Job Market- When will it recover? How is it?

[Buzz Killington]

Just wondering.

I have a few friends unemployed...one is actually praying they get a job cooking at Dennys (graduated college 2 years ago)...can't even get a job at a department store. Other friends seem to be making lateral promotions though too...a bit hard to read. Seems most people are hiring people who are already employed?

 

[Shapecity]

It's going to get worse especially in California.

 

[yakbladder]

I've been unemployed since April. Let me tell you it's worse, at least in technology, than the dot-com bust days because every industry is affected, and every industry with few exceptions has been hit hard. Not just a bit, not a medium-sized hit, but a full on brutal attack. I've seen companies start to hire more in the last three months, but it's mostly been contract work. If your buddy really needs work then I'd suggest he look the contract route if he qualifies for anything. The fact that he's fresh out of college should actually help him, though don't be surprised to see pre-1997 salary levels.

 

[Buzz Killington]

I heard some shit about it being harder to get into harvard or something than getting a job.

Even hotel workers.....so many for the new Ritz Carlton near staples.

 

[Buzz Killington]

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs2-2009dec02,0,3762929.story?track=rss

As hotels and restaurants continue to bleed jobs, thousands of people are applying for newly opened positions, overwhelming hiring staff and pointing up how hard the recession has hit service-sector workers.

Nearly 11,000 people have applied for 400 jobs at the swanky W Hollywood Hotel & Residences slated to open in Hollywood early next year. About 3,500 have applied for 550 openings at the new Ritz-Carlton Los Angeles near Staples Center.

And it's not just happening in Southern California: Thousands have sought work at the new CityCenter project in Las Vegas, the Roosevelt Hotel in New Orleans and other properties across the country.

that is fucking scary.

 

[yakbladder]

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs2-2009dec02,0,3762929.story?track=rss



that is fucking scary.

Yep, what's really funny in technology is that a bunch of have jokes about how with all of the outsourcing that's still going on (because, believe me there are jobs..just not in this country) soon there won't be enough people left making enough money to buy the products we are outsourcing to make!

But then it's not so funny, and so we stopped making that joke.

 

[Sedatedfork]

Tell your friends to become mods. Denny pays very well!! I see Minstrel making it rain at the Acrop nearly every night

 

[Buzz Killington]

Yep, what's really funny in technology is that a bunch of have jokes about how with all of the outsourcing that's still going on (because, believe me there are jobs..just not in this country) soon there won't be enough people left making enough money to buy the products we are outsourcing to make!

But then it's not so funny, and so we stopped making that joke.

Yeah, theoretically, outsourcing is supposed to save people money. But they just squander it.

 

[yakbladder]

Tell your friends to become mods. Denny pays very well!! I see Minstrel making it rain at the Acrop nearly every night

That's funnier than you think, since Minstrel is a dancer at Acrop.

 

[Shapecity]

I've been unemployed since April. Let me tell you it's worse, at least in technology, than the dot-com bust days because every industry is affected, and every industry with few exceptions has been hit hard. Not just a bit, not a medium-sized hit, but a full on brutal attack. I've seen companies start to hire more in the last three months, but it's mostly been contract work. If your buddy really needs work then I'd suggest he look the contract route if he qualifies for anything. The fact that he's fresh out of college should actually help him, though don't be surprised to see pre-1997 salary levels.

Do you feel motivated to get a job when you're getting unemployment checks each month?

I only ask because it's been a common trend for people I know out of work. The jobs available are paying less or equal to what they get each month in unemployment. Is that the case in Portland area?

 

[speeds]

There aren't a lot of people looking for inexperienced persons. If you have a lot of specific experience in one field it is easy to make a lateral move within that framework; however, from my searches, it seems there aren't a lot of companies growing and looking for new people to train and integrate. Nobody wants to lose a step right now.

 

[yakbladder]

Do you feel motivated to get a job when you're getting unemployment checks each month?

