Keeping the Oden angst in perspective.

[Hank The Dwarf]

Absolutely right.

The amazing thing is that OKC won at a .280 clip - but amazing enough - they only won 23.6% of the time when Durant is on the court. They lose more when he plays... (Not s surprise when you consider that they were 5-3 without him in the line-up.

What we do know about Oden is that we win more with him on the court than we do when Joel plays - the problem we have with Oden is that he can not stay on the court long enough. The problem OKC has with Durant is that they can not win when he plays.

Interesting problem...

ridiculous argument - get back to me when you have a greater sample size of games.

Durant is a great basketball player - only a fool would argue that Oden is better right now.

 

[hasoos]

Try not to take things out of perspective. Yao Ming is one of the top 2 centers in the league right now. If he could run the floor better, he would be #1 for sure.

A lot of folks seem to forget the fact that guys that undergo Microfracture surgery do not get their explosiveness back until the year following the "return" year. Most of them go through a period of adjustment where they not only have to rehab the knee, but most of them undergo some weight reduction to lower the stress as well.

I know Zbo isn't the "King of explosiveness", but you could tell there was a huge difference in his lift and speed of being able to jump the year following surgery. The same with Amare Stoudemire, who also said it took a long time to be able to trust his knee again. The whole fact that GO was rim checked a few times this season should wake you up to that fact alone. I remember watching Greg in the first game of summer league his rookie year, and on one of the first plays, some guy tried to launch a floater over the top of him. He damn near touched the top of the backboard to block that shot and got called for goaltending just to show the guy he couldn't get it over the top of him. That is the Greg Oden I am waiting for to come back.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Try not to take things out of perspective. Yao Ming is one of the top 2 centers in the league right now. If he could run the floor better, he would be #1 for sure.

A lot of folks seem to forget the fact that guys that undergo Microfracture surgery do not get their explosiveness back until the year following the "return" year. Most of them go through a period of adjustment where they not only have to rehab the knee, but most of them undergo some weight reduction to lower the stress as well.

I know Zbo isn't the "King of explosiveness", but you could tell there was a huge difference in his lift and speed of being able to jump the year folowing surgery. The same with Amare Stoudemire, who also said it took a long time to be able to trust his knee again. The whole fact that GO was rim checked a few times this season should wake you up to that fact alone. I remembe watching Greg in the first game of summer league his rookie year, and on one of the first plays, some guy tried to launch a floater over the top of him. He damn near touched the top of the backboard to block that shot and got called for goaltending just to show the guy he couldn't get it over the top of him. That is the Greg Oden I am waiting for to come back.

Do you remember the 10 fouls he had that game?

 

[andalusian]

ridiculous argument - get back to me when you have a greater sample size of games.

Durant is a great basketball player - only a fool would argue that Oden is better right now.

2 years of basketball is not a large enough sample size? Durant is a fantastic offensive talent - but he is far from a great basketball player yet - because he does one thing only - score. He does not create for others, he does not defend well, he does not dictate the pace of the game.

In Durant's NBA career he had been on a 20 win team and on a 23 win team. I can't remember his stats from the first year - but he was actually a part of only 18 wins in his 2nd year. This means that if he had been present for all 20 wins last year - he has 38 wins under his belt as an NBA player - which is less than Oden has in 65 games or so.

Look at their rookie years - Oden - who made his living on the defense - actually had a higher PER than Durant had during his rookie year.

They both have a long way to go - but it is time to start paying attention to the impact these guys have on the win/loss columns of their teams. One of them is a scoring machine that does nothing else well. The other is raw, efficient and has a big impact on the team's defense - but can not stay on the court long.

Given what we have seen so far - and their impact on the all important W/L column - it is still clear that you go for the guy that will have a higher impact on wins/losses - and so far it is Oden by a land-slide - even if his individual stats are low - while Durant is the poster-child for the "hollow stats" society.

 

[Wheels]

ridiculous argument - get back to me when you have a greater sample size of games.

says the person writing off Oden after less games...

 

[hasoos]

Do you remember the 10 fouls he had that game?

Yep I do! But he sure as hell could jump a lot higher than he can now. Period.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

says the person writing off Oden after less games...

Oden will be a decent player - I've said that from Day one.

His ceiling is Dekembe Mutombo - his floor is Dampier.


Durant is going to be an elite player.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

I don't see how people can have these conclusive opinions about a player after one season. Most rookies struggle to adjust to the NBA. Our rookie was coming off a major injury, so it's reasonable to expect his struggles would be greater than most.

Some people need to temper their expectations. The important thing is that Oden continues to improve. Oden is doing that. He's became a much better player than the one that started the season. As long as he continues an upward trend of improvement I'll continue to believe in him.

