LA on Rome......

[BrianFromWA]

This can't be true.

This summer, BrianFromWA and Natebishop were GUARANTEEING and 100% certain he is going to leave. Anybody who said we should wait because we didn't actually know the real story was living in denial, and acting childish.

You're right. I was 100% certain that he had said what he said. Now that we know that he said it out of frustration, and that he's willing to sign an extension, no problem.

 

[blazerboy30]

You're right. I was 100% certain that he had said what he said. Now that we know that he said it out of frustration, and that he's willing to sign an extension, no problem.

Nice backpedaling.

You were absolutely certain LMA is leaving Portland and we should trade him since his value could only decrease from that point in the summer.

It was ridiculous.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I was absolutely certain because I'd heard what he said. And if I'd heard it, it was only a matter of time until guys like Quick heard it (which happened later, and was denied categorically by Olshey), in which case the trade value could only decrease Melo-style.

Now that it's come out that LMA did say what he said, and is now saying it was out of frustration. But at the time I think you were one of the ones who said there was no way that LMA had asked for a trade. Do you still think that it's as ridiculous as you did then, now that LMA confirmed that he said it?

 

[blazerboy30]

I was absolutely certain because I'd heard what he said. And if I'd heard it, it was only a matter of time until guys like Quick heard it (which happened later, and was denied categorically by Olshey), in which case the trade value could only decrease Melo-style.

Now that it's come out that LMA did say what he said, and is now saying it was out of frustration. But at the time I think you were one of the ones who said there was no way that LMA had asked for a trade. Do you still think that it's as ridiculous as you did then, now that LMA confirmed that he said it?

You're having trouble distinguishing between what somebody said and what is certain to happen. It's funny to me that you would assume those are the same, and then start making guarantees and claiming he needed to be traded immediately because his value could only go down.

As for what I wrote... I continually claimed to not know what was going to happen or have any knowledge as to what LMA would do. I did say that making a trade immediately out of fear of something that MIGHT happen was ridiculous.

 

[BrianFromWA]

You're having trouble distinguishing between what somebody said and what is certain to happen. It's funny to me that you would assume those are the same, and then start making guarantees and claiming he needed to be traded immediately because his value could only go down.

LMA saying that he wasn't re-signing here and wanted a trade immediately is what was said (and denied) then. So if you have knowledge that your star has told you that he wasn't resigning and wanted a trade, would you advocate to not do anything because he might change his mind after demanding the trade? I said at the time that if you didn't think LMA wanted to leave, that I'd offer him a max extension and see what he did with it. At the time, he wouldn't have signed it (and I think the quotes bear that out as being the correct line of thinking, in hindsight). I fully admit that I didn't think Olshey would be able to get Lopez and Robinson for basically free, and that he could get two more pieces like Mo and Wright for what was left over from our cap space. If you look at the posts, I wrote that once we got Robinson for free (right after the draft) it was not worth trading LMA and trying to fill out a roster that would appease him and get him to stay.

As for what I wrote... I continually claimed to not know what was going to happen or have any knowledge as to what LMA would do. I did say that making a trade immediately out of fear of something that MIGHT happen was ridiculous.

But you ridiculed those who did know what LMA said he would do, because you hadn't heard it from the media. And then when the media stated it, you pointed to Olshey's and LMA's denials as some kind of proof that everyone was making stuff up. And now, you're saying that I'm backpedaling.

 

[Blazinaway]

Mags, your weird, long, off centered sig picture is very annoying!

how bout gettin rid of that stupid ass photo? it's lame

 

[THE HCP]

The one BF and I had frequented before this. It shall not be named. lol.

Honestly, where did you guys come from? I only ask because this is the only forum I visit.

 

[maxiep]

Mags, your weird, long, off centered sig picture is very annoying!

You find a photo of five Blazers dunking on our opponents "annoying"? I freaking love it!

 

[maxiep]

This can't be true.

This summer, BrianFromWA and Natebishop were GUARANTEEING and 100% certain he is going to leave. Anybody who said we should wait because we didn't actually know the real story was living in denial, and acting childish.

