Is the West really getting stronger?

[Sug]

I have seen the idea that the West has gotten stronger, but I question that statement with several points.

#1 Out of the eight teams that made the playoffs last season, only two of them have taken steps that could have a major impact on their roster. The Lakers and Spurs both went out and looked to get better, although the Lakers have also lost a key role player, and might still lose out on Odom(although I think he signs with the Lakers).

#2 Of the six remaining teams that made the playoffs last season, none have really done anything to make their teams better. If you disagree with this statement, please come with evidence to the contrary.

#3 Houston, Phoenix, Minnesota, Memphis, OKC, The Clippers, and Sacramento are probably not going to make the playoffs. The Clippers might be able to make a push, but the other teams are just not there yet. Both Houston and the Suns are done, and have entered rebuilding mode.

#4 Golden State is probably the odds on favorite to replace the Rockets in the top 8.

#5 So of the probable Western playoff teams, you only have two teams that probably got better. The good news for the Blazers is simply that their roster is so young that the development alone should keep them in the top 4 in the West.

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

well, Denver added Ty Lawson which should help them out somewhat. Not a huge upgrade. The L*kers got MUCH stronger for the next 3-4 years with Artest. The Spurs are keeping the Tim Duncan bandwagon alive with RJeff.

That's all we really need to worry about. That and the east because we should be in the mindset of winning the west, not competing with the pretenders.

 

[RoyToy]

The Blazers haven't landed a FA yet so that just means they're back on the path to the Jail Blazers. KP should be fired.

 

[RickyRubio]

It is still going to be 7 teams in for sure and the rest fighting for the 8th spot. I think the playoffs are going to be the exact same teams next year, minus PHX and the rest with PHX will be fighting for 8th spot.

Oh wait, I forgot that Houston fell off the face of the Earth. So it's the exact teams as last year, minus PHX and HOU. Then everyone else fights for 7th and 8th seed.

 

[rocketeer]

no, the west isn't getting stronger.

one team has gotten significantly worse(the rockets). one team has definitely gotten better(the spurs).

other than that, i don't think anyone has made a significant change. the suns losing shaq won't hurt that much. i don't think artest actually improves the lakers at all. denver still has 3 key players to resign to keep the same team as last year.

this is good for the blazers because they along with teams like oklahoma city and memphis(though i think them adding randolph is going to cancel out any positive growth from their rookies) are the ones who stand to gain the most from internal improvements. portland is the only playoff team who can realistically expect to improve significantly this season from just the development of their own players.

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

Artest gives the Lakers a real scoring threat in the second unit if Kobe's resting. That was a big weakness, getting points if Kobe sat...now they don't have that problem and get better defensively.

 

[Minstrel]

The Lakers have largely held steady and will get worse if they don't re-sign Odom (but I expect that they will).

Houston has, of course, gotten much worse with the loss of Yao.

San Antonio should be better due to having Ginobili back. Jefferson will help, but much less than people believe based on his name.

Denver has really not changed appreciably.

Those are the top teams other than Portland. Portland, as it stands today, will improve due to Oden, Batum, Aldridge, Bayless and Rudy developing and Oden being fully recovered from surgery.

So, I don't think the West is appreciably stronger and certainly not relative to Portland. San Antonio is the non-Portland team who improved the most and I think it's quite arguable as to whether that improvement is greater than, equal to or less than the improvement Portland will see just from internal development.

 

[crandc]

Not really. Phoenix is rebuilding. They may just get a #8 slot. Forget Golden State. Houston if Yao can play will be a playoff team but not a contender. New Orleans may also fall out. As to who will rise, OKC just might sneak in if enough teams fall out. I'd say barring major injuries Lakers, Denver, Portland, San Antonio, Dallas, Utah are sure playoff teams. Clippers are a long shot. I'd say Memphis and Sacramento have no shot. Who am I leaving out?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Yes

 

[oldmangrouch]

When the "bottom feeders" like Thunder and T"Wolves get stronger, it makes the conference tougher. Even if they are no threat to make the play-offs, they still represent more hard games over the course of the season, and quite possibly a few more road losses.

