's busier at work, so he hardly posts anymore. Yet he still passed the 30,000 mark. Even with limited time, his post count is still moving up faster than mine ever did. If you combined all my screen names over 7 years I'd have about 11 thousand. There are guys on the General Board with like 50 thousand, but their posts are usually 1-liners, whereas I used to spend 30-45 minutes on most of my posts. I'd research links, but now no one posts a non-ESPN link or your post is deleted. "The ESPN mod is insane." Where did I read that?

 

[rocketeer]

When I said he's back (= he's uninjured) I didn't mean he is or was a big star. I meant he's back to where he was, which as you say, is a PER of 13. Not bad. Average is 15. My point is that the guy is not the rookie we're used to having, for whom we wait 5 years to get to a 13 PER. He's there now, and should take minutes from Aldridge when Aldridge isn't producing. We're so used to easing in new players over several years under Pritchard's bake philosophy that I'm just noting you can change that slowness to incorporate new guys when you acquire the luxury of experienced players, even if their PERs are 13.

and what is outlaw's per?

 

[jlprk]

and what is outlaw's per?

15.1 last season. Howard has had seasons of 17.2, 17.1, 17.1, 17.0, 16.6, 16.1, 16.0, etc. In his old age he's been about 13. But he earns his PER in a conventional way, with a mixture of rebounding, defense, and inside and outside scoring, not the more narrowly-based PERS, mainly from outside scoring, of McMillan forwards like Aldridge and Outlaw. So he'd help as much as Aldridge does. Look at Howard out there. He's the only reliable player of the preseason. This is how Aldridge proves he's worth a max contract? These young punks are worthless (you excepted, of course). If McMillan had a team full of Howards, Blakes, and Przybillas, I bet he'd get them to at least .500. (No championship, but it would sure be easy to coach, and save Paul Allen money.)

 

[mook]

nope

Outlaw is 25 this year and is coming off a season with a 15.1 PER... by my recollection he has pretty much always sucked in the preseason

Howard is 36 this year coming off a season with a 10.9 PER. It was 6 seasons ago when he last had a PER over 15

I wouldn't hang my hat on the results/play of meaningless games

STOMP

If Howard can indeed hop in a time machine and go back to his Houston self and log 80 games with a 13 PER for just 10-15 minutes a night, he's really probably an upgrade over Travis.

I realize Outlaw has the higher PER at 15. But he gets it with his scoring ability, and not much else.

Howard, on the other hand, seems to have a lot of intangibles that don't show up in PER. He throws the outlet pass better. He directs the offense more. He gets the ball into Oden.

Which would you rather have, a guy who creates his own shot but doesn't really work in the flow of the offense and plays craptastic defense, or a guy who can get Greg Oden two extra scoring opportunities, rebound and defend well enough that Oden doesn't have to pick up an extra foul?

Here's another way to think about the equation:

Outlaw (PER 15) + Oden (PER 18) = Net 33 PER (Plus about half an extra personal foul a game on Oden cleaning up Outlaw mistakes)

Howard (PER 13) + Oden (PER 21, because he's a more effective scorer next to Howard) = Net 34 PER (and no extra fouls)

That's not even taking into account the better all-around defense Howard gives you.

This all, of course, assumes that a 36 year old big man can just uncork a bottle and go back 3 years.

 

[mook]

That said, who is the better backup depends on how you define "backup".

If you need a guy to log 10 minutes a night behind Aldridge, it appears that Howard might be a better option. Might. If he can keep up his current pace.

If you need a reserve who can replace Aldridge in the starting lineup if he gets injured, I'd much rather have Outlaw. Without Aldridge, Outlaw's youth and ability to score suddenly becomes much, much more valuable, and Howard will get completely abused playing against most fresh, starting power forwards (although Outlaw will too, so maybe that's a wash).

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

Howard better? No. Just more traditional at PF. Outlaw is different and brings different skills to the PF position, especially on offense.

 

[Natebishop3]

Obviously Howard isn't going to score as much as Outlaw, that's a given, but I feel Howard can contribute in other ways that Outlaw would not. I think his passing his far superior to Travis. I think he is going to make the heady play. He should also know how to defend other fours a bit better.