I'll admit that I assumed he was gone. I'm glad he's giving us a second look.

 

[maxiep]

how bout gettin rid of that stupid ass photo? it's lame

Are you kidding me? HCP's face on Jackie Moon's naked body? That's hot!

 

[blazerboy30]

LMA saying that he wasn't re-signing here and wanted a trade immediately is what was said (and denied) then. So if you have knowledge that your star has told you that he wasn't resigning and wanted a trade, would you advocate to not do anything because he might change his mind after demanding the trade? I said at the time that if you didn't think LMA wanted to leave, that I'd offer him a max extension and see what he did with it. At the time, he wouldn't have signed it (and I think the quotes bear that out as being the correct line of thinking, in hindsight). I fully admit that I didn't think Olshey would be able to get Lopez and Robinson for basically free, and that he could get two more pieces like Mo and Wright for what was left over from our cap space. If you look at the posts, I wrote that once we got Robinson for free (right after the draft) it was not worth trading LMA and trying to fill out a roster that would appease him and get him to stay.


But you ridiculed those who did know what LMA said he would do, because you hadn't heard it from the media. And then when the media stated it, you pointed to Olshey's and LMA's denials as some kind of proof that everyone was making stuff up. And now, you're saying that I'm backpedaling.

Dude just stop. You were wrong. Move on.

Show me where I pointed to LMA's denials as proof of anything.

I said you were being ridiculous at the time by believing what was said and proposing to act out of fear instead of treating it as a real business with negotiations when the time is right and letting the money and signatures talk.

 

[blazerboy30]

I'll admit that I assumed he was gone. I'm glad he's giving us a second look.

I don't remember you calling for irrational trades and acting out of fear.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

You're right. I was 100% certain that he had said what he said. Now that we know that he said it out of frustration, and that he's willing to sign an extension, no problem.

Brian, I love your takes and the knowledge you bring to the board. But you were not only 100% sure he said it, but that he would do it. Many here figured he said something about it or felt that way but also figured it was probably out of frustration and if the team turns around and starts winning he will change his tune. So many were factoring in the frustration and you seemed dead set on the idea he was gone no matter what.

Is that fair representation of this summer?

Edit: BTW I think the current statements are being said in the opposite of frustration (winning euphoria) . . . if I'm betting man, Aldridge doesn't resign if Blazers don't make it past first round.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Yes, once the rumor came out from Bucher on 6/23 saying LMA would be gone by draft day, and I started asking some questions, I was 100% sure that he was gone in 2 years. He'd said so. I didn't know that he'd demanded the trade.

Your third sentence is revisionist history, though. Most (including El Pres in multiple posts in the thread) were saying "so what, let him walk if he wanted to walk and we'll get cap space." RR7 in Post 77 said that instead of trading LMA after his comments, that we should trade Wes/Leonard/Claver and Batum instead for a "disgruntled All-Star" that Mags was talking about. BoBo said there was "no substance".

Wow. I'll tell you what is flawed thinking:
Building an entire argument and trading strategy based on an assumption that LMA will leave in two years, without any real insight into what he will actually do. Unless you have some insider, legit knowledge, this is the worst foundation and trade strategy on this thread.

And to be clear, I'm not against or for trading LMA. It would depend on the proposed trade. But using the assumption that he's leaving in 2 years pushes in the direction of making an unfavorably lopsided trade out of fear.

This is where your argument is flawed. Nobody else is making an assumption either way with regard to knowing he's leaving or staying. You're the one making an assumption and it would lead to making a bad trade out of fear of a faulty assumption.
Unless, of course, you have insider knowledge, which hopefully our GM does.

It turns out he did, and maybe that's why you heard Ford rumoring that POR was in the running for the #1 pick plus...?

So a poster on this board being "100% sure" of an UFA All-star leaving Portland is absurd and baseless.

It wasn't baseless, and it wasn't an assumption, LMA said it. It's not out of fear, if LMA was the one who said it to the GM. So the "absurd" side doesn't fit, either.
There was knowledge (confirmed by LMA, after a summer of people like Olshey lying about it and posters ridiculing it).

