Latest on Rubio

[Rastapopoulos]

Here's the latest on Ricky Rubio:

Lest we forget the amazing performance delivered by Ricky Rubio in the quarterfinals, which unfortunately wasn't enough to avoid the upset by the local Madrid team Estudiantes. Rubio put together some of the most impressive moments of his career thus far in the second half, finishing the game with 16 points, 7 assists and 6 steals.

What was ironic is that he was quite awful in the first quarter, being burned repeatedly by the very experienced Corey L. Brewer (Arkansas), while turning the ball over on some very risky passes. He sat for that reason for most of the second quarter ,only to emerge midway through the third to give his team a huge shot in the arm that got them right back in the game, immediately scoring two consecutive layups going coast to coast by himself.

The biggest improvement we've seen from Rubio this year has to do with his incredible passing skills. Slow to recover from the wrist injury that kept him out of the first 11 games of the ACB season, and still sporting a heavy bandage on that same right hand, Rubio has been forced to become more of a playmaker to provide maximum value for his team. He's averaging a ridiculous 11.5 assists per-40 pace adjusted, tops in the league and by a wide margin. Based off what he showed here at the Copa, it was very easy to see why.

Rubio is one of the best pick and roll players you'll find in basketball today, NBA or not.

Huh, huh? Think Greg might like that?

According to Synergy Sports Technology's quantified report, an astounding 62% of his offensive possessions come in this fashion. His ability to deliver crisp, perfectly timed passes directly into the hands of a cutting teammate for an easy basket is uncanny, as he makes the game so incredibly simple, doing everything but put the ball into the net for them. It's exactly this type of court vision and feel for the game that has produced comparisons to Steve Nash, even if their perimeter shooting and defensive skills couldn't be any more different. He has a similar ability to change speeds with the ball and simultaneously see every inch of the court, not hesitating for an instant to deliver a bullet pass underneath the rim for an easy layup.

What made this particular game more noteworthy than the previous times we saw him was Rubio's willingness to put Joventut on his back and carry them with his scoring. With the shot-clock running down, Rubio put his ball-handling skills on full display, slashing apart the defense with a beautiful crossover and finishing strong around the basket in traffic, sometimes with a nifty floater. Unable to use his right hand for the first few weeks following his wrist injury, Rubio has improved his ability to create with his left, which has made him a more dangerous player. One NBA scout we spoke to after the game astutely pointed out that Rubio could develop into an even better scorer in the NBA than he is here, as the improved spacing and strict rules about hand-checking on the perimeter will greatly favor his style of play.

Rubio's perimeter shooting remains very much a concern, as highlighted by the 0-4 he shot in this particular game. He is shooting 42% from beyond the arc on the season thus far, but that's on a very small sample size (8/19). His mechanics still look poor, and he's especially dreadful shooting the ball off the dribble—which is a big reason why he was forced to pass the ball in the game's decisive possession (resulting in two free throws for Eduardo Hernandez Sonseca, one of which he fatally missed) rather than try to score himself. Rubio has become fairly decent spotting up with his feet set, but NBA scouts will want to see more to be totally convinced.

Watching him in the Olympics, the player he most reminded me of was Rajon Rondo, particularly for his havoc-inducing defense. Guess that analogy extends to shooting skills...

A part of his game we've discussed time after time, but continue to take great delight in, is his uncanny knack for getting in the passing lanes. Needless to say, Rubio leads the ACB in this category at 3 steals per-40. One of the most fun parts of seeing Rubio perform is watching him off the ball defensively. As the opposition moves the ball around the court, you can see Rubio anticipating their next move, closing down angles just as a pass is about to be made, pouncing at just the right moment, getting his long arms on the ball to create the deflection, and taking the ball the other way. At one point he had three consecutive steals in three possessions, all of which finished with a basket for his team—highlighting the way he can change the complexion of a game in his own unique way.

Speaking of which, you're going to find a lot of differing opinions about Rubio's ability to translate his style of play to the NBA. Some scouts still question his athleticism and perimeter shooting, with one GM we spoke to recently going as far as to say that he would “never draft a white guy.” Another NBA scout pointed out his incredible natural talent and basketball IQ, saying that “it's impossible for a player this smart not to end up being successful.”

Wonder where he'll end up. Here's hoping (1) he declares this year, but (2) worries about his shooting and buyout make him drop, and (3) he doesn't back out because Pritchard makes him a promise.

