Let's talk Aminu

[hoopsjock]

Aminu is by far the most underrated player on the Blazers. He's our second best defender and, yes, our 3rd best player. Losing him would be a big mistake. Almost as big a mistake as it was to acquire Evan "Turner's Turn" Turner . "Turner's Turn" refers to the times that ET routinely decides it's simply his turn to shoot this time down the floor.

When you say he's our 3rd best player are you saying he's better than CJ or Nurk?

 

[hoopsjock]

I am fully on board the trade Aminu bandwagon. It's not even really because of his crappy play, he's just got one of the only somewhat trade-able contracts on the team. I don't want another situation like last year where instead of getting something for Davis and Napier we just let them walk for nothing (I know that was probably Dame's doing). I do respect that he plays defense and often guards a really good player, I'm just sick of watching other teams not even guard him on offense and instead of cutting he just stands there and continues to catapult shots. I think it's time to try a new strategy on offense and trading Aminu is one way to force that to happen.

 

[Reep]

Aminu should be our SF off the bench. In that role he is great. Unfortunately, there is no other plan. Mo would have many of the same issues, and Collins still is not ready. You have to either make a trade or wait.

As to dviss1's excellent question: right now it appears to be ET for guards or SF and would likely be Harkless for stretch 4s or maybe Collins--who isn't ready.

Reep's Needs List: a long guard who can defend next to Dame (give Trent Jr. a shot?); a true PF who can defend and shoot the three. This won't happen, but part of me wants them to get Trent Jr. minutes this year to develop him and see if he can be a rotation guard who can defend, and also just take your lumps and start Collins at PF. What we are doing right now is not working. We are getting killed by athletic guards and long 4s. If you give Trent Jr. more minutes and he can't defend then see if you can't trade the pick and/or Trent/CJ/Simons for someone who can.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Who would like to answer this simple, straightforward question, while also knowing I am in no way comparing Aminu to Pippen?

I'm a little late to the party, but here is my answer: the team is losing, so how much impact can Aminu be having?

If the Blazers were a really good team, Aminu's role as designated stopper would be praiseworthy. Since the Blazers are *not* a very good team, why waste playing time on a guy who might not even be here next season? Why not give those minutes to players who still have some potential to improve (EG Collins or Layman). The worst that can happen is that the team keeps losing....and there is the chance (albeit small) that you find a player that actually helps push the team toward contending.

 

[blue9]

I'm a little late to the party, but here is my answer: the team is losing, so how much impact can Aminu be having?

If the Blazers were a really good team, Aminu's role as designated stopper would be praiseworthy. Since the Blazers are *not* a very good team, why waste playing time on a guy who might not even be here next season? Why not give those minutes to players who still have some potential to improve (EG Collins or Layman). The worst that can happen is that the team keeps losing....and there is the chance (albeit small) that you find a player that actually helps push the team toward contending.

Exactly. Once a player's ability has been determined it's absolutely asinine to put him in a role that exceeds his ability - especially when you have multiple other players whose ability has not yet been determined.

 

[blue9]

I love Aminu.

But BOY is he in a shooting slump.

I don't think it qualifies as a slump when you have shot mechanics like Aminu. It just is what it is.

 

[bobf]

When you say he's our 3rd best player are you saying he's better than CJ or Nurk?

CJ

 

[bobf]

Here are Aminu's ESPN adjusted +/- for the past 5 years
+2.00
+1.27
+1.73
+2.67
+1.06

I know many of you probably think ESPN +/- is a crap stat. But you're wrong. It's the best single stat available so long as you take if over a long period of time (at least 3 seasons). It's simply a measure of "how much did my team outscore the opponent" when player X was on the floor, taking into account who he was playing with and who he was playing against.

The primary problem with this stat it has very high variance. A month of adjusted +/- is worthless. A single season is not super reliable. A single season of adjusted +/- is similar to judging a player's FT ability by looking his % after 30 free throws. Usually that will be a pretty good measure, but a 65% FT shooter might go 25/30 while a 90% FT shooter also might go 24/30. Not likely but possible. So you really need to look at at least 3 seasons of +/-.

Just to give you a benchmark, a +2.00 player is hard to come by. +2.00 is a top 60 player in the NBA.

Meanwhile here are Evan Turner's adjusted +/- for the past five seasons:
-3.15
-2.89
-1.61
-1.37
-2.79

 

[Reep]

Here are Aminu's ESPN adjusted +/- for the past 5 years
+2.00
+1.27
+1.73
+2.67
+1.06

I know many of you probably think ESPN +/- is a crap stat. But you're wrong. It's the best single stat available so long as you take if over a long period of time (at least 3 seasons). It's simply a measure of "how much did my team outscore the opponent" when player X was on the floor, taking into account who he was playing with and who he was playing against.

