Is it too soon to talk about defensive rating?

[BonesJones]

Has your stance on who was/is most responsible for the bad defense changed since a couple years ago?

I think you've made a strong case we had a system/group 5 years ago that was top 10, but obviously it went downhill from there and despite a large roster change and a coaching change, we're still near the bottom of the league.

No, why would anything happening now change what Ive seen in the past?

I call what I see, I don't make guesses then change my mind on a whim. Stotts never adjusted and ran the most basic and uncreative stuff on both sides of the floor. Nothing that happens this year could make it so that wasn't true.

 

[wizenheimer]

My stance has been that the NBA shifted drastically towards 3 pointers since we were last a decent defensive team, and we have never adequately adapted. A while back I went and looked and a shit ton of teams starting jacking up threes at an insane rate about 5 years ago. Started with Houston and Golden State and then just snowballed. Now all teams do it. And we have been absolutely ass at defending the three.

I'm curious about your claim so I'll look at some numbers; they will be highest avg 3ptFG's made -->.median avg made. I'll go back 10 years

2013-14 --> 9.5 --> 8.0
2014-15 --> 11.4 --> 7.8
2015-16 --> 13.1 --> 8.5
2016-17 --> 14.4 --> 9.3
2017-18 --> 15.3 --> 10.5
2018-19 --> 16.1 --> 11.3
2019-20 --> 15.6 --> 12.1
2020-21 --> 16.7 --> 12.8
2021-22 --> 14.8 --> 12.2
2022-23 --> 16.4 --> 11.8

ok...the first thing is after I got into it a bit I realized it would have been better if my first number had been the median between the 2nd & 3rd place teams in three's made. That's because more often than not, the team that led the league led by a significant margin over 2nd and 3rd. For instance, in 2018-19, Houston made 2.6 more three's than the 2nd place team, while that 2nd place team only had a 0.7 gap between 5th, and a 2.2 gap between 16th

so, I'd tend to put more stock in the median which I simply averaged between 15th and 16th. And you're right, in the eight years between 2013-14 and 2020-21, the conversion mark increased 60%. That's pretty significant, although the drop from 12.8 two years ago to 11.8 this year is curious

I'm thinking though that this may be off-point a bit. Since the NBA has become three-happy, to analyze properly you'd probably need to test a correlation between 3ptFG defense and playoff success

but with that in mind, if 3pt defense is more important, than the discussion about 2 shorter guards seems a bit misplaced. It would seem that perimeter defensive rotations and defensive schemes become more important than perimeter length. I'm not downgrading the importance of length because it is a factor, but I'd say closest defender was much more important than closest taller defender. It's more important to have a 6'3 guy 3 feet from the shooter than a 6'7 guy 6 feet from the defender. Very few three's get blocked anyway

 

[Tince]

No, why would anything happening now change what Ive seen in the past?

I call what I see, I don't make guesses then change my mind on a whim. Stotts never adjusted and ran the most basic and uncreative stuff on both sides of the floor. Nothing that happens this year could make it so that wasn't true.

I thought maybe now that some of the changes you wanted have happened, and you have more information, but the results haven't improved as your predicted, that you might be open to changing your stance. I certainly wouldn't call it changing on a whim.

Doesn't look like it though. All good!

 

[Tince]

My stance has been that the NBA shifted drastically towards 3 pointers since we were last a decent defensive team, and we have never adequately adapted. A while back I went and looked and a shit ton of teams starting jacking up threes at an insane rate about 5 years ago. Started with Houston and Golden State and then just snowballed. Now all teams do it. And we have been absolutely ass at defending the three.

Very much good be the case. Why do you think the Blazers franchise hasn't adapated? Given that we've changed a lot of the roster, GM, and coaching staff in that period.

 

[Natebishop3]

Very much good be the case. Why do you think the Blazers franchise hasn't adapated? Given that we've changed a lot of the roster, GM, and coaching staff in that period.

One reason is our horrific defense of the corner three. CJ especially was horrible at defending the corner. Not sure if it was being lazy, or just lackadaisical (holy shit I spelled that right on the first try!) but so many times I saw CJ in the paint with his man in the corner giving up the wide open three.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I really think it's the toxic combination of two small sub par defensive guards and an immobile center and then no height after that slow center. I never thought that Dame, CJ and Nurk could work to give us consistently good defense and I don't think that Dame, Ant and Nurk can either.

Well, at least we don't have those 3 all locked up to massive contracts........ Oh no, we gave them all how much last summer?

 

[Tince]

One reason is our horrific defense of the corner three. CJ especially was horrible at defending the corner. Not sure if it was being lazy, or just lackadaisical (holy shit I spelled that right on the first try!) but so many times I saw CJ in the paint with his man in the corner giving up the wide open three.

I also agree with this. Now CJ has been gone for 50 games and it doesn't appear to have changed things a ton, so it has to be more than CJ, right?

 

[Natebishop3]

I also agree with this. Now CJ has been gone for 50 games and it doesn't appear to have changed things a ton, so it has to be more than CJ, right?

