Lowe podcast with Woj

[hoopsjock]

We expect better with the 3rd highest paid roster in the conference (slated to be 5th highest in the league) next year. This isn't some underdog team.

Other than being kind of embarrassing, what does it really matter what the payroll is?

Let's say they never signed Turner. The numbers would look much better but they'd still be over the cap so it's not like it would magically fix the flexibility. The only difference is then instead of posts complaining about how high the payroll is there would be posts complaining about how this team doesn't spend the money necessary to win.

 

[Nikolokolus]

 

[hoopsjock]

I don't care one bit about saving Paul Allen money. I care about the lack of flexibility Neil has created by poorly predicting what would happen with the cap. We have 3 contracts that are essentially immovable on their own. Three contracts for players who give us all a net negative on the court. This can't be understated how fucked we are because of the moves he made in 2016. As I've said a million times in the past, these moves were not made with the actual roster in mind-- rather with retaining assets (mind you, assets that have 0 value when combined with their contracts just one year later).

All that said, it's well and good that you don't expect a contender now. But I think you're not seeing how dire our situation is even for the near future. There is literally no out for the mistakes of Summer '16. We are wasting the prime of possibly the best player in franchise history because of those very mistakes. Hate being doom and gloom, but this team's absolute ceiling is maybe 50 wins and the second round for the rest of Dame's tenure, and that's a damn shame.

So the rest of Dame's tenure is two seasons? Because all 3 of those contracts come off the books then. All 3 become expiring after next season which also makes them more valuable.

 

[illmatic99]

So the rest of Dame's tenure is two seasons? Because all 3 of those contracts come off the books then. All 3 become expiring after next season which also makes them more valuable.

What avenue do you see to move us to the HOU/GS (hell, even SA/MIN) level before 2020?

 

[Boob-No-More]

They’d have no need for Frye with Aminu on the team.

They turned down George Hill because they didn't want to move Frye. They get Bove back in mid-March, a month before the playoffs start. They need improved play at PG, especially on defense, much more than a short term band aid at PF.

Plus, they also value Frye as an expiring contract in case LeBron leaves this summer. If he does leave, they will want to dump as much salary as possible to go all in on the rebuild.

They would also need to include another player in addition to Frye to make the salaries match. They won't want to give up anyone young and cheap which means one of their surplus of underachieving veteran ring chasers. Most are expiring, but they are also just as useless to us as they are to CLE.

Finally, there is no way to get under the tax threshold when trading with CLE. They are $35 million over the cap, $15 million over the tax threshold and hard capped by being over the apron. They can't take back any surplus salary. And, as they said in the podcast, POR's most likely goal will be to shed the $3 million necessary to get under the tax threshold. Aminu has enough value they could probably accomplish that by moving him elsewhere. It's basically him, or Ed Davis when it comes to trades that will get us under the tax threshold.

BNM

 

[noknobs]

Hate being doom and gloom, but this team's absolute ceiling is maybe 50 wins and the second round for the rest of Dame's tenure, and that's a damn shame.

That's ridiculous. It's hard to tell what the next year will bring, let alone his entire tenure in Portland.

 

[riverman]

But I think you're not seeing how dire our situation is even for the near future.

yeah...don't see it as a dire predicament and if you read my original post....ET, Mo and Meyers are responsible for earning those contracts or building value...I understand why Olshey took the risks on all 3 guys. I've seen more playoff success with Stotts at the helm than previous years..going back to Drexler's heyday

 

[kjironman1]

but I cant see us adding third piece without giving Nurk away

Nurk is the Third piece if you ask me. Needs another 2-3000 minutes to develop. Just my take.

 

[Boob-No-More]

If the Grizz want a first for Evans, maybe we make it a 3-way deal with the Cavs first going to Memphis, with us taking back Evans and the largely-useless-to-them Ben McLemore?

View attachment 18455

I'd like to snag Evans, but as been discussed, he'd be a short term rental. If we do acquire him, it's for a late season and playoff push. As high as the team is on Zach Collins, I don't think they are ready to move him full time into the starting line up, at least not if a late season and playoff push this year is the goal (which is the only reason to go after Evans). Collins may be the future, but an Evans trade is a win now move.

