Lillard rookie year stats projection

[illmatic99]

Just as a comparison of other scoring PGs.

Dame is older than nearly all of these guys, and has a pretty refined game already.

I'm expecting 18p-5a-3r with about 3tos.

 

[Natebishop3]

It all just depends on what kind of role we have him playing. There is no doubt in my mind that Lillard could score in this league if he wanted to. I could see him averaging 22+ ppg if that was what the team asked of him. What I would like to see from him is 18-20 ppg and 8 apg. The thing about Lillard, is that he needs the ball in his hands, so when Stotts has him passing it off immediately after he crosses the halfcourt line, that's not really playing to his strengths.

The Mavs turned Jason Kidd into a spot-up three point shooter. I hope to god that's not what Stotts is trying to do with Lillard.

 

[mook]

Just as a comparison of other scoring PGs.

Dame is older than nearly all of these guys, and has a pretty refined game already.

I'm expecting 18p-5a-3r with about 3tos.

Nice comparison list. Thanks for posting that.

 

[illmatic99]

Curry had a sick rookie year, btw. He's highly underrated. And Kyrie's efficiency is off the charts for such a young player.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I love Kyrie Irving. He's amazing to watch. He is so much better than John Wall. BUT: he's always injured, and apparently he was (by some measure) the worst defender in the entire league last year.

Agreed: Curry had a surprisingly impressive rookie year. That's probably the ceiling for Lillard. If he could be a Curry without the ankle problems, that would be gravy.

 

[Natebishop3]

I love Kyrie Irving. He's amazing to watch. He is so much better than John Wall. BUT: he's always injured, and apparently he was (by some measure) the worst defender in the entire league last year.

Agreed: Curry had a surprisingly impressive rookie year. That's probably the ceiling for Lillard. If he could be a Curry without the ankle problems, that would be gravy.

Ceiling in what way? Curry's game doesn't resemble Lillard at all.

 

[JDC]

14pts, 3.5reb, 5.5 ast, 2.8 to

 

[dviss1]

It all just depends on what kind of role we have him playing. There is no doubt in my mind that Lillard could score in this league if he wanted to. I could see him averaging 22+ ppg if that was what the team asked of him. What I would like to see from him is 18-20 ppg and 8 apg. The thing about Lillard, is that he needs the ball in his hands, so when Stotts has him passing it off immediately after he crosses the halfcourt line, that's not really playing to his strengths.

The Mavs turned Jason Kidd into a spot-up three point shooter. I hope to god that's not what Stotts is trying to do with Lillard.

This is simply not true. You don't seem to remember the DIME he threw JJ when he played off ball? Lillard plays off ball just fine.

 

[ironcrotch]

The Mavs turned Jason Kidd into a spot-up three point shooter. I hope to god that's not what Stotts is trying to do with Lillard.

You do realize that they turned him into a spot-up three point shooter because he is almost 40 and that is all he could do right.

Also, we saw a lot of Ronnie Price and Lillard, with Lillard playing off the ball a lot during the first preseason game. I'm guessing there will be a lot of that during the season too.

 

[mook]

This is simply not true. You don't seem to remember the DIME he threw JJ when he played off ball. Lillard plays off ball just fine.

That was a really sweet play. He dives in from the corner to under the hoop, receives the ball, and quickly whips it behind his back to Hickson for the easy dunk. Easily my favorite play of Lillard's young Blazer career--even better than his dunk in summer league.

 

[Denny Crane]

15/6 and the guy will be a stud in a couple of years.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

15/6 and the guy will be a stud in a couple of years.

Seems legit.

If he can pump up to 17/7, he'll be ROY.

 

[DeanMoriarty]

18/7/3 on 47 FG%

 

[Natebishop3]

This is simply not true. You don't seem to remember the DIME he threw JJ when he played off ball? Lillard plays off ball just fine.

I didn't say he couldn't play off the ball, but I think he needs the ball in his hands to be at his best.

 

[illmatic99]

Through 5 games in preseason: 17ppg, 6apg, 2.8rb, 50% fg, 41% 3pt, 93% ft. 3.6to in 30mins

Sick.

 

[theprunetang]

Through 5 games in preseason: 17ppg, 6apg, 2.8rb, 50% fg, 41% 3pt, 93% ft. 3.6to in 30mins

Sick.

That is awesome! And, not only is he just starting out and can still get better, he also hasn't been forcing the issue. I think that once he realizes he can score more and it will help the team, he can and will do it. And also, I don't expect this of a rookie, but during preseason he has been one of those mythological 50/40/90 guys. That does not happen very often. That stat alone leaves me completely excited for his future. I can't imagine a rookie pulling that off for a whole year....but I would love to be proven wrong.