Another PG doing well in Spain is the much older Pablo Prigioni. I noticed him for the first time in the Olympics, as the only starter on Argentina that I'd never heard of (replacing Pepe Sanchez). I was impressed by his play there, and by a ringing endorsement from Gabe Mounoke, and I wondered if he'd be a better and cheaper target than someone like Bibby or Andre Miller if we're after a PG in the offseason:

Prigioni is the ultimate pass-first playmaker, a master of the pick and roll play. His virtuosity pairing with Luis Scola reminds us of the likes of Nash & Stoudemire or even Stockton & Malone. Indeed the team orchestrates its offensive game almost always starting from picks in the high post. He’s the engine that makes Tau run, a necessity for a team that is becoming dangerously dependant on him. In the final, he set a new record of assists in the competition, with 15 dimes. His court vision, while excellent, perhaps is not off the charts, but he’s incredibly smart and shows an awesome basketball IQ leading his team and a privileged quick mind.

That quick mind is seeding the terror on the rival point guards, victims of his hunger for steals. It’s rare the game that Prigioni doesn’t come away with a steal from an inbound pass after a basket. Everybody knows it already, but it keeps happening. In the Cup, he was even more prolific than usual.

 

[PapaG]

Getting torched by Corey L. Brewer isn't exactly a good sign.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I wonder if it'll ever be possible for NBA and non-NBA teams to do trades. I'm sure Sergio would be a big draw in Spain, and a big chunk of Paul Allen's (remaining) money would be nice. I'm sure the Player's Union would object for US Players, but I doubt Sergio would mind (particularly if the Blazers could keep paying him an NBA salary).

 

[Rastapopoulos]

PRIGIONI?

Bump.

The main reason for bumping this is not to report that Rubio appears to have recovered from his injury and played much better against Real Madrid, but because I see that I've mentioned Pablo Prigioni before in this thread. It looks like he's another free agent this offseason (anyone from Spain care to confirm that?) and I'd actually be more interested in him than someone like Bibby, and he'd almost certainly be cheaper. He was 32 yesterday, so he's 14 months younger than Andre Miller, 4 years and 2 months younger than Kidd and 3 years and 3 months younger than Nash. As I said above, I thought he was great playing for Argentina (I noticed him in particular because he was the only one I'd never heard of). Check out some videos of him. And if you can be bothered to download Silverlight, you can watch the entire Argentina v. USA Olympic semifinal.

(Of course, if we could get Rubio, then forget all this. But the number of teams drooling over him has gone up, and I just read somewhere that if NY picked first, they'd take him over Griffin.)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Prigioni is also 3-time All-ACB (and the highest vote-getter this year, and starting at PG over Ricky Rubio).

 

[Rastapopoulos]

And his pal Scola says he could "play for any NBA team right now".

 

[Nikolokolus]

Rasta, what do you honestly think the odds of us landing Rubio really are? 10:1 against, 100:1 against, 100,000:1 against?

I'm not trying to burst your bubble, because I think if there was someway to get Rubio without giving up the house to do it then I'd be all for getting him, but I can't envision any (realistic) scenario where A) a team would be eager to deal him, and B) the Blazers possessing the right assets (ie "willing to part with") to acquire him.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Not to get off topic but...

One player listed at 6'5" and the other is listed at 6'1"....

Hmm....

 

[Nikolokolus]

Not to get off topic but...

One player listed at 6'5" and the other is listed at 6'1"....

Hmm....

LOL. Look at their feet ... That's a photoshoped pic if I've ever seen one.

 

[Wheels]

they arent together on the photo. photoshopped my friend.. like this one

Wall is listed at 6'4" and Stephenson listed at 6'6"

 

[Nikolokolus]

You know what ... I'm looking at the photo of Jennings and Rubio again I'm not quite as sure it is photoshopped, but the shadows don't look consistent. Hmmm, tough call.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Does this help:

?

My vote is for photoshopped.

And as to your question, Nik, it all depends whether or not KP wants him. I do think it would probably take BOTH the right two teams picking 1 and 2, AND LaMarcus. (And then we sign Chris Bosh in 2010.)

 

[Nikolokolus]

Does this help:

?

My vote is for photoshopped.

And as to your question, Nik, it all depends whether or not KP wants him. I do think it would probably take BOTH the right two teams picking 1 and 2, AND LaMarcus. (And then we sign Chris Bosh in 2010.)

