Is the bloom off the Rose?

[Shooter]

Forget our first-round loss against Phoenix. I'm actually more concerned about the long-term future of this team. It seems to me that a lot of questions were answered this year, and none of the answers are very encouraging:

Oden (whom we thought would lead us to several titles) is terribly injury-prone and may never have much of a career. He just may be the second coming of Sam Bowie, as painful as that is.

Aldridge (like the tin man in the Wizard of Oz) simply has no heart.

Roy, despite his brilliance, has more limitations than we realized. Four years into his career, he is still way too tentative at the start of games, and seems reluctant to take charge. We may have already seen the best of his game.

Fernandez, Webster, and Bayless all have serious limitations. I don't see any of them ever becoming a major piece of the puzzle.

Batum still has a nice upside, and may eventually become a star. Time will tell.

Miller, Camby, and Howard are solid, seasoned pros, but all of them are on the downside of their careers. If we don't win a title in the next two years, they probably won't be around for it.

In short, it's a grim picture, compared to what we thought we had in this team. I hope I'm wrong. I hope Oden comes back strong and has a great career, and Aldrige learns how to play a power game, and Roy keeps getting better and better.

I hope, I hope, I hope . . .

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I mostly agree with you. The long range optimism is gone. I'd be happy if Roy just got back to his normal self, and improved his defense, so I don't see him as someone holding us back. Should be an interesting offseason, but even there I am not overly optimistic, we don't seem to be in a position to add free agents, don't have a high draft pick and don't have many good assets to trade.

 

[zeded]

Roy, despite his brilliance, has more limitations than we realized. Four years into his career, he is still way too tentative at the start of games, and seems reluctant to take charge. We may have already seen the best of his game; I'm not sure I see much more development out of him.

Fernandez, Webster, and Bayless all have serious limitations. I don't see any of them ever becoming a major piece of the puzzle.

I felt the same this year, that Roy had peaked. I hope I'm wrong but I think we know what we're getting out of him for the rest of his career.

I have mixed feelings on both Fernandez and Bayless. There was that one point toward the end of the first quarter last night when J Rich tweaked his leg after getting off to that ferocious start. It seemed to throw him off a little and Portland came down on offense and J was guarding Roy on the wing. Bayless had the ball above the top of the key and was pounding the ball and I was literally shouting at the TV to pass to Roy so he could attack the injured man. The ball went a different direction. I know it's only one play but it was a microcosm of the Blazers' and particularly Bayless' decision making. Roy should have been demanding the ball and wasn't. Bayless should have sent it over immediately and didn't.

We were so sick of the Jail blazers and wanted nice guys. Here we've got them, but they're too nice to play NBA ball.

 

[Shooter]

There was that one point toward the end of the first quarter last night when J Rich tweaked his leg after getting off to that ferocious start. It seemed to throw him off a little and Portland came down on offense and J was guarding Roy on the wing. Bayless had the ball above the top of the key and was pounding the ball and I was literally shouting at the TV to pass to Roy so he could attack the injured man. The ball went a different direction. I know it's only one play but it was a microcosm of the Blazers' and particularly Bayless' decision making. Roy should have been demanding the ball and wasn't. Bayless should have sent it over immediately and didn't.

Yep. Bayless seems pretty clueless about how to distribute the ball. You can literally see the confusion on his face when he's dribbling around the top of the key. Nothing about the point guard position seems to come naturally to him. Roy is WAY too content to let things fall apart. It's a part of his game that I've never understood. The Blazers will go cold from the field, and everything will break down, and yet Roy will still stand around and watch instead of taking things in his own hands. It's not the style of play you expect from the best player on your team.

We were so sick of the Jail blazers and wanted nice guys. Here we've got them, but they're too nice to play NBA ball.

I don't see it quite that way. Nice guys can still be tough and very competitive. Our guys seem to lack the latter qualities.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

No. We would be a top 3 team in the west with a healthy Camby, Roy, and Batum. If we also have a healthy Oden, we move to the top.

 

[Wheels]

let me answer not right after a playoff loss.

 

[craigehlo]

Fernandez, Webster, and Bayless all have serious limitations. I don't see any of them ever becoming a major piece of the puzzle.

None of these guys are core players and any of them can be replaced with similar, if not better productivity, in the 1st round of the draft. Management needs to stop considering one-dimensional bench players as core guys.

 

[Nikolokolus]

No. We would be a top 3 team in the west with a healthy Camby, Roy, and Batum. If we also have a healthy Oden, we move to the top.