Damn I hate how some fans have unfair expectations and literally are incapable of putting things in context.

 

[jwhoops11]

ridiculous argument - get back to me when you have a greater sample size of games.

Durant is a great basketball player - only a fool would argue that Oden is better right now.

Thus the argument that KP made when drafting Oden...

"One player will win scoring titles, the other championships"

You're right, Durant is a tremendous individual talent, wasted because his team wasn't any better with him on the court.

While Oden is a disapointing individual talent so far, but his team plays far better when he's on the court.

So are stats, or wins the most important to you?

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Thus the argument that KP made when drafting Oden...

"One player will win scoring titles, the other championships"

You're right, Durant is a tremendous individual talent, wasted because his team wasn't any better with him on the court.

While Oden is a disapointing individual talent so far, but his team plays far better when he's on the court.

So are stats, or wins the most important to you?

Durant on the Blazers instead of Oden and we are a better team.

This is not up for debate.

 

[jwhoops11]

Durant on the Blazers instead of Oden and we are a better team.

This is not up for debate.

I bet it's debateable. Durant and Roy take shots from each, and LA who is probably the more effective offensive player of the three in the future loses out on his shot. Not too mention, none of these three are grabbing each others missed shots. Having 3 elite offensive players are great, but there just isn't enough shots to go around for them. Odens offensive rebounds (which will only get better) immediately made us a more effective and efficient offensive team. I realize rebounds and block shots aren't as pretty as 40 point games, but it's the more important stat, when you have players like ROY and LA already on the roster.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

I bet it's debateable. Durant and Roy take shots from each, and LA who is probably the more effective offensive player of the three in the future loses out on his shot. Not too mention, none of these three are grabbing each others missed shots. Having 3 elite offensive players are great, but there just isn't enough shots to go around for them. Odens offensive rebounds (which will only get better) immediately made us a more effective and efficient offensive team. I realize rebounds and block shots aren't as pretty as 40 point games, but it's the more important stat, when you have players like ROY and LA already on the roster.

Durant averaged 6.5 rebs a game from the SG spot - put him back to his natrual Forward position and I bet that gets up to 8 a game.

Having too many guys who are efficient scorers is not a problem. Having a 7 footer who can't seem to travel or get stripped every time he touches the rock is a problem.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If the Blazers had gotten the #2 pick that season, if we had had to "settle" for Durant, I'm betting 90% of his critics on this board would be singing his praises.

Oden has been a disappointment, so people feel the need to belittle Durant. It may be a natural reaction, but it is very silly.

 

[Minstrel]

I think Durant is a fantastic talent. Portland would have been better off with him over Oden this past season, as he's more advanced. However, he didn't have his explosiveness limited right off the bat by microfracture surgery and perimeter players have a much easier time free-lancing on offense, since they're ball-handlers and play in space. Big men who play in the low-post have a lot more to learn, because they're playing a more static game against set defenders, and they're easier to double.

Despite that, Oden, when he was on the floor, had more impact than Durant did as a rookie. Oden fouled a lot, which is his fault, but had he been able to play a proper number of minutes, his raw per-game stats would be exactly what everyone hoped for in his rookie season. Since I don't expect fouling to be a serious problem throughout his career, that's an important point to me.

I'd love to have Durant, but I think Oden's talent is tremendous.

 

[Wheels]

If the Blazers had gotten the #2 pick that season, if we had had to "settle" for Durant, I'm betting 90% of his critics on this board would be singing his praises.

Oden has been a disappointment, so people feel the need to belittle Durant. It may be a natural reaction, but it is very silly.

I agree to that too.. or for example if we selected Durant with the #1 pick and OKC had Oden now.. the people would be harping on how genius KP is for passing on a "monumental bust". While I defend and still think Oden was/will have been the right pick... there is no need to belittle the talent that Durant is. He is a hell of a player, and like KP said at the beginning of the draft process that year "I wish there was a way we could have both"

 

[andalusian]

Oden has been a disappointment, so people feel the need to belittle Durant. It may be a natural reaction, but it is very silly.

This is silly. I was in the Oden camp before and I am in the Oden camp now - and while I agree that Oden's rookie season was disappointing - I am not surprised that Durant's impact is as low as it has been so far.

When they start playing the games for scoring titles - I would change my mind of their value as prospects - so far - Durant falls exactly where I expected him to - elite scorer - and that's where it stands.

