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You did, though. You "fully expect" the Wolves to be in the mix for a Top 4 seed. That's a prediction.

Based on point differential, do you also "fully expect" Portland to be in the mix for a Top 4 seed? If not, why?

Sure. I thought Portland looked like a 9-7th seed on paper after their moves this summer, now they look like they might be a 6-4th seed based on their better than expected play. In a similar vein I see the Wolves as a well coached team with good complimentary players and a stud with Kevin Love.
 
I think were giving minny the short end of the stick because of the rube posters. That roster is fairly good and they get another shooter back in budinger and have a cupcake schedule towards the end of December and into january. I can see them easily being 7-10 games above .500 at the end of January.

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Sure. I thought Portland looked like a 9-7th seed on paper after their moves this summer, now they look like they might be a 6-4th seed based on their better than expected play. In a similar vein I see the Wolves as a well coached team with good complimentary players and a stud with Kevin Love.

Sounds like Kevin Pelton's covering his own ass no matter what analysis. Has anything changed with the Blazers team since the summer? Or was your prediction flat out wrong?

Some of us thought the Blazers ceiling was higher than a 7th seed and we were mocked all offseason.
 
Sure. I thought Portland looked like a 9-7th seed on paper after their moves this summer, now they look like they might be a 6-4th seed based on their better than expected play. In a similar vein I see the Wolves as a well coached team with good complimentary players and a stud with Kevin Love.

We got a stud of our own. His name is Aldridge.
 
Who is proving this year he is a winner. Klove is a stats who're loser

It just bothers me how peeps downplay our team, then talk up a shit team like minny. I mean they can't even win on the road, have even a lower SOS, then warrant praise because they have a 1.5 less differential than us. Fucking boggles my mind.

But whatever man. Soon this team will prove all naysayers wrong
 
Sounds like Kevin Pelton's covering his own ass no matter what analysis. Has anything changed with the Blazers team since the summer? Or was your prediction flat out wrong?

Some of us thought the Blazers ceiling was higher than a 7th seed and we were mocked all offseason.
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Doubter tears, my yummy!
 
I can't figure Minnesota out. They started out really well, but have lost 4 of their last 5 and now sit at .500 (8-8).

Kevin Martin is playing way better than I thought he would for them. I haven't check lately, but his PER has been hovering around 21 and his shooting percentages have been excellent. And, SG has been a position of weakness for them forever. So, that should be a huge upgrade.

They are healthy and Love is once again putting up monster stats. Rubio still can't shoot for shit from 2-point range, but has made 12/28 3FG for .429 3FG%. Yet, there they sit at 8-8 having lost 4 of 5 and currently at 9th in the West. Granted, 3 of their last 4 losses have been to good teams, but they have also lost to WAS, DEN and CLE.

So, can anyone who follows them more closely provide some insight into why they are underachieving? In the past, it was injuries. What's the excuse this time?

BNM

I think it is their bench, they have no depth.

That and I think teams are on to Love and not giving him that 3 pt shot as readily. Love doesn't really have the ability to put the ball on the floor and drive (he does have a post game), so if you take away his 3 pt shot, you can limit him. Also he is a liability on defense . . . Love's impact on the court isn't what it was in the first 5 games (I know, simple analysis but don't really follow them closely)
 
I can't figure Minnesota out. They started out really well, but have lost 4 of their last 5 and now sit at .500 (8-8).

Kevin Martin is playing way better than I thought he would for them. I haven't check lately, but his PER has been hovering around 21 and his shooting percentages have been excellent. And, SG has been a position of weakness for them forever. So, that should be a huge upgrade.

They are healthy and Love is once again putting up monster stats. Rubio still can't shoot for shit from 2-point range, but has made 12/28 3FG for .429 3FG%. Yet, there they sit at 8-8 having lost 4 of 5 and currently at 9th in the West. Granted, 3 of their last 4 losses have been to good teams, but they have also lost to WAS, DEN and CLE.

So, can anyone who follows them more closely provide some insight into why they are underachieving? In the past, it was injuries. What's the excuse this time?

BNM

In short, shooting, defense, and the 3 ball are why Minnesota struggles despite what seems like a team ready to compete atop the West.

Check out Kevin Love's shot chart compared to LA's. Love is a 31% shooter from everywhere on the court combined, minus his shots within 5ft of the hoop, and his shots taken from behind the left, top arc. Add in his top/left arc shots, and he's still a 34% shooter from everywhere but 5ft from the rim. That's their best player? Add in that Love doesn't draw double teams, can't create his own shot with his inferior post game, and his poor defense with an inability to affect or block shots, and you've got a decent start as to why Minnesota is struggling. Love's monster stats are a product of him setting up shop underneath the basket, where he is quite adept at getting rebounds and making shots at the rim. In fact, 40% of his shots are within 5ft of the rim. If Minn has more shooters that allowed Love to get 50 or 60% of his shots down low, I have no doubt they would have greater success.

Rubio can create for others, but not for himself. This tends to cover for the lack of TWolves that can create their own shot, but also hurts the team because he is such a poor shooter himself. Martin is the only legitimate outside threat on the team. Compare that to Portland, who has Wes/Batum/Mo/Dame/Wright. Minn doesn't shoot the 3 well as a team, nor do they defend it well as a team. Just look at their game versus a Harden-less Houston team, who shot 17-31 (55%) versus their own paltry 8-23 (31%). You simply aren't going to win games that way.
 