Of the contenders, I think the situation in SA is the most worrisome. Because of injuries and lack of quality depth, the Spurs underachieved last season. I may be in the minority, but I expect them to be back in the thick of things. If the L*kers re-sign Odom, the addition of Artest (and a possibly healthy Bynum) means they aren't going anywhere. Denver is a wildcard, as they could be just as strong, or flame out over personality issues. (after awhile, Karl always drives his players crazy)

The rest of the Western contenders will be relying on beating the Blazers with experience, rather than talent. That approach may not work over the course of 82 games, but it just might in a 7 game series.

 

[STOMP]

I'm not so sure about the Lakers resigning Odom. They've got a whole lot on the books and dude is 30 and slated to come off the bench... every dollar of his potential resigning will cost Buss double because they're over the lux tax line.

San Antonio made some decent moves but getting another year older isn't a plus for Timmy and Manu... losing out on the Sheedstakes exposes their lack of frontline depth.

Denver will be tough... Nene and Melo really impressed me.

Phoenix & Houston... I've no idea whats what with the state of the Hornets but their owner is historically cheap and he's losing money on the club.

Utah should be better with a recovered DWilliams. Boozer being in a contract year won't hurt their chances either. Dallas will probably stay solid.

Of the playoff clubs, I think Portland stands to be the most improved as 2nd year players often take large steps forward in their production and the Blazers have 4 guys that cut their teeth last year.

It's from the bottom of the West that I see potential for improvement. Golden State should be much better with a healthy Ellis. The Clips had horrible luck with injuries last season. Olk. City has maturing young talent and one of the few rooks who look to be solid contributers in Harden. The Kings should have a healthy Kevin Martin and their young front line shouldn't regress... I like the potential of Evans fitting with Martin. Thabeet gives Memphis a 2nd passable Big (MGasol being the other) and Conley, Mayo, and Gay should be another year better. The Timberwolves seem like they'll be terrible.

STOMP

 

[Masbee]

well, Denver added Ty Lawson which should help them out somewhat. Not a huge upgrade. The L*kers got MUCH stronger for the next 3-4 years with Artest. The Spurs are keeping the Tim Duncan bandwagon alive with RJeff.

That's all we really need to worry about. That and the east because we should be in the mindset of winning the west, not competing with the pretenders.

Yeah, ok. I just don't see it.

I am not a Jefferson fan. I liked him once - 4 years ago. Ya know, when he played defense to go with his all'round, yet unspectacular offensive game. He was a team player, versatile and played both ends of the floor. Now - he is just another wing. Nothing special. I say BFD on the Spurs "big get".

Artest. Very, very overrated. I will grant you he is a much bigger name than Ariza. He has a much larger entourage. He is much more creative with the hair.

Artest is MADE for L.A. The town. Not the team.

As far as making the Lakers "MUCH" better? Ummm, how? By taking quality shots away from Kobe and Gasol (shhhh, the true offensive anchor of the team, don't tell anyone), and turning them into crap shots?

What's the over/under on how many games before Phil has to bench Artest to teach him a lesson on shot selection?

Here are some numbers for you from last season:

PER: RA: 15.6; TA: 15.5
Win Shares: RA: 5.4; TA: 6.2
Defensive Rating: RA: 103; TA: 102
Offensive Rating: RA 104; TA: 112

Artest is in his prime. That is good. But, means, what you see is what you get. Ariza is 24 this season, he may improve over last season. Or not. If he doesn't, he still was awful close to Artest in how he helped his team - a stacked team. I just don't see the Laker's need for what Artest brings that Ariza can't. We will see how it works for the Lakers.

 

[B-Roy]

I think the goal of the Blazers from here on out should be to become a contender, and with that in mind, the top teams in the West (SA/LA) have improved, so that lowers our chances. Regardless of whether or not Portland is better than say, Utah, it doesn't do us any good if there's a tier of teams that are clearly above us.

 

[PapaG]

Artest gives the Lakers a real scoring threat in the second unit if Kobe's resting. That was a big weakness, getting points if Kobe sat...now they don't have that problem and get better defensively.

Lamar Odom isn't a scoring threat?

 

[Minstrel]

I think the goal of the Blazers from here on out should be to become a contender, and with that in mind, the top teams in the West (SA/LA) have improved, so that lowers our chances. Regardless of whether or not Portland is better than say, Utah, it doesn't do us any good if there's a tier of teams that are clearly above us.