You really think the way this team operates on offense is top 3 worthy? I mean I guess it's possible that they just had too many setbacks due to injury, but even if they were to post a top 3 record in the west I have serious doubts about their ability to go far in the playoffs ... they remind of Dallas in that respect: jumper happy, not exactly a physical team but with more isos and less player movement.

If nothing significant changes over the summer this will once again be a really nice regular season team, but will not in my opinion be a dominant playoff team with the way they play on offense (and defense for that matter).

 

[BlazerBeav]

No. We would be a top 3 team in the west with a healthy Camby, Roy, and Batum. If we also have a healthy Oden, we move to the top.

Agreed. Phoenix was the only team that was healtheir than OKC this year - and the seperation between the two of us was still not much. If (and it's a huge if) we can ever get through a season in reasonable health, we're right where we thought we'd be. We definitely have to improve our offensive schemes, but the cheap points alone that Oden would have offered in this series would have gone a long way in masking our lousy offensive sets.

 

[craigehlo]

No. We would be a top 3 team in the west with a healthy Camby, Roy, and Batum. If we also have a healthy Oden, we move to the top.

Blazer fans seems to have amnesia from the start of the season. The Blazers were brutal on defense with Oden and a healthy Roy. Missing Batum wasn't the reason the team defense stunk.

And remember how Nate utilized Oden on the block and ran all those great plays for him? Yea me neither.

 

[anonymous gambler]

Hell no! What we did this season with all these injuries was incredible- if we had a normal Roy, Phoenix would have been dead and we probably would have run over San Antonio as well. Next year, as a healthy team, we are stacked with talent. Aldridge/Camby/Oden is a great front line- always a great defender in the center and I think Oden gives us our post play. I'm happy with Batum/Webster at the 3- both are good defenders and Batum has potential star quality. Brandon Roy is a top 10 player in the league and has heart to boot. Miller has proven himself at the point.

So, we're left with just a few holes to fill- some backups, maybe some more offense off the bench. Lets see what the Blazers do.

 

[craigehlo]

Brandon Roy is a top 10 player in the league and has heart to boot. Miller has proven himself at the point.

First Miller was rendered completely effective by a Grant Hill, who has about 20 screws in his ankle.

BRoy as a top 10 talent is stretching it. Maybe 10 - 20.

 

[mook]

No. We would be a top 3 team in the west with a healthy Camby, Roy, and Batum. If we also have a healthy Oden, we move to the top.

I wouldn't go quite that far, but I'm pretty close.

People need to get some perspective here. With our superstar shooting guard out for over half a series and playing like a mediocre role player when he was in, a gimpy starting small forward and center, they still took the Suns to six games.

Batum with basically one arm still contained Nash last nights as well as anyone has all season. Imagine if he were healthy enough that we had the luxury to put him on Nash for the entire series. Unfortunately, we just couldn't do it because fighting through all those screens would have killed his shoulder.

And does anybody really think Jason Richardson would look like such a stud on offense if he was constantly getting his ass handed to him on the other end by Roy in peak form? He basically didn't cover anybody all series. You tell an offensive-minded guy like him that he can just coast all game long on the other end, and he's going to have a field day.

I'm completely convinced that if Roy and Batum are 100% for this series, we win in 5 games. And we stand a decent chance of getting to the WCF.

Add in Oden, who was coming into form this year with a 23 PER. Add in that Miller will finally be used correctly from the beginning of the season. Add in Camby as our backup center for a full year.

It was an amazingly hard luck season for injuries this year. It won't always be like this. I'm excited as hell about next season and the team we'll be able to put on the court.

 

[Wheels]

First Miller was rendered completely effective by a Grant Hill, who has about 20 screws in his ankle.

Do you think they would have given Miller THAT much attention with a healthy Roy?

 

[RoyToy]

Young teams don't win right away. This isn't exactly unusual. Back away from the ledge.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Do you think they would have given Miller THAT much attention with a healthy Roy?

Even with a healthy Roy we would have still seen the Suns load up on the ball handler (Miller or Roy) and dared the outlet man to beat them with a long jumpshot ... something neither Roy or Miller are particularly adept at. Besides it's not that hard to nullify a team that runs as many isos and stand-still offense as the Blazers run.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Young teams don't win right away. This isn't exactly unusual. Back away from the ledge.

This isn't a young team anymore.

 

[hasoos]

1. The team really never got to see the starting lineup as intended. Oden was injured before Miller became a full time starter. It may or may not have mattered. I would have at least liked to have seen them and make the judgement myself.

