Keeping the #3 pick.....AND Dame

[TBpup]

More and more, podcasts, reporters, and Draft insiders seem to think that it will take a very good deal to get the pick from the Blazers. Givony, Stein, Windhorst, Woj, all seem to think that keeping the pick and Dame at least for now, might be the direction the Blazers go.

That doesn't mean they don't move other players like Ant, Nurk, or whatever else they can come up with to make a move, but that may be later in the year sometime before the Trade Deadline. By then, Portland will have more pieces signed, more tradeable contracts, and have at least a little bit of an idea how much more Sharpe is progressing and how the new young pieces are developing.

And since Portland is more than 1 player away, I'm still intrigued by some of the #3 for #6/#11 from Orlando with whatever other pieces are needed to make it work. That gives the Blazers more young talent and more pieces to use in a trade later one or more depth if they were to move some of the pieces they will sign in the off-season.

I'm not sure what Ant + #23 gets them in terms of an impact player at, before or after the Draft. The market for Nurk is, well, what you would expect. The Blazers really need to clear the pick owed to Chicago to give them more leverage in making trades.

Keeping the pick and Dame for now doesn't guarantee Dame stays. Cronin may talk him into a trial run to see what they get through the Draft and how those players develop. If they don't, Dame may say that it isn't working and request/demand a trade by the deadline in February 2024.

Mike Richman went into this as well in this morning's Lock On Blazers podcast.

 

[MickZagger]

If that’s the case then Cronin has decided to rebuild. It’s his way of getting Lillard to demand a trade

 

[BankTeller]

I’ve always advocated for keeping the pick or trading down.

#3 for #6 and #11, I’m still intrigued by. I’d say get it done if Wagner is in the deal. He is a starting SF that would work in this system. The question is would ORL covet #3 enough to do #3, #23, and Nas for #6, #11, and Wagner. I’ve seen a comment here saying they could possibly consider it because of the redundancy between Wagner and Banchero? I personally don’t see them as redundant at all and think Wagner could be a very good facilitator at the SF position. Nothing crazy, but probably will be a 5apg kind of guy.

 

[Tince]

The best scenario is making a trade that makes the Blazers contender next year.

The next best scenario is stacking up a roster of young players that can have a large championship window.

So, no, keeping #3 + Dame fails to accomplish either of those, and therefore is not the best scenario. It may end up being the best option though.

 

[glazeduck]

The best way to think about this is a struggling relationship... At this point, we've been married to Dame for years and clearly want to make it work. Might as well go to couples therapy and do whatever we can to try to keep making it work without diving head-first into divorce.

Barring major injury or a seriously public trade demand (even that's negligible), Dame's value isn't drastically rising or falling by the trade deadline. Might as well see what you can do with Ant/Nurk/23/Future 1s, etc., see how he fits next to Scoot or Miller (or ENTER THOMPSON TWIN HERE), etc. We owe it to him to see how that plays out, so long as it's something he's onboard with...

 

[tykendo]

The only way i see the Blazers keeping #3 is if ,Miller falls to them and ,he's Kevin Freaking Durant reincarnate. Great immediately . Bird, Magic, Jordan. If he's less than, and needs multiple years to develop, pass.

 

[wizenheimer]

different fans want different things. But there are probably only 3 people who count in this process: Jody Allen, Cronin, and Dame. And maybe also Mike Schmitz. I'm pretty sure that JA and Cronin want Dame to stay a Blazer.

I'd start by saying that Shaedon Sharpe has likely modified management's view of the value of a top lottery pick. Blazers got a first hand view of Sharpe's upside. I'd bet the Blazers place a lot higher value on a 3rd pick now than what they would have 13 months ago. So, yeah, it is one of the least surprising things, at least it is to me, that Portland is rumored more and more to be keeping the pick. Obviously this could be in part a way to build negotiating position of strength. But it's also reflecting the value Portland places on that pick. I think moving from 5 to 3 has had an impact on Blazer thinking as well

it's also probably the case that the Blazers would not have hired Schmitz if they were planning to trade away 1st round picks at the pace Olshey traded them away

and it's safe to say that Dame really really wants to stay in Portland. He just wants a chance to be on a contender. So I have never felt his decision would pivot entirely on what Portland does with the pick. He'll want to see how Cronin handles the off-season and summer. And how the Blazers look in training camp including if the 3r pick looks like a contrbutor. If Dame was going to ask for a trade, I have always thought the earliest he'd do so would be close to the start of the season or heading into the trade deadline

 

[SlyPokerDog]

There will be teams that crash and burn during the regular season and will look to blow things up. Draft BPA, highlight them during garbage time of games, make a better trade midseason than you could on draft night.