Ah, so the chance is essentially zero; there will be absolutely no cap room in 2010 to sign Chris Bosh (not to mention trying to compete with the other fifteen teams angling for cap room in 2010).

 

[SnakeOiler]

Rasta, what do you honestly think the odds of us landing Rubio really are? 10:1 against, 100:1 against, 100,000:1 against?

I'm not trying to burst your bubble, because I think if there was someway to get Rubio without giving up the house to do it then I'd be all for getting him, but I can't envision any (realistic) scenario where A) a team would be eager to deal him, and B) the Blazers possessing the right assets (ie "willing to part with") to acquire him.

What are the odds of him doing anything in the NBA? 1,000,000:1 He doesn't have it. If Sergio didn't, Rubio doesn't. They are the same player.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What are the odds of him doing anything in the NBA? 1,000,000:1 He doesn't have it. If Sergio didn't, Rubio doesn't. They are the same player.

You know it is possible to see a lot of footage of Rubio playing, not to mention watching him in the Olympics. Clearly this must be news to you, given what you've written.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Ah, so the chance is essentially zero; there will be absolutely no cap room in 2010 to sign Chris Bosh

Remind me why that is guaranteed?

(not to mention trying to compete with the other fifteen teams angling for cap room in 2010).

If you're right, then this is a moot point. But as you bring it up, if we did have cap room, wouldn't we be pretty attractive? Certainly more than most teams with cap room. I guess the common thought is that Bosh will try to team up with LeBron or Wade on some team that has enough cap room for them both. But who knows.

 

[tlongII]

Rubio's a nice player, but you would have to be crazy to give up LaMarcus to get him.

 

[Minstrel]

I don't think it would necessarily take giving up Aldridge to get Rubio. If Griffin goes first, as seems to be the consensus, and the team picking second doesn't love anyone remaining in the draft, I think it's conceivable that a package of Bayless/Portland's #1/cash/taking a bad contract back could do the trick. I would certainly do that. If the team picking second really does like Rubio, then it would take more than Portland should be willing to give up.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Remind me why that is guaranteed?

Ummm, Chances are pretty good Brandon and LaMarcus get extended this summer and their new deals are going to count against the 2010 cap figure. Of course it's "possible" KP decides not to offer extensions, letting them become restricted free agents next summer, but that wouldn't do any damn good either because both are going to represent capholds equal to 300% of their previous year's salary; for a sixth and second pick that isn't going to be chump change (17.5 million for LMA and 11.7 for Brandon).

The only way we have cap room that offseason is if KP renounces Brandon and LaMarcus next July. Getting excited about cap room in 2010 yet?

If you're right, then this is a moot point. But as you bring it up, if we did have cap room, wouldn't we be pretty attractive? Certainly more than most teams with cap room. I guess the common thought is that Bosh will try to team up with LeBron or Wade on some team that has enough cap room for them both. But who knows.

Attractive compared to what? Portland has never exactly been a hotbed of free agent recruiting -- the climate sucks in the winter, the city is very small, we play games after everbody on the East Coast has gone to bed, we're one of the whitest cities in America -- chances are with half the league under the cap, we'd be getting the second tier guys who can't afford to be quite as choosy.

 

[MAS RipCity]

that was the best picture they could have taken of john wall? yikes

 

[Sheldon Shape]

the climate sucks in the winter, the city is very small, we play games after everbody on the East Coast has gone to bed, we're one of the whitest cities in America -- chances are with half the league under the cap, we'd be getting the second tier guys who can't afford to be quite as choosy.

Spoken like a true Black Panther!

 

[Nikolokolus]

Spoken like a true Black Panther!

That's not a provocative statement, all you have to do is look at a U.S. Census table to get that information.

 

[shamelessblazer]

I think it would be awesome to get either Rubio or Jennings!

But I think we need a vet in front of them.

I'd be thrilled with any combo of Nash/Miller and Jennings/Rubio/Curry

So with cap space, Outlaw, Bayless, and Sergio could we angle for it?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I think it would be awesome to get either Iguodala or Iguodala!

But I think we need a vet in front of them.

I'd be thrilled with any combo of Iguodala/Iguodala and Iguodala/Iguodala/Iguodala

So with cap space, Iguodala, Iguodala, and Iguodala could we angle for it?