You have seen my entire thread equating Dame/Ant to Dame/CJ, right?

 

[blazerfan11]

It's too bad Keon hasn't been able to play. I watched some of the earlier games and he was right up in the faces of 3-point shooters.

 

[blazerkor]

I also agree with this. Now CJ has been gone for 50 games and it doesn't appear to have changed things a ton, so it has to be more than CJ, right?

I guess the real culprit is a lack of size except when it comes to the real culprit which is that the one guy we have with size is the least mobile player starting in the league... and then again when you look behind him on the bench, there's no other guy with any fucking size.

This isn't some sort of conundrum. There are plenty of huge people playing basketball that can move as fast as an athlete needs to in order to defend in the modern NBA... we just don't have any of those people on this roster. You don't have to choose between playing a unit with everyone under 6'10" or not being able to guard the three. Plenty of teams do both and there are options out there for us to be able to do the same. I don't know if adding two legit bigs that can defend the perimeter and recover to defend the paint is doable this season but I think it could be done by next season and if moving Nurk isn't the answer then the answer is moving other pieces in order to make Nurk a situational player instead of a foundational piece. Nurk isn't BroLo both Lopez's move a helluva lot better than our guy. I realize he can defend the paint but that is all he can do on defense and he isn't even elite at that, really good but not elite.

 

[Hoopguru]

It's too bad Keon hasn't been able to play. I watched some of the earlier games and he was right up in the faces of 3-point shooters.

Yes he was and he was picking guys up full court. He, Hart & The Mitt are our best back court defensive players, hands down. Sharpe in time will be part of that group as well.

 

[Tince]

I guess the real culprit is a lack of size except when it comes to the real culprit which is that the one guy we have with size is the least mobile player starting in the league... and then again when you look behind him on the bench, there's no other guy with any fucking size.

This isn't some sort of conundrum. There are plenty of huge people playing basketball that can move as fast as an athlete needs to in order to defend in the modern NBA... we just don't have any of those people on this roster. You don't have to choose between playing a unit with everyone under 6'10" or not being able to guard the three. Plenty of teams do both and there are options out there for us to be able to do the same. I don't know if adding two legit bigs that can defend the perimeter and recover to defend the paint is doable this season but I think it could be done by next season and if moving Nurk isn't the answer then the answer is moving other pieces in order to make Nurk a situational player instead of a foundational piece. Nurk isn't BroLo both Lopez's move a helluva lot better than our guy. I realize he can defend the paint but that is all he can do on defense and he isn't even elite at that, really good but not elite.

I tend to agree with what you're saying. This was very close to my stance 3-4 years ago as well and why I was less optimistic Billups could come in and make drastic changes, though I think he's tried to do just that.

 

[andalusian]

If the problem wasn't Dame/CJ, it isn't Dame/Ant, and it wasn't the coaching... what is the cause?

It's always been the personnel around the back-court. Terry had good defensive teams when there were good, long, athletic defenders at the wings. The Blazers once again have that (well, Grant is long), but Nurk is not as good as he was before his injuries and Terry played to his strength which Chauncy does not as much.

I suspect that if this teams gets healthy again (Hart + GP2 + Justise + Grant) - the defense will pick up a little. Of course, a mobile athletic big for the center position would really benefit the scheme Chauncy wants to run, as good as Nurk can be on defense - he really benefited from the drop-coverage Terry ran to mask his mobility issues.

 

[Tince]

It's always been the personnel around the back-court. Terry had good defensive teams when there were good, long, athletic defenders at the wings. The Blazers once again have that (well, Grant is long), but Nurk is not as good as he was before his injuries and Terry played to his strength which Chauncy does not as much.

I suspect that if this teams gets healthy again (Hart + GP2 + Justise + Grant) - the defense will pick up a little. Of course, a mobile athletic big for the center position would really benefit the scheme Chauncy wants to run, as good as Nurk can be on defense - he really benefited from the drop-coverage Terry ran to mask his mobility issues.

There are a lot of people here who won't agree with your first paragraph... I'm not one of those people.

 

[wizenheimer]

..... Of course, a mobile athletic big for the center position would really benefit the scheme Chauncy wants to run, as good as Nurk can be on defense - he really benefited from the drop-coverage Terry ran to mask his mobility issues.

the year that Portland finished 8th in the league in defense, they had Ed Davis and Zach as the bench bigs, and they almost always played at the same time. I don't think back court length is very important, nice bu not necessary. But front court length is still very important, and so is some length at wing

 

[Natebishop3]

the year that Portland finished 8th in the league in defense, they had Ed Davis and Zach as the bench bigs, and they almost always played at the same time. I don't think back court length is very important, nice bu not necessary. But front court length is still very important, and so is some length at wing

If Zach could have stayed healthy, he'd still be here.

 

[HailBlazers]

If Zach could have stayed healthy, he'd still be here.

We need a third rim protector, bad.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

We need a third rim protector, bad.