 

[STOMP]

If Howard can indeed hop in a time machine and go back to his Houston self and log 80 games with a 13 PER for just 10-15 minutes a night, he's really probably an upgrade over Travis.

I realize Outlaw has the higher PER at 15. But he gets it with his scoring ability, and not much else.

Howard, on the other hand, seems to have a lot of intangibles that don't show up in PER. He throws the outlet pass better. He directs the offense more. He gets the ball into Oden.

Which would you rather have, a guy who creates his own shot but doesn't really work in the flow of the offense and plays craptastic defense, or a guy who can get Greg Oden two extra scoring opportunities, rebound and defend well enough that Oden doesn't have to pick up an extra foul?

Here's another way to think about the equation:

Outlaw (PER 15) + Oden (PER 18) = Net 33 PER (Plus about half an extra personal foul a game on Oden cleaning up Outlaw mistakes)

Howard (PER 13) + Oden (PER 21, because he's a more effective scorer next to Howard) = Net 34 PER (and no extra fouls)

That's not even taking into account the better all-around defense Howard gives you.

This all, of course, assumes that a 36 year old big man can just uncork a bottle and go back 3 years.

come on now... you're counting on Juwan Howard's slow feet to keep Greg out of foul trouble? If you want to send JH into a time machine where he has a 13 PER you have to go back to 2004-5 (5 seasons not 3). When was the last time a 36 year old player reverted to their form from a half decade ago after years of decline?

Posters act like Travis turns the ball over every time he touches it, but of the guys in last year's rotation, only Batum and Joel averaged fewer turnovers per minute. As for pairing him with Greg on occasion, when Travis is in he's pulling a Big out to the 3 pt line. Greg's most devastating skill is rebounding, and I actually like the idea of having his chances gathering offensive boards when covered one on one. I totally disagree that having a perimeter shooter who can create their own shot doesn't work within the flow of the offense. Dude spreads the D with a very effective perimeter threat which benefits both post players and slashers.

Given the history of both these two players and how players age in general, I'm pretty sure how this will shake out once the real season starts

STOMP

 

[mook]

come on now... you're counting on Juwan Howard's slow feet to keep Greg out of foul trouble? If you want to send JH into a time machine where he has a 13 PER you have to go back to 2004-5 (5 seasons not 3). When was the last time a 36 year old player reverted to their form from a half decade ago after years of decline?

Posters act like Travis turns the ball over every time he touches it, but of the guys in last year's rotation, only Batum and Joel averaged fewer turnovers per minute. As for pairing him with Greg on occasion, when Travis is in he's pulling a Big out to the 3 pt line. Greg's most devastating skill is rebounding, and I actually like the idea of having his chances gathering offensive boards when covered one on one. I totally disagree that having a perimeter shooter who can create their own shot doesn't work within the flow of the offense. Dude spreads the D with a very effective perimeter threat which benefits both post players and slashers.

Given the history of both these two players and how players age in general, I'm pretty sure how this will shake out once the real season starts

STOMP

He had PER's of 13, 12.5, and 12.8 his three years in Houston. So yeah, the last time he had a PER of 13 was 5 years ago. The last time he had a PER of 12.8 was 3 years ago. Whatever. (Is this really worth our time even nitpicking? Jeez.)

No, Outlaw doesn't turn it over much. Why? Because his two moves are: 1. Rise and shoot. 2. Dribble once, rise and shoot. If you aren't passing and you aren't attacking the rim, how exactly do you turn it over?

Yes, Oden is a devastating rebounder. He is when Outlaw plays, and he is when Outlaw doesn't play. Oden flat out boards.

However, Oden is not a decent offensive threat when Outlaw plays because he doesn't get the ball much. He is an offensive threat when Howard plays, though, because Howard actually looks for him.

