Is it time to be looking at HCA? (Merged)

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I will gladly admit i was wrong if we get in!
 
We will gladly accept your admission!
 
Our expectations have no bearing on what ends up happening. I don't base my expectation on "not overreaching" or "making sure we lock up one thing before we look at something else." We're irrelevant on-lookers. I base my expectations on what I think is the most logical outlook. Based on these factors (that I mentioned in another post):

-They're right on the cusp of a top-3/4 seed in terms of record
-They've played better than their record by point differential
-They don't have any players over-performing (hopefully Roy isn't) and have a number of players one would expect to play better going forward (Oden, Bayless, Rudy, Batum...maybe Aldridge)
-The schedule the rest of the way is easier than what they've already played

...I think that the team is extremely likely to reach the playoffs and has a strong shot at being a 3/4 seed (with an outside shot at the 2 seed). I may be overlooking something or overrating one or all of those factors, but based on them, I think my expectations are in line with reality.
 
I don't care about HCA. I just want to get in!
 
As fans we get to ponder stuff like this... but the team just has to focus on winning every game. Personally I'm hoping we make the playoffs. Home court advantage would be icing on the cake.

Nate has done an amazing job with this team by being the anti-Mixim. Instead of focusing on who has the best roster... who should win... who the home team is... who is more experienced, who the refs are... what could happen... they focus on playing hard every minute of the game.
 
I still maintain that I would be happy just making the playoffs at this point. Yes, you strive for HCA, but I think getting to the postseason would be an accomplishment for this team.

Getting there is the goal, winning there is the dream.
 
Portland's now 30-17. We're more than half way through the year and we're ahead of the Rockets, Suns, Jazz, Hornets and Mavs.

Now I don't think we'll catch the Spurs, but if we can win the division, which I think we can, we will automatically become the 3rd seed, regardless of whether the Spurs or Hornets have a better record.

We're just 1 game behind the Nuggets. The way I see it. This is a race against one team - Denver.

The remaining schedules for both teams are below. Of the 35 remaining games, we have 18 home games and 17 road games. Of the 18 home games, we play New York, Oklahoma City (twice), Memphis (twice), the Clippers, Indiana, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Philadelphia. That's 10 of the 18 home games that are locks in my opinion. The other 8 games are against Utah, Atlanta, San Antonio, the Lakers (twice), Dallas, Phoenix, and Denver. Dallas will have just played in Phoenix the night before, so I think we'll take that game as well. Phoenix will have just played Utah at home, so I think we'll get that win too. I think it's fair to say that we'll at least win 4 of those other remaining home games against these top tier teams. None of our home games are back-to-backs.

Now, of the 17 road games we'll probably go 1-1 on the remaining 3-game trip against Dallas and Oklahoma City. Although we head to Golden State having just played the night before, the game before is against OKC. I think we'll be fine. The next 3-game trip is another toughie - play against Houston, the next night against the Spurs, and then Minnesota. I see us going 1-2. We head to Denver after having played Indiana the night before. We'll likely lose that. Next up we have a 5-game trip. We'll likely lose to Atlanta and Cleveland, but we'll likely take Memphis, Indiana, and Milwaukee - going 3-2. Our next 4-game trip I only seeing us losing the Spurs, and winning against OKC, Houston, and Memphis - so 3-1. Our last road game is against, the Clipps. We should win that.

So our road record looks like it would be 10-7. That's consistent with how we've played other road trips.

If this all happens we'll have a 53-29 record. That definitely guarantees a playoff spot in my opinion.

But is it enough to win the division?

Denver has a record of 31-16. Of their 35 remaining games, they have 16 home games and 19 road games. Edge to Portland right off the bat. Of the 16 home games, they play Oklahoma City (twice), Clippers (twice), New Jersey, Washington, Golden State, New York, and Sacramento. That's 10 of the 16 home games that are locks in my opinion for them. The other 6 games are against San Antonio, the Lakers, Boston, Atlanta, Portland, Houston, and Utah. I see them losing to the Spurs, Lakers, Boston (they'll have just played the night before), and Houston (they'll have played the night before).