There's isn't a tier of team clearly above Portland, in my opinion.

Portland and San Antonio were tied last season. San Antonio gets the clear upgrade of a healthy Ginobili and the overrated upgrade of Richard Jefferson. Portland is going to have four key, talented players developing from their rookie seasons to their second years, which is generally a pretty large gain relative to one's career arc. And Oden will be fully recovered from surgery. So, I think that, at the very least, Portland will improve as much as San Antonio.

LA was well ahead of Portland and will remain so unless they fail to re-sign Odom. If they don't get Odom back, they will likely remain ahead, but the gap will narrow.

 

[SteelBlaze1]

I think "the west" has probably not gotten better, but LA and SA sure have.

I read today that SA is also going to sign Glen Davis and will look to add McDyess. They just get better by the day. Granted it hasn't happened yet, but they are working on it.

Portland needs to do something (not radical, just to do something), but they should try and improve the team. Maybe they have seen some major improvement with the current guys and feel they are okay with what they have. I don't know.

My concern is that they are going to lose their cap space soon if they don't use it. But we shall see what KP will do. Hopefully in the next couple months, we will be able to judge if the "west" has truly gotten better.

 

[B-Roy]

Portland and San Antonio were tied last season. San Antonio gets the clear upgrade of a healthy Ginobili and the overrated upgrade of Richard Jefferson. Portland is going to have four key, talented players developing from their rookie seasons to their second years, which is generally a pretty large gain relative to one's career arc. And Oden will be fully recovered from surgery. So, I think that, at the very least, Portland will improve as much as San Antonio.

That's what I don't agree with. I'm sure all four will improve, but I'm not buying that they will improve enough to offset the acquisition of Jefferson and improved health.

 

[Idog1976]

Man not much to add. Well other then bashing on the Kobe and Artest combination ad naseum.

Oldmangrouch and Stomp really nailed things especially the point about bottom feeders being MUCH better in the West.

Minstrel really nailed down how San Antonio's pick up of Jefferson is over rated and Stomp points out how much better of a pickup Sheed would be (that says alot to me).

Finally, Masbee knocks it out of the park with Artest. I have to add that Artest is crazy, no really, I mean that in the sense of one being mentally ill not in the "but girl you CRAZY!" Sense of the word. More like in the OMFG he's attacking a quadraplegic dwarf in the 3rd row for taunting him into missing a FT! I mean it that guy is over the bend. He has a few ho-hum games and then suddenly a switch is thrown and he goes on tear where his intensity is through the roof. He is all smiles and saying the funniest things, then he enters the melt-down stage and is often looking for another team. I've seen him do things that really make me wonder.

I don't think this is a Rodman situation. I think Artest probably needs some real help. He is an amazing talent and seems to be a genuinely nice and intelligent man and yet he does these bizarre things and is constantly looking for a new team. One wonders what else happens in the locker room.

I was willing to roll the dice on Artest coming to P-town. I was thinking that this town and this team might do Artest some good and therefore the team some good. If he didn't work out it wouldn't be horrid. We are just starting to contend and our core is strong and the team mentality pretty unified. If Artest got out of hand we could ship him out and have only lost a season. If Artest worked it would vault Portland to the WCF or possibly beyond if he shut down Kobe (Battier defended Kobe as he did Roy).

For LA though this is a classic case of over reach and sudden risk when one is in a stable position of power. LA is in win now mode to take advantage of Kobe/Gasol's prime they have from 2 years to 5 years of title contention depending on injuries and wear n' tear. The obvious move is to keep that core together at all costs. Ariza was part of that core. Buss didn't want to extend a reasonable offer and insulted Ariza and his agent. They leave and Houston signs Ariza and then LA signs Artest. Did Houston really try to get Artest back? I wonder about that.

