Somebody needs to go check out the advanced stats at 82games.com.
Ricky Rubio Rookie season (41 games)
Production:
Own: 14.8
Opponent: 15.2
Net: -0.4
Damian Lillard Rookie season (23 games)
Production:
Own: 17.8
Opponent: 16.8
Net +1.0
So, Rubio the great defender gets outproduced by his opponent and Lillard out produces his opponent. No surprise there, guys who can't shoot have trouble outproducing anyone (see Sergio Rodriguez, you may have heard of him, he USED to play in the NBA).
You say, Rubio isn't about individual stats? OK, let's look team performance:
Ricky Rubio Rookie season (41 games)
On Court/Off Court:
Offense: +1.7
Defense: -5.3
Net: +7.0
Not bad, at least Rubio makes a positive contribution overall, to the tune of +7.0 points per 100 possessions, when he's on the court.
But, now let's look at rookie Lillard:
Damian Lillard Rookie season (23 games)
On Court/Off Court:
Offense: -2.0
Defense: -13.0
Net: +11.0
Lillard makes a bigger positive contribution, +11.0 points per 100 possessions.
Which explains why rookie Lillard's simple rating (+4.3) is over twice as high as rookie Rubio's (+2.1). Lillard has a much higher total positive impact on his team's performance than Rubio.
As far as Rubio being a top five defender at his position, dream on. Everyone here, including Lillard himself, acknowledges that Lillard needs to improve his defense, but he's actually almost as good on defense already as Rubio (and much better on offense):
Ricky Rubio Rookie season (41 games)
Player 48-Minute Production by Position:
Pts: 14.5
Opponent Pts: 19.8
Net: -5.3 points/48 minutes
PER: 14.8
Opponent PER: 16.4
Net: -1.6
Damian Lillard Rookie season (23 games)
Player 48-Minute Production by Position:
Pts: 23.9
Opponent Pts: 20.4
Net: +3.5 points/48 minutes
PER: 17.3
Opponent PER: 16.0
Net: +1.3
Both players play the same position in the same division of the same conference. They go head-to-head again the same opposing PGs every game. Rubio, the supposed top 5 defender holds his opponent to 0.6 pts/48 less than Lillard, the horrible defender. Yet, Lillard holds his opponents total production (PER = 16.0) to lower than Rubio does (PER = 16.4). So, explain please, how does this make Rubio a top 5 defender?
And, of course, when it comes to offense, Lillard totally trounces Rubio:
Net pts/48 = +9.4 in Lillard's favor
Net PER = +2.5 in Lillard's favor
But, what about when it REALLY counts, when the game is on the line? Let's look at the clutch statistics for these two and then determine who you'd rather have the ball in their hands when the game is on the line:
Ricky Rubio Rookie season (41 games)
Clutch Statistics:
Net Points: -9
Offense: 101.5
Defense: 106.7
Net/48: -5.2
Damian Lillard Rookie season (23 games)
Clutch Statistics:
Net Points: +25
Offense: 110.1
Defense: 87.8
Net/48: +22.4
Which explains why the Blazers are 4-0 in overtime games this season and won another close game on Lillard's last second 3-pointer last night.
And, where is Rubio's supposed great defense when the game is on the line. Lillard steps up under pressure, at both ends. Rubio wilts under pressure.
Rubio is a decent, but not great player. He's very flashy, but flashy doesn't win games. Until he learns how to shoot, teams will be able to sag off him and exploit this weakness, just like they did once they learned Sergio couldn't shoot.
Lillard, is definitely a much better overall player, especially with the game on the line. Ask any GM or coach in the league which player they'd rather build a team round, and I bet 30 out of 30 would pick Lillard - and that includs David Kahn and Rick Adelman. Kahn, because he's infatuated with all things Portland and Adelman because he's a smart coach who'd rather put the ball in Luke Ridenour's hands than Ricky Rubio's with the game on the line, and for good reason:
Luke Ridenour (2011-12):
Clutch Statistics:
Net Points: +11
Offense: 112.0
Defense: 106.5
Net/48: +5.5
So, in a direct comparison from last season (we can't do a comparison from this season, as Rubio hasn't played in any close games), Rubio isn't even the best PG on his own team when the game is on the line. He has an overall negative impact, and you can't blame his teammates, because Luke Ridenour, playing with those same teammates has an overall positive impact when the game is on the line.
BNM