The primary problem with this stat it has very high variance. A month of adjusted +/- is worthless. A single season is not super reliable. A single season of adjusted +/- is similar to judging a player's FT ability by looking his % after 30 free throws. Usually that will be a pretty good measure, but a 65% FT shooter might go 25/30 while a 90% FT shooter also might go 24/30. Not likely but possible. So you really need to look at at least 3 seasons of +/-.

Just to give you a benchmark, a +2.00 player is hard to come by. +2.00 is a top 60 player in the NBA.

Meanwhile here are Evan Turner's adjusted +/- for the past five seasons:
-3.15
-2.89
-1.61
-1.37
-2.79

Is the question really if we should play ET instead of AFA? I don't disagree with your plus minus analysis, but most years, that puts Aminu in the 12-17 ranking of power forwards. I think most of us would like to see someone who might crack the top half more routinely. Maybe even take some painful losses by playing someone who might end up in the top half a year or so from now. Aminu won't likely do that.

For this year (unscientific)
1 Anthony Davis NO 16 37.4 2.79 3.00 5.79 3.59
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 18 33.4 2.23 2.31 4.54 3.10
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 21 29.1 2.01 2.32 4.33 3.02
4 Nemanja Bjelica SAC 20 24.6 1.31 2.75 4.06 2.33
5 Domantas Sabonis IND 18 24.7 1.46 1.78 3.24 1.74
6 Dwight Powell DAL 15 15.9 0.68 2.54 3.22 0.95
7 Paul Millsap DEN 20 26.5 0.22 2.85 3.07 2.06
8 Montrezl Harrell LAC 19 25.6 1.53 1.40 2.93 1.87
9 Mason Plumlee DEN 20 17.0 -0.21 3.09 2.88 1.24
10 Noah Vonleh NY 21 25.2 0.01 2.78 2.79 2.02
11 Blake Griffin DET 17 36.3 1.66 0.86 2.52 2.22
12 Nikola Mirotic NO 18 31.5 1.97 0.34 2.31 2.13
13 Draymond Green GS 13 30.5 -0.96 2.75 1.79 1.25
14 Serge Ibaka TOR 20 26.6 -0.10 1.70 1.60 1.65
15 Taj Gibson MIN 20 26.4 0.38 1.21 1.59 1.59
16 Ed Davis BKN 21 17.0 -0.42 1.91 1.49 0.97
17 Derrick Favors UTAH 19 23.1 -0.27 1.66 1.39 1.29
18 Swish3 POR 17 12.3 0.31 0.98 1.29 0.54

 

[bobf]

I don't think it qualifies as a slump when you have shot mechanics like Aminu. It just is what it is.

His shot is less trebuchet than it used to be. Last year he shot 37% from 3 while Dame shot 36%. Of course Dame has to take much harder 3's and is obviously much better. But that doesn't really matter. Aminu routinely get's wide open 3's. Those 3's are almost equal to Dame's typical 3 pointer.

 

[bobf]

Is the question really if we should play ET instead of AFA? I don't disagree with your plus minus analysis, but most years, that puts Aminu in the 12-17 ranking of power forwards. I think most of us would like to see someone who might crack the top half more routinely. Maybe even take some painful losses by playing someone who might end up in the top half a year or so from now. Aminu won't likely do that.

Some people are suggesting trade Aminu. I am saying, trade the real problem, ET. He sucks. Sure if you can manage to get a better PF I'm on board. That's not easy though. The only hope we have for that on the team is Collins and he's playing. You don't trade players who are already well above average for a hopeful.

 

[Reep]

Some people are suggesting trade Aminu. I am saying, trade the real problem, ET. He sucks. Sure if you can manage to get a better PF I'm on board. That's not easy though. The only hope we have for that on the team is Collins and he's playing. You don't trade players who are already well above average for a hopeful.

I don't disagree with you, but ET and his anchor contract aren't going anywhere. I wish they would. Aminu at least has some trade value, and is only average for us. Adding him or anything else not named Dame or Nurk to get a plus guard defender and PF-defender/scorer would be great. I don't see any way the temp-owners are going to resign Aminu. Better to get something for him if you can.

 

[jlprk]

I am fully on board the trade Aminu bandwagon.

Some people are suggesting trade Aminu. I am saying, trade the real problem, ET.

When the time comes for either to go, Olshey will give him away. He can't make trades.

(Now someone will pipe up in a squeaky voice, "But...but...In his 842 years as GM, he once got Nurkic! My grandfather told me about it!")

