Is it too soon to talk about defensive rating?

[THE HCP]

Premature? They might still find a way to get into the playoffs this season. Lets let them play the games and see if they can get into the Play-in.
Never count Lillard out.

Hope it happens, but I’m already booking work for other clients.

 

[Tince]

Dunleavy had a lot of talent on his last Blazer team

but he took this team to the playoffs too:

View attachment 53694

pretty comparable to some of the better Stotts teams

and of course, the was PJ and Schuler going 5 for 5 in playoff seeding

I was never a big "fire Stotts!" guy, I was a fire Olshey guy, but the last 2 or 3 years of the Stotts tenure in Portland I thought were 2 or 3 years too long

That Dunleavy team got outsted pretty easily in the 1st round, right?

If PJ or Schuler got to the WCF with any of their rosters, I would also be banging the drum that they over-archieved. There are very few WCF rosters in the last 30 years that were worse than the 18-19 Blazers.

 

[Tince]

The same as it ever was... Worst in the league among teams trying to win. Who could've seen this coming?

 

[Fairly-Hard]

The same as it ever was... Worst in the league among teams trying to win. Who could've seen this coming?

View attachment 53969

It will trend upwards the rest of the season. It's going to be hard to move that percentage up for the entire season.
My bet is they are in the upper half for the last 24 games if Nurk can stay healthy and they can get solid defensive minutes from the new guys. This kind of depends how longs Simons is out as well?

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

This is ridiculous. Someone care to add up the number of games our plus defenders have missed this season and provide some context?

How anyone expects our defense to improve when our best defenders have missed many games this season is mind boggling.

 

[andalusian]

This is ridiculous. Someone care to add up the number of games our plus defenders have missed this season and provide some context?

How anyone expects our defense to improve when our best defenders have missed many games this season is mind boggling.

It's not just that. Of course GP2 being out 3/4 of the games and not being his own self had an impact, same with Justise missing 1/2 of the games.

Hart however missed a very small number of available games.

But, It is also roster construction and misuse of the roster.

Even if these 2 and Nurkic were available, the Blazers would still be undersized - and their defensive rebound rate % is in the lower third of the league, your defense will go down if you give opposing teams additional options to extend possessions after misses, and the amount of time Dame and Ant play together means that the Blazers are vulnerable to switches from multiple positions. Add the fact that the bench is very young, young players, even if they have the athletic ability and will are prone to mistakes, we have seen it over and over with Shae, Jabari and Trendon playing even tho all 3 I am sure will be fine defenders as they mature, both Shae and Trendon have already shown willingness to work on this aspect of their game and Shae, especially, has the tools to be an elite defender.

Finally, Nurkic missed 50% of the games, but unfortunately, in the other 50% of the games we played him in switching defense or 2-3 zone instead of in drop-coverage that plays to his advantage.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

(in comparison to the league at that time)

Wait a minute there! Now you're saying it might not be such a reach to look at how strong the rest ot the league is when comparing coaches?

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

It's not just that. Of course GP2 being out 3/4 of the games and not being his own self had an impact, same with Justise missing 1/2 of the games.

Hart however missed a very small number of available games.

But, It is also roster construction and misuse of the roster.

Even if these 2 and Nurkic were available, the Blazers would still be undersized - and their defensive rebound rate % is in the lower third of the league, your defense will go down if you give opposing teams additional options to extend possessions after misses, and the amount of time Dame and Ant play together means that the Blazers are vulnerable to switches from multiple positions. Add the fact that the bench is very young, young players, even if they have the athletic ability and will are prone to mistakes, we have seen it over and over with Shae, Jabari and Trendon playing even tho all 3 I am sure will be fine defenders as they mature, both Shae and Trendon have already shown willingness to work on this aspect of their game and Shae, especially, has the tools to be an elite defender.

Finally, Nurkic missed 50% of the games, but unfortunately, in the other 50% of the games we played him in switching defense or 2-3 zone instead of in drop-coverage that plays to his advantage.

Team defense and cohesion gets seriously compromised when the best defenders miss significant minutes.
We have not had the opportunity to build cohesion, thus our defense is inconsistent.
Regardless of size ( and i do agree we are smaller, though slightly bigger after the deadline) im 100% confident our defense would be better if we had remained healthy and maintained a consistent rotation.

oh yeah fuck gp2

 

[Tince]

It will trend upwards the rest of the season. It's going to be hard to move that percentage up for the entire season.
My bet is they are in the upper half for the last 24 games if Nurk can stay healthy and they can get solid defensive minutes from the new guys. This kind of depends how longs Simons is out as well?

You would think it would improve from 27th, given at least 6 teams will be actively trying to lose. Would be hard for us to drop below 27th, I would think.

Thybulle should help, Nurk should help. Sharpe's increased minutes will hurt. Top 15 the rest of the season seems optimistic to me, but I could be wrong.

 

[Tince]

Wait a minute there! Now you're saying it might not be such a reach to look at how strong the rest ot the league is when comparing coaches?

I'm not sure what you're getting at, but I'll take your word for it! Comparing "talent" in totally different eras is difficult to do with raw data. Not as difficult when rosters only a couple years apart.

