Lessons from Preseason

[Rastapopoulos]

Yang will run hot and cold and mostly the latter for a while.
Clingan can be rendered pretty much invisible.
Jrue is currently our most important player (please stay healthy)
Followed by Toumani (ditto)
Rupert just doesn't look like he's going to make it.
Murray can be a rotation player if he can hit his threes but not otherwise.
Sidy Cissoko has less of a jumper than rookie Shaq.

On the plus side: Sharpe looks good. Now he just has to maintain focus.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Forgot: it was no disgrace that Caleb Love went undrafted.
But for all my pessimism, I do not miss Ayton or Anfernee one iota.

 

[Cugel]

It is going to be a very long winter. Not seeing how DC and co matchup well against other bigs. Fire away.

 

[e_blazer]

Biggest takeaway: our end of bench players may constitute the worst closing unit in the league.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Same as most preseasons.
Need more talent.

 

[THE HCP]

Forgot: it was no disgrace that Caleb Love went undrafted.
But for all my pessimism, I do not miss Ayton or Anfernee one iota.

Honest question, do you think we would have won last night’s game or would we win more games this season WITH DA and Ant? I don’t care about EPA rankings or Defensive Efficiency or any of that…… Would we win more games this season with DA and Ant?

 

[THE HCP]

I liked what I saw actually in our scoring. Considering we might be the worst shooting team in the league with the worst offense…… I was content. I don’t like Jrue having to put up those kind of numbers in a meaningless preseason game though. We looked like a 32 win team to be honest. I’m excited to see the full compliment out there trapping other teams on the defense will be fun to watch,

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

Honest question, do you think we would have won last night’s game or would we win more games this season WITH DA and Ant? I don’t care about EPA rankings or Defensive Efficiency or any of that…… Would we win more games this season with DA and Ant?

For me it breaks down like this:

Having Ant means no Holiday... I think Holiday will contribute more to wins than Ant, so NO. I think Holiday's impact will be ~ +3 games

Ayton may have allowed Blazers to win 2-3 more games than we will without him.

The net impact of not having those two is negligible at best

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Honest question, do you think we would have won last night’s game or would we win more games this season WITH DA and Ant? I don’t care about EPA rankings or Defensive Efficiency or any of that…… Would we win more games this season with DA and Ant?

Honest answer: (1) I don't really care about any preseason game except as a venue to look at what changes our players have made to their games over the Summer, and (2) I honestly don't think we'd win more with them. And I absolutely believe I'd get less enjoyment out of watching the team.

Now, if you put either one of them on a team in Europe, would that team instantly be a contender? Almost certainly, because their offensive skills would be so much better than the average player that it would be like a good college player showing up at your neighborhood pickup game. But even if both of them are above average in the NBA at what they're good at, they're also below average at a whole bunch of other things, so they're a net negative. You're fixating on the fact that they're better than most of our players at scoring. But that's not why we got rid of them (and why we had to literally buy out Ayton's contract - explain that if he's so fucking useful).

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Biggest takeaway: our end of bench players may constitute the worst closing unit in the league.

What if that league is the G-League, the league they'll actually be playing in?

 

[THE HCP]

For me it breaks down like this:

Having Ant means no Holiday... I think Holiday will contribute more to wins than Ant, so NO. I think Holiday's impact will be ~ +3 games

Ayton may have allowed Blazers to win 2-3 more games than we will without him.

The net impact of not having those two is negligible at best

Great point on Ant, I was only taking into account what we were losing with Ant and not what Jrue is bringing in. Love his game but hope he doesn’t have to play more than 25 minutes a game though.

 

[THE HCP]

Honest answer: (1) I don't really care about any preseason game except as a venue to look at what changes our players have made to their games over the Summer, and (2) I honestly don't think we'd win more with them. And I absolutely believe I'd get less enjoyment out of watching the team.

Now, if you put either one of them on a team in Europe, would that team instantly be a contender? Almost certainly, because their offensive skills would be so much better than the average player that it would be like a good college player showing up at your neighborhood pickup game. But even if both of them are above average in the NBA at what they're good at, they're also below average at a whole bunch of other things, so they're a net negative. You're fixating on the fact that they're better than most of our players at scoring. But that's not why we got rid of them (and why we had to literally buy out Ayton's contract - explain that if he's so fucking useful).

But what about the fact that scoring and our offense will definitely be our biggest concern this season? Thats why I’m fixated on it. We are going to have nights where we won’t get 10 points out of our low post players. Thats a fact FAMS!