I only ask because it's been a common trend for people I know out of work. The jobs available are paying less or equal to what they get each month in unemployment. Is that the case in Portland area?

I feel motivated to get a job because I need a challenge and because my wife will be temporarily out of work for a few months come January. I certainly don't like being on the government dole but I'm glad it's there for these emergencies or else you'd probably see about 20% of the population out on the streets rioting right now.

But, that being said, I can't just go apply for Joe Schmoe job down at the mall for two reasons. One is because they will simply tell me I'm overqualified and send me away (I know, this happened last time I was unemployed)...it becomes a waste of time for them and me. Secondly, many jobs will pay less than unemployment. Seeing as how we're barely meeting expenses now I don't think that'd be such a wise idea.

 

[barfo]

I feel motivated to get a job because I need a challenge and because my wife will be temporarily out of work for a few months come January. I certainly don't like being on the government dole but I'm glad it's there for these emergencies or else you'd probably see about 20% of the population out on the streets rioting right now.

But, that being said, I can't just go apply for Joe Schmoe job down at the mall for two reasons. One is because they will simply tell me I'm overqualified and send me away (I know, this happened last time I was unemployed)...it becomes a waste of time for them and me. Secondly, many jobs will pay less than unemployment. Seeing as how we're barely meeting expenses now I don't think that'd be such a wise idea.

Seems like it would make sense (perhaps not for you in particular but in general) to allow those on unemployment to take a job that pays less than unemployment and have unemployment make up the difference. That way those that did want to go get a job at the mall would not be penalized for working, and they'd be costing less in unemployment benefits.

barfo

 

[Buzz Killington]

or go on unemployment, then stand outside home depot- $10 an hour!

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

With Obamanomics, a high unemployment rate will probably be the norm for the indefinite future- it's a natural result of socialist leaning policies and an over the top national debt. It could also get a lot worse if his plans for healthcare go thru.

That said, there are still growing industries- it's just going to get tricky finding them.

Then there's this- I believe that when doors are shut, others are opened. Even in bad economic times, smart and creative people can always find a way thru. And even though small businesses are taxed higher and higher, there are still opportunities for small businessmen.

So it is a gloomy picture, but not insurmountable.

 

[yakbladder]

Seems like it would make sense (perhaps not for you in particular but in general) to allow those on unemployment to take a job that pays less than unemployment and have unemployment make up the difference. That way those that did want to go get a job at the mall would not be penalized for working, and they'd be costing less in unemployment benefits.

barfo

Probably. The other problem is that me looking for a job I have zero experience in does not tend to open many doors. Once you get above a certain age people really pigeon-hole you in certain areas...even if I wanted to (and previously I really wanted to work in a bookstore) it's virtually impossible to find a job that low.

 

[yakbladder]

With Obamanomics, a high unemployment rate will probably be the norm for the indefinite future- it's a natural result of socialist leaning policies and an over the top national debt. It could also get a lot worse if his plans for healthcare go thru.

And yet the socialist countries have a lower unemployment rate right now..hrm..interesting.

I think we've gone round and round enough before on your health care views so..I'll leave it there.

Then there's this- I believe that when doors are shut, others are opened. Even in bad economic times, smart and creative people can always find a way thru.

So you're saying I'm dumb and unimaginative?

 

[maxiep]

And yet the socialist countries have a lower unemployment rate right now..hrm..interesting.

I think we've gone round and round enough before on your health care views so..I'll leave it there.




So you're saying I'm dumb and unimaginative?

Have you considered working two jobs? Even though one mall job would pay less than unemployment, why not work 60-80 hours per week? And if you think I'm being snide, I'm not. I'm trying to offer options. I remember when I first graduated from school. I was working as a research analyst and was making squat. I took a night job working at Nordstrom (where I worked in HS) and then tended bar on nights I had off. Whenever I needed money, I'd grab some night or weekend temp work.