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ToB and BF - thanks for the insights. I haven't watched Minnesota play recently. I noticed their hot start, and that Marin was playing really well, but wasn't aware that other than Martin, their 3FG% was so bad. When Bricky Rubio is your second best 3-point shooter, you're only going to go so far.

BNM
 
No I am debating your "means to why they will be a top 4 team", using the differential. And since that is skewed, it really doesn't tell the entire story. They are 2-6 on the road. They aren't even close to .500. That trend shows they won't even be a .500 ball club on the road. That also means the Point differential will change as well.

Point differential is likely the strongest indicator for play-off success, the other being road wins. ;)
 
Point differential is likely the strongest indicator for play-off success, the other being road wins. ;)

Interesting... One was sure that minny would be fighting for top 4 based on the differential, yet uncertain on us, having a +2 on minny in this same model. Another interesting find is the blazers are road warriors 6-1, while minny is 2-6; yet minny has a better shot at getting 4 than the Blazers.

Oh I forgot minny has a beast of a player. Wait?! Doesn't Portland have a beast PF too? I'm confused!
 
You're confused because the OP made a typo. Obviously, it's supposed to read "Noob Chat."

Interesting... One was sure that minny would be fighting for top 4 based on the differential, yet uncertain on us, having a +2 on minny in this same model. Another interesting find is the blazers are road warriors 6-1, while minny is 2-6; yet minny has a better shot at getting 4 than the Blazers.

Oh I forgot minny has a beast of a player. Wait?! Doesn't Portland have a beast PF too? I'm confused!
 
Knowledgable people like magnifier, natebishop, and myself all knew we were gonna be much improved after what Neil had added to the team. Mags and I had us as top 3 seed. Nate had us at 5 seed. The people who had us at 7th to as low a 11th (SI) simply haven't paid attention. We were a great starting line up last year. Better starting lineup than teams like Grizzlies and Warriors. We just didn't have the backups they had. Once we added Mo, Dorell, Robinson, and CJ, not to mention getting us an actual center with upside, it should've been obvious to all that we were going to be a major player in the conference.

As for the Wolves, they have a lot of good pieces but they aren't a top 4 seed. Love is a flawed "superstar.". He can't defend, he shoots too many threes, and he hasn't shown he can lead his team to a winning record.
 
Knowledgable people like magnifier, natebishop, and myself all knew we were gonna be much improved after what Neil had added to the team. Mags and I had us as top 3 seed. Nate had us at 5 seed. The people who had us at 7th to as low a 11th (SI) simply haven't paid attention. We were a great starting line up last year. Better starting lineup than teams like Grizzlies and Warriors. We just didn't have the backups they had. Once we added Mo, Dorell, Robinson, and CJ, not to mention getting us an actual center with upside, it should've been obvious to all that we were going to be a major player in the conference.

As for the Wolves, they have a lot of good pieces but they aren't a top 4 seed. Love is a flawed "superstar.". He can't defend, he shoots too many threes, and he hasn't shown he can lead his team to a winning record.

Hear hear!

Brian also had us top too
 
Love's defense and Rubio's shooting will prevent this team from going far. A first-round and out team, like the KG era.

Kevin's defense is blatantly horrid -- don't contest, box out and hope for a miss, pad rebound stats.

Lawson would've turned that team into a real threat. Oops.

Trading Burke and passing on CJ will haunt that team like Lawson.
 
Sounds like Kevin Pelton's covering his own ass no matter what analysis. Has anything changed with the Blazers team since the summer? Or was your prediction flat out wrong?

Some of us thought the Blazers ceiling was higher than a 7th seed and we were mocked all offseason.

Covering my own ass? No, I think the Blazers are better than I predicted, so I was just plain wrong.

And while I'm sure I felt that anything higher than a 7th seed was probably too high, I don't recall mocking anybody for it (and no, telling people that I think they are wrong is not "mocking them").
 
Covering my own ass? No, I think the Blazers are better than I predicted, so I was just plain wrong.

And while I'm sure I felt that anything higher than a 7th seed was probably too high, I don't recall mocking anybody for it (and no, telling people that I think they are wrong is not "mocking them").

I apologize. I was out of line... I was in a mood yesterday.
 
Dumb thread. The Wolves have only won 2 games this year against teams above .500, and they've lost to the Cavs, Nuggets and Wizards, below .500 teams. The difference in our strength of schedule right now is only 2%. And our beating those teams contributes to their lower SOS.

We beat the Bulls (while they had Rose), won in Denver, in Golden State, Beat San Antoni, so I'd say we have more impressive wins on our resume then they.
 
Dumb thread. The Wolves have only won 2 games this year against teams above .500, and they've lost to the Cavs, Nuggets and Wizards, below .500 teams. The difference in our strength of schedule right now is only 2%. And our beating those teams contributes to their lower SOS.

We beat the Bulls (while they had Rose), won in Denver, in Golden State, Beat San Antoni, so I'd say we have more impressive wins on our resume then they.

Well all that + 13-2 >>>>>>>> 8-8.

BNM
 
Dumb thread. The Wolves have only won 2 games this year against teams above .500, and they've lost to the Cavs, Nuggets and Wizards, below .500 teams. The difference in our strength of schedule right now is only 2%. And our beating those teams contributes to their lower SOS.

We beat the Bulls (while they had Rose), won in Denver, in Golden State, Beat San Antoni, so I'd say we have more impressive wins on our resume then they.

Well all that + 13-2 >>>>>>>> 8-8.

BNM
 

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