Keeping our pick? This might be a Lottery year

[blazerkor]

I do think they have a new gm in mind. Barry, Prince, Battier, Hill could be consideration for GM and move Joe to Pres BO's.

Ugh... after the moves he just made Joe needs to be taken out of the GM position not given more power and autonomy.

 

[PCmor7]

Is it too soon to start a series of threads to determine a forum big board? Probably should wait until after the tourney, yeah?

Would that be who we think the Blazers should pick or a ranking of the top prospects as BPA?

If it's the latter, I'd probably go ...

1. Jabari
2. Ivey
3. Sharpe
4. Banchero
5. Holmgren
6. Mathurin
7. Griffin
8. Murray

I realize I'm waaaaaaaay higher on Sharpe than anyone right now, but his shot tool in my mind is up there with Smith's, he has length and is athletic. If I'm picking at the top of a draft, I'm trying to hit home runs, not pick someone with a high floor who projects as a No. 3-4 starter.

 

[Natebishop3]

Lottery and combine all come together in mid-May. You'll be welcome to participate vociferously in the post-combine big-board compilation threads.

Check out the guy over here with the fancy pants words!

 

[Predator]

Banchero
Davis
Sharpe
Holmgren
Ivey

 

[Hoopguru]

Ugh... after the moves he just made Joe needs to be taken out of the GM position not given more power and autonomy.

If there is a new GM not sure they would simply move Joe out of the basketball side. Seems pretty much a survivor with Vulcans. He may be sign a new 3-5 year deal too as gm?

 

[blazerkor]

If there is a new GM not sure they would simply move Joe out of the basketball side. Seems pretty much a survivor with Vulcans. He may be sign a new 3-5 year deal too as gm?

Yeah, I think if you're Vulcan that you either choose to offer the permanent GM gig to Joe and keep the front office in place that has basically been the same over the last decade just having promoted the number 2 guy to number one or you bring in a new GM and give that GM the autonomy to build their front office the way they see fit. They'd probably want some continuity and Joe seems like he's been that guy for a while but I doubt many new GMs would want that situation and I doubt that Joe would either but I guess it's possible. I guess if they wanted to bring in someone like Brent Barry or maybe someone really high profile like Grant Hill, they might make that person President of Basketball operations and let them decide if they want Joe to stay on as the GM but number two guy... kind of like what the Sixers did with Morey and Brand. Again I don't know if either the new person or Joe would like that.

For the record I want all of the major decision makers from the Olshey era gone. I feel like they failed to capitalize on what Dame could have been over the last decade, they failed to capitalize on CJ's value when it was the highest and then once Olshey who many of us thought was the biggest problem was taken out of their way they made trades that showed that they aren't capable of walking (making the team better during transactions) and chewing gum (shedding a little salary) at the same time. For those of you who think clearing all of that salary off the books or the TPE have value that equates to the way we got fleeced when it comes to asset value, I just have to say that the TPE is only as good as the picks that you attach to it and the lack of valuable draft picks coming back in Joe's trades are my biggest complaint.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Would that be who we think the Blazers should pick or a ranking of the top prospects as BPA?

If it's the latter, I'd probably go ...

1. Jabari
2. Ivey
3. Sharpe
4. Banchero
5. Holmgren
6. Mathurin
7. Griffin
8. Murray

I realize I'm waaaaaaaay higher on Sharpe than anyone right now, but his shot tool in my mind is up there with Smith's, he has length and is athletic. If I'm picking at the top of a draft, I'm trying to hit home runs, not pick someone with a high floor who projects as a No. 3-4 starter.

My thought is to have everyone vote on who they would rate as the BPA at each spot given available options, and thus come up with a consensus big board. Of course, how each person defines BPA will vary. Some will focus on floor, some on ceiling, some on offense, defense, versatility, etc... Sharpe near the top could absolutely make perfect sense.