This will turn out to either be a brilliant upgrade that increases their dominance (70 win territory) or foolish gamble that ruins chemistry and releases Kobe the locker room monster. I don't buy the Kobe is this great leader stuff. I think he is no longer a raging asshole and is just an average vet leader who happens to have MJ-like skills. Leadership is one of the two trumps the G.O.A.T has on Kobe the other being unshakable confidence/will but I digress. Kobe I do not think has MJ's ability to command respect, personal respect not just skills respect, and therefore keep another strong personality in check (Rodman). Serious Mr. Bryant chafed with the strong personality of Shaq being around. He especially disliked Shaq's arrogance and silliness (Kobe is deadly serious). Just imagine what will happen when the incredibly unstable, extremely strong personality Artest starts chucking up three's on a play designed for Kobe? With a game on the line? All the other Lakers except Fisher are weak personalities the next strongest being Ariza. Kobe is vastly better then Fisher and Ariza and they know and accept that. Artest is just on a different wavelength. I think this is a big mistake by Buss and co. and I think this might actually hurt the Lakers and more then just the loss of Ariza.

 

[huevonkiller]

Buss didn't want to extend a reasonable offer and insulted Ariza and his agent.

He didn't? More like David Lee asked for 10 million a year and no discount. LA wants to spend that kind of money on Odom (only because Bynum is up and down with his health), which I concur with. Now Trev settled for the same "insulting" contract LA would have given him.

Serious Mr. Bryant chafed with the strong personality of Shaq being around. He especially disliked Shaq's arrogance and silliness (Kobe is deadly serious). Just imagine what will happen when the incredibly unstable, extremely strong personality Artest starts chucking up three's on a play designed for Kobe? With a game on the line?

Kobe and Artest have been trying to play together for a while now. Artest even visited Kobe in the locker room a year ago just after the post-season ended. He snuck in.

 

[Mamba]

The shower.

Not the lockerroom.

The shower.

 

[Minstrel]

That's what I don't agree with. I'm sure all four will improve, but I'm not buying that they will improve enough to offset the acquisition of Jefferson and improved health.

Jefferson is incredibly average. Adding an average player is nice but hardly a big deal. A healthy Ginobili will make a significant difference.

The most likely scenario is that they all improve. There are fairly well-established career paths, a bell curve of production and until their primes, they'll be ascending that bell curve unless they're outliers.

Just Oden getting back his explosiveness and playing more minutes could offset the return of Ginobili. Oden was a very good player last season, he just didn't play enough. Playing more and playing better will make him an impact player.

Offsetting Jefferson just requires that Batum improve a bit.

Bayless and Rudy improving would just be gravy or would make up for Oden not improving much. But I quite expect Oden to improve a lot. His efficiency last season was remarkable considering he was lacking some of his explosiveness.

 

[Idog1976]

He didn't? More like David Lee asked for 10 million a year and no discount. LA wants to spend that kind of money on Odom (only because Bynum is up and down with his health), which I concur with. Now Trev settled for the same "insulting" contract LA would have given him.


Kobe and Artest have been trying to play together for a while now. Artest even visited Kobe in the locker room a year ago just after the post-season ended. He snuck in.

I also said this which I imagine you like better:

This will turn out to either be a brilliant upgrade that increases their dominance (70 win territory)

But I still think it could be this:

or foolish gamble that ruins chemistry and releases Kobe the locker room monster.

Kobe is possibly the most skilled player of all time but he is also one of the games biggest enigmas. One thing Kobe isn't is a great leader with tremendous personal charisma. He just finally stopped getting in his own way. We'll see if Kobe can keep it together if Ron can't keep his together. Sooner or later Ron will lose it before that contract is up. That will be a real test of Kobe's supposed new found leadership. Phil Jackson is the greatest hope for LA with Artest. I have incredible faith in PJ's player ego management. But by Phil's own admission Kobe is the toughest guy he's ever had to coach.

EDIT:
P.S. From a Laker hating standpoint Kobe is the greatest NBA villain ever.

 

[Idog1976]

Jefferson is incredibly average. Adding an average player is nice but hardly a big deal. A healthy Ginobili will make a significant difference.

The most likely scenario is that they all improve. There are fairly well-established career paths, a bell curve of production and until their primes, they'll be ascending that bell curve unless they're outliers.

Just Oden getting back his explosiveness and playing more minutes could offset the return of Ginobili. Oden was a very good player last season, he just didn't play enough. Playing more and playing better will make him an impact player.

Offsetting Jefferson just requires that Batum improve a bit.

