Lillard Wants Out?

[Natebishop3]

Trading away the best player on your team and the best player in the trade in order to "fill holes" on your existing team is a terrible strategy for success. Typically, teams in the NBA win because they have 2 of the best 3 players on the court, not because they had decent talent spread across multiple positions.

The "trade your best player in order to fill holes" would be like the Spurs trading Duncan because they don't have a solid backup PG and PF (or center, depending on which you consider Duncan), and trading Duncan would fill those holes.

When you have a player that is consistently one of the top 2 players on the court, you don't trade him to try to "fill holes".

The funny thing is, you can't completely ignore #1 and go straight to #2 because they're connected.

 

[RR7]

The funny thing is, you can't completely ignore #1 and go straight to #2 because they're connected.

That's the big issue, is it then becomes like all of the religion threads in OT. You operate as if #1 is fact(or at least Brian does), so there's not really a point in discussing what is best, or different options.

 

[blazerboy30]

The funny thing is, you can't completely ignore #1 and go straight to #2 because they're connected.

It's not really that funny.

But, you're right...IF the GM knew that LMA was certainly going to leave, it changes the analysis.

However, $16M in cap space to try to bring in a player that will consistently be the top 2 on the court could still be better than a "filling holes with decent players using that cap space" strategy.

 

[blazerboy30]

That's the big issue, is it then becomes like all of the religion threads in OT. You operate as if #1 is fact(or at least Brian does), so there's not really a point in discussing what is best, or different options.

Agreed. The notion that people are 100% sure that LMA is leaving immediately shows that there is not a reasonable, logical discussion taking place. Unless one of those posters that is 100% sure is either LMA or Olshey.

 

[BrianFromWA]

LOL. But you're 100% sure that LMA is staying. Or, worse, you don't think that, but don't care to mitigate it.

 

[RR7]

LOL. But you're 100% sure that LMA is staying. Or, worse, you don't think that, but don't care to mitigate it.

Not sure if you're referring to me or blazerboy. I'm not 100% sure. I'm sure that Olshey has a better handle on it. I am aware of the possibility of him leaving. But me operating as if it was 100% fact he was staying and signing an extension would be the same as what you do with him 100% leaving, no doubt in your mind. Discussion goes nowhere if possibility does not exist outside of that.

 

[Natebishop3]

Agreed. The notion that people are 100% sure that LMA is leaving immediately shows that there is not a reasonable, logical discussion taking place. Unless one of those posters that is 100% sure is either LMA or Olshey.

It's an opinion.... you know.... like one of those things people post on an internet forum.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Sure it does. Your point in one of the bajillion threads that we've had about this that you do everything LMA wants this summer, see where it goes and then trade him next summer is a discussion point. I think I've answered that based on a) much high probability of lower return and b) a high probability of losing the draft pick while not meeting LMA's stated demands of making the 2nd round that I don't think that's wise, but it's at least a plan.

If it "adds to discussion", I'm willing to say that there's a 92% chance that he leaves, based on actual data. Maybe his mother tells him to stay in Portland, or else. Maybe Victor Claver turns into Lebron James and Joel Freeland become Shaq-like in the post. Now let's discuss what possible good can come from just waiting for him to a) announce his trade demand or b) walk for nothing--one of which 92% of the All-Stars reaching UFA since the 2005 CBA was ratified have done.

My memory might not be correct on this, but I feel that NO ONE who's been sniping attacks in these threads has a) refuted any of the facts/stats that I post for you, even after I answer the mocking by posting them (like, say, % of all-stars that stay in UFA or # of LMA's jump shots or the percentage he shoots); b) come up with another possibility for future assets if we don't trade one of the Core Four (to recap: #10 & our 2nds this year, 11M in cap space this year, MLE next year) until LMA walks; or c) how you plan on using those only assets only (and intrinsic growth) to make LMA's stated "demand" of the 2nd round. I've read that "Lillard needs to become Roy-level". I like Lillard, but if he's a 2nd-Team All-NBA next year then we'll be in the playoffs whether Thompson or LMA is our PF. I've read that "we can trade for disgruntled All-Stars". Yet after pressing, it comes out that in that plan we only get disgruntled All-Stars by trading two or more of our starters and potentially draft picks (which can't be traded until at least 2016).

I'm happy to have discussions about the path forward. But I would submit that I've probably thought and written more about this topic than just about anyone (whether you think it's garbage or not), and have already tried to think through many of the ideas that are being tossed out willy-nilly as reasons to not even discuss trading LMA. If one made even a modicum of sense, I've said so. Unfortunately, most don't because of the hand the team's been dealt.