The good news - he is young, he has great physical tools to get better where it matters for impacting the win/loss column - but so far - he has not. Part of it is his coaching staff, part of it was the fact that he was given the green light to shoot without repercussions for his lapses on defense. Say what you want about Beasley - at least in Miami - if he did not play defense - he did not get to play. In the long run - it will benefit him. OKC should bring in someone that takes the same approach with Durant. He needs to get better in all aspects of the game - or he will be a perimeter version of Z-Bo.

Let's face it - this is not something we did not know as well from his College days. The LMA Texas team won more than the Durant Texas team. The DJ Texas team won more than the Durant Texas team. This is not something new. It is also not new that people get misty eyed at his great scoring output and fail to notice everything else that he does not do well.

 

[LittleAlex]

But at the top of the season, Oden said his surgically repaired knee was stronger than his other knee. And look at his stats in his first few games back from his foot injury. He produced. So why did his production wane? And why, after a year to get in shape and learn the pro game, did he end up giving us relatively nothing in the playoffs?

Because he was matched up against the best center in the league.

He didn't give Portland nothing, but he sure gave less then he did in the regular season. So did Joel. As did every other Blazer not named Roy or LMA.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Intersting . . Oden came in as the #1 pick with all the hype (remember the rumor of Denver offering Mello for the pick) and Aldridge (at #2?) came in here not as the consensus #2 and not really knowing what you get from him.

Yet only 2 years after Oden has been drafted . . . I would not trade a Lamarcus Aldridge for a Greg Oden.

 

[MrSelfDestruct]

Durant averaged 6.5 rebs a game from the SG spot - put him back to his natrual Forward position and I bet that gets up to 8 a game.

Having too many guys who are efficient scorers is not a problem. Having a 7 footer who can't seem to travel or get stripped every time he touches the rock is a problem.

You aren't accounting for pace. OKC plays a much faster pace than Portland. I highly doubt Durant would be getting 6.5, let alone 8 rpg had Portland drafted him.

From basketball-reference:

Pace Factor: OKC 93.6 (8th of 30)
Pace Factor: 86.6 (30th of 30)

 

[Nikolokolus]

Intersting . . Oden came in as the #1 pick with all the hype (remember the rumor of Denver offering Mello for the pick) and Aldridge (at #2?) came in here not as the consensus #2 and not really knowing what you get from him.


Yet only 2 years after Oden has been drafted . . . I would not trade a Lamarcus Aldridge for a Greg Oden.

Which was part of the underlying meme in my original post, pre-draft hype basically means fuck all.

Just because (so called) experts say something about a player, the proof is in the pudding, the other part was that if there was zero hype surrounding Oden (or any other player for that matter) and we just judged Greg on the merits of the season he played this year we'd probably be somewhat worried about the injury history, but slightly encouraged by the monstrous rebounding percentage, his brute strength and be thinking to ourselves that we might have a pretty damn decent center on our hands in a couple of years.

 

[maxiep]

Oden will be a decent player - I've said that from Day one.

His ceiling is Dekembe Mutombo - his floor is Dampier.


Durant is going to be an elite player.

Randy Foye!

 

[andalusian]

It is absolutely not fair to compare Durant's and Oden's impact on their respect teams. Durant is the leader, playing on a team of inferior supporting casts. GO is a supporting cast playing on a team with superior players. Their roles are totally different, as well as their impact on their teams.

You do raise a worrying trend that Durant's team seems to play better without him, but I still think the sample size is much too small to judge.

Between GO and Durant, I don't think there's much doubt about who has been the better player.

Why is the sample size too small. The 82games.com win%, +/- and on/off is not based on games they won - but data specific to when the player is on the court even in games they lose. He played in 74 games this year and his win% from the time he is on the court is horrible. The net48 point differential when he is on the court is negative. He is bad from the +/-, win% and on/off statistics. What's so small about a sample of 74 games?

The problem is that they treat him like the leader of that team - but he gives them the on/off production of a backup.

For the issue of leadership - let's look at the on/off numbers. Brandon Roy is Portland's leader. Look at his on/off stats per 100 possession - Portland is up by 9.8 points per 100 possessions when Roy is on the court. He is clearly a leader of this team in his production.

Let's take a look at an efficient scorer on a horrible team - Kevin Martin of the Sacramento Kings - his on/off stat shows +3.3 points per 100 possession - the Kings are a better team when Kevin Martin is on the court - one of their problems this year was that he lost a lot of games and even in games he played - they could not play him long minutes.

Let's take a look Kevin Durant - an efficient scorer on a horrible team. We expect him to be at least as good as Kevin Martin, right? Well - no - actually the Thunder are up 8.9 points per 100 possessions when Durant is NOT on the court. Durant is not helping his team when he is on the court. He makes them worse. The best player on OKC - and the one that should be recognized as their leader is Russel Westbrook. The Thunder are 4.1 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the court than when he is not! The entire leadership argument is bogus. Kevin Durant does not make the Thunder better when he plays. He makes them worse. A whole lot worse.