 

[TBpup]

Big night schedule wise for the Blazers:

Knicks @ Hornets: Knicks tied with Pelicans in the win column. Would like a win to keep the Knicks ahead of NOP. Pels tied in wins with Knicks and Wizards.
Hawks @ Pistons: Would like Pistons win. This one is more complicated but it has to do with them wanting Banchero.
Kings @ Pacers: Both teams 2 wins behind the Blazers. SAC has the easier remaining schedule, so hoping for a Pacers win.
Spurs @ Blazers: This is a MUST lose game for the Blazers. Otherwise they will be 3 wins ahead of either SAC or IND, and SAN would pass them in the Lottery rankings.

 

[glazeduck]

Spurs @ Blazers: This is a MUST lose game for the Blazers. Otherwise they will be 3 wins ahead of either SAC or IND, and SAN would pass them in the Lottery rankings.

They're all MUST-lose from here on out...

 

[PCmor7]

They're all MUST-lose from here on out...

I wanted us to split with the Pelicans down the stretch but we can't afford that now with the win in Detroit.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

Just saw that we have 67% chance of getting NO pick that’s not nearly as high as I had hoped. Kind of scary to think there’s a good chance we lose the pick 33%

 

[blazerkor]

I wanted us to split with the Pelicans down the stretch but we can't afford that now with the win in Detroit.

Yeah, looking at the schedules, if the Lakers can step up and the Spurs can too, both beating the Pelicans when they face them and winning more than just those games. The Lakers need to get two wins against the Pelicans and at least also beat OKC. The Spurs need to beat us all three times, the Pelicans and Rockets. The Pelicans can only beat us and the Kings. The way that would end up is the Lakers having one more win than the Pelicans and Spurs and the Spurs holding the tie breaker with the Pelicans having beat them two out of their three games. It would be great if the Kings beat the Pelicans too because that would give the Kings one more win, making it easier for us to tank under them and putting the Pelicans in the 11th spot in the West by themselves. That being said, I really think if you look at the schedules, if the Spurs and Lakers just win the games against the teams they're going to be betting favorites against and the Pelicans, and then the Pelicans lose to those two teams and everyone they will be betting underdogs to then the Pelicans should miss the play ins.

We obviously need to lose out and that will give us a good chance at the 5th worst record in the league. The Pacers are going to be harder to out tank than the Kings so we need the Pacers to beat the Kings tonight, beat the Pistons when they play them and then get one unlikely win to force a tie with us which I think is just a coin flip if neither team advances through the lotto and I think they'd have equal lotto odds to us or they could pull off two unlikely wins which would be great because we would then have the 5th worst record outright. If we don't lose out and win a few of our remaining games we won't likely pass either the Pacers or Kings and will end up where we're at in the 7th slot for the lotto as long as we at least lose our games against the Spurs.

 

[blazerkor]

Just saw that we have 67% chance of getting NO pick that’s not nearly as high as I had hoped. Kind of scary to think there’s a good chance we lose the pick 33%

That's got to be some BPI based modeling when projecting odds on that. The fact is that the Pelicans will have to stay ahead of the Spurs, beat the Lakers and the loser of the 7/8 game or get lucky in the lotto for the pick not to. So I guess if the modeling gives them a 16% chance of making the playoffs and then just adds that to the 16.9% chance that they currently have if they stay where they're at and miss the playoffs, that would be right around 33%. That's not likely though because you can't add the two percentages to give you an accurate scenario so the modeling must be giving them a higher than 16% chance to stay in the play ins and get into the playoffs. I honestly think we'll just have to dodge whatever lottery odds they end up with between 7.1% and 26.3%. I think if AD is healthy then it's a two horse race for the eighth spot in the West because I think the Wolves will definitely win that 7/8 game. If AD isn't able to play or is playing but too injured to be effective then I think the Wolves at 7 and Clippers at 8 is almost a lock. I guess the Clippers/Pelicans game on April 3rd could sway my opinion but as of right now that's how I see it.