 

[BigGameDamian]

I'm going to say 19pts 7assts and 3 rebounds.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

And also, I don't expect this of a rookie, but during preseason he has been one of those mythological 50/40/90 guys. That does not happen very often. That stat alone leaves me completely excited for his future. I can't imagine a rookie pulling that off for a whole year....but I would love to be proven wrong.

5 guards in NBA history have done that for a full year. I would be absolutely shocked to see Dame ever do it, let alone as a rookie.

 

[julius]

It's so weird to have a young PG on the team who isn't in need of a lot of refining.

Not that Lillard doesn't need some tweaking, but after years of having PG's who are either so-so, green, raw or already set in their ways (Telfair, Jack, Blake, Felton, Miller, Flynn, Damon), it's nice to have one who actually can shoot, pass and score.

It's almost a shock to the system.

 

[Blazinaway]

It's so weird to have a young PG on the team who isn't in need of a lot of refining.

Not that Lillard doesn't need some tweaking, but after years of having PG's who are either so-so, green, raw or already set in their ways (Telfair, Jack, Blake, Felton, Miller, Flynn, Damon), it's nice to have one who actually can shoot, pass and score.

It's almost a shock to the system.

LOL I hear U! It's like I have been transported to an alternate universe, don't wake me up!

 

[Eastoff]

LOL I hear U! It's like I have been transported to an alternate universe, don't wake me up!

But in this alternate universe, brandon Roy and greg oden never became the perennial all stars we all know and love!!!

 

[illmatic99]

Among players who qualify (sample size), Dame is third in the league in scoring in preseason behind only Melo and David Lee. And his FG% is better than both.

 

[theprunetang]

5 guards in NBA history have done that for a full year. I would be absolutely shocked to see Dame ever do it, let alone as a rookie.

Oh, I totally agree. I guess it just shocked me to see his numbers at 50/40/90 at this point. A smile went across my face and I had to say something. Of course, it is only preseason, and it is a small sample size, but just having his numbers around that very mythological and rare feat is pretty neat. If his numbers even hover around that during his career, we will have something very special on our hands.

 

[mook]

Through 5 games in preseason: 17ppg, 6apg, 2.8rb, 50% fg, 41% 3pt, 93% ft. 3.6to in 30mins

Sick.

God damn. 17ppg, 50/40/90. Anyone who can do that in a five game stretch, even if it's just preseason, is flat out ballin'.

You have to figure if the draft were held today he'd be picked #2.

 

[illmatic99]

I can totally see teams taking away some of those pullup open shots that's he's hitting in the secondary transition, but he can then open up his inside game when they close out on him (right now, he's shooting more than 5 threes a game). It might take a bit of time for him to adjust to these defenses, but having Nic/Wes/LA hit shots around him will definitely help. I'm just glad Stotts gave him the reins and is letting him figure things out on his own without micromanaging.

 

[mook]

I suppose they can try to close out on him more. But honestly, it seemed like teams were contesting a lot of those threes. He just has such a quick release, and an excellent handle that lets him get where ever he wants to on the perimeter. Baked into his awesome three point percentage are several pre-season broken plays where he's stuck with the ball 20 feet from the rim and 4 seconds on the clock. Those are going to be tough shots no matter who is guarding you.

I definitely agree that timing couldn't be better to ditch Nate and add Stotts. In much the same way that it was great timing that Nate was putting his imprint on the team when Roy came along.

 

[PapaG]

I definitely agree that timing couldn't be better to ditch Nate and add Stotts. In much the same way that it was great timing that Nate was putting his imprint on the team when Roy came along.

That's a very reasonable and objective analysis on the timing of Nate's coming and going. I happen to agree with it. What would have been unacceptable to me was if Canales had been given the HC position. A young team like the current team needs some veteran coaching, and Kaleb is still around to be pals with the players (which isn't a criticism of Canales). I think as Kaleb gains more coaching experience, he'll be ready to assume the job of professional head coach, and not just an extension of the players as the head coach.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I won't project stats, but I think DL will put up near all-star numbers. His future improvement will likely involve limiting his TOs.

 

[mook]

That's a very reasonable and objective analysis on the timing of Nate's coming and going. I happen to agree with it. What would have been unacceptable to me was if Canales had been given the HC position. A young team like the current team needs some veteran coaching, and Kaleb is still around to be pals with the players (which isn't a criticism of Canales). I think as Kaleb gains more coaching experience, he'll be ready to assume the job of professional head coach, and not just an extension of the players as the head coach.

Seems ridiculous now to think that Canales was a real option at head coach. What a wreck that would've been.

 

[theprunetang]

Also, I have posted in this thread but have yet to project my statistical predictions. Here goes.

16.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 6.8 apg, 2.9 topg, 1.2 spg, 47% 2's, 38% 3's, 90% Ft's.
While that may be slightly optimistic for any rookie. I think it is definitely in the realm of the possible. And that feels really good to say.