I suppose we could trade Aminu, start Vonleh at the 4 and Evans at the 3, and continue to bring Collins off the bench, but that seems a lot like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

That's ridiculous. It's hard to tell what the next year will bring, let alone his entire tenure in Portland.

Dame is on contract for two more years after this one. What hope do we have of retaining him past that as a treadmill team?

yeah...don't see it as a dire predicament and if you read my original post....ET, Mo and Meyers are responsible for earning those contracts or building value...I understand why Olshey took the risks on all 3 guys. I've seen more playoff success with Stotts at the helm than previous years..going back to Drexler's heyday

Didn't we make the playoffs every year from 77 to like 2004?

 

[hoopsjock]

What avenue do you see to move us to the HOU/GS (hell, even SA/MIN) level before 2020?

Well that's kind of my point. It would take at least two miracle moves to contend this year or next year with GS. That isn't realistic whether our payroll was last in the league or the highest in the league. The moves of the summer of 2016 wouldn't have changed GS adding the 2nd best player in the league to a 73 win team.

They have to have several things happen. They need Collins to be the guy they hoped to get when trading up. They need Nurkic to be the Bosnian Beast. They need a trade or two that either nets them a star (unlikely probably) or a trade that is similar to the Nurkic deal last year in which they pick up a player that is unwanted or not used properly elsewhere and turns out to be a nice fit on our team. Of course if they hit a home run on a non-lottery draft pick (Kawhi, Greek Freak, Gobert, Butler) that would really, really boost their chances.

 

[hoopsjock]

Dame is on contract for two more years after this one. What hope do we have of retaining him past that as a treadmill team?



Didn't we make the playoffs every year from 77 to like 2004?

Nah man, Dame has 3 more years after this one.

 

[illmatic99]

Nah man, Dame has 3 more years after this one.

Noted. My bad.

Point still remains. It would still be completely within the realm of possibilities to see him request a deal out before that last year if we still haven't taken the leap. And those contracts we signed in 16 are a massive hurdle to overcome. You, yourself mention the need for a miracle or multiple instances of good fortune to move up. we would be in a far better place now if we had more flexibility in place of these assets.

 

[kjironman1]

Well that's kind of my point. It would take at least two miracle moves to contend this year or next year with GS. That isn't realistic whether our payroll was last in the league or the highest in the league. The moves of the summer of 2016 wouldn't have changed GS adding the 2nd best player in the league to a 73 win team.

They have to have several things happen. They need Collins to be the guy they hoped to get when trading up. They need Nurkic to be the Bosnian Beast. They need a trade or two that either nets them a star (unlikely probably) or a trade that is similar to the Nurkic deal last year in which they pick up a player that is unwanted or not used properly elsewhere and turns out to be a nice fit on our team. Of course if they hit a home run on a non-lottery draft pick (Kawhi, Greek Freak, Gobert, Butler) that would really, really boost their chances.

Hoops here is the thing i am thinking about our payroll that might help a little bit. Last year the actual cap level went down instead of going up as predicted. This year i expect there to be a much bigger jump in the cap level. That could help out a bit if that happens. Of course not a lot but some relief could be on the horizon. There is now way IMO that cap level stays the same or drops again. Just doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[hoopsjock]

Noted. My bad.

Point still remains. It would still be completely within the realm of possibilities to see him request a deal out before that last year if we still haven't taken the leap. And those contracts we signed in 16 are a massive hurdle to overcome. You, yourself mention the need for a miracle or multiple instances of good fortune to move up. we would be in a far better place now if we had more flexibility in place of these assets.

Would we though?

Please explain to me how their would be so much more flexibility right now? The Blazers have the highest Trade Exception in the league right now so they could easily improve the team if they were willing to spend the money. They never used the tax-payer MLE this year so they could still use that to sign someone on the buyout market.

 

[e_blazer]

Houston was a treadmill team until they got CP3. If he stays healthy, they're elite. If he doesn't, they're back among the pack. Things change from season to season. Klay Thompson and Durant both have just one year left on their contracts after this season. Who knows what happens then.

