LMA Signed Prematurely - Overpaid?

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ABM

ABM

Happily Married In Music City, USA!
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Personally, I don't think so. However, this guy questioned the move....

While the salary cap actually fell $1 million dollars from last season to this one, the expectation is that it will drop eve further this upcoming summer. The number currently sits at $57.7 million but, as Mark Heisler of the Chicago Tribune points out, could drop to as low as $50.4 million for next season. That means all those teams that have been stockpiling cap space to make a splash this summer may have to think twice about spending heavily, especially if they've got $7+ million less to spend than they thought they did.

One big question that may come around is whether the Toronto Raptors and Portland Trail Blazers did the right thing by extending Andrea Bargnani and LaMarcus Aldridge before it was necessary, and especially before their teams knew what the cap would look like for 2010-2011. Both players have been rewarded with eight-figure annual salaries for five years (starting next season) which, in this economic climate, might very well be overpaying.

Even more frustrating for other players in that draft class is how those numbers are being said to have set the bar for what un-extended guys like Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay, and Rajon Rondo are expecting for their own deals. Will it be possible for the Bulls, Grizzlies and Celtics to offer them what the open market has set for members of their draft class? Does this mean long, drawn-out negotiations for these guys down the road as player, agent, and team figure out how to meet in the middle?

And what happens to a team like the New York Knicks, who have dumped almost every bad salary they could and suffered for a couple seasons in anticipation of this offseason? If they can move Jared Jeffries or Eddy Curry, it's possible that they could have enough to offer two max contracts, but that all changes if the cap drops so drastically.

The cap dropping isn't news; we've known about this possibility for quite some time. What stands out is that it's dropping so drastically in a year when loads of worthwhile free agents hit the market. Compared to the last few years, when average players have often been overpaid because teams just didn't know what to do with their cap space, it seems tragic to have a legit crop of worthwhile players potentially go underpaid.......
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Maybe he will play better if he thinks he is over paid! He doesn't seem like the type of guy that would coast after getting his money. I think he wants to be the best PF in the game.
 
Strawman. Other than perhaps Rondo, none of those other guys deserve to be paid in the same ballpark as Aldridge. I mean, come on, Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas? Where's Adam Morrison? Seriously, if the Bulls big decision is to pay Tyrus Thomas $65 million (or even $50 million) or let him walk, I think that's a pretty easy decision.

BNM
 
Ahahahahahaha if Tyrus Thomas or his agent think he's in LMA's league that's pretty laughable (as seen by the ahahahahahahaha at the start of my sentence). As BNM said Rondo is the only one left in the draft class affected by LMA's contract - none of the others come close, and Rudy Gay was never going to get an extension from the Grizzlies regardless of who else received one.
 
haha. It's our good ol' buddy Joel Brigham again who knows shit about basketball.
 
Paul won't have his health forever. I'm glad he got LMA locked up. I do agree locking him up before it was really necessary may be a bad idea, but what would happen if he had a really good season and some team threw out a ridiculous contract offer to Aldridge, knowing that we'd be forced to match (kind of like we tried to do with Milsap). There's no way we would have not matched whatever offer was given to Lamarcus. Not to mention that Lamarcus may feel insulted to let the Blazers let the league set his value. Yeah it's business, but it's still insulting.
 
Locking up Roy and Aldridge long term was definitely the right thing to do this off season. They, along with Oden, are the cornerstones of the team and having all three locked up will guarantee a long window of championship contention.

Aldridge may not be the prototypical low post power forward, but that's what makes him an ideal complimentary player to Greg Oden. People who don't follow the team (and don't even know that Brandon Roy is a shooting guard), probably overlook this fact. We had a low post scoring, rebounding PF named Zach Randolph who was traded the day we drafted Oden for exactly this reason. Zach was traded to let LaMarcus move into the starting PF spot and develop alongside Oden. Oden's surgery delayed the pair developing together, but Aldridge has definitely blossomed over the last two seasons into exactly the kind of player we need beside Oden. The plan was sound on draft day 2007, and still is. Now that Oden is showing he can be the low post power player and rebounder we thought he could be, it makes more sense than ever to lock up Aldrige long term to play beside him on our front court for the next decade.