Bayless and Rudy improving would just be gravy or would make up for Oden not improving much. But I quite expect Oden to improve a lot. His efficiency last season was remarkable considering he was lacking some of his explosiveness.

Right on Minstrel I think you are spot on regarding Oden. The man couldn't do serious leg lifting until about 3 weeks ago. Now he is training constantly. I think by the seasons end people will see a #1 draft pick. By 2010/11 I expect we will see a MONSTER.

 

[huevonkiller]

I also said this which I imagine you like better:



But I still think it could be this:



Kobe is possibly the most skilled player of all time but he is also one of the games biggest enigmas. One thing Kobe isn't is a great leader with tremendous personal charisma. He finally stopped getting in his own way. We'll see if Kobe can keep it together if Ron can't keep his together. Sooner or later Ron will lose it before that contract is up. That will be a real test of Kobe's supposed new found leadership. Phil Jackson is the greatest hope for LA with Artest. I have incredible faith in PJ's player ego management. But by Phil's own admission Kobe is the toughest guy he's ever had to coach.

The one with issues is Artest, everyone else is in harmony over there. I love Artest's attitude though, I don't want a soft team.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Jefferson is incredibly average. Adding an average player is nice but hardly a big deal. A healthy Ginobili will make a significant difference.

It's all about the context.

In a vacum, Jefferson, Blair, and Haislip are unimpressive. Compared to the paper thin bench the Spurs had before, they are an upgrade. If Jefferson is merely league average, it gives them more flexibility with Gino's minutes, and improves the odds of having him at 100% when the play-offs roll around.

As you (correctly) point out, getting Ginobili (and Duncan) healthy is the real issue. Jefferson, et al are just a means to getting there.

 

[Idog1976]

It's all about the context.

In a vacum, Jefferson, Blair, and Haislip are unimpressive. Compared to the paper thin bench the Spurs had before, they are an upgrade. If Jefferson is merely league average, it gives them more flexibility with Gino's minutes, and improves the odds of having him at 100% when the play-offs roll around.

As you (correctly) point out, getting Ginobili (and Duncan) healthy is the real issue. Jefferson, et al are just a means to getting there.

Good points. I still want to see how DeJuan Blair does even just for next year and the playoffs to see if he was worth taking a flyer on in the 2nd round.

 

[Idog1976]

The one with issues is Artest, everyone else is in harmony over there. I love Artest's attitude though, I don't want a soft team.

Laker fans always act strangely if you say anything other then Kobe is...well...dare I say...Jesus... It's no longer enough to merely say he is the most skilled basketball player on the planet.

 

[Minstrel]

It's all about the context.

In a vacum, Jefferson, Blair, and Haislip are unimpressive. Compared to the paper thin bench the Spurs had before, they are an upgrade. If Jefferson is merely league average, it gives them more flexibility with Gino's minutes, and improves the odds of having him at 100% when the play-offs roll around.

I agree, which is why I said adding an average player is nice. That wasn't sarcasm...no team has 12 players who are average or better, so adding an average player will always be a benefit.

But, to put the gain in context...if Batum improves just a bit, going from a bit below average in production to around average or even a bit more, then Portland will have gained just as much (Jefferson over his replacement last year vs. Batum over his inferior version last year). Portland only needs a small gain from Batum to "even out" that gain from San Antonio.

So, it's not that San Antonio didn't help themselves. It's that Portland doesn't need a lot from Batum to equal it.

They will need more significant improvements from someone else to "even out" a healthy Ginobili. Personally, I believe they'll get it from Oden.

 

[huevonkiller]

Laker fans always act strangely if you say anything other then Kobe is...well...dare I say...Jesus... It's no longer enough to merely say he is the most skilled basketball player on the planet.

Ok, I complained about that? I don't know any laker fans that had problems with the spare compliments you gave us.

 

[alex42083]

It's from the bottom of the West that I see potential for improvement.

I agree with that. It's not necessarily the top teams in the West that got a lot better, but the overall West improved. The bottom feeders like OKC, the Clips, and probably even Memphis (as much as I hate to admit that), might not be rollovers like they were.

Even with the roster we have, I'd be disappointed if we didn't duplicate another top-four finish and get HCA in the first round.