As for our firm, we've definitely taken a hit, but mostly the firm has changed. We cut some admin staff and a few analysts. We moved our offices from nicer space in our buildings to space we felt would be the most difficult to rent. We absorbed a group from Lehman when it went belly up, and they're going like gangbusters, but without the increase in employment levels you'd generally see.

Our cash flow hasn't changed much, but the value of our holdings has plummeted. Space is getting much tougher to lease, as many of our tenants are subletting their space. We've had a number of retail properties go mostly empty, even though the tenants are paying on their space. It's cheaper for them to pay the rent and keep it empty rather than to build it out and operate it. As for work, when there is stuff to be done, our analysts and associates are working much harder and longer for less bonus money.

Our real concern is uncertainty. We have no idea what is going to happen with this economy, so we're planning for the worst. We have needs, but we refuse to hire anyone because it costs a lot of money to hire someone and train them, only to have to can them later. Even our CMBS unit--which is buying everything they can find right now--is just working their guys harder rather than hiring.

 

[mook]

It used to be you'd work for a big company to attain job security, and starting your own business was really risky.

Now in that big company you can get fired by some guy with a spreadsheet you've never met. At least with owning your own business, if you get fired it's because you suck at delivering a product or service to customers.

If you've been unemployed a while, my advice is to throw up a shingle and start some kind of business. Is it really that much harder or soul crushing than handing out 100 resumes and being unemployed for a year?

America has always excelled at fostering small businesses. Hopefully the next big boom happens because a lot of little garage companies (like my wife's) take off. I just don't see it happening again in manufacturing or construction.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Perhaps try some temp to hire agencies.

 

[yakbladder]

Have you considered working two jobs? Even though one mall job would pay less than unemployment, why not work 60-80 hours per week? And if you think I'm being snide, I'm not. I'm trying to offer options. I remember when I first graduated from school. I was working as a research analyst and was making squat. I took a night job working at Nordstrom (where I worked in HS) and then tended bar on nights I had off. Whenever I needed money, I'd grab some night or weekend temp work.

The problem is that A) There are literally hundreds of applicants applying for even the most peon of positions and B) Most of the employers laugh me off as if it's some kind of joke that I'd look for a peon position. So I'd have to somehow overcome the odds of hundreds of other people AND convince two employers I wasn't joking. I'm doing a few side jobs here and there to stay active and hopefully get some cash, but really I need the economy to pick up just a little.

Our real concern is uncertainty. We have no idea what is going to happen with this economy, so we're planning for the worst. We have needs, but we refuse to hire anyone because it costs a lot of money to hire someone and train them, only to have to can them later. Even our CMBS unit--which is buying everything they can find right now--is just working their guys harder rather than hiring.

Can't you guys just short everything when it goes bad and make money?

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

And yet the socialist countries have a lower unemployment rate right now..hrm..interesting.

OK, I did a check and it's about equal, but I will concede ours is slightly higher than Europe by about .5%.

 

[maxiep]

The problem is that A) There are literally hundreds of applicants applying for even the most peon of positions and B) Most of the employers laugh me off as if it's some kind of joke that I'd look for a peon position. So I'd have to somehow overcome the odds of hundreds of other people AND convince two employers I wasn't joking. I'm doing a few side jobs here and there to stay active and hopefully get some cash, but really I need the economy to pick up just a little.

I know it's brutal out there, especially in Oregon. Colorado, compared to much of the country, is actually doing pretty well. I have nine friends I can think of off the top of my head in Portland who have lost their jobs. They're barely scraping by and doing odd jobs. It sucks, but it seems to me there are two strategies: the shotgun approach and the sniper approach. I would probably take the high volume/low probability approach to temp work and a sniper approach for what you really want to do.

On the other side of the spectrum, I have so many friends and former colleagues who have lost their jobs on Wall Street. The smart ones saved their money and are living on their savings. Some have even said "I'm done", downshifted their lives, moved to small towns and just retired. I know of several, however, who couldn't conceive that they'd ever make less than seven figures annually and have spent like it. I have zero sympathy for them.

