By Jason Quick
Want to know how dire things have become in Rip City?
Damian Lillard — the heartbeat of the Trail Blazers’ franchise and the self-proclaimed most optimistic person on the planet — was talking hard truths on Thursday.
A master motivator who has remained upbeat throughout the lowest of lows, Lillard on Thursday gave one of his more matter-of-fact postgame interviews in his nine seasons in Portland. He used words like “heart” and “pride” and said it’s time for the Blazers to “look in the mirror.”
This came after the Blazers were drilled once again by a West power, 122-103 at Utah, dropping the Blazers to 1-8 against the top five teams in the West. The loss also allowed seventh-place Dallas to move to within one game of the sixth-place Blazers (30-21).
“When we play against the top-level teams, we don’t play well,” Lillard said. “We get put away. At Phoenix, we got put away. Tonight, we got put away. At Denver, we got put away. Milwaukee at home, put away. Clippers, got put away. I mean, it’s not like it’s a small sample size. It’s what happens.”
With 21 games left, it is not a pretty picture for the Blazers. They rank 29th in defensive rating. And they are not only 1-8 against the West’s elite (Utah, Phoenix, Clippers, Denver, Lakers) they are often not competitive. In those nine games, the Blazers are outscored by an average of nearly 14 points. Of the Blazers’ 30 wins, only eight have come against teams who have winning records today (Philadelphia twice, Dallas twice, the Lakers, Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami).
“We have to look in the mirror, and you gotta look at it,” Lillard said. “You have to look at the games we’ve won, and you have to look at the games we’ve struggled in. The games we’ve struggled in have been against the top-level competition. I don’t think it’s hard to see. I’m not saying nothing that’s not obvious.
“I think for us, the first step is just acknowledging the fact that’s the truth. And just being sharper, and locked in, and just taking that to heart. Having some pride about the fact that we don’t play well against the top-level teams. We have to take that to heart … have something prove. Have some pride about those games. I think that’s the start.”
Of the Blazers’ 21 remaining games, 15 are against teams that are .500 or better today. From the start of training camp, this team has talked about being a contender and they have talked about improving their defense, but the only consistencies have been injuries to key players and historically poor defense. The Blazers have shown flashes throughout the season, but flashes are good enough to beat the likes of Orlando and Sacramento, not the Clippers and Utah.
“When we play against the better teams, where you have to be consistent and sustain a certain level of focus, you have to be sharp,” Lillard said. “Physically, mentally, you have to be present, you have to be ready to go. These are top-level teams and those are the teams we are trying to be next to, we trying to be in that same bubble of teams, and when those games have come, we just haven’t shown we are that level of team.
“We are capable of it,” Lillard said. “And I think all you all known I’m the most optimistic, the biggest believer. But there comes a time when you get on the floor, you’ve got to do it. You have to show that you are that level of team. And we haven’t shown it when those matchups come.”
As Lillard says, it’s easy to see the Blazers haven’t been competitive against good competition. But what are some of the issues? And what are some of the solutions? Let’s take a closer look:
Problem: Melo and Kanter are a rough pairing
It’s too harsh to pin all the Blazers’ defensive problems on
Carmelo Anthony and
Enes Kanter because really, the Blazers are bad defensively with any lineup that doesn’t include
Jusuf Nurkic as the center. Still, several games this season have turned when Anthony and Kanter are on the floor together, as neither player moves well laterally on defense.
Thursday in Utah was the latest example. Stotts paired Anthony and Kanter together for a total of 8:48 over three shifts, during which the Blazers were outscored by 19 points. That’s staggering, game-changing stuff.
They were together for 2:05 in the first quarter, during which Utah turned a three-point deficit into a one-point lead; and they played 3:44 of the second quarter when a tie game turned into a four-point deficit. And the Anthony/Kanter pairing was in the middle of the game-changing stretch of the game, a 21-2 run by Utah, during which Anthony and Kanter were on the court together for 2:59 during which Portland was outscored 13-2.
So all told, in that 8:48 on Thursday, the Blazers were outscored 29-10 with Anthony and Kanter on the court at the same time. This season, the Blazers have a defensive rating of 118.4 with Kanter and Anthony on the floor together … which is terrible.
I asked Stotts after the game if he has any reservations about the defensive pairing of Anthony and Kanter.
“It hasn’t been good, for long stretches,” Stotts said. “But with Nurk coming back, and the rotation, that’s kind of the way it works. Over the long haul defensively, it has not been good, so that is a concern, and we have to work through it.”
I asked what “work through it” means and Stotts’ answer was honest but concerning.
“We have to get better because those two guys are going to play off the bench,” Stotts said. “It’s just the way it is. Nurk is going to start, Enes is our backup center, Melo is our backup four man, so they will play and we have to be better with those two on the floor.”
Stotts added that he’s not focused entirely on the defensive aspect of the pairing as much as he is concerned about the combined output.
“With those two on the floor, it has to be a net positive,” Stotts said. “What Enes can bring to the offensive end, what Melo can bring to the offensive end — my biggest concern is that it’s a net positive. If we lose a little bit on defense, we have to make up for it on offense.”
Saying Anthony and Kanter will play no matter what is a bit concerning, considering this season’s body of work. It also speaks to the corner the Blazers may have backed themselves into when promising Anthony they would protect his legacy by essentially guaranteeing they would not embarrass him by benching him.