BNM
 
Blazer_Hippie said:
This was not a case of Premature Execution.
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Agreed. The timing was perfect and part of the long term plan. He has shown improvement each of his three seasons in the league. No reason that trend won't continue for several more years as he is still about 5 years away from his prime. Aldridge is a hard worker, talented and has great length for a power forward. He presents match-up problems for most other power forwards. And, his length keeps him from getting abused on the low blocks by shorter, stronger players.

He has been part of our long term plans since his rookie season. Not locking him up when you have the chance would have been risky. The Blazers want him here, and he wants to be here. I'm glad they both got what they wanted.

BNM
 
For LMA to be overpaid, we need to compare what contract he could have likely signed in free agency and what else it could have cost us. With the scarcity of big men, it is not unconceivable for LMA to have gotten a max deal without being a true franchise player. There are alot of teams that will have cap space next year as well.

We could match any offer, but I think it is worth not having the headache or running the risk of LMA accepting the qualifying offer. Ask the Chicago fans how much they enjoyed the Ben Gordon situation over the past couple of years. I am glad to see him locked up.
 
Boob-No-More said:
Aldridge may not be the prototypical low post power forward, but that's what makes him an ideal complimentary player to Greg Oden.
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Agreed. Two classic low-post players don't work well together. You really can't post up on the weak side...there's no use. Only one player can post up on the strong side. Oden is clearly best suited to be a low-post player. He may knock down a jumper once in a while, but most of his time on offense should be establishing position on the block.

The best power forward complement to that is a high post power forward...a power forward who can shoot mid-range jumpers, take other big men off the dribble if they come out on him and pass the ball a little. Essentially a perfect fit for Aldridge's skillset.

Oden and Aldridge have a chance to be something special, mostly due to their talent but also because their talents complement each other so well. Very little overlap and forces defenses to make hard choices.

And then there's that Roy guy, whom defenses might want to pay some attention to...
 
Premature Contractulation?

I hate when that a happens...
 
BlazersBlood said:
Paul won't have his health forever. I'm glad he got LMA locked up. I do agree locking him up before it was really necessary may be a bad idea, but what would happen if he had a really good season and some team threw out a ridiculous contract offer to Aldridge, knowing that we'd be forced to match (kind of like we tried to do with Milsap). There's no way we would have not matched whatever offer was given to Lamarcus.
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Okay.

Do an exercise.

Find out what the estimated salary cap is for next summer.

Assume that LaMarcus attracts a MAX free agent salary offer from one of the teams with MAX cap room (despite the best unrestricted free agent class in history - we will assume one of these teams wants to make LaMarcus this offer for some reason that makes no real sense now, but whatever).

Now, figure out what is the absolute richest contract offer that could be offered to LaMarcus?

How does that compare to what LaMarcus got now?
 
When you look at his numbers (18/8) they really don't jump out at you.

Put him in a faster tempo'd offense and his numbers would look a lot better. When you can run the court like LMA can you need to run. Nate refuses. He's being used wrong.
 
Masbee said:
Okay.

Do an exercise.

Find out what the estimated salary cap is for next summer.

Assume that LaMarcus attracts a MAX free agent salary offer from one of the teams with MAX cap room (despite the best unrestricted free agent class in history - we will assume one of these teams wants to make LaMarcus this offer for some reason that makes no real sense now, but whatever).

Now, figure out what is the absolute richest contract offer that could be offered to LaMarcus?

How does that compare to what LaMarcus got now?
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I assume that exercise you are speaking about is exactly what took so long for the contract to get worked out. Compared to Roy, Lamarcus did not get the max. Was it maybe a little too rich? Perhaps. For Paul Allen is it better just to have a piece of mind knowing that he has the core of our team locked up for the prime of their careers? Hell yeah. It's not your money, so does it really matter? Ticket prices might go up a little, but the product on the floor will be better so it will be worth it.
 
BlazersBlood said:
I assume that exercise you are speaking about is exactly what took so long for the contract to get worked out. Compared to Roy, Lamarcus did not get the max. Was it maybe a little too rich? Perhaps. For Paul Allen is it better just to have a piece of mind knowing that he has the core of our team locked up for the prime of their careers? Hell yeah. It's not your money, so does it really matter? Ticket prices might go up a little, but the product on the floor will be better so it will be worth it.
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You didn't do the exercise.