 

[tykendo]

If Miller comes in, works out, and everyone is blown away. They will pick him. But he has to be there 1st. If Miller is a generational talent like Durant, i doubt the Hornets let him get past their pick.

 

[Predator]

I’ve advocated this scenario for a while as I really don’t see teams that can give us the value we need for Dame or #3.

If Miller is there at 3, then I’m taking him. If not, I’m trading back for Whitmore or Walker; players that I think are pretty close to helping win “now” on some level. Maybe Ausar. Maybe Amen. Maybe Hendricks. Depends on workouts. Then I’m trading up for Lively.

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think the value will be there for the 3rd pick. I think we will make our selection and then deal with the consequences. If Dame asks out, so be it.

Here's the problem though, I think it might be better to trade him this summer because whether we keep Dame or trade Dame is going to dictate what we do in free agency or what we do with Nurk/Simons.

 

[wizenheimer]

I guess people have confidence in their ability to judge players from workouts they didn't attend. I've never been able to gauge a player by how he does drills in a workout. But I've never seen a workout, just the video

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I vote yes, #3 is on a cheap contract plus we retain rotational players like Ant and Nurk. I view Nurk as overpaid, but he still has value playing over a minimum replacement player. If we hit on #3 as well as Sharpe taking a step forward this team could realistically contend in a few years.

Trading the #3 pick for a veteran doesn't have as high of a ceiling for the Blazers. A high ceiling gives this franchise the best opportunity to contend. A veteran would have a lower floor, so if you want certainty of being a team that can make the playoffs but lose in the first round a veteran is a better path. I'd prefer the better chance at a championship.

The one exception Id make is if Cronin can trade for Giannis, Embiid, two of Brown/Bridges/Siakam, etc. Then we would be a legit contender. I'm going to assume that extremely unlikely opportunity is not available. If the Blazers can't become a contender in a trade of the #3 pick they should keep it and draft BPA.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

The only way i see the Blazers keeping #3 is if ,Miller falls to them and ,he's Kevin Freaking Durant reincarnate. Great immediately . Bird, Magic, Jordan. If he's less than, and needs multiple years to develop, pass.

Players don't normally fall into such extremes. Durant was mediocre as a rookie, Scottie Barnes was helping a team win as a rookie. Totally possible a player like Miller could be a real contributor as a rookie and project to be a key playoff leader in year 3. Kawhi and Wade led teams in playoffs their first few years, drafted at #4 and #15.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I’ve always advocated for keeping the pick or trading down.

#3 for #6 and #11, I’m still intrigued by. I’d say get it done if Wagner is in the deal. He is a starting SF that would work in this system. The question is would ORL covet #3 enough to do #3, #23, and Nas for #6, #11, and Wagner. I’ve seen a comment here saying they could possibly consider it because of the redundancy between Wagner and Banchero? I personally don’t see them as redundant at all and think Wagner could be a very good facilitator at the SF position. Nothing crazy, but probably will be a 5apg kind of guy.

This seems too good to be true. But I would be willing to add a future 1st to get it done. If we still have SS, 2 young players from this draft, Wagner, Watford, and Ant then we are not giving up our future and can afford to give up a future protected 1st.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I don't think the value will be there for the 3rd pick. I think we will make our selection and then deal with the consequences. If Dame asks out, so be it.

Here's the problem though, I think it might be better to trade him this summer because whether we keep Dame or trade Dame is going to dictate what we do in free agency or what we do with Nurk/Simons.

If we pivot to trade Dame by the February deadline I'd say more important than Ant/Nurk trades is how much do we resign Grant for?