And no, it doesn't "sound familiar" except to you. He's apparently 3/4ths of the way out the door. When you include that in every scenario, then it sure makes it easier to see. For you. Where's he going to walk to?

He stated that he wasn't going to sign, and also had issued a trade demand that I didn't know about. He wasn't 3/4th out the door, he told Olshey he was gone. Hence:

I think he's 100% out the door, not 3/4. I get that you don't, and that's fine. If I'm wrong, we have a bunch of assets instead of a UFA All-Star. If you're wrong, we are 100% screwed.

I'm glad he's recently changed his mind and would be happy to offer him the extension he didn't sign/wasn't offered this summer.
e_blazer was reasonable about it:

The thing about conversations like this is that we're all on the outside guessing about what people's thinking about the future may be. Do you really think that LMA and NO haven't had some pretty extensive conversations about this and that is factored in when making decisions about the draft and prospective trades?

But we weren't. We had national writers who'd been fed info, and we had people who knew of Exit Interviews that LMA has since confirmed he wasn't open to re-signing and wanted a trade.

And to be fair, RR7 clarified:

I'd like my odds better at getting to the deadline and hoping that a struggling team would want to add him for their pick(ala Brooklyn for Deron) to increase the odds of it being a decent pick in a draft where there might actually be a superstar, over getting a pick where a guy would have to exceed all reasonable expectations to be that true superstar to get us to a title.

Personally, I disagree, but it's a reasonable, debatable position. And it acknowledges the possibility the LMA said what he said. Others like Rhal and Draco took this tack, in thinking there would be a bigger market later in the year.

It (lecturing me all you want on logic vs. fear, if you still feel so led.) is exactly what you're doing.
- You're making an assumption without any inside information
- You're convincing yourself that your assumption is "100% correct"
- You're valuing $16M in cap space as "absolutely nothing", but still think that we can trade him to a team that has $16M of that worthless cap space.
- You're assuming that the number of available trading partners will drop in the next 6 months or year
- You want to trade every player if "there is any possible chance they will leave in 2 years"

I think we've shown that I was right on Bullet 1 and 2, and that 3 and 4 are interesting debates.

Then BlazerBoy30's thoughts of the consequences if LMA did what he said he would:

An all-star didn't walk away for absolutely nothing. He would have walked away leaving us with a good size of cap space. That cap space obviously has value, and quite a bit of value. If we were over the cap and LMA walking didn't give us a bunch of cap space, then you'd be right. I'm not sure, at this point, how I'd compare the value of 2 lotto picks to cap space. It depends on the circumstances.

it goes on, but this is already a tl;dr post. To answer your question, ToB, after asking questions and hearing that he'd said he wouldn't re-sign, I believed it. 100%. If he signs an extension for the next 4 years, that's great. I still submit that if he didn't want to re-sign (much less demand a trade, which I hadn't heard) then this past draft/summer was the best time to trade him, before a Melo/Deron/Dwight situation developed.

I have no problem saying that if he rescinded his trade demand and now will sign an extension, it would be foolish to trade him. But I stand by every word I wrote this summer--that since he said he wouldn't re-sign here, that we should trade him at the draft and that Thompson/#1/#19/future 1st? would be better than receiving 16M of potential cap space when he walked.

 

[THE HCP]

Are you kidding me? HCP's face on Jackie Moon's naked body? That's hot!

Thank you Max!

 

[Draco]

BrianFromWA needs to be better than David Kahn but sadly he can't admit when he was flat out wrong.

A number of us thought trading Aldridge, or any player, for less than fair value because he might leave in two years was extremely stupid. All-star players who really want out of a city make their demands public because it helps get a deal done sooner; it lowers their value which helps their new team retain more talent which give them a better shot of winning. The entire summer Aldridge refuted that he wanted a trade, he said he didn't want to go through a rebuild.