Now, of the 19 road games they have a monster 8-game road trip! I see them though going 5-3, losing against New Jersey (they'll have just played the night before), Orlando (they'll have just played the night before), and Philadelphia. They have a two-game trip, where I see them losing to Detroit and going 1-1. They then have another 2-game trip, where they'll likely lose against the Jazz and go again 1-1. They visit Memphis which is a win. They have a 3-game trip against Phoenix, Dallas, and New Orleans. I see a doughnut for this one. They head to Minnesota and get a victory. The crazy thing is they head to the Lakers, where they'll likely get a loss and the last game of the year will be against Portland in Portland.

If this all happens they'll also have a 52-30 record. We better hope they don't tie us though. In that case, in the head-to-head series, they'll likely tie with us. We've already beat them on our court and they've beat us on their's. So then it goes to either division or conference record. That's where I think we might be screwed.

We just have to flat out win more games than them to guarantee the 3rd spot. Otherwise, I see us getting the 4th seed.

Either way, we make the Playoffs. Guaranteed.
 
Crimson the Cat said:
Portland's now 30-17. We're more than half way through the year and we're ahead of the Rockets, Suns, Jazz, Hornets and Mavs.

Now I don't think we'll catch the Spurs, but if we can win the division, which I think we can, we will automatically become the 3rd seed, regardless of whether the Spurs or Hornets have a better record.

We're just 1 game behind the Nuggets. The way I see it. This is a race against one team - Denver.

The remaining schedules for both teams are below. Of the 35 remaining games, we have 18 home games and 17 road games. Of the 18 home games, we play New York, Oklahoma City (twice), Memphis (twice), the Clippers, Indiana, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Philadelphia. That's 10 of the 18 home games that are locks in my opinion. The other 8 games are against Utah, Atlanta, San Antonio, the Lakers (twice), Dallas, Phoenix, and Denver. Dallas will have just played in Phoenix the night before, so I think we'll take that game as well. Phoenix will have just played Utah at home, so I think we'll get that win too. I think it's fair to say that we'll at least win 4 of those other remaining home games against these top tier teams. None of our home games are back-to-backs.

Now, of the 17 road games we'll probably go 1-1 on the remaining 3-game trip against Dallas and Oklahoma City. Although we head to Golden State having just played the night before, the game before is against OKC. I think we'll be fine. The next 3-game trip is another toughie - play against Houston, the next night against the Spurs, and then Minnesota. I see us going 1-2. We head to Denver after having played Indiana the night before. We'll likely lose that. Next up we have a 5-game trip. We'll likely lose to Atlanta and Cleveland, but we'll likely take Memphis, Indiana, and Milwaukee - going 3-2. Our next 4-game trip I only seeing us losing the Spurs, and winning against OKC, Houston, and Memphis - so 3-1. Our last road game is against, the Clipps. We should win that.

So our road record looks like it would be 10-7. That's consistent with how we've played other road trips.

If this all happens we'll have a 53-29 record. That definitely guarantees a playoff spot in my opinion.

But is it enough to win the division?

Denver has a record of 31-16. Of their 35 remaining games, they have 16 home games and 19 road games. Edge to Portland right off the bat. Of the 16 home games, they play Oklahoma City (twice), Clippers (twice), New Jersey, Washington, Golden State, New York, and Sacramento. That's 10 of the 16 home games that are locks in my opinion for them. The other 6 games are against San Antonio, the Lakers, Boston, Atlanta, Portland, Houston, and Utah. I see them losing to the Spurs, Lakers, Boston (they'll have just played the night before), and Houston (they'll have played the night before).

