Kevin Pelton's Player Similarity Test - From BlazersEdge

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B-Roy

B-Roy

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Some of you may have seen this already, but for those who haven't...

You guys should know KP2 by now, but if not, Kevin Pelton is one of the kinky young minds behind Basketball Prospectus. I recently realized he also runs the best-named WNBA blog in the history of ever.
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KP2 used to work for the Sonics and we share an affinity for Kevin Durant. Recently, he casually mentioned in a facebook message that KD's "similarity" list includes Kobe Bryant near the very top. KEVIN DURANT IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT KOBE... Well, no, not exactly. After I took a shower to cool down, I asked him to explain "similarity" to me.

Similarity, officially, is a comparative rating (on a 1 to 100 scale) between any two players from NBA history (1979-1980 on -- since the advent of the 3 point line -- and with a minimum of 250 minutes played). For reference, KP2 says, "two identical players would score a similarity of 100. In practice, a score of 98 is virtually identical, 95 is very similar and anything below 90 is getting pretty sketchy."
So similarity ratings aren't going to guarantee or even predict a player's career path, but you can take any player and create a list of other players who had the most similar stats at this point in their respective careers. So today's Durant (age 20) is being compared to Kobe at age 20, not the current Kobe. Make sense? You can then run similarity scores for any one player against EVERY player in NBA history and then rank them from most similar to least similar. Sweet!

Similarity is a tantalizing piece to add to our own qualitative basketball observations, especially for younger players. For Blazers fans, it can add a new dimension to our understanding of our ridiculously young roster... sure, Jerryd Bayless looks a lot like Monta Ellis when he came into the league, but what do the numbers say? How similar, exactly, are the two players? Is there anyone more similar to JB than Monta? That's the type of question that similarity aims to answer.
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Essentially, he's taking Blazer players, and using stats to find comparable players who have already made their mark in the league. I think it's really interesting and will make for some good discussion. Oh, and I think MARIS will cream his pants.

Blazers Reserves:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/2/3/748430/kevin-pelton-s-stat-bomb-f

Blazer Starters:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/2/4/749102/kevin-pelton-s-stat-bomb-s
 
That was great. Thanks!

Love the comparison match of Rudy and Reggie. That's about where my expectations are for Rudy I think.
 
I got to thinking after reading that cool article why I like Rudy so much. On the surface, his style of game is eerily similar to Reggie Miller's. I had never really made the connection. Even though we've seen him struggle throughout the season with his 3-point accuracy, he's still hitting 40% of them. Given that the NBA 3-pt line is what, about 3-feet further out, he's adjusted pretty well.

Another similarity is the way he plays off the ball, darting around screens/opponents/teammates to get free.

Reggie was crafty, but not in the way that Rudy is. Rudy uses his athleticism and quickness to get so many tips and rebounds. It won't show in the box scores, but he keeps so many possessions alive for us it seems.

His playmaking abilities are very good. I wish that Nate could utilize those skills more. I suppose we just have too many other cooks in the kitchen to really see what he can do right now.

He's got to work on when to take his shots and getting more elevation on those 3-pointers. His release point isn't very high, so he's got to either get used to defenders getting a lot closer to his shot or he's got to use those legs and get some height. It's not the Euro League where he can juke defenders free to get his shot. The longer he toys with NBA defenders, the longer they'll have to adjust and clamp down on him.

Anyway, I thought the article was pretty good. It shows that at the same stages, he and Reggie are/were nearly identical players.

Any of you see a way that Rudy could have the same type of success as Reggie if he stays here in Portland?
 
Ok. So evidently I'm chatting with myself. That's cool. I like me.

Anyway, the comparison with Travis Outlaw and Michael Finley is interesting and fits well. That would mean our back up power forward is playing like 2-inch shorter small forward. Not sure that's a good thing future-wise.
 
Roy and Kobe..... gotta like that :)
 
Crimson the Cat said:
Ok. So evidently I'm chatting with myself. That's cool. I like me.

Anyway, the comparison with Travis Outlaw and Michael Finley is interesting and fits well. That would mean our back up power forward is playing like 2-inch shorter small forward. Not sure that's a good thing future-wise.
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It's a comparison of the players at the same age. Outlaw still has some room to grow.

I think the most telling comparison are the ones with Roy. Kobe, Drexler, Dantly? Those are some elite comparisons.
 
Sergio is Gary Payton? Sure.... in bizzaro world.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Sergio is Gary Payton? Sure.... in bizzaro world.
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Well, before Payton could shoot the ball? Maybe. Obviously, GP was always worlds ahead of Sergio on defense, but I doubt similarity score incorporates defense in any meaningful way.
 
B-Roy said:
Similar, stat wise, at the same age. Then Payton blew up. I don't see the same thing w/ Serg.
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Payton developed a shot. If Sergio did too, he'd be much more effective. But developing a shot from terrible to dangerous is a pretty rare thing.
 
Minstrel said:
Payton developed a shot. If Sergio did too, he'd be much more effective. But developing a shot from terrible to dangerous is a pretty rare thing.
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Also...Payton plays...you know....D.
 
B-Roy said:
Also...Payton plays...you know....D.
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Sure, but I don't think defense is factored into similarity. I was only talking about statistical production.
 
Minstrel said:
Sure, but I don't think defense is factored into similarity. I was only talking about statistical production.
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True.

I think Jason Terry is somewhat of a surprise on Sergio's list given that Terry is much more of an offensive minded player.
 
Minstrel said:
Payton developed a shot. If Sergio did too, he'd be much more effective. But developing a shot from terrible to dangerous is a pretty rare thing.
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But the defense was such a big part of who GP was. Well..... Defense and trash talking. Payton was more street, and Sergio is more country club.
 
If Payton is the glove . . does that make Batum the jacket?

I was thinking long sleeve shirt, but that just doesn't roll off the tounge. The boot?
 
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