Is Lillard our MVP?

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
BrianFromWA

BrianFromWA

Editor in Chief
Staff member
Editor in Chief
Joined
Sep 9, 2008
Messages
26,096
Likes
9,073
Points
113
Splits in wins v. losses:

Wins: 15.6 FGA/g, 40.3% FG%, 41.9% 3pt%, 20ppg/6ast/4reb
Losses: 18.0 FGA/g, 48.1% FG%, 50.6% 3pt%, 27/4/3. :wow:

As I showed in the L-Train thread, LMA isn't appreciably better or worse in wins or losses, aside from his rebounding is 12rpg in wins and 8.6 in losses. Dame, however, seems to play best when everyone else is crap and he feels the need to just take over.

His shooting has improved as the year's gone on:

NOV: 38.8% FG, 38.4% 3pt, 91% FT
DEC: 43.9% FG, 47.2% 3pt, 88.5% FT
JAN: 45.2%, FG, 48.9% 3pt, 90.5% FT

He's currently shooting 7 shots less per game than LMA.

Other W/L splits:
Batum:
W: 10.6 FGA/g, 48% FG%, 40% 3pt 13.6/6.6/5.7
L: 10.4 FGA/g, 38% FG%, 23% 3pt 12.3/7.2/5.8

Wes:
W: 12.1 FGA/g, 50.0% FG% 46.1% 3pt% 17.6/4/2.3
L: 11.2 FGA/g, 39.6% FG%, 29.8% 3pt% 13.2/4.9/2.6

Damian's only shooting 0.5 FGA/g more, but he's almost 4pts/36min better.
 
Damian's only shooting 0.5 FGA/g more, but he's almost 4pts/36min better.
Click to expand...

This seems contradictory based on the splits you showed at the top of your post.

Regardless, it's an interesting statistic/phenomena.
 
I'm unsure how him playing better when we lose makes him the team MVP, exactly? Or at least am missing apparently the angle you're going for. He definitely tends to try to step up his game when things aren't going well with everyone else, but that looks like it generally doesn't lead to wins. If the numbers were reversed, I can see a strong case for it.
 
RR7 said:
I'm unsure how him playing better when we lose makes him the team MVP, exactly? Or at least am missing apparently the angle you're going for. He definitely tends to try to step up his game when things aren't going well with everyone else, but that looks like it generally doesn't lead to wins. If the numbers were reversed, I can see a strong case for it.
Click to expand...

Well, I think Brian is trying to say that LA plays about the same regardless of wins or losses, so there's no evidence of him trying to step up his game when the team is doing badly. The stats he listed, however, show that Lillard plays much harder/better(?) when the team is doing poorly. I can attest that I've seen Lillard put the team on his back when they aren't playing well. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but he definitely seems to be the one who takes it upon himself to generate scoring when the team is cold.
 
Nikolokolus said:
This seems contradictory based on the splits you showed at the top of your post.

Regardless, it's an interesting statistic/phenomena.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I meant over last year with the 0.5 FGA - to 4 points per 36 increase.
 
Last edited:
As I said in another thread the starters play slightly better with Mo Williams in place of Lillard so I'm not sure how you can be in the discussion as the teams best player when the team succeeds without you.

The team without LaMarcus isn't close to what they are with him. All the worst +/- rankings for the year are with him out of the game. Its like taking Olajuwon off the Rockets title teams. Yes Kenny Smith, Cassel and Horry were insane from 3's but that was because of the big guy.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Well, I think Brian is trying to say that LA plays about the same regardless of wins or losses, so there's no evidence of him trying to step up his game when the team is doing badly. The stats he listed, however, show that Lillard plays much harder/better(?) when the team is doing poorly. I can attest that I've seen Lillard put the team on his back when they aren't playing well. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but he definitely seems to be the one who takes it upon himself to generate scoring when the team is cold.
Click to expand...


I agree, I've definitely seen it as well. We all have, or, just not watching. But it seems that when he tries to carry us to wins, well, it doesn't happen. We're 1-4 this year when he scores over 30, 0-5 last season.

I know it's often because he waits to push until the 4th, sees nobody else is doing anything,a nd then tries to take over. Unfortunately, he waits too long. By design or I dunno, but his uptick in play isn't resulting in wins.

So you can look at LMA and say he isn't the MVP, because there's no noticeable increase in performance(though I'd say the big rebounding disparity says otherwise), but I don't see how you can look then to someone with a negative correlation in increased statistics and record and say he's the true MVP. The argument would make sense to me in an as goes so and so, so goes the team. But it's the reverse with Dame. The stats shown would argue more that Wes having a good night seems to be the most important to our team success.
 
