Laying Odds

[Nikolokolus]

By percentages what do people think A) are the chances of the Jazz being able to move Boozer in a trade in the next seven days and (highly correlated to this) B) what do you think the odds are that Utah matches the deal if they aren't able to move Boozer?

My guess is
A)= 80% chance
and
B)= 5% chance

 

[Minstrel]

By percentages what do people think A) are the chances of the Jazz being able to move Boozer in a trade in the next seven days and (highly correlated to this) B) what do you think the odds are that Utah matches the deal if they aren't able to move Boozer?

My guess is
A)= 80% chance
and
B)= 5% chance

A. 30% chance
B. 60% chance

 

[Nikolokolus]

A. 30% chance
B. 60% chance

Damn, I think I just miscalculated something. The Jazz have all the way until the trade deadline to move Boozer and not have to pay the luxury tax, don't they?

I think I'm revising B to 80%

 

[Ed O]

A. 75%
B. 50.03%



Ed O.

 

[B-Roy]

Damn, I think I just miscalculated something. The Jazz have all the way until the trade deadline to move Boozer and not have to pay the luxury tax, don't they?

I think I'm revising B to 80%

Tell me if I'm missing something, but if they move Boozer, they have to make sure they aren't taking much salary back right? And they can't do that without Portland or OKC.

I mean, if Boozer was hypothetically moved for Rip Hamilton, they still have to pay Rip and go over the tax right?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Tell me if I'm missing something, but if they move Boozer, they have to make sure they aren't taking much salary back right? And they can't do that without Portland or OKC.

I mean, if Boozer was hypothetically moved for Rip Hamilton, they still have to pay Rip and go over the tax right?

And guess what kind of player OKC needs? Call me crazy but I think Boozer is going to be kicking it with the Thunder next season.

 

[B-Roy]

And guess what kind of player OKC needs? Call me crazy but I think Boozer is going to be kicking it with the Thunder next season.

They will have capspace regardless, and given their current uninterest in Millsap and Boozer, leads me to believe that they are looking at someone else they want to sign. Possibly Bosh?

Either way, until they show some interest, they are a no-factor.

 

[Ed O]

And guess what kind of player OKC needs? Call me crazy but I think Boozer is going to be kicking it with the Thunder next season.

This would be my bet, too. Utah could send Boozer and their first next season to OKC. They'd still have NY's pick in the draft and they'd be able to MUCH more easily afford to match the offer for Millsap.

Ed O.

 

[andalusian]

The Jazz would have to pay a part of the lux-tax if they only move Booz at the trade-deadline and do not take all that salary back.

But, the most important thing is that at this point in time there are two teams in the league with salary cap that can take Booz and not return the same amount in salary:

1. Blazers.
2. OKC.

If Utah wants to avoid an ugly luxury tax - they have 7 days to work on a trade with the Blazers or OKC - or involve one of them in a multi-team trade.

Hey, maybe we can absorb some of Millsap's salary for them in a trade for NY's unprotected 1st next year and go for that Wall kid or something

 

[Nikolokolus]

They will have capspace regardless, and given their current uninterest in Millsap and Boozer, leads me to believe that they are looking at someone else they want to sign. Possibly Bosh?

Either way, until they show some interest, they are a no-factor.

But what if all they have to do is give up their cap space to get him (sort of like Denver dumping Camby on the Clips last summer)? That's a helluva lot more of a sure thing than competing with half of the league next off-season for the top tier free agents.

 

[Ed O]

They will have capspace regardless, and given their current uninterest in Millsap and Boozer, leads me to believe that they are looking at someone else they want to sign. Possibly Bosh?

Either way, until they show some interest, they are a no-factor.

Bosh isn't a free agent until next year.

Adding Boozer, especially if they get additional value in the form of picks and/or cash from Utah, makes a lot of sense for the Thunder.

It helps preserve their current cap space for next year while making their team THIS year markedly better. The team could start Boozer at the 4 and bring Green off the bench to back up both forward spots and power forward becomes a strength of the team.