 

[HoopsFanAZ]

The idea of #3 (like the hyperbolic value of Bridges touted and spouted by Brooklyn through willing media) needs the PR of the work-outs — a high value asset … while at the same time seeing the reality of the top prospects up close for Cronin, Dame, et.al.

This package of decisions — keep or trade 3, build around or trade Dame … and others … must be a go for it summer, NOT the trade deadline where the assets/trade pieces — Dame, Ant, Nurkic, Nas — have their value, now. Depreciation of them during the season is a risk.

[The Orlando TPs got my attention. Nurkic + Nas + 3 + 23 (or a future 1st) = WCJ + Franz Wagner + 6 + 11. Mo Wagner as a back-up big in free agency. Then, Ant to the Nets with picks. Greed is good.]

 

[SharpesTriumph]

different fans want different things. But there are probably only 3 people who count in this process: Jody Allen, Cronin, and Dame. And maybe also Mike Schmitz. I'm pretty sure that JA and Cronin want Dame to stay a Blazer.

I'd start by saying that Shaedon Sharpe has likely modified management's view of the value of a top lottery pick. Blazers got a first hand view of Sharpe's upside. I'd bet the Blazers place a lot higher value on a 3rd pick now than what they would have 13 months ago. So, yeah, it is one of the least surprising things, at least it is to me, that Portland is rumored more and more to be keeping the pick. Obviously this could be in part a way to build negotiating position of strength. But it's also reflecting the value Portland places on that pick. I think moving from 5 to 3 has had an impact on Blazer thinking as well

it's also probably the case that the Blazers would not have hired Schmitz if they were planning to trade away 1st round picks at the pace Olshey traded them away

and it's safe to say that Dame really really wants to stay in Portland. He just wants a chance to be on a contender. So I have never felt his decision would pivot entirely on what Portland does with the pick. He'll want to see how Cronin handles the off-season and summer. And how the Blazers look in training camp including if the 3r pick looks like a contrbutor. If Dame was going to ask for a trade, I have always thought the earliest he'd do so would be close to the start of the season or heading into the trade deadline

The Blazers can use the #3 pick but do better signing veteran free agents. If they had a Bruce Brown / Hartenstein/ Malik Monk/ etc pickup, or heck just a 3rd string veteran center taller than 6'8; they'd be in a much better position to win many of those games in the regular season than what happened last year.

So use the #3 to get an elite youth prospects and use your other tools to get Dame his win now superfriends. We should get rid of the Greg Brown, Jabari Walker, Reddish, Keon, etc level of 13th man additions which are weak longshot prospects anyways and give Dame legit vets.

 

[BankTeller]

The idea of #3 (like the hyperbolic value of Bridges touted and spouted by Brooklyn through willing media) needs the PR of the work-outs — a high value asset … while at the same time seeing the reality of the top prospects up close for Cronin, Dame, et.al.

This package of decisions — keep or trade 3, build around or trade Dame … and others … must be a go for it summer, NOT the trade deadline where the assets/trade pieces — Dame, Ant, Nurkic, Nas — have their value, now. Depreciation of them during the season is a risk.

[The Orlando TPs got my attention. Nurkic + Nas + 3 + 23 (or a future 1st) = WCJ + Franz Wagner + 6 + 11. Mo Wagner as a back-up big in free agency. Then, Ant to the Nets with picks. Greed is good.]

It’s already far fetched to expect Wagner back for #3, don’t think WCJ will be included in a deal like that.

Wagner + WCJ is a lot to give up for #3, especially when they have to also add two lotto picks.

 

[BankTeller]

This seems too good to be true. But I would be willing to add a future 1st to get it done. If we still have SS, 2 young players from this draft, Wagner, Watford, and Ant then we are not giving up our future and can afford to give up a future protected 1st.

I’d be willing to give up a protected 1st as well, but then we’d have to give up #23 to get our pick back. At that point, are we talking about giving up two of our 1sts?

 

[Pinwheel1]

I’d be willing to give up a protected 1st as well, but then we’d have to give up #23 to get our pick back. At that point, are we talking about giving up two of our 1sts?

Unless Chicago would take 4-5 2nds. I would if I were them.

