It's official - Oden out for season

[Pinwheel1]

I say use this latest injury to sign him to a long term extension at a (much) less than "maximum rate". (50 million for 5 years could be possible)

 

[B-Roy]

I say use this latest injury to sign him to a long term extension at a (much) less than "maximum rate". (50 million for 5 years could be possible)

He's not getting a deal in light of his injury. Chances are he enters the 2011 free agency as a restricted free agent.

 

[Pinwheel1]

He's not getting a deal in light of his injury. Chances are he enters the 2011 free agency as a restricted free agent.

Sure he will. If the price is beneficial to Portland. Is it a gamble?Yes. But it is a gamble that could save Portland 20-25 million dollars if they sign him low. If I am Greg, I would consider being set up for life regardless if I can stay on the court. If I am Portland, I would be nervous, but I would take the chance. Especially since insurance would cover a career threatning injury.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

He's not getting a deal in light of his injury. Chances are he enters the 2011 free agency as a restricted free agent.

My guess is this as well.

 

[B-Roy]

Sure he will. If the price is beneficial to Portland. Is it a gamble?Yes. But it is a gamble that could save Portland 20-25 million dollars if they sign him low. If I am Greg, I would consider being set up for life regardless if I can stay on the court. If I am Portland, I would be nervous, but I would take the chance. Especially since insurance would cover a career threatning injury.

You're still viewing Greg as a perennial all-star center. I can see where you are coming from, but with 3 injuries in three years, two being season ending, I just can't see why anyone would take the risk without seeing him in action for a full season.

 

[Pinwheel1]

The $ amount is the key to both of our points. But "perennial all-star centers" make more than 10 million a year. (see Yao Ming) So I am not viewing him as such. I do understand what you are saying, but I would still gamble on a 5 year 50 million extension to lock him up for 6-7 years.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I'd offer him an "attendance" incentivized extension: 5 years, with a base average of $8 mill a year (base being $40 mil total). For each season he plays more than 60 games and averages 25 minutes a game, he gets an additional 25% bonus for that year ($2 mil avg). If he plays 75+ games in a season, and averages 30 minutes a game, another 25% bonus.

So, if Oden plays 75+ games a season at starter minutes, we're on the hook for $12 million a year average. But, if he's playing that much and that long, he's probably playing well enough to be worth it.

Note that I'm not placing any achievements like point average or all star game in there, but I'd assume that it'd be comparable to what LMA and Roy are getting. So basically, if he plays like a Pillar, he'll get paid like a Pillar. But if he turns out not to be out a lot, then the front offices mitigates risk.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'd offer him an "attendance" incentivized extension: 5 years, with a base average of $8 mill a year (base being $40 mil total). For each season he plays more than 60 games and averages 25 minutes a game, he gets an additional 25% bonus for that year ($2 mil avg). If he plays 75+ games in a season, and averages 30 minutes a game, another 25% bonus.

So, if Oden plays 75+ games a season at starter minutes, we're on the hook for $12 million a year average. But, if he's playing that much and that long, he's probably playing well enough to be worth it.

Note that I'm not placing any achievements like point average or all star game in there, but I'd assume that it'd be comparable to what LMA and Roy are getting. So basically, if he plays like a Pillar, he'll get paid like a Pillar. But if he turns out not to be out a lot, then the front offices mitigates risk.

I have a feeling a contract like that would violate the CBA. If you are going to give him a contract about the best you could do is include team options on years or you could make some of the years of his deal unguaranteed (sort of like Travis and Blake were before their final year's were renewed for this year).

At best Greg could probably expect the MLE for 2 years guaranteed money and then maybe 2 more years with team options. Now way in hell he'll get 8 million or 10 million per year, and if you did give him that much money you'd be bidding against yourself since no team in their right minds would commit that much salary to a guy who's missed so many games.

 

[THE HCP]

I'm curious what Brooks said here. I hope he wasn't talking shit.

Actually right after that pic, Greg started laughing, so I'm sure Brooks was being cool.

 

[THE HCP]

That looks like Ahmad Rashad in the crowd.

He was there shooting something for NBATV. He was also acting like a tool after the game trying to mack on the Blazer Dancers in the media room!

 

[Pinwheel1]

At best Greg could probably expect the MLE for 2 years guaranteed money and then maybe 2 more years with team options. Now way in hell he'll get 8 million or 10 million per year, and if you did give him that much money you'd be bidding against yourself since no team in their right minds would commit that much salary to a guy who's missed so many games.

There will always be someone willing to take that risk.

 

[B-Roy]

There will always be someone willing to take that risk.

You overestimate people, especially in this economy.

If a team does offer that, so be it, we will probably match. But you make them do it in restricted free agency, you don't, like nik said, bid against yourself with an extension.

 

[Pinwheel1]

You overestimate people, especially in this economy.

If a team does offer that, so be it, we will probably match. But you make them do it in restricted free agency, you don't, like nik said, bid against yourself with an extension.

You wait and you may run the risk of having him wait another year until he is an un-restricted free agent. That would be a big oops IMO. Hey if you want to play hard ball with him, fine I get it. But there will be plenty of teams that will go after him if we leave the door open.

I don't know exactly what you offer him this summer, I am just saying take advantage of the bad situation and get him long term a lot cheaper, than if you wait.

 

[BBert]

That looks like Ahmad Rashad in the crowd.

It sure does, complete with signature scarf. Good catch.

 

[B-Roy]

You wait and you may run the risk of having him wait another year until he is an un-restricted free agent. That would be a big oops IMO. Hey if you want to play hard ball with him, fine I get it. But there will be plenty of teams that will go after him if we leave the door open.

I think you are severely overestimating Oden's value. A big that has missed over 70% of his first three seasons is not in line for a $10 million/Year contract. It's just too big of a risk. It's not playing hardball, it's realizing that you shouldn't overpay a player when 1.) He's a huge injury risk, and 2.) His value is low. You have to see him play well for a season before you sign him to an extension.

 

[B-Roy]

Besides, if you just think of it in normal terms, he hasn't done anything close to deserve that kind of money yet. I know he's the franchise center, but what kind of message would that send?