Lottery watch

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Scalma said:
I think we may draft high enough to get our hands on Tatum if Olshey blows this baby up here in the next week.
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Or even Josh Jackson/Jonathan Isaac. If you are 5th or 6th in lottery prediction you actually have a great chance to make top 3. It's rare that top 3 consists of only teams who were tipped to make top 3, I think.

Tanking is the way from here. Getting blown out by Warriors and swept in 4 is no way to go.
 
Weird. I didn't see this thread when I made my thread. I'm glad I'm not the only one who is intrigued by Williams.
 
Justin Patton is still my pick unless we sneak into the top 5-6. Only big I've seen in this class that has a reasonable chance to become a long-term starter. He's not NBA ready from a strength / conditioning respect, but there is just so much to work with with this kid.

Josh Jackson would probably be the guy I'd be most excited to luck into.
 
If we get a top 5 pick, I'd be very scared to trade it. I'd hate to regret turning down a future star.
 
It will be interesting to see if this can either win or lose on a more consistent level. If Dame can heal, and get out of the funk he is in, despite Neil's best efforts, we may land low lottery, or first round fodder.
 
Mediocre Man said:
It will be interesting to see if this can either win or lose on a more consistent level. If Dame can heal, and get out of the funk he is in, despite Neil's best efforts, we may land low lottery, or first round fodder.
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Only 26 games left. A lot of them against teams with poor record or home games, so I would not be surprised to go slightly above .500 from here. We are 23-33 now, even if we go 14-12 now it's going to leave us 37-45 - should be good enough for 10th place in lottery but not much more. If we go 10-16 and end 33-49 it'll get us closer to 7th/8th. A lot of teams who have worse record than us right now will be trying to get into playoffs: Miami and Dallas in particular but also New Orleans and Minnesota (maybe New York). The only tanking ones will be Lakers, Phoenix and obviously not taking but too crap to be anything but the worst team in the league, Brooklyn Nets.
 
The difficulty in getting a better pick in the Lottery at this point is not that Portland will continue to loss it's fair share of game...but rather that the teams behind them have to win 2-3 more games over the next 26. They are playing so poorly that getting that many wins while Portland gets even less than that seems unlikely. Portland wouldn't have to continue just losing most of their games, they would have to go on a serious losing streak like they did the year before they drafted CJ.
 
TBpup said:
The difficulty in getting a better pick in the Lottery at this point is not that Portland will continue to loss it's fair share of game...but rather that the teams behind them have to win 2-3 more games over the next 26. They are playing so poorly that getting that many wins while Portland gets even less than that seems unlikely. Portland wouldn't have to continue just losing most of their games, they would have to go on a serious losing streak like they did the year before they drafted CJ.
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So, it's unrealistic to catch teams ahead for better seeding because those teams won't lose enough and it's unrealistic to catch teams behind for better draft slot because those teams won't win enough.

Well, maybe they should just quit then!

Oh. That might actually help. Yeah, do that, guys.
 
The guy I see would be good for us is Tatum. But right there few that could fall to us between 10-15.
 
Updated through the All-Star break

Philadelphia 76'ers::::: 21-35... .375
Minnesota T'wolves::: 22-35.... .386 - 0.5 games back from #5
Dallas Mavericks::::::: 22-34.... .393 - 1.0 games back
New Orleans Pelicans: 23-34... .404 - 1.5 games back
New York Knicks ::::::: 23-34... .404 - 1.5 games back
Trail Blazers::::::::::: 23-33... .411 - 2.0 games back
Sacramento Kings:::::: 24-33... .421 - 2.5 games back
Charlotte Hornets:::::: 24-32... .429 - 3.0 games back
Miami Heat::::::::::::::: 25-32... .439 - 3.5 games back

Portland currently still at #10 but just a minuscule 2 games from the #5 spot. The problem is, those teams below (above) them aren't going to win many games so it will be tough improve ones Lottery position. I don't think they get all the way to #5 or #7 but could climb as high as #7.

Dallas would like to make the Playoffs as Dirk just doesn't have much time left.
New Orleans plays decently when they are healthy.
New York may get Carmelo wanting to prove over a stretch run that he isn't a team cancer.

Portland has 3 road games right after the All-Star break that could put them right in the #7 spot. Then it will be a matter for management to decide if they want to stay there or win a few games that will put them right back in the #10/11 slot.
 
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The season is now at a point where it's about growth, not wins. Like last night, I wasn't upset that they lost...in fact I embraced it. Although I have tempered expectations of Nurkic (tho his points weren't a Jake Laymen "who the hell is this guy shooting 3's, and why should I guard him?").

Because of the 3 draft picks, and a decent to good chance at a serviceable player...bring on the lotto threads!
 
tester551 said:
Where is D69 these days? I'd like to hear who else he's recommending
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He has been swamped with a new position but also, I think he got tired of people telling him he was clueless and stupid when 10 years of his Draft recommendations could hardly have been more correct than if he'd had a crystal ball.

We stay in touch and he shares some of his research. Whether the Blazers host, or I have a Draft party of my own, he always shows up to that and shares a lot of great info before it begins. I hope the 'regulars' can make it and we usually have room for one or two more. With 3 picks as of now, it should be fun. @Charcoal Filtered, Billy, Rich, Mika, Todd, Jenn...hope we can all get together.
 