2. When the team figures out that they need to quit trying to make Bayless into a PG and play him as a SG, we will move forward in a positive fashion. Go get a PG, and let Bayless be a scorer. That is what he is. Develope his jump shot to make him lethal will pay huge dividends. It is the only thing holding his game as a SG back.

3. Lamarcus Aldridge is not a #2 scorer. He is an above average role player. Our only hope with the lineup as is, is that Greg is healthy and steps into that #2 scorer guy spot, or KP or whoever is in charge, goes out and gets somebody.

4. If they do not get Brandon some more help, he is going to just get beat to hell again and this pattern will repeat. I talked about this last year. If Roy does not get some help, he is going to be like Dwayne Wade. Beat all to hell trying to carry a team every year, and not getting anywhere but 1 and done.

 

[RoyToy]

This isn't a young team anymore.

Roy
Aldridge
Rudy
Bayless
Batum
Webster
Cunningham

7 players right there that played meaningful minutes last night that are young, not too mention the best two players just finished only their 4th season in the NBA. It's not usual to come in and start reeling off championships or getting deep into the playoffs like it's nothing, especially in the western conference.

Last year they were beascailly the youngest team in the NBA and got to game 6, not bad.
This year they got to game 6 after being decimated by injuries before and during the playoffs, not bad.

Let's see what an experienced and healthy team can do before we trade everyone away, ok?

 

[Wheels]

Even with a healthy Roy we would have still seen the Suns load up on the ball handler (Miller or Roy) and dared the outlet man to beat them with a long jumpshot ... something neither Roy or Miller are particularly adept at. Besides it's not that hard to nullify a team that runs as many isos and stand-still offense as the Blazers run.

I'm talking more about the full court pressing they threw at Miller with Hill.

 

[hasoos]

Roy
Aldridge
Rudy
Bayless
Batum
Webster
Cunningham

7 players right there that played meaningful minutes last night that are young, not too mention the best two players just finished only their 4th season in the NBA. It's not usual to come in and start reeling off championships or getting deep into the playoffs like it's nothing, especially in the western conference.

Last year they were beascailly the youngest team in the NBA and got to game 6, not bad.
This year they got to game 6 after being decimated by injuries before and during the playoffs, not bad.

Let's see what an experienced and healthy team can do before we trade everyone away, ok?

You guys can argue over that all you want. The repeated kick in the nutz by the injuries this year pretty much make the whole argument completely moot. I can't remember a more frustrating season.

 

[e_blazer]

The Blazers were good enough this season to get the 6th seed in the West even while losing more than 300 player games to injury. The starting lineup changed multiple times, they played without a true center for a good portion of the season and yet they still made the playoffs. Once they made the playoffs, they took the hottest team in the league to 6 games while playing 3 games without Brandon and 3 games with a far from normal Brandon. Batum and Camby were both hobbled with injuries, yet the Blazers managed to go 6 games.

I see no reason to be less than optimistic about the team's future. Many of the issues that the OP raises, I believe go away with a healthy roster. Aldridge will likely never be a dominant low post player, but if Oden is able to play, he doesn't need to be. Camby, Miller, and Howard may not have many seasons left in them, but there are always guys like them at the end of their careers who are looking to hook up with a contending team. When their stints are over, they can be replaced. Ultimately, whether this team is able to be a serious contender for a title, IMO, depends upon Oden. He's the difference maker between the Blazers and the rest of the good teams in the West. It's easy to write him off as injury prone, but I think that's short sighted. Players can overcome injury problems and have productive careers. Grant Hill certainly makes a good case for not writing off a talented player because of injury. Hopefully, Oden will be back at full strength next fall and will begin to write a more positive chapter to his career.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The Blazers were good enough this season to get the 6th seed in the West even while losing more than 300 player games to injury. The starting lineup changed multiple times, they played without a true center for a good portion of the season and yet they still made the playoffs. Once they made the playoffs, they took the hottest team in the league to 6 games while playing 3 games without Brandon and 3 games with a far from normal Brandon. Batum and Camby were both hobbled with injuries, yet the Blazers managed to go 6 games.

I see no reason to be less than optimistic about the team's future. Many of the issues that the OP raises, I believe go away with a healthy roster. Aldridge will likely never be a dominant low post player, but if Oden is able to play, he doesn't need to be. Camby, Miller, and Howard may not have many seasons left in them, but there are always guys like them at the end of their careers who are looking to hook up with a contending team. When their stints are over, they can be replaced. Ultimately, whether this team is able to be a serious contender for a title, IMO, depends upon Oden. He's the difference maker between the Blazers and the rest of the good teams in the West. It's easy to write him off as injury prone, but I think that's short sighted. Players can overcome injury problems and have productive careers. Grant Hill certainly makes a good case for not writing off a talented player because of injury. Hopefully, Oden will be back at full strength next fall and will begin to write a more positive chapter to his career.