So, you are opining with a lack of information.
 
Masbee said:
You didn't do the exercise.

So, you are opining with a lack of information.
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No I didn't. I'm not a cap geek. If you would be so kind to work out the numbers and then tell us how overpaid LMA is, it would be really nice of you. In fact, I think KP would appreciate it too, since nobody really knows where the cap will be at next year.

As of now, LMA was signed for less than the max, and we have the piece of mind knowing that he's locked up for the prime of his career and our window of opportunity will be open for a while. My original example was a poor one, but it sounded good when I heard it from somewhere else. I'm still unsure why you think it is such a big deal if LMA was overpaid by a million or two per season. We aren't going to be under the cap anymore and there is no way the luxury tax is gonna force Allen to move the team to Seattle after a few years in the tax. You are paranoid over nothing.
 
If the cap is 50.3M next year (projected minimum), and, say, the Knicks signed LMA to a max deal, it could only be worth 5/67.2M, w/a starting salary in 2010-11 of 11.59M. If the cap was 53.6M (projected maximum), the Knicks could sign LMA for 5/70.2M, w/a starting salary of 12.28M.
 
BrianFromWA said:
If the cap is 50.3M next year (projected minimum), and, say, the Knicks signed LMA to a max deal, it could only be worth 5/67.2M, w/a starting salary in 2010-11 of 11.59M. If the cap was 53.6M (projected maximum), the Knicks could sign LMA for 5/70.2M, w/a starting salary of 12.28M.
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Thanks! So we gave LMA the max? Good for him. I'm glad they have him signed. Why piss off your 2nd best player in hopes of saving a little here or there? All is good in Blazerville with our core.
 
I wanna add that I don't think spending this money on LMA is irresponsible in the same way it was to hand out that money to Darius. Lamarcus is the perfect role model for our team. He's a hard worker, he keeps clean off the court, and he's been a great teammate. He's everything you want in a player. Oh yeah, he's got talent too.
 
BlazersBlood said:
Thanks! So we gave LMA the max?
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No we didn't. Since we hold his Bird rights we could give him a longer contract and higher annual raises than anyone else. Basicaly, he got almost as much as anyone else could offer him next summer (based on the above cap projections), but not the absolute max we could have given him.

He's well paid, but I don't think he's overpaid (at least not grossly overpaid). As our second best player (at the time the contract was signed), he will be the second highest paid player on the team. Seems right to me.

The real question is - what will Oden's extension look like next year. If Oden had a break out season, he could potentially make more than LaMarcus. If not, he will probably be offered less. It all depends on how Oden plays this season. After missing a year, and then an injury and foul plagued rookie season, Oden has a lot to prove in terms of an extension. If he shows improvement, but doesn't have a total break out season, it may be in his best interest to pass on signing the extension and become an RFA in summer 2011. Big men in general tend to get overpaid as free agents. If Oden has two solid seasons, I'm sure someone will throw the max at him. He'll still only be 23 and not yet in his prime. Of course, if someone does off the max I'm sure the Blazers will match.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
No we didn't. Since we hold his Bird rights we could give him a longer contract and higher annual raises than anyone else. Basicaly, he got almost as much as anyone else could offer him next summer (based on the above cap projections), but not the absolute max we could have given him.

He's well paid, but I don't think he's overpaid (at least not grossly overpaid). As our second best player (at the time the contract was signed), he will be the second highest paid player on the team. Seems right to me.

The real question is - what will Oden's extension look like next year. If Oden had a break out season, he could potentially make more than LaMarcus. If not, he will probably be offered less. It all depends on how Oden plays this season. After missing a year, and then an injury and foul plagued rookie season, Oden has a lot to prove in terms of an extension. If he shows improvement, but doesn't have a total break out season, it may be in his best interest to pass on signing the extension and become an RFA in summer 2011. Big men in general tend to get overpaid as free agents. If Oden has two solid seasons, I'm sure someone will throw the max at him. He'll still only be 23 and not yet in his prime. Of course, if someone does off the max I'm sure the Blazers will match.

BNM
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I'm confused...what are we complaining about? :dunno:
 
BlazersBlood said:
I'm confused...what are we complaining about? :dunno:
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I'm personally not complaining about anything. Is that a requirement in this forum now - every post must contain a complaint? Sure seems that way, don't it?

