Kevin Pelton: Blazers now favored over Clippers without Chris Paul?

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Draco

Draco

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...eles-clippers-compete-chris-paul-kevin-pelton

A day after Stephen Curry's sprained MCL changed the complexion of the Western Conference playoff picture, it shifted again Monday night when Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul left his team's Game 4 loss to thePortland Trail Blazers with a fractured third metacarpal on his right hand.

Now, instead of hoping to face the Golden State Warriors without Curry for part or all of a potential matchup in the Western Conference semifinals, the Clippers find themselves fighting for survival. The Blazers' win tied the series at two games apiece, and the Clippers surely won't have Paul when it resumes with Game 5 on Wednesday in L.A. They might not have forward Blake Griffin either due to a sore quadriceps.

Can the Clippers advance without their star point guard? Or, worse yet, both stars? Let's run the numbers.


Clippers a .500-type team without Paul
As with the Warriors' performance without Curry, don't read too much into how the Clippers played with Paul on the bench during the regular season (getting outscored by 4.4 points per 100 possessions per NBA.com/Stats, one of the largest discrepancies in the league from the plus-11.7 net rating they had with Paul on the court).

Because Doc Rivers likes to play his starters and bench separately instead of mixing them together, the team's performance without Paul mostly reflects the second unit's struggles. In 192 minutes without Paul where starters Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan were on the court, the Clippers outscored opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions according to NBAwowy.com.

That rating is probably a little generous because most of those minutes came during the five games Paul missed early in the season with a sore groin and inflamed rib cartilage, four of which the Clippers hosted and none of them against teams that won more than 45 games. And, of course, the Clippers will still have to play their bench.

Using the multi-year version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and a guess at what Rivers' rotation might look like without Paul suggests the Clippers would play like a 40-win team without him. Their projected offensive rating (102.9) dips slightly below league average with a defensive rating (103.3) slightly better than league average. The overall projection is for a team broadly similar to this year's 41-41 Washington Wizards.

Doomsday scenario: Clippers without Paul and Griffin
Just last year, the Clippers split two road games without Paul in the playoffs against the Houston Rockets when he was sidelined by a hamstring injury. In Paul's absence, Blake Griffin took on a leading role, combining for 60 points, 29 rebounds and 17 assists in those two games.

That's why it was doubly painful for the Clippers when Griffin was forced from Game 4 with a sore quadriceps related to the strain that kept him out for a month earlier this season and never fully healed. After the game, Rivers said it's "50-50" whether Griffin will be able to play in Game 5.

The prospect of playing without both stars is daunting for the Clippers, who have done so just six times in the five seasons Griffin and Paul have played together -- mostly in situations where the team was resting, including three games late this season.

RPM's projections for a Clippers team without both Griffin and Paul are pessimistic. They suggest L.A.'s offensive rating would be 2.4 points worse per 100 possessions than league average, better than just four teams during the regular season. And because the Clippers would likely replace Griffin with smaller lineups that struggle on the glass, their defensive projection gets worse too.

Overall, RPM estimates the Clippers without both stars would be about a 34-win team over a full season. And that doesn't even take into account that starting shooting guard J.J. Redick has been struggling with a heel contusion in this series, shooting 30.4 percent from 3-point range.

Blazers only slight favorites if Griffin plays
The one saving grace for the Clippers is that they'll have home-court advantage for the best-of-three series this now becomes, including a potential Game 7 at the Staples Center. Even though RPM's projection for Portland's playoff rotation (plus-2.6 net rating) is far better than for the Clippers without Paul, the Clippers are still slight favorites in games played in L.A.

In the event Griffin can play normally the last three games of the series, the RPM estimates make the Blazers a slight favorites by a 54-46 edge. But if Griffin doesn't play at all, the Clippers are in huge trouble. In that scenario, Portland would be favored even in L.A. and is projected the win the series more than 60 percent of the time.

After Curry's MRI earlier Monday, the Clippers looked like big winners because of the potential to face a weakened Warriors team in the second round. Instead, because of their own injuries, the Clippers now may not even get that opportunity.
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KingAlbertoJrSpeed said:
I think we were on pace to beat Clippers even without the injuries. We got better each game.
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We should all be confident at this point, but this is a Clipper team which won 53 games during the regular season. Much of which was without their star PF.

We need to respect our opponent and come out in LA doing what we did in PDX to get these wins. Come out with intensity on the defensive end, and movement on the offensive end. Keep moving the ball until it finds the open shooter, and trust that person to keep the defense honest. Keep moving off ball on the pick and roll, if they double Lillard at the top of the key it is going to leave open cuts into the paint.
 
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The Clippers are doomed.

DOOOOOOMMMED.

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMED.
 
It's already been decided. Without the best PG in the league, the Clippers are just a bunch of prima donnas. It's like herding cats.
 
I'm concerned that some of the Blazers still don't realize how important every possession is in the playoffs. You cannot take crazy off-balance shots with plenty of time left on the clock. You cannot celebrate after you make a great shot, running down the court smiling at someone on the bench while making special hand gesticulations. (Do I sound like a grouchy old man or a guy who would hate to fail to take advantage of the opportunity presented to us by the Paul injury?)
 
jlprk said:
The Clippers are doomed.

DOOOOOOMMMED.

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMED.
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Whatever the Blazers do, they need to come out with the mentality that they have to win and play balls to the wall. The Clippers could still win this game and the series.
 
I'd still stay guarded. Our team is bipolar at times.