Even if Aldridge did say he wanted a trade, it would've been a stupid strategy to hastily make a panic deal for less than full value. If you have followed the NBA for a while and have half a brain you realize there are surprise teams and players that greatly outperform expectations every year. Players like Manu Ginobili become all-stars from the second round. Guys like Pau Gasol become available in trade to the Lakers a few months after Kobe publicly demands a trade. Second round picks like Marc Gasol become the defensive player of the year. Tyson Chandler is available for expiring contracts then leads a defense to a title. How hard was it for the Pistons to get Ben Wallace, or any of their title team starters?

Teams can greatly exceed their current expectations in a few years without the #1 pick or the top free agent. It was extremely stupid to think supplementary pieces couldn't be found to pair with what we all agreed were two possible all-star level players in Aldridge and Lillard.

 

[Draco]

that since he said he wouldn't re-sign here, that we should trade him at the draft and that Thompson/#1/#19/future 1st? would be better than receiving 16M of potential cap space when he walked.

Thanks gosh management doesn't follow your stupid advice.

 

[blazerboy30]

Yes, once the rumor came out from Bucher on 6/23 saying LMA would be gone by draft day, and I started asking some questions, I was 100% sure that he was gone in 2 years. He'd said so. I didn't know that he'd demanded the trade.

Your third sentence is revisionist history, though. Most (including El Pres in multiple posts in the thread) were saying "so what, let him walk if he wanted to walk and we'll get cap space." RR7 in Post 77 said that instead of trading LMA after his comments, that we should trade Wes/Leonard/Claver and Batum instead for a "disgruntled All-Star" that Mags was talking about. BoBo said there was "no substance".



It turns out he did, and maybe that's why you heard Ford rumoring that POR was in the running for the #1 pick plus...?
It wasn't baseless, and it wasn't an assumption, LMA said it. It's not out of fear, if LMA was the one who said it to the GM. So the "absurd" side doesn't fit, either.
There was knowledge (confirmed by LMA, after a summer of people like Olshey lying about it and posters ridiculing it).

He stated that he wasn't going to sign, and also had issued a trade demand that I didn't know about. He wasn't 3/4th out the door, he told Olshey he was gone. Hence:

I'm glad he's recently changed his mind and would be happy to offer him the extension he didn't sign/wasn't offered this summer.
e_blazer was reasonable about it:
But we weren't. We had national writers who'd been fed info, and we had people who knew of Exit Interviews that LMA has since confirmed he wasn't open to re-signing and wanted a trade.

And to be fair, RR7 clarified:
Personally, I disagree, but it's a reasonable, debatable position. And it acknowledges the possibility the LMA said what he said. Others like Rhal and Draco took this tack, in thinking there would be a bigger market later in the year.

I think we've shown that I was right on Bullet 1 and 2, and that 3 and 4 are interesting debates.

Then BlazerBoy30's thoughts of the consequences if LMA did what he said he would:


it goes on, but this is already a tl;dr post. To answer your question, ToB, after asking questions and hearing that he'd said he wouldn't re-sign, I believed it. 100%. If he signs an extension for the next 4 years, that's great. I still submit that if he didn't want to re-sign (much less demand a trade, which I hadn't heard) then this past draft/summer was the best time to trade him, before a Melo/Deron/Dwight situation developed.

I have no problem saying that if he rescinded his trade demand and now will sign an extension, it would be foolish to trade him. But I stand by every word I wrote this summer--that since he said he wouldn't re-sign here, that we should trade him at the draft and that Thompson/#1/#19/future 1st? would be better than receiving 16M of potential cap space when he walked.

Wow, just wow.

You still don't get it.

I don't care what LMA said, or what you thought he said, or what you knew he said.

If that was said, he said it without a contract to sign in front of him. Translation: it means nothing.

I've negotiated many times with people saying something to be true, but when it comes to signing and actually acting with money involved, what was said is irrelevant.

You keep trying to prove that he said certain things, which I'm not arguing one way or another, because I don't care. I care about the actions.

You're building a strawman.

Maybe you were right about what he said, but you're wrong, very wrong, about the actions we should take. Guess which is more important.