RR7 said:
I'm unsure how him playing better when we lose makes him the team MVP, exactly? Or at least am missing apparently the angle you're going for. He definitely tends to try to step up his game when things aren't going well with everyone else, but that looks like it generally doesn't lead to wins. If the numbers were reversed, I can see a strong case for it.
Click to expand...

I guess I was saying that the only time that it seems (eye test) that Lillard asserts himself on the floor and makes himself the #1 option is when he feels it's needed and we're down, and he starts destroying people at a level never before seen in NBA history (no one has averaged 27ppg on >50% 3pt shooting). If he was to start with that mindset, and maybe reverse the 23FGA to 17FGA disparity he has with LMA (who is less efficient as he shoots more), what may happen?
 
BrianFromWA said:
I guess I was saying that the only time that it seems (eye test) that Lillard asserts himself on the floor and makes himself the #1 option is when he feels it's needed and we're down, and he starts destroying people at a level never before seen in NBA history (no one has averaged 27ppg on >50% 3pt shooting)
Click to expand...

But you don't win MVP if you have a .100 winning percentage with those numbers.
 
Aldridge sees small increases in FG%, FT%, TS%, USG, points, rebounds and assists in wins. As well as a 10 point increase in ORTG. Lillard sees the increase going the opposite way for most, except rebounds and assists.
It could be more that Aldridge isn't necessarily asserting himself more in wins, but just playing poorly in losses, but I don't see how being more assertive in losses makes someone team MVP.
 
Draco said:
As I said in another thread the starters play slightly better with Mo Williams in place of Lillard so I'm not sure how you can be in the discussion as the teams best player when the team succeeds without you.

The team without LaMarcus isn't close to what they are with him. All the worst +/- rankings for the year are with him out of the game. Its like taking Olajuwon off the Rockets title teams. Yes Kenny Smith, Cassel and Horry were insane from 3's but that was because of the big guy.
Click to expand...

Where are you getting that? Didn't Jaynes link a stat that said the the team played it's worst with Mo on the floor?
 
As to the question of whether or not he's our MVP. No, I don't think so ... but I do think he is our most explosive/dynamic player.
 
Maybe its more important for a PG to pass than to shoot?
 
Natebishop3 said:
Where are you getting that? Didn't Jaynes link a stat that said the the team played it's worst with Mo on the floor?
Click to expand...

Jaynes is an idiot. Mo plays a ton of minutes with other reserves so lineups with TRob and Wright have terrible metrics.

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314POR2.HTM

The starters outscore the opposition by 11 points. With Mo in place of Lillard they outscore the opposition by 19 points.
 
Draco said:
Jaynes is an idiot. Mo plays a ton of minutes with other reserves so lineups with TRob and Wright have terrible metrics.

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314POR2.HTM

The starters outscore the opposition by 11 points. With Mo in place of Lillard they outscore the opposition by 19 points.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I can read too.

The team is a net -7.0 with Williams right now.

Lillard is a net +7.1 so I don't see how your argument is holding any water. The team plays better without Williams in the lineup.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Yeah, I can read too.

The team is a net -7.0 with Williams right now.

Lillard is a net +7.1 so I don't see how your argument is holding any water. The team plays better without Williams in the lineup.
Click to expand...

All net +/- stats for a team equal zero; its a meaningless stat. Durant and Ibaka have negative net +/- too.
 
Based on what they are asked to do, and what skills other teammates others bring to the table, I think Lamarcus would be more difficult to replace than Lillard. However, I also think that based on that logic, I might argue that Batum is more valuable to the team, based on current roster composition, than either DL or LA.
 
Draco said:
Jaynes is an idiot. Mo plays a ton of minutes with other reserves so lineups with TRob and Wright have terrible metrics.
Click to expand...
Mo has only played 32 minutes all year without Lillard and LMA (coincides with his time with Wright and TRob). The vast majority of the time (every minute but 32) Mo plays with the other 4 starters or with Lillard. Conversely, when Lillard isn't with the starters he is most often with 3+ bench players (including Mo)--all but 52 minutes.

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314POR2.HTM

The starters outscore the opposition by 11 points. With Mo in place of Lillard they outscore the opposition by 19 points.[/QUOTE]

I grant that point.
 
I don't believe Mo is better than Lillard. But the unit with the second most minutes is with Mo in place of Damian and the team has surprisingly been more effective.