Fixed

 

[Minstrel]

Ummm, Chances are pretty good Brandon and LaMarcus get extended this summer and their new deals are going to count against the 2010 cap figure. Of course it's "possible" KP decides not to offer extensions, letting them become restricted free agents next summer, but that wouldn't do any damn good either because both are going to represent capholds equal to 300% of their previous year's salary; for a sixth and second pick that isn't going to be chump change (17.5 million for LMA and 11.7 for Brandon).

To be fair, Rasta was proposing dealing Aldridge away. So he wouldn't represent a caphold or be getting an extension on Portland's books.

I don't want to deal Aldridge away, because I don't think the chances of getting Bosh in 2010 are at all good, even if Portland had the necessary cap space...but I wonder how much cap space Portland would have in 2010 if they did trade Aldridge (I guess we'd have to assume for an expiring contract in addition to the Rubio draft pick).

 

[SnakeOiler]

You know it is possible to see a lot of footage of Rubio playing, not to mention watching him in the Olympics. Clearly this must be news to you, given what you've written.

Yeah, I'm delusional. I am proud of my delusions, I try hard to achieve them.

I've seen him play. He plays like a lot of other players that want to make it to the NBA, desperate. He will get his shot because he is good enough to get a shot at the NBA. He has a skill set and upside roughly equivalent to Sergio. Why take all the risk of trading away any quality, proven player for a maybe a little better than Sergio? Makes no sense. Portland needs experienced players not rookies that want a chance.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Maybe you're right - maybe they ARE the same player!

 

[Nikolokolus]

To be fair, Rasta was proposing dealing Aldridge away. So he wouldn't represent a caphold or be getting an extension on Portland's books.

I don't want to deal Aldridge away, because I don't think the chances of getting Bosh in 2010 are at all good, even if Portland had the necessary cap space...but I wonder how much cap space Portland would have in 2010 if they did trade Aldridge (I guess we'd have to assume for an expiring contract in addition to the Rubio draft pick).

You're still going to have to deal with Brandon's extension which is probably going to be a max deal.

Add that 14 million dollar extension or 12 million dollar caphold to the maximum amount of capspace we could have next year (even with LaMarcus traded for an expiring) and I'm guessing it works out to something close to 7-10 million (I don't have the time to run the numbers this morning).

 

[BrianFromWA]

The max that Roy and LMA can be offered is probably going to be 13.8M (assuming that BRI stays about the same from 2008 to 2009). Let's just assume that (though I'm not sure LMA will get the max, but for

For instance, if we pulled off this trade (with CHI getting the #24, SAC getting the #17, and us getting the #2), we'd be slightly over the cap this summer at 60.3M (but have an MLE and BAE to use) have a 2010 summer salary of 49.0M and 10 men on the roster (the cap hold would be somewhere around 50M b/c of the two min salary holds we have to have to get to 12 players)
Roster in Summer 2010
PG: Rubio, Kopo
SG: Roy, Rudy
SF: Webs, Batum
PF: LMA, Freeland
C: Oden
2010 Draft Pick

The goal would be to get to the point that we could offer a close-to-max contract. Since most believe the 2010 salary cap will be lower than today's (and the commensurate drop in BRI), the max will be somewhere around 16M starting salary for the players we'd be going after (classes of 2002-2004). Assuming a cap of 56M, we'd need to be down around 40M cap hold to sign someone (LBJ, Bosh, Wade, etc.) IF they opt out. That can't really happen unless we trade Roy or LMA.

Tangent about this year
I think getting Rubio, while not a slam dunk, is definitely do-able. If we did the trade above, I think that signing Kidd to a one-year deal at MLE wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Yes, he's old. Yes, he's getting abused by quick PGs. He's still pretty darn good at getting the ball to people in the position to score. If he'd sign for the MLE, I'd even consider signing Andre Miller for a 2-year deal (NOT BIBBY!). While I shudder at the thought of moving Joel, I'd do it in a heartbeat for Rubio. I think Brad Miller could join a pretty good 3 man-rotation of LMA, Oden and BMiller at the 4/5 next year, with Freeland around for seasoning.

 

[MAS RipCity]

07- we wanted Conley
08- we wanted Rose, Mayo, Westbrook, or Bayless
09- we want Jennings, Rubio, or Lawson,etc
who will it be in 2010?
Seriously, let's stick with Bayless and see what he has