 

[Reep]

Wow, just wow.

You still don't get it.

Can you guys take it to the bedroom?

The truth is that right now it is all sunshine and unicorns, but nobody knows the future. This team looks to be working very well, but we all know anything can happen and this too could implode. Nobody can say for sure what is going to happen--and what is the point of arguing about it? Nobody [except Mags] foresaw the Blazers starting off like this, which is why LMA feels the way he does now. Drop it and just enjoy the now.

 

[Draco]

Can you guys take it to the bedroom?

The truth is that right now it is all sunshine and unicorns, but nobody knows the future. This team looks to be working very well, but we all know anything can happen and this too could implode. Nobody can say for sure what is going to happen--and what is the point of arguing about it? Nobody [except Mags] foresaw the Blazers starting off like this, which is why LMA feels the way he does now. Drop it and just enjoy the now.

There were others of us telling Brian how stupid his calls for a trade were during the offseason. You are missing the point; that the Blazers are winning now or if they had started the season losing is irrelevant. Trading Aldridge for less than fair value at any point was a bad move.

Mags was far from the only poster that saw upside with this roster. I said from the beginning I thought we’d be a 6th seed but could just as easily get a few bounces our way and end up with the 3rd seed or just miss the playoffs as the 9th.

 

[Natebishop3]

Lots of chest thumping and hand wringing in this thread.

1) He isn't signed.

2) The season is still young.

I'm glad that he says he would sign and extension, but I find it humorous that this was said,

I've negotiated many times with people saying something to be true, but when it comes to signing and actually acting with money involved, what was said is irrelevant.

when he's acting as though this is a done deal.

He hasn't signed. This is all talk at this point. A lot can happen in the next six months. We could go on another 13 game losing streak. We could go on to win the championship, but you don't know what will happen anymore than we do. Nobody expected the team to be this good at this juncture. I figured we were good enough to be a top 4 or 5 seed. I still think we might end up around 4th in the west, but most of the talk about trading Aldridge was BEFORE we brought in Mo, Wright, Lopez, and Robinson. I underestimated Olshey. I didn't think he could completely retool our bench like that.

The point is; there is still a long way to go, he can't sign an extension until after the season, and a lot can happen in six months. I wouldn't count your chickens before they're hatched.

 

[magnifier661]

I'm just glad Olshey didn't panic like most if us in here and do something really stupid. We praise how this team is much different because we don't buckle under pressure, I think Olshey deserves praise as well.

Even if the rumors weren't true, he showed that he wants to make his all star happy. If it was, then he did a fine job changing his mind. Regardless, we got a pimp GM that I trust steering our ship!

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm just glad Olshey didn't panic like most if us in here and do something really stupid. We praise how this team is much different because we don't buckle under pressure, I think Olshey deserves praise as well.

Even if the rumors weren't true, he showed that he wants to make his all star happy. If it was, then he did a fine job changing his mind. Regardless, we got a pimp GM that I trust steering our ship!

Paul needs to lock Neil up for a long time. I fear he's going to jump ship for a bigger city when his contract is up.

 

[BBert]

With respect to mags, I don't think he is a seer who 'foresaw' anything. He chooses to take the road less traveled of extreme optimism and positive thought. And why not? Just happens that the Blazers are exceeding everyone's expectations with their win-loss record so far. So, he was 'right'.

Some people act like every game is a loss, until it's a win. Some treat every game as a win until it's a loss. Most of us are in the middle wringing our hands and worrying.

Here's to a 78-4 season (hey, we might lose another game, you never know), leading into an epic playoffs.

 

[magnifier661]

With respect to mags, I don't think he is a seer who 'foresaw' anything. He chooses to take the road less traveled of extreme optimism. And why not? Just happens that the Blazers are exceeding everyone's expectations with their win-loss record so far. So, he was 'right'.

Some people act like every game is a loss, until it's a win. Some treat every game as a win until it's a loss. Most of us are in the middle wringing our hands and worrying.

Here's to a 78-4 season (hey, we might lose another game, you never know), leading into an epic playoffs.