Mook made a great point. I got tired of having someone else control my destiny, as did my current partners. We were willing to take a career risk and take a significant pay cut (which thankfully was short-term) and now our more accomplished friends are calling us to see if we have work. Sometimes stepping out on your own really is the best thing.

Can't you guys just short everything when it goes bad and make money?

If you were smart, that's exactly what you did. We weren't smart. We're making long play by picking up bargains. Our current fund is investing in nothing but pad sites (freestanding buildings in the front of strip malls). We'll see how it plays out.

 

[maxiep]

OK, I did a check and it's about equal, but I will concede ours is slightly higher than Europe by about .5%.

It's about the natural rate of unemployment. Socialized countries have a three to five percentage point higher natural rate than do capitalist countries. Of course, the beta is higher for capitalist countries.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.kjct8.com/Global/story.asp?S=11658051

'Obamaville' sign posted near homeless camp

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (KRDO) -- Someone has put a lot of thought into a welcome sign that may surprise you, it's in front of a homeless camp off I-25 in Colorado Springs.

Its message, "Welcome to Obamaville, Colorado's fastest growing community." Despite repeated calls no one could answer the question, who put up the sign?

To some homeless the sign's message says enough. Mark Limonez, a homeless man living in "tent city", says the sign doesn't make him feel good about trying to get back on his feet. "Guys are trying to work but there's not enough work out there, so they go pan handling or flag a sign" Limonez says, "I've never seen so many camps since I've been out in the streets - there's no money."

There are no logos on the front of the sign and no clues to where it comes from.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Obamaville

Obamaville

An informal community of homeless, displaced, dispossessed, or destitute, including the tents, shacks, and automobiles in which they dwell.

Some hobos have set up an Obamaville in the woods down by the river.

 

[Buzz Killington]

The problem is that A) There are literally hundreds of applicants applying for even the most peon of positions and B) Most of the employers laugh me off as if it's some kind of joke that I'd look for a peon position. So I'd have to somehow overcome the odds of hundreds of other people AND convince two employers I wasn't joking. I'm doing a few side jobs here and there to stay active and hopefully get some cash, but really I need the economy to pick up just a little.

Can't you guys just short everything when it goes bad and make money?

I hired an editor/proofreader a few months ago, even at a relatively low hourly salary (for LA at least) and with 1099 (no benefits, independant contractor), I got some really really good applications...about 250-300 in a few days until I pulled the ad down.

Its fucking scary out there how this economy is going to survive the longer and longer this shit goes. I thought I was unlucky not to be a few years older and miss out on the Dot-Com boom...but college grads with no experience right now.....are fucking useless in the job market right now for the job market. Completely and utterly fucked beyond belief. If you're in college, get as many internships and network like a motherfucker....if you don't you're going to be playing X-box at home for about a year or two before you can even get a job in retail.

I don't know what's going to happen in the next year for me personally but I'm trying to lay the foundations for an immediate back-up plan if I lose my job for one reason or the other, however any plans to do this are contingent to how many connections and useful skills you pick up in your current job.

Unemployment, I can probably technically live on but I can't "live" on it, if ya know what I mean. Hopefully I don't get there. I've been unemployed, it sucks.

 

[Buzz Killington]

It used to be you'd work for a big company to attain job security, and starting your own business was really risky.

Now in that big company you can get fired by some guy with a spreadsheet you've never met. At least with owning your own business, if you get fired it's because you suck at delivering a product or service to customers.

If you've been unemployed a while, my advice is to throw up a shingle and start some kind of business. Is it really that much harder or soul crushing than handing out 100 resumes and being unemployed for a year?

America has always excelled at fostering small businesses. Hopefully the next big boom happens because a lot of little garage companies (like my wife's) take off. I just don't see it happening again in manufacturing or construction.

Problem is that I see most small businesses will attempt to reduce the expenses and need for employees of larger companies, leading to more unemployment.