Just for fun - let's look at Greg Oden's On/Off numbers - The Blazers are +2.4 points per 100 possessions when Greg Oden is on. The problem is that he is not on enough. Greg Oden is a more productive player than Pryzbilla - the problem Portland has with him - he can't stay out of foul trouble...

Just to give you an idea of how bad the situation is with Durant - if you look at his numbers from last year - they are the same - the Sonics were a better team when Durant was not on the court...

There is plenty of statistical evidence to show that this is a problem - the sample size is big enough... Kevin Durant is treated like a star by OKC - when he should not be given minutes until he improves his defense and team-play on offense.

The Blazers were very brave when they allowed Brandon Roy to be their leader at the tender age of 23 - but he is special as both a player and a person - he rose to the challenge. The Sonics were dumb beyond hope to trade Ray Allen for Jeff Green and throw the entire leadership thing on a 20 years old kid who is far from ready for it. He is not good at it with his production and he is too young to elevate the play of his teammates with him.

It is not all Durant's fault - the Blazers had continuity - they had a strong coach to lead the team, they even had a team leader on the court for Brandon's rookie year in Zach - which at least showed Roy what not to do. Durant did not have any of these things. He got a new coach in PJ who is not exactly known as leader of man, they shipped the veteran leadership that was there and they have thrown Durant onto the throne and told him "lead us". It failed miserably - and anyone that can not see it should really try to think what the goals of the game of basketball are...

 

[PapaG]

I still don't see how bashing Durant for his team playing moderately better without him for a few games does anything to make Oden's rookie season seem like anything but a disappointment, other than to help people try and justify their knee-jerk and uncritical defense of Oden.

He had a bad year. Hopefully he gets better next year. End of story.

 

[andalusian]

I still don't see how bashing Durant for his team playing moderately better without him for a few games does anything to make Oden's rookie season seem like anything but a disappointment, other than to help people try and justify their irrational and uncritical defense of Oden.

He had a bad year. Hopefully he gets better next year. End of story.

I clearly said that I was disappointed in Oden's year - but I was still happy we chose him over Durant - with the explanation that despite Durant's flashy individual numbers - he is not an impact guy for the win/loss column of a team. Is it really so hard to understand?

If anything - this detailed statistical evidence shows that my defense of the selection of Oden over Durant is NOT irrational. The rational thing to do is to choose the guy that makes your team better. So far in their career - Oden has been a bigger help for his team's win/loss column than Durant. Does not mean that I am happy about Greg's year - because I think he can have a much larger impact.

 

[STOMP]

If the Blazers had gotten the #2 pick that season, if we had had to "settle" for Durant, I'm betting 90% of his critics on this board would be singing his praises.

Oden has been a disappointment, so people feel the need to belittle Durant. It may be a natural reaction, but it is very silly.

aren't you belittling the opinions of those you disagree with? Oden's knee injury that required MF was a disappointment... so was the chipped knee that set him back a month. Oden's rookie year (which for some silly reason you want to call his 2nd) wasn't as great as I'd hoped from a injury free Greg, but nonetheless he was very productive per minute... a PER of 18 is well above average.

Health is a ongoing variable for all basketball players, but if Greg is able to stay relatively healthy he should regain much of the mobility/explosiveness he was lacking his rookie year. With a year of seasoning/experience and regained physical abilities, these dire Oden forcasts may be something we look back on for amusement.

STOMP

 

[oldmangrouch]

aren't you belittling the opinions of those you disagree with? Oden's knee injury that required MF was a disappointment... so was the chipped knee that set him back a month. Oden's rookie year (which for some silly reason you want to call his 2nd) wasn't as great as I'd hoped from a injury free Greg, but nonetheless he was very productive per minute... a PER of 18 is well above average.

Health is a ongoing variable for all basketball players, but if Greg is able to stay relatively healthy he should regain much of the mobility/explosiveness he was lacking his rookie year. With a year of seasoning/experience and regained physical abilities, these dire Oden forcasts may be something we look back on for amusement.

STOMP

Simply an observation on human nature. Portland is probably the only NBA team whose fanbase (or at least a large junk thereof) wouldn't want Durant on their team.

 

[andalusian]

I think the win% stats are much too small of a sample size. The +/- stats, however, do have some legitimacy, and that's certainly a worrying trend. However, I think you somewhat provided an answer for why Durant's play may have hurt his team more than he's helped them.

