I have a serious question. For those of you that think we are close, why? And I really mean that in a very non snippy way. I see a team that hasn't been close in the playoffs, has their best player a shell of his former self, and a frnachise changing center that has played 82 games in 4 seasons, was injured in college as well. A front office that can't get out of it's own way and a destination mostly overlooked by major FA's.
I think saying the Blazers are "close" is a bit off as far as I'm concerned. I think if things break their way on a couple of things, then they could be in the rather unexpected position the Mavs find themselves this year. I think that the majority of the issues you raise can easily be inverted to show a more positive take:
1. The team hasn't made it out of the 1st round for three years, but that's not truly a reflection of the talent level of the team, IMO, as much as it is
reflective of injury issues. Put a healthy Oden or Roy on the court this year and I really believe the Blazers could have taken the Mavs and last year could have taken the Suns.
2. Roy may be be a "shell of his former self" (man, is that an overused cliche around here), but Aldridge showed signs of developing a game this year that exceeded anything that was expected of him based upon his previous seasons in the NBA. Given the complaints about Roy's isos, isn't that a net improvement in the structure of the team? Add in what Wallace can bring once the team is adapted to his talents, and I think you can argue pretty convincingly that the pluses outweigh Roy's minus.
3. Oden has had a horrible set of injuries in his first 4 seasons, but the plus for me is that none of them are repetitive issues that would signal a career-threatening situation like Roy's lack of meniscus. I'd be surprised if Oden achieves what we thought he would when he was drafted, but I think he can still have a significant career. He certainly adds physical size and abilities that not many players in the NBA can bring to his position.
4. The Cho firing has been spun here and in most of the media as a clear sign of the heavy hand of a meddlesome Paul Allen. While that could certainly be the case, it could equally well be that Cho simply didn't measure up to what the GM spot needed. If that's the situation, then getting the right man for the job hired this summer will be a major enhancement to the team's chances going forward.
5. I think the major FA not coming to Portland argument is overblown. Players at the end of their careers will go where they think they have a chance to win. If the Blazers can establish that they can be contenders, then FAs will sign here. If not, then the Blazers still have assets necessary to make trades if they get a GM who knows how to work the system.
6. Like I said, I don't necessarily think the Blazers are "close" right now, but looking around the West, where is the dominant team that is going to keep the Blazers from contending to make the finals. The Lakers and Spurs aren't what they used to be and, in the case of the Lakers, have salary issues that are going to make it really difficult to get new talent. The Mavs are old and don't have many seasons left in them. The Thunder are considered the heirs apparent, but showed some weaknesses in the playoffs that say that they're no sure thing. The Grizzlies, and potentially the Clippers, could make some noise, but I don't see them as overwhelming obstacles. The path looks more open than it has in years and the Blazers look to me to have a chance to be in the picture to fill the void as long as a few breaks go their way.