 

[RR7]

You list all stars leaving like Michael Redd when he was old and broken, Glbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur, etc. Sorry, I asked for the list, you provided it. I don't see much of anyone on the list you provided being in a similar situation to Aldridge. So you can say 92% leave if you want a nice number to put on your certainty. But those situations are far from similar, and it doesn't help your argument at all.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Wow. It doesn't help my argument at all? In that case, maybe I'll substitute what you originally asked for and start putting in players who aren't quite all-stars, but have leverage to make max-level deals. Josh Smith and Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap types. But you're probably not going to like those stats, either.

3 players in the last decade have been All-Stars and gone to UFA and re-signed with their team. Three. One of them is Jameer Nelson, and he wasn't close to a max player. Alternatively, if you think that LMA is Dwayne Wade and bringing in the best player in the league to play alongside him then I grant we should not trade LMA. But I don't think that's the case, either. Joe Johnson could be the peg you want to hang your hat on on this--a player who no one thought should make the max but his team, and they overpaid by a bundle to overwhelm him to stay (and ended up trading out of his ludicrous contract a year later). If you think LMA is Joe Johnson, then ok.

So of just about any "max-ish level" player I can think of since the 2005 CBA was ratified has either demanded a trade or left his team for nothing. Except Wade and Joe Johnson. That blows my 92% completely to hell.

 

[blazerboy30]

LOL. But you're 100% sure that LMA is staying.

Oh come on. That is completely dishonest. Link to where I said that.

Let's have a reasonable discussion.

Or, worse, you don't think that, but don't care to mitigate it.

It is silly to try to hedge (mitigate a loss) a position when one has no idea of the likelyhood of something happening.

 

[blazerboy30]

Not sure if you're referring to me or blazerboy. I'm not 100% sure. I'm sure that Olshey has a better handle on it. I am aware of the possibility of him leaving. But me operating as if it was 100% fact he was staying and signing an extension would be the same as what you do with him 100% leaving, no doubt in your mind. Discussion goes nowhere if possibility does not exist outside of that.

This.

 

[blazerboy30]

It's an opinion.... you know.... like one of those things people post on an internet forum.

100% sure == "opinion"?

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

 

[RR7]

It doesn't blow it to hell. It just shows it as a unique situation, instead of one that follows in line with Mehmet Okur and Michael Redd. I'd say Joe Johnson might be similar. But my point was there isn't a wide trend of people like him, in similar situations. You can use Al Jefferson and Josh Smith if you like. It all comes down to whether their original teams want them back. Seems like with Al, the answer is no. If that's the case, adn we DO want Aldridge back, then, again, it's different, no?

 

[BrianFromWA]

The or was a pretty big part of the statement. As in, you are a) or b). I believe you if you say you're not a). And you just confirmed that you're b). So what is there to discuss?

It's silly to hedge, so you're going to play Chicken Little. It's a valid position, but I have been writing a lot of posts why I disagree. And instead of refutation, I get emotion. That's why dampens "reasonable discussion". Please, attempt to invalidate one of the myriad points I've brought up. I'm BEGGING you to. But so far, there's been precious little "reasonable discussion" of that. There has been hyperbole, strawmen, ad hominem attacks, misrepresentation of my position, and more--but very little argument put forth by people of your viewpoints.

 

[RR7]

I've put forth plenty, but you choose to taake the overly pessimistic stance on any option of improving the team with Aldridge, and the overly optimistic one of trading him.

 

[BrianFromWA]

It doesn't blow it to hell. It just shows it as a unique situation, instead of one that follows in line with Mehmet Okur and Michael Redd. I'd say Joe Johnson might be similar. But my point was there isn't a wide trend of people like him, in similar situations. You can use Al Jefferson and Josh Smith if you like. It all comes down to whether their original teams want them back. Seems like with Al, the answer is no. If that's the case, adn we DO want Aldridge back, then, again, it's different, no?

See, I still say no. Because there have been plenty of people (just in the last few years) in the trend he's in right now. Where, with 2 years or less left before they become UFA's, they either have not made their trade demand public to anyone but their GM, or they've placated the media and fanbase with whatever non-binding and non-committal statements they wish. LeBron. Wade. Bosh. Melo. Deron. CP3. Elton Brand. Baron Davis. Amare. Howard.

Now, if this was a Dirk situation, where he kept signing extensions and was vocal about staying in Dallas, then you'd be on to something. But I don't see that at all with LMA.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I've put forth plenty, but you choose to taake the overly pessimistic stance on any option of improving the team with Aldridge, and the overly optimistic one of trading him.

you keep saying this, but not WHY you think it's "overly pessimistic". Please tell me how, other than the multiply-aforementioned #10 pick, 11M in cap space and MLE next year that you plan on keeping the Core Four and making the second round. Or if you want to go down the "disgruntled ALl-star trade" route, how LMA, Lillard, your disgruntled all-star and our 7th-12th man rotation players will make the second round. Since some combination of Batum, Matthews, #10 and/or Leonard will be gone in order to get said disgruntled all-star.