I think you are misreading the stat. The win% is from all the games - in every game, you take the time that he was on the floor - and during this time - did the team win his period on the court or not? Since he played 74 games - that's a sample size of 74 games. This is floor time statistic. The sample size is not small.

In comparison - Westbrook's floor-time win% is 38.5% - in the 78 games Westbrook played - they won 30 of the games when he was on the floor. Durant on the other hand has only 17 games where his team won the period he was on the floor (in 4 less games, however). This is an astonishing difference between these two guys - and shows clearly that the real impact player on this roster is Westbrook.

You wrote:
I think for the most part, Durant was put into a situation to succeed individually rather succeeding with his team. All the focus has been to let Durant develop, even if it comes at the cost of his team's chances at winning. There was no structure for team success. Durant was pretty much directed to get his, even at the expense of his teammates. I don't like this strategy of developing players, but I don't think this is the first time teams have tried this with their prize rookies.

I guess I'm buying this explanation more than the +/- stats. To my eyes, Durant is a hell of a talent. He's a very productive player, and his stats would back that up. But for whatever reasons, his stats might have come at the expense of his team. Is that his fault? I'm not sure. Perhaps partially, but certainly it's not entirely his fault. Is he a bad player because he get his at the expense of his team? No, I think better coaching would eliminate this.

I think Durant's problem is that he was entrusted in a position where he is not accountable for his mistakes - in any reasonable franchise - he would not be getting the minutes he gets in OKC because of his lack of production elsewhere.

This is truly hypothetical - but if Portland had Durant last year - I would be shocked if he played 35MPG as he did last year at OKC - because Nate would bench him until he started to play defense better and was more efficient on offense. Here is a crazy stat for you about Durant's rookie year - during his rookie year he had a lower offensive rating than Travis Outlaw and a higher defensive rating that Travis Outlaw - that's right - last year he was a worse offensive player and a worse defender. Yikes. Travis played 26MPG last year, as a backup.

Look at Michael Beasley for example - he dominated college sport just as much as Durant did. This year - his PER was much higher than Durant's rookie year, his offensive rating was higher than Durant's last year and his defensive rating was lower (better) than Durant. Beasley got only 25MPG this year and they were hurting for offense next to Wade and for rebounds - but the Heat had a reasonable coach that took the long-term look at him and made him earn his minutes.

It's a crime what OKC is doing to Durant - he is too big a talent and has all the tools to be a much better player than he is - it's a real shame they waste the start of his career this way.

 

[andalusian]

My mistake, but I was under the impression that the win% stat is sort of the same as the win share stat. Would you be able to clarify further what the win% stat represents?

floor time statistics.

When a player is on the floor - did his team win that period or not.

Let's assume that S-Bo played only 2 games this year (not real data, just an example) - both of them blowout losses - but since it is garbage time during his 5 minutes in the first game the Blazers went from down 16 to down 14 - he would get a 1 win for his floor time statistics. Let's say that in the 2nd game the Blazers went down from 23 points deficit to 27 points deficit - this is a loos for his floor-time appearance. This gives him a 50% win% despite the fact that the Blazers lost those 2 hypothetical games.

This stat makes very little sense for garbage time players - it only makes sense for regular rotation guys. Durant is certainly a regular rotation guy - and so was Oden. The real problem for OKC and for the entire Durant googly eye fandom - is that he is just not helping his team win when he is on the floor.

An argument could be said that because he is a starter - he goes against better players and his win% might be worse than the his backup on OKC that gets to go against 2nd and 3rd stringer - and there is something to be said for that - but when you look at other starters for OKC - specifically Westbrook - they have a higher win% - this tells you that Durant's production is questionable. At this point in his career and in his role on OKC's roster - he might be the equivalent of putting a blocked chrome grill on a Yugo. Shiny and pretty - but it is still a POS car and because it is blocked the engine does not get enough air and overheats, thus performing worse than it could...

 

[oldguy]

I'm too lazy to look right now, but didn't you predict much better stats for GO this year? There's a prediction thread for GO's stats at the old site, and I remember not one person predicted GO to have this bad of stats this year. Honestly, what were your predictions for GO last year?

I won't speak for Crim, but I'd be willing to bet that he didn't predict an Oden injury to start the season, followed by another injury at mid-season.

 

[Minstrel]

Appreciate the explanation. So as I understand it, this stat is sort of similar to the +/- stat, where it's totally dependent on the lineup the player played with?

It's +/- but with the amount of + or - stripped off. Having a positive +/- over a segment of play gives a player a "win" and having a negative +/- over a segment of play gives a player a "loss."