I just answered your question: "So we gave LMA the max? " and added some comments on the relative value of Aldridge's contract and how Oden's extension situation might play out next year. No complaints - just random thoughts. It's all good as far as I'm concerned.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
I'm personally not complaining about anything. Is that a requirement in this forum now - every post must contain a complaint? Sure seems that way, don't it?

I just answered your question: "So we gave LMA the max? " and added some comments on the relative value of Aldridge's contract and how Oden's extension situation might play out next year. No complaints - just random thoughts. It's all good as far as I'm concerned.

BNM
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I know, it wasn't necessarily geared towards you, but you made a good point so I had to quote it.

And you know that if we wouldn't have signed him there would be plenty of people complaining about how we aren't taking care of our players and that Vulcan is the devil. I'm just glad that he's signed.
 
BlazersBlood said:
I know, it wasn't necessarily geared towards you, but you made a good point so I had to quote it.

And you know that if we wouldn't have signed him there would be plenty of people complaining about how we aren't taking care of our players and that Vulcan is the devil. I'm just glad that he's signed.
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Wer'e on the same page here. Even with the current state of the economy, I don't think Aldridge is overpaid relative to other players. From his same draft class, Andrea Bargnani signed a 5 year $50 million contract this summer. Look at Bargnani's performance vs. Aldridge over their first three years in the league:

Andrea Bargnani PER:
2006-07 = 12.8
2007-08 = 10.6
2008-09 = 14.6

LaMarcus Aldridge PER:
2006-07 = 17.1
2007-08 = 18.5
2008-09 = 19.1

Both players are the same age. Aldridge scores more, shoots a higher FG%, rebounds better and is a better defender. There really is no contest, Aldridge is just flat out a much better player and deserves to be paid more. If anyone was signed prematurely and overpaid, it was Bargnani, not Aldridge. Bargnani showed flashes of potential last March, but Aldridge has two solid seasons as a starter and is pushing into borderline all-star (PER = 20) territory. Bargnani is a horrible rebounder and has yet to prove he can be even an average NBA player over an entire season.

Another example of a player who plays a similar role to Aldridge (i.e. power forward who can score from the perimeter paired with a dominant low post center), is, of course, Rashard Lewis. In know the economy has changed in the two years since Orlando signed Lewis to a 6-year $112 million contract, but it hasn't changed THAT much. At the time Orlando signed Lewis, he was already 28 years old and had just had his best season. After a steady rise in performance, his PER peaked at 20.7 at age 27 (his last year in Seattle). By comparison, at age 23 Lewis (in his 5th NBA season) had a PER of 16.7 compared to Aldridge's 19.1. Lewis did not top Aldridge's 3rd year PER of 19.1 until his 7th season in the league at age 25. Starting at age 23, Lewis saw his PER increase five years in a row. Orlando signed him right AFTER he peaked. The Blazers signed Aldridge to a contract that should see him reach his peak level of performance during the final two years of his contract. So, Orlando gets 6 years of declining performance from Lewis for $112 million and Portland gets (in theory) five years of an improving Aldridge for $65 million. Aldridge definitely looks like a bargain by comparison.

Comparing their recent performance (last season). Aldridge has a considerably higher PER (19.1 vs. 16.8), scores more (18.1 PPG vs. 17.7) and rebounds better (7.5 RPG vs. 5.7 RPG). And, he's a better defender. Lewis is definitely overpaid, but once again Aldridge looks like a bargain - and Aldridge should continue to improve while Lewis continues to decline. And even though Lewis is grossly overpaid, he did help get Orlando to the finals last season. If Aldridge can do the same for the Blazers, nobody will care about his contract.

BNM
 
Aldridge is overpaid. He doesn't take charge at the end like a near-max player should. He doesn't get many rebounds. He's soft on defense.

They paid him for potential, not accomplishments. If he meets his potential, he'll earn the money, but he hasn't done it so far. If he turns out less than his potential, it will be remind us of the great promise Miles and Randolph showed when we gave them big contracgts.

As the article says, had Pritchard waited, he could have paid him less because the max will drop.

And by paying him so much, it takes away options to sign FAs in the future.
 
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