The mistake you detractors seem to keep making is that this is an emotional "Brian hates LMA" monologue. It's quite the opposite. It's a "we don't have the assets to do what LMA has demanded with any sort of probability at all." That's not LMA's fault, that's not even Olshey's fault. It's not your fault. But one of us has done a bunch of thinking about how to attempt to make a championship contending team in the next half-decade, and no one has yet to come up with a plausible idea of how to meet all of LMA's demands (big defensive C and 2nd round of playoffs) with what we have. If he re-signs with the team, then there's more than just 2 years to be able to build around him and there's time and future assets to work with. But he hasn't, and he's not said anything about doing so--which means that a reasonably strategic thinker might want to maximize value toward achieving the goal knowing that there's very little chance that his demands are met. He's not 2009 Dirk, or even 2008 Joe Johnson--he's in the same boat as the Lebrons and Boshes and Derons and Melos and Brands and Barons and the like who kept saying the "right thing" up until they demanded a trade and killed their team's trade leverage or just walked away from nothing.

He doesn't owe Portland anything. He's given 7 good years (9 at end of contract) and can do whatever he wants to do. I don't know how anyone is convinced that it's even likely that he re-signs here, much less so certain that you don't need to think about what happens if he doesn't want to.

 

[blazerboy30]

The or was a pretty big part of the statement. As in, you are a) or b). I believe you if you say you're not a). And you just confirmed that you're b). So what is there to discuss?

It's silly to hedge, so you're going to play Chicken Little.

What in the world are you talking about? The person claiming they are "100% sure LMA is leaving so we should trade him" is telling those who admit to not knowing the probability "chicken little"?

What world are you living in?

It's a valid position, but I have been writing a lot of posts why I disagree. And instead of refutation, I get emotion. That's why dampens "reasonable discussion". Please, attempt to invalidate one of the myriad points I've brought up. I'm BEGGING you to. But so far, there's been precious little "reasonable discussion" of that. There has been hyperbole, strawmen, ad hominem attacks, misrepresentation of my position, and more--but very little argument put forth by people of your viewpoints.

I don't know why you're so emotional about this.

You keep denying it when somebody points out why your "myriad of points" are not correct, and then claim that nobody can refute your claims.

Start with this: your "analysis" on UFAs that left there team is just flat-out invalid, yet you keep going back to it. It is a very flawed analysis, and you keep telling people that you're BEGGING them to invalidate your point. It's actually kind of bizarre.

 

[blue9]

Something that also needs to be taken into consideration - especially by those who think we'll retain LMA after his current contract is up - is how much his new contract will cost. I'm not sure what's allowed, but I'm guessing it's probably somewhere around an $18M starting salary? I have a very hard time seeing us agreeing to pay LMA that much money. So, even if he wants to stay, I think there's probably a very good chance that we don't want to pay the salary that he'd command.

 

[magnifier661]

Something that also needs to be taken into consideration - especially by those who think we'll retain LMA after his current contract is up - is how much his new contract will cost. I'm not sure what's allowed, but I'm guessing it's probably somewhere around an $18M starting salary? I have a very hard time seeing us agreeing to pay LMA that much money. So, even if he wants to stay, I think there's probably a very good chance that we don't want to pay the salary that he'd command.

I just don't see 18 mil being the norm for players anymore, unless they are the likes of LBJ type superstars. 25% of the cap is 14.5 mil. I think the most we will see for "all-star caliber" players are around 16 mil; while the super stars get around 18-20 mil.

 

[BrianFromWA]

LMA will qualify (based as a 9yr veteran)for the starting salary of 30% of cap or about 17.5M, whichever is less, and also able to be 105% of his previous (15.756M). So the MINIMUM max he can start at is 16.54M. The maximum max is probably starting at 17.5.

 

[magnifier661]

LMA will qualify (based as a 9yr veteran)for the starting salary of 30% of cap or about 17.5M, whichever is less, and also able to be 105% of his previous (15.756M). So the MINIMUM max he can start at is 16.54M. The maximum max is probably starting at 17.5.

I just don't see him getting max though. I love him to death; but he isn't "max player" salary potential. If he stays in Portland; he will still only be the #2 option. I think 16 mil is about as "Max" as he's gonna get. At least in this new CBA.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Oops wrong thread