With so many people posting here, I tend to forget who is who...but who is d69 and was I one of the people who said he was stupid for his recommendations?
 
He was a long time poster on another forum, then was asked to be the Grand Poobah of another site (kind of like what Denny is here). He doesn't come on here so unless you @julius were on those site, I doubt it was you. It was just a general purveyance of no matter what he said, no matter his background, history or sources, people were often giving him crap that really had no idea what they were talking about. After a while, he just stopped. Don't blame him.
 
TBpup said:
He has been swamped with a new position but also, I think he got tired of people telling him he was clueless and stupid when 10 years of his Draft recommendations could hardly have been more correct than if he'd had a crystal ball.

We stay in touch and he shares some of his research. Whether the Blazers host, or I have a Draft party of my own, he always shows up to that and shares a lot of great info before it begins. I hope the 'regulars' can make it and we usually have room for one or two more. With 3 picks as of now, it should be fun. @Charcoal Filtered, Billy, Rich, Mika, Todd, Jenn...hope we can all get together.
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I'd love to join a draft party, but it's kind of hard for us out-of-towners....
 
If we move into top 6/7, it's a chance to draft a potentially great small forward. Jackson will go earlier but Isaac and Tatum could still be available. Then Memphis pick at 19/20 (possible) will get us a decent power forward I hope. If we end up around 10 it's also time to get a power forward - plenty will be available right there: Williams, Markkanen, Giles and Adebayo to name a few.

Cleveland pick I hope we will use on a backcourt player or a back up center (Jeanne? Bryant?). Hard to follow all those young players when you are in Europe.
 
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TBpup said:
He was a long time poster on another forum, then was asked to be the Grand Poobah of another site (kind of like what Denny is here). He doesn't come on here so unless you @julius were on those site, I doubt it was you. It was just a general purveyance of no matter what he said, no matter his background, history or sources, people were often giving him crap that really had no idea what they were talking about. After a while, he just stopped. Don't blame him.
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Weird. That doesn't sound like internet forums at all. :dunno:
 
Schilly said:
If you think about it the Blazers were built to score in the lottery last season and had a weird alignment of the planets... essentially this is the same team just a year behind schedule in the rebuild process.
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Or, we got so far ahead of schedule last year, we are just now back on track ,but traded last years lottery for playoff experience. Nobody in last year's draft would have been a difference maker on this years team. Not evne Simmons cause, well you know. He hasn't played.
 
Orion Bailey said:
Or, we got so far ahead of schedule last year, we are just now back on track ,but traded last years lottery for playoff experience. Nobody in last year's draft would have been a difference maker on this years team. Not evne Simmons cause, well you know. He hasn't played.
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So far, Tim Quarterman > than college teammate Ben Simmons.
 
TBpup said:
So far, Tim Quarterman > than college teammate Ben Simmons.
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And where is Timmy? lol. Exactly.
Last year, if there was a season to not be concerned about the draft and get our young guys playoff experience, last year was the year.
Man there have been some bad draft years, but last years is just a wowser of nothingness.
 
Kings could be a good team to trade up to. They need multiple young, talented players.

If 13 and 28 got 8 last year, what does 10 and 28 get? Maybe 6?
 
TBpup said:
Going into the game with ATL, the Blazers were in the #11 spot in the Lottery. With the loss last night they moved into a tie for #10 and with Sacramento's win over the Lakers, they climb to #9 without doing a thing.

Whether they use that pick, leverage it in a trade or consolidate it with another pick/asset to move up, that pick is getting more valuable by the night.

Here is the current race with teams all within 2 games of the Blazers:

Philadelphia 76'ers::::: 21-34... .382
New Orleans Pelicans: 22-34... .393
Dallas Mavericks::::::: 22-33.... .400
New York Knicks ::::::: 23-33... .411
Trail Blazers::::::::::: 23-32... .418
Sacramento Kings:::::: 24-32... .429
Miami Heat::::::::::::::: 24-32... .429
Charlotte Hornets::::::: 24-31.... .436

Tough to root for key losses but at this point, I have much more anticipation to what the value of a better pick can bring than the drubbing we would get at the hands of the Warriors....or perhaps even worse, winning just enough games to be around #12-14 in the Lottery.
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#4 Orlando: 22-37... .367 (2.5gb)
#5 Philadelphia: 22-36... .379 (2gb)
#6 New Orleans: 23-37... .383 (2gb)
#7 Minnesota: 23-36... .390 (1.5gb)
#8 Dallas: 25-35... .397 (1gb)
#9 New York: 24-35... .407 (0.5gb)
#10 Trail Blazers: 24-34... .414 (0.0)
#11 Sacramento: 25-34... .424 (0.5ga)
#12 Charlotte: 25-34... ..424 (0.5ga)
#13 Milwaukee: 26-31... .456 (2.5ga)
#14 Miami: 27-32... .458 (2.5ga)
 
We're so close to a top 5 pick but I just don't see us keeping up with the Timberpups and Sixers, they're masters at tanking.
 
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