After this year? They could let him walk, or at least dangle in the wind until they are able to spend their cap money (which they'd reclaim by renouncing him) on another player.

Ed O.

 

[andalusian]

My gut feeling is that OKC is not going to be interested in Boozer unless they get the NYC high-pick from Utah - because Boozer needs a lot of shots on a team that already has a lot of gunners but offers non of the defense that OKC lacks. The question is - does OKC want to screw Portland or do they want to screw Utah. My understanding is that Presti and KP are friends - so my gut tells me - OKC is not going to touch Boozer with a 10-ft pole.

 

[Denny Crane]

The Jazz would have to pay a part of the lux-tax if they only move Booz at the trade-deadline and do not take all that salary back.

But, the most important thing is that at this point in time there are two teams in the league with salary cap that can take Booz and not return the same amount in salary:

1. Blazers.
2. OKC.

If Utah wants to avoid an ugly luxury tax - they have 7 days to work on a trade with the Blazers or OKC - or involve one of them in a multi-team trade.

Hey, maybe we can absorb some of Millsap's salary for them in a trade for NY's unprotected 1st next year and go for that Wall kid or something

Detroit, Memphis, Minnesota, and even Toronto have enough cap space to really help Utah. There are other teams with LT space who could take on Boozer's deal saving Utah at least 25% of Boozer's contract and the tax penalty on it.

 

[B-Roy]

Detroit, Memphis, Minnesota, and even Toronto have enough cap space to really help Utah. There are other teams with LT space who could take on Boozer's deal saving Utah at least 25% of Boozer's contract and the tax penalty on it.

Detroit exhausted all their capspace. Memphis did as well. Minnesota won't have any once they sign their rookies. Toronto has none.

 

[number 10]

A = 20% chance of moving Boozer without the Blazers being involved, because they need either OKC or Portland, and as mentioned above, OKC doesn't seem interested.
B = 5% - Millsap and Boozer are too expensive for them.

 

[tlongII]

So you're saying there's a chance?

 

[B-Roy]

But what if all they have to do is give up their cap space to get him (sort of like Denver dumping Campy on the Clips last summer)? That's a helluva lot more of a sure thing than competing with half of the league next off-season for the top tier free agents.

Damn.

 

[ehizzy3]

A = 20% chance of moving Boozer without the Blazers being involved, because they need either OKC or Portland, and as mentioned above, OKC doesn't seem interested.
B = 5% - Millsap and Boozer are too expensive for them.

agree'd

 

[Blazer4life]

While not laying odds I did want to add to this topic. I think there are 3 things that can possibly happen.

1) Utah trades Boozer to most likely Chicago and we assist them in giving Utah cap space for Hinrich all the while knowing that once Utah has the capspace they will immediately match the Milsap offer. While I like Hinrich this means we used our capspace for him therefore I hope more is included in the trade for us otherwise why help Utah and Chicago for just Hinrich? If we wanted a PG so bad with our capspace we could've just signed Miller and not helped out a division rival. Also then we would have Blake and Bayless as well. Blake would have to be moved but to who?

2) Utah doesn't match and we end up with Milsap

3) Utah can't find a Boozer location and matches the offer. This is the 2nd most likely scenario as others have mentioned they would then have till the trade deadline to move Boozer. Problem is, what team would have cap space available at that time to avoid them having to pay a hefty luxury tax. Probably none.


I think the 1st choice is most likely closely followed by the 2nd. I think the 3rd choice is almost certainly not gonna happen. I think if Utah threatens to match if we don't assist them in the trade then Pritchard will play hard ball. Utah and for that matter Chicago would need to know that we are the ones assisting in the deal therefore Bayless won't be included (sorry Chicago) and if Utah wants our capspace in order to resign Milsap then Hinrich alone may not be enough. Utah will have to pony up someone or draft picks as well. I mean lets be honest, Chicago would greatly improve with a low post presence like Boozer and Utah gains the cap relief they need in order to resign Milsap all with the aid of Portland. Why shouldn't we ask for more to be part of such a trade. We are the ones they need to make things happen unless they can convince OKC to take on a bloated contract. They are still a few years away so good luck