 

[Natebishop3]

If we pivot to trade Dame by the February deadline I'd say more important than Ant/Nurk trades is how much do we resign Grant for?

Yeah, I forgot about Grant. That's the problem.... if we keep Dame, there are going to be some moves that won't make any sense long term. I guess if we sign Grant, we could turn around and flip him at the deadline.

 

[Stevenson]

I would be shocked if they kept the pick. It's go big or go home time. And if we don't go big, Dame's gone next year for sure.

 

[MickZagger]

You trade Lillard before he demands a trade. Otherwise his value will just continue to plummet. And we’ll get Otis Thorpe and Randolph Childress.

 

[Whyachi]

Phoenix wants to fix their team
Dallas wants to fix there team
LAC owner is nuts and will pay for talent
Memphis is too good to blow it up
OKC is young, but loaded with strong athletes
Minnesota can't tank, they have no picks
Lakers cashed out to become a menace
Sacramento's good year was no fluke

What I'm getting at is it will be extremely difficult to jump this pack and contend with Lillard's Blazers next season. Damian is making a big fat check, and clearly doesn't mind taking the last month of the season off to tank for picks.

Keep the hot new rookie, let Damian play grumpy, Lillard's shooting efficiency is off the charts. Rebuilding a team through the draft with an iconic NBA superstar playing at peak performance is an unusual tactic, but it's clearly working in Portland's favor.

 

[e_blazer]

If Miller is available, I don’t see a problem with keeping the pick and Dame as long as other moves are made to add more vets. Trade Ant, #23 and a 2nd for OG. Sign a decent backup PG. Use the MLE to get a solid vet backup C. Start Dame, Sharpe, OG, Grant, and Nurk. Miller gets time at SF and PF. Thybulle backs up Sharpe. Vet PG backs up Dame. New C backs up Nurk, with Eubanks and Watford getting spot minutes at 4 and 5. That’s a lineup that should make the playoffs and is only going to get better over time as Sharpe and Miller grow their games. I’m not sure if I see a reasonable way to make it work if Scoot is the pick.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Phoenix wants to fix their team
Dallas wants to fix there team
LAC owner is nuts and will pay for talent
Memphis is too good to blow it up
OKC is young, but loaded with strong athletes
Minnesota can't tank, they have no picks
Lakers cashed out to become a menace
Sacramento's good year was no fluke

What I'm getting at is it will be extremely difficult to jump this pack and contend with Lillard's Blazers next season. Damian is making a big fat check, and clearly doesn't mind taking the last month of the season off to tank for picks.

Keep the hot new rookie, let Damian play grumpy, Lillard's shooting efficiency is off the charts. Rebuilding a team through the draft with an iconic NBA superstar playing at peak performance is an unusual tactic, but it's clearly working in Portland's favor.

Not saying those teams won't be good, but as of right now, if we make one good move and re-sign Grant....we could match up with any of them. A healthy Clipper team would worry me the most. Sacramento is not going away, as Fox and Sabonis are good, but they are not scary good. Now part of my optimism is a much better Sharpe and I admit he is still another year away from being a star, none-the-less he will be better. I really just think we are one good forward away.

For example, you slip Wagner into the starting lineup (for #3) and not lose any of our depth, plus add a backup 5 with the MLE (or 23) along with Ant, Thybulle, Little, and Watford...you have a chance. Not saying it is ideal, just that the competition is not that great as of today either.

 

[RonBrewer]

This could turn out true and this scenario could change a thousand times between now and the draft. Could also be the Brass bucking up and getting it out there that we aren't going to get jacked in any trade.
How bad do other teams want Scoot?
Time will tell

 

[HansenYang]

If we pivot to trade Dame by the February deadline I'd say more important than Ant/Nurk trades is how much do we resign Grant for?

Grant in a >$25M contract, is negative value

 

[Pinwheel1]

Grant in a >$25M contract, is negative value

Granted talking heads /writers don't know shit, probably less than we do, but they do say there are a lot of teams who value him.
I think 25 mil is a good number, but we will have to go over it to keep him IMO. Can we afford not to resign him if we choose not to go the rebuild route?