Regardless this is a shitty situation that Cronin put us in having to worry about losing out on this pick in a number of ways. If that pick becomes the Bucks 2025 pick, I hope Cronin is told that day that he's out of the running for the permanent GM position and even if the pick does convey to us I hope the Vulcans are giving serious thought to another candidate.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

That's got to be some BPI based modeling when projecting odds on that. The fact is that the Pelicans will have to stay ahead of the Spurs, beat the Lakers and the loser of the 7/8 game or get lucky in the lotto for the pick not to. So I guess if the modeling gives them a 16% chance of making the playoffs and then just adds that to the 16.9% chance that they currently have if they stay where they're at and miss the playoffs, that would be right around 33%. That's not likely though because you can't add the two percentages to give you an accurate scenario so the modeling must be giving them a higher than 16% chance to stay in the play ins and get into the playoffs. I honestly think we'll just have to dodge whatever lottery odds they end up with between 7.1% and 26.3%. I think if AD is healthy then it's a two horse race for the eighth spot in the West because I think the Wolves will definitely win that 7/8 game. If AD isn't able to play or is playing but too injured to be effective then I think the Wolves at 7 and Clippers at 8 is almost a lock. I guess the Clippers/Pelicans game on April 3rd could sway my opinion but as of right now that's how I see it.

Regardless this is a shitty situation that Cronin put us in having to worry about losing out on this pick in a number of ways. If that pick becomes the Bucks 2025 pick, I hope Cronin is told that day that he's out of the running for the permanent GM position and even if the pick does convey to us I hope the Vulcans are giving serious thought to another candidate.

unfortunately Cronin got caught getting to close to his players and thus lost leverage because he let CJ pick his destination.

 

[blazerkor]

unfortunately Cronin got caught getting to close to his players and thus lost leverage because he let CJ pick his destination.

Yeah, that just can't be the mindset of a GM. Of course try to do the best for a guy that's given so much to this organization but not at the cost of the organization itself. I think in every trade Cronin has made he's shown poor judgment and an inability to be an effective negotiator. So I think the writing should already be on the walls but I trust the Vulcans to make good decisions even less than I trust Cronin to.

 

[Pinwheel1]

unfortunately Cronin got caught getting to close to his players and thus lost leverage because he let CJ pick his destination.

I kind of like Hart. I think he is the kind of SG guard that many of us were hoping to have on the floor next to Dame and/or CJ.
Now he will be next to Dame and/or Simons.

 

[blazerkor]

I kind of like Hart. I think he is the kind of SG guard that many of us were hoping to have on the floor next to Dame and/or CJ.
Now he will be next to Dame and/or Simons.

I like Hart too but he's not as valuable as CJ... not even close. He is a better fit though. The fact is if we would have gotten one more first rounder out of the Pelicans then that would have been a fair trade but we didn't and the conditions on the first rounder we did get are really scary. That's why I say Cronin fucked this trade up but it wasn't a catastrophic failure. The Clippers trade was.

 

[Hoopguru]

Yeah, that just can't be the mindset of a GM. Of course try to do the best for a guy that's given so much to this organization but not at the cost of the organization itself. I think in every trade Cronin has made he's shown poor judgment and an inability to be an effective negotiator. So I think the writing should already be on the walls but I trust the Vulcans to make good decisions even less than I trust Cronin to.

Junior training ground!

 

[Idog1976]

Would that be who we think the Blazers should pick or a ranking of the top prospects as BPA?

If it's the latter, I'd probably go ...

1. Jabari
2. Ivey
3. Sharpe
4. Banchero
5. Holmgren
6. Mathurin
7. Griffin
8. Murray

I realize I'm waaaaaaaay higher on Sharpe than anyone right now, but his shot tool in my mind is up there with Smith's, he has length and is athletic. If I'm picking at the top of a draft, I'm trying to hit home runs, not pick someone with a high floor who projects as a No. 3-4 starter.