Now, of the 19 road games they have a monster 8-game road trip! I see them though going 5-3, losing against New Jersey (they'll have just played the night before), Orlando (they'll have just played the night before), and Philadelphia. They have a two-game trip, where I see them losing to Detroit and going 1-1. They then have another 2-game trip, where they'll likely lose against the Jazz and go again 1-1. They visit Memphis which is a win. They have a 3-game trip against Phoenix, Dallas, and New Orleans. I see a doughnut for this one. They head to Minnesota and get a victory. The crazy thing is they head to the Lakers, where they'll likely get a loss and the last game of the year will be against Portland in Portland.

If this all happens they'll also have a 52-30 record. We better hope they don't tie us though. In that case, in the head-to-head series, they'll likely tie with us. We've already beat them on our court and they've beat us on their's. So then it goes to either division or conference record. That's where I think we might be screwed.

We just have to flat out win more games than them to guarantee the 3rd spot. Otherwise, I see us getting the 4th seed.

Either way, we make the Playoffs. Guaranteed.
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We need a few more streaks like the one we're currently on.
 
FWIW, Hollinger's playoff odds lists Portland second in the west with a 99.3% probability of making the playoffs, 54.1% chance of winning the division, and 16.5% chance of getting to the finals - better than any other team except the Lakers.
 
The Hornets are now 28-17.

Of their 37 remaining games, they have 18 home games and 19 road games. Of their 18 home games, they play Chicago, Minnesota (twice), Toronto, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Memphis, and Golden State. That's 8 of the 18 home games that are locks in my opinion for them. The other 10 games are against Boston, Orlando, Detroit, Dallas (twice), Houston, Denver, San Antonio, Utah, and Phoenix. Now a lot depends on the health of Chris Paul, but assuming he's back for these games and 100%, I see the Hornets doing this:

I see losses against the Celtics, Suns (the Hornets will have just played in Miami the night before), and the Spurs. I see victories against the Magic (although the Hornets will have just played against OKC, the Magic will have played against the Bobcats), the Pistons (they'll have just played in Miami the night before), both games against Dallas (one of which Dallas will have just played San Antonio), the Rockets, the Nuggets, and the Jazz. It's realistic that they'll only lose three of those ten final home games against upper-tier teams.

Now, of the 19 road games they'll win in Memphis and Oklahoma City. They have a 3-game trip against the Lakers, Jazz, and Kings. They'll likely lose to the Lakers and the Jazz (these are back-to-backs) and go 1-2 on this trip. They have a two-game back-to-back against the Nets and Sixers. I see them winning the first game but not the next. They have a 4-game trip against the Hawks, Wizards, Bucks, and Bulls. They'll like lose to Atlanta and the Bulls (the Chicago game is a back-to-back) and go 2-2. They visit NYC on the road. They'll win. They have a 3-game trip to Sac, the Clipps, and Golden State. They should win all of those except the back-to-back against the Clipps - 2-1. They go to Miami and probably win. They go to Dallas and probably lose. The end the season with a two-game trip to Houston and San Antonio. Odds are they lose those - 0-2.

So their road record looks like it would be 10-9.

If this all happens they'll have a 53-29 record. It's amazing how tight these Playoff races could get.

That's still not enough for them to catch the Spurs IMO. They'll be fighting with Denver or us for the 4th spot. We have already split the season series against the Hornets, so it could come down to Conference Record, which we have one more loss then them.

I still see Portland winning the division and getting 3rd. If we don't though, we may not own the tie breaker. Either way though, we get the 3rd, 4th, or 5th seed. I just don't see us dropping to 6 or catching 2.
 
Unfortunately we don't get to play Orlando again. Denver and New Orleans do. Add a victory more than likely to their records and we probably fall to 5th. Oh well.
 
Crimson the Cat said:
Unfortunately we don't get to play Orlando again. Denver and New Orleans do. Add a victory more than likely to their records and we probably fall to 5th. Oh well.
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we should've swept orlando!!

btw i think it would be huge to get homecourt advantage. i think we would get out of the first if we did have homecourt advantage
 
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