I’m not suggesting Anthony or Kanter be benched. Both have been valuable to the team’s success this season. Kanter has broken teams’ backs with his offensive rebounding, and Anthony has been a tremendous late-game weapon.
But if Stotts continues to see fewer “net positives” from that pairing, it will be interesting to see what he protects more: Anthony’s legacy, Kanter’s feelings, or his job.
Solution: Experiment more with Derrick Jones Jr.?
Stotts made it clear on Thursday that the Blazers have committed to the three-guard starting lineup of Lillard, CJ McCollum and Norman Powell. A byproduct of that decision has been a tapering of Derrick Jones Jr.’s role. Jones Jr. averaged 26.5 minutes before the trade for Powell and has played 16 minutes a game since.
Here’s a question: if the Blazers’ biggest problem is defense, why not play Jones Jr. — one of your better defenders — more minutes rather than fewer minutes? This is just spitballing, but one lineup that hasn’t been looked at: the three-guard lineup with Jones Jr. at power forward and Robert Covington at center.
Before Nurkic came back, the Blazers were encouraged by “going small” with Covington playing center alongside Anthony at power forward. They liked the idea of having five shooters on the court at the same time and felt that Covington’s savvy, skill and strength adequately countered most centers. Jones isn’t on the same offensive level of Anthony, but again, this team’s focus should be on shoring up its defense.
I asked Stotts about Jones’ marked dip in minutes, and the irony that a team searching for defense is playing a defensive player less.
“Well, I’ll say this,” Stotts said. “We were 29th in defense when Derrick was starting and we are 29th in defense now. Obviously, with Norman coming in, the three-guard lineup has been productive for us. We have to work through the rotation as far as how we manage the minutes going from there. But Norman at the three with Dame and CJ has been a positive for us, and we will continue with that. How that filters out for the other players? It’s still a work in progress.”
Many have wondered if it’s time for second-year forward Nassir Little to get a more expanded role. Little was effective Thursday against the Jazz, finishing with eight points and three rebounds in 10 minutes. Two things need to happen before Stotts gives Little a bigger role: One, Little has to stay healthy. He has been sidelined 12 games this season — five while recovering from COVID-19, four with a left knee sprain and recently three with a right thumb sprain. Two, Little needs to keep making it tough for Stotts to keep him off the court. Stotts has always leaned toward playing older, more experienced players, but he also wants to win, and playing your best players gives you the best chance at that. If Little continues to play like he did Thursday, his minutes will increase.
Problem: Jusuf Nurkic hasn’t been himself
It’s becoming more apparent the Blazers’ season may come down to what version of Nurkic will emerge for the home stretch and the playoffs.
Right now, Nurkic is understandably rusty and he is still having his playing time monitored by the Blazers’ health and performance staff, a restriction that will likely continue into next week after his right knee experienced swelling after playing in a back-to-back last weekend.
As a result of the rustiness, and the conditioning, Nurkic hasn’t been the dominant, game-changing center that has solidified the Blazers over the years. His minutes restrictions have also created more windows for the dreaded Anthony/Kanter pairing.
Solution: Patience with Nurkic
If there is something that gives the Blazers hope that they can turn around their fortunes, it’s this: According to cleaningtheglass.com, the starting lineup of Lillard, McCollum, Powell, Covington and Nurkic has an impressive defensive rating of 99.2 while playing together for 122 possessions, which is naturally a small sample size.
But if that unit can continue to play at that level defensively, and Nurkic gets healthy enough to extend his minutes to the high 20s, this team has a chance. But getting Nurkic there won’t happen overnight.
“We gotta give him time, and that takes time,” Lillard said. “We can’t expect him to come back from missing so much time and snap back into it. But I think it’s not just him. Bringing Norm in, CJ coming back after missing so much time … it takes time for things to click when you have so many moving parts.”
At the start of Thursday’s fourth quarter might have been the best we’ve seen Nurkic since his return. He looked more decisive and assertive on offense, and even displayed some touch on a nice running floater. All told, he went 3-for-3 and had three rebounds during seven minutes in the fourth.
Postscript
One observation to close. To my ears, the tone is changing around the Blazers. I heard it in Lillard’s postgame address Thursday. And I’ve heard it in Stotts’ answers to recent questions.
The pressure to produce this season is becoming palpable. Lillard feels it, and Stotts knows it. If the Blazers don’t make it out of the first round of the playoffs, it would be hard to imagine things remaining the same coming into next season. Chair Jody Allen has endorsed too much spending, and been more than patient, with little to show in return.
I think that pressure why Lillard issued somewhat of a challenge to his teammates, telling them to look in the mirror. And I think Stotts has become more decisive, saying things like “I’m going to play my best players” when asked about starting the three-guard lineup. It feels like he has adopted the idea that if he is going to go down, he’s going to go down his way.
There is, of course, time to right the ship. But time is ticking, and more good teams are on the horizon. Judging from this lost week, which featured a 17-point loss to the Clippers and an 18-point loss to the Jazz, the Blazers have work to do.
“The lesson right now is we played two of the top three teams in the West, and we didn’t play well,” Stotts said. “So, we are not where we need to be if we want to compete with them, and throw Phoenix in there. So there’s obviously a gap, and we need to close the gap between now and the playoffs. And it’s going to be a challenge. But it’s part of what we have to do.”
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