Is that just your BPA list or who you want Portland to draft, or is it both? I'm just asking because I feel like we need to really draft the positions we need and there are prospects at PF/C who will be available even if we don't get lucky and get a high pick. I would kinda lose it if we draft a guy who isn't 6'8" or taller the one area I feel super comfortable with our rotation is the 2 guard with Hart and Ant there. I actually agree almost across the board in terms of talent, I just don't want to draft a guy who will be buried behind Ant and Lillard in the hopes some team pays his actual value. Or are you of the opinion that we should trade Lillard which I don't agree with but I do see that to do so would actually be a reasonable route to go much as it pains me. I'm just trying to get a sense of your ranking here. It seems you are going for BPA height be damned?

 

[LayneStaley]

I would love Sharpe but I think they are really locked in on this win with Dame thing. My guess is a F/C or trade.

 

[calvin natt]

I would love Sharpe but I think they are really locked in on this win with Dame thing. My guess is a F/C or trade.

Ugh

 

[PCmor7]

Is that just your BPA list or who you want Portland to draft, or is it both? I'm just asking because I feel like we need to really draft the positions we need and there are prospects at PF/C who will be available even if we don't get lucky and get a high pick. I would kinda lose it if we draft a guy who isn't 6'8" or taller the one area I feel super comfortable with our rotation is the 2 guard with Hart and Ant there. I actually agree almost across the board in terms of talent, I just don't want to draft a guy who will be buried behind Ant and Lillard in the hopes some team pays his actual value. Or are you of the opinion that we should trade Lillard which I don't agree with but I do see that to do so would actually be a reasonable route to go much as it pains me. I'm just trying to get a sense of your ranking here. It seems you are going for BPA height be damned?

Yeah. This is my top in a vacuum.

 

[TBpup]

Big night schedule wise for the Blazers:

Knicks @ Hornets: Knicks tied with Pelicans in the win column. Would like a win to keep the Knicks ahead of NOP. Pels tied in wins with Knicks and Wizards.
Hawks @ Pistons: Would like Pistons win. This one is more complicated but it has to do with them wanting Banchero.
Kings @ Pacers: Both teams 2 wins behind the Blazers. SAC has the easier remaining schedule, so hoping for a Pacers win.
Spurs @ Blazers: This is a MUST lose game for the Blazers. Otherwise they will be 3 wins ahead of either SAC or IND, and SAN would pass them in the Lottery rankings.

Knicks @ Hornets: Knicks tied with Pelicans in the win column. Would like a win to keep the Knicks ahead of NOP. Pels tied in wins with Knicks and Wizards. Knicks won.
Hawks @ Pistons: Would like Pistons win. This one is more complicated but it has to do with them wanting Banchero. Pistons won.
Kings @ Pacers: Both teams 2 wins behind the Blazers. SAC has the easier remaining schedule, so hoping for a Pacers win. Kings won. Either way helped the Blazers.
Spurs @ Blazers: This is a MUST lose game for the Blazers. Otherwise they will be 3 wins ahead of either SAC or IND, and SAN would pass them in the Lottery rankings. Blazers lost.

All in all, a very good night for Blazer ping pong balls.

 

[Idog1976]

Yeah. This is my top in a vacuum.

May I ask who would you like the Blazers to draft?

I personally want them to take Smith if we get a high enough pick and then if possible also get Duren. Those two are the top of my board. I am higher on Duren than many, but I really like him. I also like Banchero as well as Keegan Murray. Jovic intrigues me, but that would have to be if none of the aforementioned Smith, Banchero, Duren, and Murray are available with say the Pelicans pick. I am drafting to a huge degree on size. I just think this team needs guys, preferably on cheap contracts, who are 6'8" and above. Those are also the most expensive contracts for veteran players.

 

[BankTeller]

May I ask who would you like the Blazers to draft?