 

[rocketeer]

However, Oden is not a decent offensive threat when Outlaw plays because he doesn't get the ball much. He is an offensive threat when Howard plays, though, because Howard actually looks for him.

generally having your pf make the post entry pass isn't a huge part of the offense. if oden isn't getting the ball enough(and i agree that he didn't last season) there are 3 other guys on the court i'd be blaming before the pf.

oden should be a bigger offensive threat with outlaw on the floor because while teams would love to give up a juwan howard jump shot, you can't double off of outlaw and give him wide open 3s.

 

[oldmangrouch]

generally having your pf make the post entry pass isn't a huge part of the offense. if oden isn't getting the ball enough(and i agree that he didn't last season) there are 3 other guys on the court i'd be blaming before the pf.

oden should be a bigger offensive threat with outlaw on the floor because while teams would love to give up a juwan howard jump shot, you can't double off of outlaw and give him wide open 3s.

I have to agree.

In short spurts, Howard might be the better defender/rebounder. When the team needs points, Outlaw is still the better option. Howard's superior passing is nice, but not a huge priority for the position.

In fairness, I will admit I have gone back-and-forth on this....but I just can't convince myself that Howard has enough left in the tank to play sustained minutes at a high level.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I have to agree.

In short spurts, Howard might be the better defender/rebounder. When the team needs points, Outlaw is still the better option. Howard's superior passing is nice, but not a huge priority for the position.

In fairness, I will admit I have gone back-and-forth on this....but I just can't convince myself that Howard has enough left in the tank to play sustained minutes at a high level.

I think that the aspect I like most about Howard is that he would neither want nor expect big minutes. Howard would absolutely be satisfied with 10 mpg, whereas Outlaw surely expects 25+. IMO (especially for THIS team) 10 Howard mpg > 25 Outlaw mpg.

 

[STOMP]

No, Outlaw doesn't turn it over much. Why? Because his two moves are: 1. Rise and shoot. 2. Dribble once, rise and shoot. If you aren't passing and you aren't attacking the rim, how exactly do you turn it over?

right... TO never ever passes the ball in the half court set this isn't even close to true. Dude was 4th on the club in FTA per minute so the never attacks the rim claim holds a similar amount of water. While his FTA rate was lower then in the past couple years, it was still higher then Howard's rate in any of the last 6 seasons.

Yes, Oden is a devastating rebounder. He is when Outlaw plays, and he is when Outlaw doesn't play. Oden flat out boards.

However, Oden is not a decent offensive threat when Outlaw plays because he doesn't get the ball much. He is an offensive threat when Howard plays, though, because Howard actually looks for him.

Howard's outside threat isn't nearly on the same level as Travis's in range, accuracy, or the ability to create his own look, so his man can't cheat to the middle like Howard's defender. When Greg gets an offensive board with only one defender in the paint he's going to go right back up and convert more times then not. I'd rather a majority of Greg's offensive contributions come this way then being force fed post up opportunities as that part of his game has left a lot to be desired. Having the focus coming from the perimeter and penetration rather then clear outs allows their many perimeter threats to do their thing and Greg to focus on what he does best. I completely disagree that Greg is not an offensive threat used this way... this is how Portland kills teams with their balance.

STOMP

 

[hasoos]

right... TO never ever passes the ball in the half court set this isn't even close to true. Dude was 4th on the club in FTA per minute so the never attacks the rim claim holds a similar amount of water. While his FTA rate was lower then in the past couple years, it was still higher then Howard's rate in any of the last 6 seasons.

Howard's outside threat isn't nearly on the same level as Travis's in range, accuracy, or the ability to create his own look, so his man can't cheat to the middle like Howard's defender. When Greg gets an offensive board with only one defender in the paint he's going to go right back up and convert more times then not. I'd rather a majority of Greg's offensive contributions come this way then being force fed post up opportunities as that part of his game has left a lot to be desired. Having the focus coming from the perimeter and penetration rather then clear outs allows their many perimeter threats to do their thing and Greg to focus on what he does best. I completely disagree that Greg is not an offensive threat used this way... this is how Portland kills teams with their balance.

STOMP

1. Your assumption that being 4th on this team of jump shooters in free throw attempts per minute meaning he attacks the rim is flat out wrong. It only is a barometer of how he is on this team. That being, this team of jump shooters. So basically you are saying he is the 4th best of a jump shooting team at attacking the rim. That means he sucks at it.