 

[THE HCP]

What if that league is the G-League, the league they'll actually be playing in?

How deep do you think we really are? Not sure we can even count on RW3 or Matisse being out there much. Thats why Scoot going down really has me stressed. I don’t want Jrue having to carry a big load.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Honest question, do you think we would have won last night’s game or would we win more games this season WITH DA and Ant? I don’t care about EPA rankings or Defensive Efficiency or any of that…… Would we win more games this season with DA and Ant?

Considering both were terrible defensive players and perpetual offensive black holes, I don't think we win more games with them. Yeah, there may be a game or two that we would win with them, but I think there would be more that we would lose.

The offense has looked relatively good with good ball movement. I do not see that being the case with those two.

As @CJ_is_Gone pointed out, having Ant means no Jrue and I think that switching those two is a huge loss for the Blazers. Jrue may not be the defensive stopper he once was but he is still better than Ant and plays better team ball.

Short-term (this year), I think we are about even or maybe slightly ahead.

Long-term, I think we are much better off going with what we have than keeping tweedle-dee-do and tweedle-dee-dum.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

With a healthy team, we would have gone 4-1, and the majority of you would be saying we're a playoff team.

We need to cover Jrue in bubble wrap and trade Grant. Give the young guys lots of minutes and enjoy their development.

 

[riverman]

With Matisse, Scoot, Toumani and Rob Will we win most of our preseason games...not with Cook, Cissoko, Rupert and Love..We haven't seen our real 10 man rotation yet...we have seen our Remix projects.

 

[THE HCP]

Considering both were terrible defensive players and perpetual offensive black holes, I don't think we win more games with them. Yeah, there may be a game or two that we would win with them, but I think there would be more that we would lose.

The offense has looked relatively good with good ball movement. I do not see that being the case with those two.

As @CJ_is_Gone pointed out, having Ant means no Jrue and I think that switching those two is a huge loss for the Blazers. Jrue may not be the defensive stopper he once was but he is still better than Ant and plays better team ball.

Short-term (this year), I think we are about even or maybe slightly ahead.

Long-term, I think we are much better off going with what we have than keeping tweedle-dee-do and tweedle-dee-dum.

Great points. I just truly believe opposing coaches would much rather go up against us with what we have a center currently than if DA were out there. They aren’t worried at all about DC/Yang Just my opinion. We’ll find out real quick next weekend. I believe we play the Lakers and Clips.

 

[Pinwheel1]

With a healthy team, we would have gone 4-1, and the majority of you would be saying we're a playoff team.

We need to cover Jrue in bubble wrap and trade Grant. Give the young guys lots of minutes and enjoy their development.

Sly, I don't see how trading Grant would help the young guys develop. At that position, we are only talking about Deni and Tou. They are already nursing minor injuries, so more minutes will not help. I think Grant complements them. At least the Jerami from last night.

Before we moved Ayton and Ant, I was all for trading Grant, but that ship has sailed. If the goal is to make the playoffs, and it should be, then we need Jermi badly. If you can trade him for a talented scorer, then fine, but his salary makes that really difficult.

 

[riverman]

Clingan, Murray, Sharpe and Grant and Toumani are all improved over last season so far.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Sly, I don't see how trading Grant would help the young guys develop. At that position, we are only talking about Deni and Tou. They are already nursing minor injuries, so more minutes will not help. I think Grant complements them. At least the Jerami from last night.

Before we moved Ayton and Ant, I was all for trading Grant, but that ship has sailed. If the goal is to make the playoffs, and it should be, then we need Jermi badly. If you can trade him for a talented scorer, then fine, but his salary makes that really difficult.

I get what you're saying, but Grant is not part of this team's future. We need assets so our new owner will have lots of pieces to play with.

There will be contending teams that will have injuries this year, and they will overpay for Grant and Jrue. If the deal is right, you have to move them.

If that means playing with an unbalanced roster with a team that isn't going to make the playoffs with Grant and Jrue, then that is what we have to do.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

I get what you're saying, but Grant is not part of this team's future. We need assets so our new owner will have lots of pieces to play with.

There will be contending teams that will have injuries this year, and they will overpay for Grant and Jrue. If the deal is right, you have to move them.

If that means playing with an unbalanced roster with a team that isn't going to make the playoffs with Grant and Jrue, then that is what we have to do.

I'm with both of you. If Grant doesn't start, he is our best guy off the bench.

Is he overpaid? Yes.
Does is still produce? Yes.

It seems (small sample size warning) that he is playing better in a team schema this year. I think trading the other two of our supposed "big 3" was a wake up call. I also wonder if having Dame and Jrue around help him focus on reality with respect to where he fits in the overall scheme of things.