 

[ripcityboy]

Aminu should be our SF off the bench. In that role he is great. Unfortunately, there is no other plan. Mo would have many of the same issues, and Collins still is not ready. You have to either make a trade or wait.

As to dviss1's excellent question: right now it appears to be ET for guards or SF and would likely be Harkless for stretch 4s or maybe Collins--who isn't ready.

Reep's Needs List: a long guard who can defend next to Dame (give Trent Jr. a shot?); a true PF who can defend and shoot the three. This won't happen, but part of me wants them to get Trent Jr. minutes this year to develop him and see if he can be a rotation guard who can defend, and also just take your lumps and start Collins at PF. What we are doing right now is not working. We are getting killed by athletic guards and long 4s. If you give Trent Jr. more minutes and he can't defend then see if you can't trade the pick and/or Trent/CJ/Simons for someone who can.

 

[KingSpeed]

Great game by Aminu tonight, taking it to the rack. He is much improved this year.

 

[tykendo]

Great game by Aminu tonight, taking it to the rack. He is much improved this year.

This was definitely Chiefs best game by far. He's been, quite frankly, underwhelming this year, especially with his shooting. But goods things come to the Blazers if he can play more like this from here out. Nice to see.

 

[blue9]

... if he can play more like this from here out.

Hahahahah - good one!
Also, goes to prove that the teams that bet that Aminu can't beat them are right.

 

[Scalma]

Hahahahah - good one!
Also, goes to prove that the teams that bet that Aminu can't beat them are right.

Exactly. They’ll keep daring him to beat them and more often than not, he won’t. We need someone out there that teams would at least respect.

 

[hoopsjock]

I don't really mean this as a knock on Aminu even though it totally is, but I've never seen a player get so lucky when they literally just throw the ball at the hoop when they drive. The reason why Aminu is so inconsistent is because every single shot he takes (other than dunks) are not replicable. His shooting form is awful. When he gets near the hoop he just chucks the ball off the backboard.

 

[Labinot41]

Would be nice to have a PF who can hit open 3s on a regular basis.

 

[KingSpeed]

Would be nice to have a PF who can hit open 3s on a regular basis.

I hope a trade for Love is in the works. He can rebound and shoot better than Aminu and his defense is underrated. Get it done, Neil!

 

[Sarni]

I hope a trade for Love is in the works. He can rebound and shoot better than Aminu and his defense is underrated. Get it done, Neil!

Unless CJ leaves in that deal we would have his $28.9million on the books next year along with CJ's ($27.6million) and Dame's ($29.8million) huge deals. That's a lot of money for the core that will not compete for a chamionship.

 

[James lamphear]

I think Aminu will be gone after this year due to Olshey going to make Stotts start Zach. It the Davis type thing when he didn't sign him. I don't trade him at deadline due he doesn't want to mess with anything while we in the playoffs hunt. But I like Aminu due to he hustle all the time and wouldn't mind signing on reasonable contract.

 

[Labinot41]

I don't care about Aminu's hustling, in 16/17 he shot 33% 3s, in 17/18 36% and now he shot's 34%, he benefits like no other Player that he is always left open by opponents (was that correct english? I don't know but i guess you know what i mean haha). He just sucks as a shooter, you will never be able to rely on him. I want a Power forward who can shot !!!!!!

 

[Labinot41]

I know exactly who dwight means

 

[KingSpeed]

I don't care about Aminu's hustling, in 16/17 he shot 33% 3s, in 17/18 36% and now he shot's 34%, he benefits like no other Player that he is always left open by opponents (was that correct english? I don't know but i guess you know what i mean haha). He just sucks as a shooter, you will never be able to rely on him. I want a Power forward who can shot !!!!!!

Those aren’t horrible percentages but for fun, go look up his playoff percentages and post them here.

 

[BonesJones]

I know exactly who dwight means
View attachment 24259

Then they should CUT. Instead of spotting up on the corner, drive baseline.

 

[BonesJones]

Those aren’t horrible percentages but for fun, go look up his playoff percentages and post them here.

82-game samples > 4-game samples

 

[TBpup]

Those aren’t horrible percentages but for fun, go look up his playoff percentages and post them here.

For fun, look at how much of an impact he is having in the Playoffs. Teams design their defense around leaving him even more open than usual because even if he hits a few more shots, it is going to result in a W for them and L for us because he is still not a threat to change a game.

 

[twobullz]

I hope a trade for Love is in the works. He can rebound and shoot better than Aminu and his defense is underrated. Get it done, Neil!

What are they going do do the 20 plus games a year Love is hurt? At least you can count on Aminu. Love you can only count on one thing and that is he will miss a large part of the season.