I kinda think they need a second one. Drew brings energy and he does get some blocks but just not really a rim protector. Nurk is kind of off and on at times as well but he does have a bigger presence around the rim.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I kinda think they need a second one. Drew brings energy and he does get some blocks but just not really a rim protector. Nurk is kind of off and on at times as well but he does have a bigger presence around the rim.

where is nerlin noels(sp?)at these days? Can we snag him on the cheap?

 

[wizenheimer]

I kinda think they need a second one. Drew brings energy and he does get some blocks but just not really a rim protector. Nurk is kind of off and on at times as well but he does have a bigger presence around the rim.

I think Eubanks is more of a rim protector than Nurkic while Nurkic is a better man-defender in the paint.

but having another rim-protector will have less impact if the Blazers continue to use lots of zone defense and also continue to switch constantly in their man defense. How many times were Nurkic and Eubanks switched onto Russell and Edwards out near the arc last night?....geeeezuz

by the way, if I'm reading this right, within 6 feet of the basket Nurkic gives up an opponent FG% of 63.2%; Eubanks gives up 53.2%. Inside of 10 feet it's Nurkic at 58.6%; Eubanks at 53.5% (sort by team)

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt10

I'm a little skeptical of those numbers because I'm not sure how accurately they track zone defense, switches, and defensive rotations. My guess is probably not very accurately.

 

[wizenheimer]

where is nerlin noels(sp?)at these days? Can we snag him on the cheap?

he's in Detroit filling up his stat sheets with DNP's, reportedly because of knee issues. Only 62 minute in 6 games this year so far

he wouldn't be cheap because he has a 9.2M salary

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

What about the games we didn't have two small guards? That wasn't better. Dame was our best perimeter defender last night. Nurk has been really solid defensively this year. The Dame, CJ, and Nurk pairing finished in the top 10 defensively before.

Then maybe just Simons needs to go. I saw him play really hard on defense for the first five minute, but not much after that.

 

[HansenYang]

he's in Detroit filling up his stat sheets with DNP's, reportedly because of knee issues. Only 62 minute in 6 games this year so far

he wouldn't be cheap because he has a 9.2M salary

And that $9.2M salary would be very difficult for Portland to trade for.

Could trade Hart.... but why would Portland do that? (unless other assets come back)
Could trade GPII.... but that would push Portland into the Lux Tax, costing the Blazers to miss out on a $12M distribution from other Lux Tax teams
Could trade Little + Winslow.... but again that would push Portland into the Lux Tax.

 

[illmatic99]

Noel at ~4 mil is a good target. Noel at 9 mil is not. I think that's a negative contract and would have to have assets attached to take on.

 

[wizenheimer]

And that $9.2M salary would be very difficult for Portland to trade for.

Could trade Hart.... but why would Portland do that? (unless other assets come back)
Could trade GPII.... but that would push Portland into the Lux Tax, costing the Blazers to miss out on a $12M distribution from other Lux Tax teams
Could trade Little + Winslow.... but again that would push Portland into the Lux Tax.

Payton + Brown works from Portland's end, and keeps them under the tax. But Detroit appears to have 15 players under contract so it wouldn't work from their end

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Javale McGee wouldn't be a terrible target as a backup rim protector (if it's determined we need one). He's fallen out of favor in Dallas, but he's still efficient in the few minutes he plays.

 

[HailBlazers]

I think Eubanks is more of a rim protector than Nurkic while Nurkic is a better man-defender in the paint.

but having another rim-protector will have less impact if the Blazers continue to use lots of zone defense and also continue to switch constantly in their man defense. How many times were Nurkic and Eubanks switched onto Russell and Edwards out near the arc last night?....geeeezuz

by the way, if I'm reading this right, within 6 feet of the basket Nurkic gives up an opponent FG% of 63.2%; Eubanks gives up 53.2%. Inside of 10 feet it's Nurkic at 58.6%; Eubanks at 53.5% (sort by team)

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt10

I'm a little skeptical of those numbers because I'm not sure how accurately they track zone defense, switches, and defensive rotations. My guess is probably not very accurately.

Perhaps but Eubanks is more often playing against the second string.

 

[wizenheimer]

Perhaps but Eubanks is more often playing against the second string.

maybe...probably?....but it does seem that C rotations are the least predictable of any position; probably because of foul situations

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

he's in Detroit filling up his stat sheets with DNP's, reportedly because of knee issues. Only 62 minute in 6 games this year so far

he wouldn't be cheap because he has a 9.2M salary

He was the first guy i thought of who might realistically be feasible and have a real impact.
You just shit on both of those thoughts. Thanks alot!

THATS how you kill two birds with one stone!

 

[BankTeller]

Payton + Brown works from Portland's end, and keeps them under the tax. But Detroit appears to have 15 players under contract so it wouldn't work from their end

If we were going to trade GPII, I’d rather do a 3-way deal where we see how much GSW really wants him back and get the whatever young guys we can and send them to DET and get either Stewart or Bey back, preferably Bey.

I can’t think of any Villanova guys that got drafted who aren’t at least solid role players.