I personally want them to take Smith if we get a high enough pick and then if possible also get Duren. Those two are the top of my board. I am higher on Duren than many, but I really like him. I also like Banchero as well as Keegan Murray. Jovic intrigues me, but that would have to be if none of the aforementioned Smith, Banchero, Duren, and Murray are available with say the Pelicans pick. I am drafting to a huge degree on size. I just think this team needs guys, preferably on cheap contracts, who are 6'8" and above. Those are also the most expensive contracts for veteran players.

Yeah I think the best case scenario is that we land high enough to draft Smith or Holmgren with our own pick and draft Duren with the NOP pick. I think drafting two of the three bigs would transform our frontcourt for the next decade.

I think I’d rather have Smith because I’m not exactly convinced Holmgren will be a 4, but I’m happy with either guy. You can find a cheap third string big that can shoot like Hartenstein to round out the bigs. Then next years PF/C are:

Smith/Watford/Brown III
Nurkic/Duren/Hartenstein

 

[PCmor7]

May I ask who would you like the Blazers to draft?

I personally want them to take Smith if we get a high enough pick and then if possible also get Duren. Those two are the top of my board. I am higher on Duren than many, but I really like him. I also like Banchero as well as Keegan Murray. Jovic intrigues me, but that would have to be if none of the aforementioned Smith, Banchero, Duren, and Murray are available with say the Pelicans pick. I am drafting to a huge degree on size. I just think this team needs guys, preferably on cheap contracts, who are 6'8" and above. Those are also the most expensive contracts for veteran players.

I've actually been trying to process that and I kind of change my mind from day to day because I usually believe you draft BPA and let things work out after that. However, this year the Blazers have a very specific need for a PF and a general need for shooters ... so if Ivey was the BPA at their pick, I'd probably try to pull a Kevin Pritchard and deal that pick for a pick a couple of slots down.

After watching Duren a couple of times late in the season, my opinion on him has dropped. I love what he could be. I just have a lot of questions about his ability to get there. He doesn't seem to even try to do a lot of the little things well. He's so far away fundamentally from being a contributor on a good NBA team and I think the odds of him reaching his potential are slim.

Honestly, I think there are a couple of international prospects that are as good that we could get in the second round.

Anyway, to answer your question ...

1. Smith
2. Sharpe
3. Banchero (awfully close between Smith and Banchero for me; 5 minutes from now I could go Banchero at 2 but I think he has star ceiling at a position of need while Sharpe has superstar ceiling at a quality of need)
4. Mathurin
5. Murray
6. Griffin
7. Chet (I just can't watch him play and not think of Shawn Bradley or Zach Collins; I think him and Portland might be a worse match than him in other places because the pressure and expectations put on him by the Pacific Northwest fanbase are unrealistic).

From there, I think we get into the realm of guys like Sochan, Koloko, Eason, and Tshiebwe who I don't think are lottery values or are later in the lottery than the Blazers would be picking, at least.

Ivey gets high on this list only if the Blazers trade Ant or Dame. I think Ivey is a superstar-potential player but at a position where the Blazers are so set right now.

 

[wizenheimer]

Portland is in 7th right now....I don't think they will move ahead of either Sacramento or Indiana. Those teams are tanking quite well and have a lead

 

[Labinot41]

Portland is in 7th right now....I don't think they will move ahead of either Sacramento or Indiana. Those teams are tanking quite well and have a lead

Thats okay, we still have a decent chance to get into the top 4

 

[MickZagger]

Portland is in 7th right now....I don't think they will move ahead of either Sacramento or Indiana. Those teams are tanking quite well and have a lead

Not so fast my friend….

You need to believe in the tank harder

 

[illmatic99]

Is it too soon to start a series of threads to determine a forum big board? Probably should wait until after the tourney, yeah?

Gonna do tiers.

1. Paolo
2. Ivey
3. Smith

4. Chet

5. Davis

6. Mathurin
7. Murray

Paolo/Ivey/Smith neck and neck for me, slight edge to Paolo/Ivey this week.

could change, but i'm pretty comfortable with this for now.

I have no idea what to rely on to value Sharpe higher than any of these guys.