 

[hoopsjock]

Hoops here is the thing i am thinking about our payroll that might help a little bit. Last year the actual cap level went down instead of going up as predicted. This year i expect there to be a much bigger jump in the cap level. That could help out a bit if that happens. Of course not a lot but some relief could be on the horizon. There is now way IMO that cap level stays the same or drops again. Just doesn't seem likely to me.

Yeah, the NBA seems to be thriving right now. We'll see what the Blazers plans are by Thursday if they keep the RFA's or not.

This is what I think the plan was going into this season:

Stay around the luxury tax line and see how this team performs. If they played like they did towards the end of last season or they have an opportunity to add some real difference making talent then use the Trade Exception and not really worry about the tax. If they struggled or were treading water then just duck the tax bill and focus on after the season ends to really make some big moves. At the draft and during the first couple weeks of free agency teams might be giving players away because there isn't a lot of cap room to sign all these stars that are going to be available. It seems like a waste of a year but why not save a little money this year and re-invest it by going all in this summer?

 

[KingSpeed]

Yes, that is great news... we are basically gonna stick with a roster that can only beat teams with their star players out, that is dead last in assist and fast breakbpoints... great news, not even entertaining offers for CJ.... great news Collins is untouchable... basically we are not offering anything of value in trade... so we will be stuck as 6-8 seed while other teams get better... great news

That's how the Warriors won two championships.

2015- beat Cavs without Kyrie or Love. Dellevedova was Cleveland's second best player and Golden State actually lost twice.

2017- beat Spurs without Kawhi Leonard

If those teams are healthy, I don't think GS wins either year.

as opposed to the 14 teams that won't even sniff the playoffs.....playoffs is where you develop young players ..can't replicate that in pick up games in the off season. We beat superstar OKC team pretty handily What's your address? I'll send you a CD....and it was fun to watch..I don't think anybody expects a championship this season anyway

Twice! Something GS has failed to do thus far.

 

[kjironman1]

Yeah, the NBA seems to be thriving right now. We'll see what the Blazers plans are by Thursday if they keep the RFA's or not.

This is what I think the plan was going into this season:

Stay around the luxury tax line and see how this team performs. If they played like they did towards the end of last season or they have an opportunity to add some real difference making talent then use the Trade Exception and not really worry about the tax. If they struggled or were treading water then just duck the tax bill and focus on after the season ends to really make some big moves. At the draft and during the first couple weeks of free agency teams might be giving players away because there isn't a lot of cap room to sign all these stars that are going to be available. It seems like a waste of a year but why not save a little money this year and re-invest it by going all in this summer?

I kind of think Neil Olshey as well as most every GM went on predictions. The cap was supposed to go up 7-10 million this year. That didn't happen. If it did? They are not having this same conversation because getting under the tax threshold is not a problem.
I agree they are simply going to make a small move to just bump down below the tax area. Makes total sense if they can. Then make more moves this summer.

 

[illmatic99]

Would we though?

Yes. Not only because of opportunity cost, but because the three players that we are overpaying are unquestioned negatives on the floor, and the highest paid one makes both of our stars worse.

Please explain to me how their would be so much more flexibility right now?

I can't tell if you're being facetious with this question. First of all, we would be a better team as Turner would not be playing. But we would actually have some capspace if we did not have Turner/Moe/Leonard on the roster. And not to mention the dead money we are carrying with the Nicholson/Ezeli contracts (and Varejao). This is such an inefficient use of $.

The Blazers have the highest Trade Exception in the league right now so they could easily improve the team if they were willing to spend the money.

Again generated because PA/Neil overpaid for mediocrity. Let's not forget that PA is paying Nicholson nearly $3mil for seven years just to get rid of Crabbe. Highly doubt PA would approve using that TPE for anything more than the $ savings given Neil's lack of proper judgement when it comes to evaluating talent.

They never used the tax-payer MLE this year so they could still use that to sign someone on the buyout market.

Like whom?