Thank you. This is exactly how I feel as well. I'm glad I didn't have to muster up the enthusiasm to write those two paragraphs; it's too early in the grieving process for me.

 

[maxiep]

The Blazers were good enough this season to get the 6th seed in the West even while losing more than 300 player games to injury. The starting lineup changed multiple times, they played without a true center for a good portion of the season and yet they still made the playoffs. Once they made the playoffs, they took the hottest team in the league to 6 games while playing 3 games without Brandon and 3 games with a far from normal Brandon. Batum and Camby were both hobbled with injuries, yet the Blazers managed to go 6 games.

I see no reason to be less than optimistic about the team's future. Many of the issues that the OP raises, I believe go away with a healthy roster. Aldridge will likely never be a dominant low post player, but if Oden is able to play, he doesn't need to be. Camby, Miller, and Howard may not have many seasons left in them, but there are always guys like them at the end of their careers who are looking to hook up with a contending team. When their stints are over, they can be replaced. Ultimately, whether this team is able to be a serious contender for a title, IMO, depends upon Oden. He's the difference maker between the Blazers and the rest of the good teams in the West. It's easy to write him off as injury prone, but I think that's short sighted. Players can overcome injury problems and have productive careers. Grant Hill certainly makes a good case for not writing off a talented player because of injury. Hopefully, Oden will be back at full strength next fall and will begin to write a more positive chapter to his career.

Exactly right. Repped.

 

[Minstrel]

Blazer fans seems to have amnesia from the start of the season. The Blazers were brutal on defense with Oden and a healthy Roy. Missing Batum wasn't the reason the team defense stunk.

Actually, they were one of the top-rated defenses prior to Oden getting hurt.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Actually, they were one of the top-rated defenses prior to Oden getting hurt.

With the caveat that they played a pretty soft schedule to start the season ... I do agree that their early issues seemed to be more about offensive identity though (the identity isn't so much of a problem now, but offense is still a problem).

 

[Minstrel]

With the caveat that they played a pretty soft schedule to start the season ... I do agree that their early issues seemed to be more about offensive identity though (the identity isn't so much of a problem now, but offense is still a problem).

Let's see how their offense looks with a healthy Roy, Oden and Batum to go with Miller and Aldridge. Camby is a nice player but he doesn't have the same impact on offense that Oden, even as raw as Oden is.

The team had one of the best offenses in the NBA in 2008-09. I think the talent is certainly there to return to top of the offensive charts. The talent is also there to be at least an above average defense. If the team is healthy (big if, granted), I see both of those things happening.

 

[hasoos]

That is correct. I think we were ranked 2nd.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Let's see how their offense looks with a healthy Roy, Oden and Batum to go with Miller and Aldridge. Camby is a nice player but he doesn't have the same impact on offense that Oden, even as raw as Oden is.

The team had one of the best offenses in the NBA in 2008-09. I think the talent is certainly there to return to top of the offensive charts. The talent is also there to be at least an above average defense. If the team is healthy (big if, granted), I see both of those things happening.

I guess you're referring to their offensive efficiency rating (points per possession)? But wasn't all of that really predicated on a couple of things that maybe aren't all that bankable in the playoffs? Namely getting to the foul line more than your opponent and pulling lots of offensive boards (which don't reset a 'possession'). This team is still very middle of the pack or poor in categories that I think matter more in determining just how effective an offense really is and those are team field goal percentage, and points in the paint (post scoring and fast break points). I wish there was a way to track just how many contested shots this team takes or were taken under some kind of duress.

Frankly, I see this as a very good regular season offense, but one that is probably doomed to more struggles against a playoff caliber team over a seven game series.

 

[Minstrel]

I guess you're referring to their offensive efficiency rating (points per possession)? But wasn't all of that really predicated on a couple of things that maybe aren't all that bankable in the playoffs? Namely getting to the foul line more than your opponent and pulling lots of offensive boards (which don't reset a 'possession').

Why aren't those things bankable in the post-season? Aren't the playoffs supposed to favour teams that get to the line and rebound like madmen?

Also, I think it was predicated on getting good shots. One thing I will admit, Blake helped that. He could space the floor and shoot open threes. I don't think that's the most valuable skill, or the hardest to find, but the team is missing it. It would help if Webster or Rudy were knocking down their open shots, or if Batum were given more shots.