If we get a great offer for him then trade him. Otherwise, we don't have the necessary skills to trade him.

Unlike DA and Ant, I think Grant can fit into our team dynamic and be a solid contributing player.

Of last year's overpaid 3, I'm glad we got rid of the two we did and am fine with having Grant.

 

[MrDraftGuy]

Judging by the guys who will be playing the bulk of the minutes - Toumani, Deni, Sharpe, Jrue, Clingan, Grant, I think it's clear the defensive identity wasn't a fluke for those who still harbored doubts. If everyone commits to defense and Sharpe shows the passable defensive effort he currently demonstrates, that should suggest 30+ wins (like last season) based on the defensive identity alone.

For the offense, Sharpe and Deni both looked good and Toumani seems to have positioned himself into being a reliable 3nD guy. Victories will depend on who else chips in, on any given night.

This preseason, Sharpe averaged 19ppg on 45FG% in 27mpg. Per 36, that is 24PPG. I'd expect something like that, going forward. 23ppg in 32.5 minutes.....which would be above any scorer on the team from last season.

If so, that'll probably notch extra wins, as well. Guessing this means 38-42 wins and play-in contender.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I get what you're saying, but Grant is not part of this team's future. We need assets so our new owner will have lots of pieces to play with.

There will be contending teams that will have injuries this year, and they will overpay for Grant and Jrue. If the deal is right, you have to move them.

If that means playing with an unbalanced roster with a team that isn't going to make the playoffs with Grant and Jrue, then that is what we have to do.

I am all for getting assets for either, or even just ending contracts, if the team is looking bad with them. However, if the team is looking bad, then more than likely they are also playing poorly. So any decent trade may be difficult. It's not like they didn't try trading Grant before. So, whether or not we want to keep him or move him, we all need him to play well before the deadline.

 

[noknobs]

My main takeaway is that health is going to be very important. The end of our bench is just not good enough to compete. Hurry back Scoot, Deni, Camara, Matisse and Timelord.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

With Matisse, Scoot, Toumani and Rob Will we win most of our preseason games...not with Cook, Cissoko, Rupert and Love..We haven't seen our real 10 man rotation yet...we have seen our Remix projects.

This right here!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

There are definite positives to having a shitty pre-season.
1. No complacency. The players have no right to feel smug.
2. Lowered expectations. Kick ass in the pre-season and struggle in the early going in the real thing and everybody's up in arms. But struggle in the pre-season and do slightly better in the early going? Happy fans!

 

[blazerkor]

My takeaways are that Shaedon has made a huge leap forward on defense and some steps forward on offense.

Deni looks the same which is not a bad thing at all.

Jrue looks like last season was just a bad year not the start to a decline.

Jerami also looks like last season was the same thing as Jrue's was (he's still overpaid).

Our Centers are going to have a rough go. This defense is set up to be way better with more mobile and switchable 5s and both or our healthy guys are definitely old school drop coverage guys.

What the last two games showed me is that Tou is the difference between our team being a mediocre (no offense @Mediocre Man ) and being an upper echelon defense in the NBA.

Most importantly these are impressions I got from a limited sample size of watching four games that don't matter, in other words the preseason should always be taken with a full shaker of salt.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Would we be better off with a smaller, more mobile center? Here's an idea that I'm not endorsing, just putting out there: New Jersey wanted Yang bad. I bet they'd take Jerami + Yang for Nic Claxton. Are we already too much in love with Yang to do it? (I bet a lot of y'alls would've done it after the first preseason game.)

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

With a healthy team, we would have gone 4-1, and the majority of you would be saying we're a playoff team.

We need to cover Jrue in bubble wrap and trade Grant. Give the young guys lots of minutes and enjoy their development.

How?
Blazers only played 4 games total.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

With Matisse, Scoot, Toumani and Rob Will we win most of our preseason games...not with Cook, Cissoko, Rupert and Love..We haven't seen our real 10 man rotation yet...we have seen our Remix projects.

Disagree that we haven't seen the 10-man rotation...
Blazers are only ~8 players deep with playable NBA talent. (Holiday, Grant, Deni, Scoot, Sharpe, Clingan, Hansen, Camara)

On IR -> Dame, Rob, & Thybulle
Should be 14th/15th man or 2-way talents -> Murray, Wesley, Sidy
Not NBA talent -> Rupert, Reath, Love

The fact that Murray, Wesley, Sidy, and Love have played so much is a bad sign IMO.