For the record (again). I don't hate Billups, I didn't buy the "anyone would be a big improvement on defense over Stotts" stance, I thought Dunleavy was a good coach. Like Stotts defensive coaching abilities, I felt the reason Dunleavy had success from 98-00 was because his roster got to be really good.

 

[Tince]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-teams-defensive-rating-this-season-by-month-february-2023

 

[TBpup]

The same as it ever was... Worst in the league among teams trying to win. Who could've seen this coming?

View attachment 53969

Most of the better teams, some of their best players are good defenders. That has rarely been the case with Portland. We ask our worst players to cover up for our best players so it is flawed from the start. Yes, there are going to be exceptions and some people might be upset for pointing out the obvious, but we are stuck in the same rut we have been for years. Too small, with too many players that shoot a lot but don't play much defense. It is out of balance from the start. Even Grant is said to be better as a help defender than as an on-ball defender.

Thybulle is a nice addition and I already like him better than Payton, but again, he is a peripheral player. We need more players who are well balanced and not so one dimensional either offensively or defensively.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I'm not sure what you're getting at, but I'll take your word for it! Comparing "talent" in totally different eras is difficult to do with raw data. Not as difficult when rosters only a couple years apart.

For the record (again). I don't hate Billups, I didn't buy the "anyone would be a big improvement on defense over Stotts" stance, I thought Dunleavy was a good coach. Like Stotts defensive coaching abilities, I felt the reason Dunleavy had success from 98-00 was because his roster got to be really good.

I actually liked Dunlevy because he would make Sheed post up.

 

[Tince]

Most of the better teams, some of their best players are good defenders. That has rarely been the case with Portland. We ask our worst players to cover up for our best players so it is flawed from the start. Yes, there are going to be exceptions and some people might be upset for pointing out the obvious, but we are stuck in the same rut we have been for years. Too small, with too many players that shoot a lot but don't play much defense. It is out of balance from the start. Even Grant is said to be better as a help defender than as an on-ball defender.

Thybulle is a nice addition and I already like him better than Payton, but again, he is a peripheral player. We need more players who are well balanced and not so one dimensional either offensively or defensively.

I agree... Roster players by far the biggest role in a team being good at defense.

 

[Tince]

I actually liked Dunlevy because he would make Sheed post up.

Sheed was so good. Could get his shot off whenever he wanted (sometimes getting him to want to shoot was an issue) and was an elite defender. When Portland would put out a lineup of Greg Anthony, Pippen, Augmon, Sheed, and Sabonis, there were no easy buckets!

Dunleavy was given a roster with so much size and shooting; he would just hunt mismatches and force teams to double. Simple, but genius.

 

[Samuel]

It's not just that. Of course GP2 being out 3/4 of the games and not being his own self had an impact, same with Justise missing 1/2 of the games.

Hart however missed a very small number of available games.

But, It is also roster construction and misuse of the roster.

Even if these 2 and Nurkic were available, the Blazers would still be undersized - and their defensive rebound rate % is in the lower third of the league, your defense will go down if you give opposing teams additional options to extend possessions after misses, and the amount of time Dame and Ant play together means that the Blazers are vulnerable to switches from multiple positions. Add the fact that the bench is very young, young players, even if they have the athletic ability and will are prone to mistakes, we have seen it over and over with Shae, Jabari and Trendon playing even tho all 3 I am sure will be fine defenders as they mature, both Shae and Trendon have already shown willingness to work on this aspect of their game and Shae, especially, has the tools to be an elite defender.

Finally, Nurkic missed 50% of the games, but unfortunately, in the other 50% of the games we played him in switching defense or 2-3 zone instead of in drop-coverage that plays to his advantage.

I think some of the issue here is that the dual-track path that Cronin/Jody have chosen means there are raw development players at the back end of the roster being forced into rotation minutes. And the Blazers draft/trade target strategy has been ‘athleticism upside guy’ over ‘shooting/defense guy’ for the past few seasons, so when Chauncey goes to the bench it’s yackity sax defensively.

 

[andalusian]

I think some of the issue here is that the dual-track path that Cronin/Jody have chosen means there are raw development players at the back end of the roster being forced into rotation minutes. And the Blazers draft/trade target strategy has been ‘athleticism upside guy’ over ‘shooting/defense guy’ for the past few seasons, so when Chauncey goes to the bench it’s yackity sax defensively.

Not just.

The starting unit of Dame, Ant, Hart, Grant and Nurkic had a -0.5 net rating.

in the last year of Terry Stotts, not an amazing defensive coach by any measue, the starting unit of Dame, CJ, Powell, RoCo and Nurk had an amazing net rating of +13.4

This all on a system, not roster. Because on paper, even if Ant is not as good a defender as CJ is, Hart, Grant should be better than Powell, Roco to overcome whatever deficiency there is there.

 

[Samuel]

This all on a system, not roster.

Not letting Billups off the hook at all—he’s a 2nd year coach struggling with <whatever it is he’s trying to do, who knows>; I’m just saying that after the first 7ish guys on the team, it’s a bunch of developmental guys who are either not good defensively to begin with, or are so green that they’re constantly out of position or late in getting where they need to be. The second part of the equation after the starters is that Portland has the worst bench in the league.

 

[Tince]

This has to help where the Blazers rank in defensive rating.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Great song lyrics to describe the Blazers

same as it ever was

meet the new boss, same as the old boss

Round and round