I believe Aldridge is better than Lillard. Could you imagine a unit with TRob or Freeland in place of Aldridge for tons of minutes being just as effective as the starters? No way in hell.
 
If Lillard is the MVP and his production improved by the month, wouldn't the overall record show it?

It looks to me like LMA is the clear MVP. The big factor, as you pointed out, is his newfound aggressiveness for rebounds.

If Batum is truly running the team, then you should consider that big change in how the team is working and winning.
 
BrianFromWA said:
Splits in wins v. losses:

Wins: 15.6 FGA/g, 40.3% FG%, 41.9% 3pt%, 20ppg/6ast/4reb
Losses: 18.0 FGA/g, 48.1% FG%, 50.6% 3pt%, 27/4/3. :wow:

As I showed in the L-Train thread, LMA isn't appreciably better or worse in wins or losses, aside from his rebounding is 12rpg in wins and 8.6 in losses. Dame, however, seems to play best when everyone else is crap and he feels the need to just take over.

His shooting has improved as the year's gone on:

NOV: 38.8% FG, 38.4% 3pt, 91% FT
DEC: 43.9% FG, 47.2% 3pt, 88.5% FT
JAN: 45.2%, FG, 48.9% 3pt, 90.5% FT

He's currently shooting 7 shots less per game than LMA.

Other W/L splits:
Batum:
W: 10.6 FGA/g, 48% FG%, 40% 3pt 13.6/6.6/5.7
L: 10.4 FGA/g, 38% FG%, 23% 3pt 12.3/7.2/5.8

Wes:
W: 12.1 FGA/g, 50.0% FG% 46.1% 3pt% 17.6/4/2.3
L: 11.2 FGA/g, 39.6% FG%, 29.8% 3pt% 13.2/4.9/2.6

Damian's only shooting 0.5 FGA/g more, but he's almost 4pts/36min better.
Click to expand...

Not yet, but his time will come. Kobe had to buy his time with Shaq. Damian will buy his time with LA. This is LA's team.

Someone said it above. The more Damian scores or has to score probably doesn't equate to the best of news for Portland. Interestingly if LA scores and I'm also going to throw rebounds in, a lot it usually means or at least it has meant this way this year, he is willing his team to victory with success.
 
Draco said:
I don't believe Mo is better than Lillard. But the unit with the second most minutes is with Mo in place of Damian and the team has surprisingly been more effective.

I believe Aldridge is better than Lillard. Could you imagine a unit with TRob or Freeland in place of Aldridge for tons of minutes being just as effective as the starters? No way in hell.
Click to expand...

The sample size is more than 7x less. At most, I think you could say they've been about the same.
 
I would think LaMarcus' apparent consistency game in and game out would make his case for MVP stronger, not weaker.
 
Draco said:
Per 100 possessions; The starters score 117 to opponents 106.

With Mo in place of Lillard they score 115 to 96.
Click to expand...

With Mo in the game, it's also likely the other team is sitting its' starting PG at that moment, if not other starters.
 
BrianFromWA said:
Splits in wins v. losses:

Wins: 15.6 FGA/g, 40.3% FG%, 41.9% 3pt%, 20ppg/6ast/4reb
Losses: 18.0 FGA/g, 48.1% FG%, 50.6% 3pt%, 27/4/3. :wow:

As I showed in the L-Train thread, LMA isn't appreciably better or worse in wins or losses, aside from his rebounding is 12rpg in wins and 8.6 in losses. Dame, however, seems to play best when everyone else is crap and he feels the need to just take over.

His shooting has improved as the year's gone on:

NOV: 38.8% FG, 38.4% 3pt, 91% FT
DEC: 43.9% FG, 47.2% 3pt, 88.5% FT
JAN: 45.2%, FG, 48.9% 3pt, 90.5% FT

He's currently shooting 7 shots less per game than LMA.

Other W/L splits:
Batum:
W: 10.6 FGA/g, 48% FG%, 40% 3pt 13.6/6.6/5.7
L: 10.4 FGA/g, 38% FG%, 23% 3pt 12.3/7.2/5.8

Wes:
W: 12.1 FGA/g, 50.0% FG% 46.1% 3pt% 17.6/4/2.3
L: 11.2 FGA/g, 39.6% FG%, 29.8% 3pt% 13.2/4.9/2.6

Damian's only shooting 0.5 FGA/g more, but he's almost 4pts/36min better.
Click to expand...


This is a great example of data-mining and why it leads people to false claims.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top