I love the way you think!

 

[Reep]

Mags was far from the only poster that saw upside with this roster. I said from the beginning I thought we’d be a 6th seed but could just as easily get a few bounces our way and end up with the 3rd seed or just miss the playoffs as the 9th.

True, but Mags is the only one who would have gone out on a limb and said 15-3 (although probably not seriously). I think the rest of us were hoping for 3-6 seed at best.

 

[Natebishop3]

With respect to mags, I don't think he is a seer who 'foresaw' anything. He chooses to take the road less traveled of extreme optimism and positive thought. And why not? Just happens that the Blazers are exceeding everyone's expectations with their win-loss record so far. So, he was 'right'.

Some people act like every game is a loss, until it's a win. Some treat every game as a win until it's a loss. Most of us are in the middle wringing our hands and worrying.

Here's to a 78-4 season (hey, we might lose another game, you never know), leading into an epic playoffs.

Man, I haven't had that "every game is a win" attitude since the 1999-2000 season. That was probably the best team we've ever had in terms of overall talent. I genuinely thought we would blow every team out of the water. I would love to see old tapes of that team.

 

[blazerboy30]

Lots of chest thumping and hand wringing in this thread.

1) He isn't signed.

2) The season is still young.

I'm glad that he says he would sign and extension, but I find it humorous that this was said, when he's acting as though this is a done deal.

He hasn't signed. This is all talk at this point. A lot can happen in the next six months. We could go on another 13 game losing streak. We could go on to win the championship, but you don't know what will happen anymore than we do. Nobody expected the team to be this good at this juncture. I figured we were good enough to be a top 4 or 5 seed. I still think we might end up around 4th in the west, but most of the talk about trading Aldridge was BEFORE we brought in Mo, Wright, Lopez, and Robinson. I underestimated Olshey. I didn't think he could completely retool our bench like that.

The point is; there is still a long way to go, he can't sign an extension until after the season, and a lot can happen in six months. I wouldn't count your chickens before they're hatched.

HAHAHA!

Wow.

I've been saying this entire time that we have no idea what will happen. I've said many times I don't know what will happen, so we shouldn't advocate acting out of fear.

You're one of the only two posters that was ABSOLUTELY SURE and guaranteed he was leaving.

And now you're telling me that "there is a long way to go" and "a lot can happen" and "this is all talk at this point". That flip-flopping is incredibly absurd.

 

[Natebishop3]

HAHAHA!

Wow.

I've been saying this entire time that we have no idea what will happen. I've said many times I don't know what will happen, so we shouldn't advocate acting out of fear.

You're one of the only two posters that was ABSOLUTELY SURE and guaranteed he was leaving.

And now you're telling me that "there is a long way to go" and "a lot can happen" and "this is all talk at this point". That flip-flopping is incredibly absurd.

At the time there were reports from Bucher, Quick, and Haynes all pointing to Aldridge wanting out. There were rumors about talks with the Cavs and the Warriors. It sure seemed like he was gone. You're acting like Brian and I pulled that shit out of thin air. There were rumors, so we discussed some possible trade ideas. For some unknown reason that irked the hell out of people like you. I still find it humorous.

If he could sign an extension right now, this proclamation of love would mean something, but there's a long way to go before he can actually renegotiate his contract. I would be ecstatic to see him sign an extension because I love our team, but I'm still skeptical. Players say the right things publicly, but it's what they say behind closed doors that matter. It will be interesting to see if Aldridge puts his money where his mouth is.

 

[magnifier661]

Man, I haven't had that "every game is a win" attitude since the 1999-2000 season. That was probably the best team we've ever had in terms of overall talent. I genuinely thought we would blow every team out of the water. I would love to see old tapes of that team.

They were fun to watch, but I loved the blazer team before that. It seemed every player knew their role. That 2000 team had a lot of alpha dogs in it. Alpha dogs that didn't have the clutch 4th mindset.

This team "will" surprise you. We know for certain who will be doing the most of the scoring in the 4th. We have an identity. We have chemistry