2. Your PF shouldn't be an outside threat. Channing Frye is gone because he is an outside in power forward, and he didn't rebound. This team is a team built around stars. Unlike past Blazer teams that were well balanced, that means you get the ball to the "horses" that are going to score for you, and get the fuck out of the way. Otherwise play defense ande rebound. Get your buckets when you get a chance intead of shooting every time you touch the ball.

 

[STOMP]

1. Your assumption that being 4th on this team of jump shooters in free throw attempts per minute meaning he attacks the rim is flat out wrong. It only is a barometer of how he is on this team. That being, this team of jump shooters. So basically you are saying he is the 4th best of a jump shooting team at attacking the rim. That means he sucks at it.

no, actually his rate of getting to the rim is middle of the pack by nba forward standards. To say that he never attacks the rim is just overboard hyperbole

2. Your PF shouldn't be an outside threat.

whatever dude... if you're so set in your head with the word power and not seeing how the pieces fit together there is little to discuss. I can recognize the value of an outside threat from the PF spot as I (like most coaches) don't want multiple players in the paint on offense at the same time. As such I can see the value in KG, Sheed, Bosh, DWest, LA, etc... shooting out there. Greg and Joel are the low post bangers for Portland, LaMarcus Travis and the rest of the team play around them which gives them spacing for drives and their Bigs room to dominate the offensive boards... Portland didn't lead the league in offensive rebounds by accident, it was by design.

STOMP

 

[LittleAlex]

right... TO never ever passes the ball in the half court set this isn't even close to true. Dude was 4th on the club in FTA per minute so the never attacks the rim claim holds a similar amount of water. While his FTA rate was lower then in the past couple years, it was still higher then Howard's rate in any of the last 6 seasons.

Howard's outside threat isn't nearly on the same level as Travis's in range, accuracy, or the ability to create his own look, so his man can't cheat to the middle like Howard's defender. When Greg gets an offensive board with only one defender in the paint he's going to go right back up and convert more times then not. I'd rather a majority of Greg's offensive contributions come this way then being force fed post up opportunities as that part of his game has left a lot to be desired. Having the focus coming from the perimeter and penetration rather then clear outs allows their many perimeter threats to do their thing and Greg to focus on what he does best. I completely disagree that Greg is not an offensive threat used this way... this is how Portland kills teams with their balance.

STOMP

Have you actually watched Travis play? If you have a chance at a live game, just watch what Travis does for an entire quarter. Unfortunately, this isn't possible on TV.

The stat line does not show the entire negative impact he has on the team.

 

[STOMP]

Have you actually watched Travis play? If you have a chance at a live game, just watch what Travis does for an entire quarter. Unfortunately, this isn't possible on TV.

The stat line does not show the entire negative impact he has on the team.

right, I've never watched Travis play yet here I am in the offseason debating Blazer minutiae... good grief

STOMP

 

[Ed O]

Have you actually watched Travis play? If you have a chance at a live game, just watch what Travis does for an entire quarter. Unfortunately, this isn't possible on TV.

Why not? I mean, when he's on the bench he's off the screen, but otherwise I rarely have trouble watching any given player I care to on television.

Ed O.

 

[Denny Crane]

Better? In some ways, in other ways not. Like you don't expect him to be able to play big minutes for stretches of games, and you don't expect him to be taking 3's with the game on the line.

 

[KingSpeed]

Hmmmm

 

[Fender]

^^^Very predictable...

 

[Nikolokolus]

Hmmmm

Right ... 'cause we all know this is how Trav is going to play night and night out for the remainder of the season, nobody's saying he's untalented, he's just not consistent from game to game -- he starts doing this on a nightly basis (or near nightly) and no complaints from me.

 

[KingSpeed]

Right ... 'cause we all know this is how Trav is going to play night and night out for the remainder of the season, nobody's saying he's untalented, he's just not consistent from game to game -- .

And Juwan is?? He averaged like 1.8 rpg in 11 mpg last season.