Would be more comfortable if Dame was playing better. At least his runs are usually sustainable. But his decision making has been OK, and his shot selection has been suspect (at best). With such heavy reliance on Aminu and Crabbe, et al to perform well, I still have to be cautious about making us favorites in anything. I don't think those guys are still at a place where we can rely on them to get 15 a night.
 
yuyuza1 said:
I'd still stay guarded. Our team is bipolar at times.

Would be more comfortable if Dame was playing better. At least his runs are usually sustainable. But his decision making has been OK, and his shot selection has been suspect (at best). With such heavy reliance on Aminu and Crabbe, et al to perform well, I still have to be cautious about making us favorites in anything. I don't think those guys are still at a place where we can rely on them to get 15 a night.
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Agreed. Any win is a great win in the Playoffs, but I thought we kinda played like hot garbage last night. We won because our mediocre players (Aminu/Crabbe) actually made their shots, and their good, but streaky players (Crawford/JJ) missed their shots. Even after CP3 went down we couldn't seem to step on their throats until late in the 4th were a couple shots finally expanded the lead to double-digits and gave us the breathing room to win comfortably.
 
jlprk said:
It's already been decided. Without the best PG in the league, the Clippers are just a bunch of prima donnas. It's like herding cats.
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You forget, they have a weapon called the Officials.
 
Game 5 is vital, even if Blake plays having just one day off isn't enough rest for his quad he will be slowed by it. The team will also still be deflated by the loss of CP3. The Clippers are like the Rockets to me in that they lack the perseverance to battle through because they are always too focused on working the refs instead of just playing the game. CP3 is the one guy that had that little bit of mental focus to keep that team glued together. If we let them win game 5 though that will mean we have to win a game 7 there when they would have momentum again.
 
Schilly said:
Game 5 is vital, even if Blake plays having just one day off isn't enough rest for his quad he will be slowed by it. The team will also still be deflated by the loss of CP3. The Clippers are like the Rockets to me in that they lack the perseverance to battle through because they are always too focused on working the refs instead of just playing the game. CP3 is the one guy that had that little bit of mental focus to keep that team glued together. If we let them win game 5 though that will mean we have to win a game 7 there when they would have momentum again.
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On the other hand, sometimes the supporting crew catches fire when their star goes down. And we've seen the Blazers crap their pants in situations like this too. I just think the Paul injure raised our chances to win game 6 from like 10% to 50%. Still not comfortable though.
 
Sinobas said:
On the other hand, sometimes the supporting crew catches fire when their star goes down. And we've seen the Blazers crap their pants in situations like this too. I just think the Paul injure raised our chances to win game 6 from like 10% to 50%. Still not comfortable though.
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I assume you meant Game 5? I think the Blazers' chances in Game 6 are considerably better than 50%.
 
Sinobas said:
On the other hand, sometimes the supporting crew catches fire when their star goes down. And we've seen the Blazers crap their pants in situations like this too. I just think the Paul injure raised our chances to win game 6 from like 10% to 50%. Still not comfortable though.
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Under most circumstances I would agree with you, but the way this Clippers team is built I have a hard time seeing it. The only way I could see it is if Paul Pierce somehow really rally's everyone to gether, but I don't see that kind of makeup in the guys on this Clippers team.
 
Favorites or underdogs, Chris Paul or no Chris Paul, we still need to play the games and this is still the youngest, least experienced team in the playoffs. For a team this young, even without the injuries to their opponents, there is usually an emotional let down after winning two games to even the series. The reasons they won at home had nothing to do with Chris Paul's injury. It was due to playing with a lot more energy and confidence in front of a very loud, very supportive home crowd, on a court and in an environment where they are most comfortable.

Throw in the injury to Paul and I think this team needs to be VERY careful of a huge let down in Game 5. Doc Rivers (aka Coach Obvious) was right: we won 2 at home and they won 2 at home. That's the way a 4-5 matchup should play out. Nothing surprising there. The Clippers STILL have HCA and we NEED to win on their floor to take the series. Game 5 on Wednesday is critical. There is still a lot of talent and a lot of experience on that team. If we play like we did in Games 1 and 2, we will lose, even if they don't have Chris Paul.

We are 0-4 in games in LA this season, with an average margin of defeat of 14.5 points. During Damian Lillard's 4-year NBA career, the Blazers are 1-8 in games played against the Clippers in LA. 5 of those 8 losses have been by 13, or more, points. The Blazers have lost 9 straight playoff games in Los Angeles going back to Game 7 of the 2000 Conference Finals against the Lakers. The last time the Blazers won a playoff game in Los Angeles, all five current starters were in elementary school and Noah Vonleh was in preschool. Hell, Chris Kaman was still in high school. Yeah, it's been that long. Other than the last two, that doesn't have anything to do with the current roster, but it's been a LONG time. It's not an easy place to win, especially in the post season.

So, they cannot let up. Not because they have clawed back and made it a series. Not because Chris Paul is out. Not for any reason at all. They need to play with the same intensity, the same focus, the same effort, the same confidence and most of all, they same sense of urgency as they did in Games 3 and 4. Let Game 5 slip away and we are faced with needing to win Game 7 on the road to advance. That's never an easy task, not even for a veteran team. For a team this young, it's daunting. They NEED to take Game 5 in LA on Wednesday and set up the possibility of winning the series at home in Game 6 on Friday.

BNM
 
Our best shot to advance is to end this in 6. [duh]
 
TBpup said:
The Blazers should be favored....just like the Clippers would be overwhelming favorites if Lillard was out. Portland has to go take care of business.
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A better fan would say without Lillard Portland would still be the favorite.
 
So who plays PG for the Clippers now? Prigioni is the only other listed PG on their roster, that leaves....

Reddick?
Crawford?
Rivers?
Wilcox?
Prigioni?
 
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