Not to be too pedantic again, but our only chance of moving up in the next two/three years is to find some gem to land in our laps like Nurk did. We also shouldn't forget how Neil himself was toting the pick he gained in that deal moreso than he did Nurk. Really losing faith in his ability to build a team.

 

[illmatic99]

Houston was a treadmill team until they got CP3. If he stays healthy, they're elite. If he doesn't, they're back among the pack. Things change from season to season. Klay Thompson and Durant both have just one year left on their contracts after this season. Who knows what happens then.

They went to the WCF in 2015 (after winning 56 games), won 55 games last year before flaming out against the SAS buzzsaw. And they have a bonafide MVP candidate. Besides the fact that they still had the pieces needed to make a deal for CP in the first place, which we clearly do not.

Not seeing what you are.

 

[B-Roy]

It's kind of ridiculous how many people still haven't accepted how badly the summer of 16 fucked this team.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't care one bit about saving Paul Allen money. I care about the lack of flexibility Neil has created by poorly predicting what would happen with the cap. We have 3 contracts that are essentially immovable on their own. Three contracts for players who give us all a net negative on the court. This can't be understated how fucked we are because of the moves he made in 2016. As I've said a million times in the past, these moves were not made with the actual roster in mind-- rather with retaining assets (mind you, assets that have 0 value when combined with their contracts just one year later).

All that said, it's well and good that you don't expect a contender now. But I think you're not seeing how dire our situation is even for the near future. There is literally no out for the mistakes of Summer '16. We are wasting the prime of possibly the best player in franchise history because of those very mistakes. Hate being doom and gloom, but this team's absolute ceiling is maybe 50 wins and the second round for the rest of Dame's tenure, and that's a damn shame.

If we do absolutely nothing, the terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad contracts come off the books in 2 years. I don't think dame is going to be washed up at 30...

 

[hoopsjock]

Yes. Not only because of opportunity cost, but because the three players that we are overpaying are unquestioned negatives on the floor, and the highest paid one makes both of our stars worse.


I can't tell if you're being facetious with this question. First of all, we would be a better team as Turner would not be playing. But we would actually have some capspace if we did not have Turner/Moe/Leonard on the roster. And not to mention the dead money we are carrying with the Nicholson/Ezeli contracts (and Varejao). This is such an inefficient use of $.


Again generated because PA/Neil overpaid for mediocrity. Let's not forget that PA is paying Nicholson nearly $3mil for seven years just to get rid of Crabbe. Highly doubt PA would approve using that TPE for anything more than the $ savings given Neil's lack of proper judgement when it comes to evaluating talent.


Like whom?

Not to be too pedantic again, but our only chance of moving up in the next two/three years is to find some gem to land in our laps like Nurk did. We also shouldn't forget how Neil himself was toting the pick he gained in that deal moreso than he did Nurk. Really losing faith in his ability to build a team.

While I completely agree the Turner signing is bad both on the court and off the court, you still didn't really explain how flexibility would be different. I'm fully aware of how the TPE was generated but that doesn't change the fact that having it is flexible.

If they were right at the cap number then they wouldn't be able to sign anyone either. No matter how far over the cap they are now, they still have the flexibility of bringing in $13 million or less for nothing. I'm not arguing about the on court play or if they will use it but it's not debatable that having no cap space and no trade exception is less flexible than having no cap space and a TPE.

 

[illmatic99]

It's kind of ridiculous how many people still haven't accepted how badly the summer of 16 fucked this team.

I feel like I'm beating a dead horse in here today. The concept of opportunity cost clearly isn't gaining any traction. Having nothing on the roster with a bit of capspace is better than having three immovable deals for which we would need to give up assets to get rid of. We have nearly 120 mil tied up in contracts for players who will give us nothing for three years. It would be have been close to 200 mil if we didn't find the AC trade dump.

Even Houston got fucked to an extent with the Gordon and Anderson deals, but Gordon has surprisingly remained healthy and is putting up numbers. Anderson is trash. But the rest of their roster was flexible enough and comprised of the right contracts to get a guy like CP. Most teams have one or two bad deals like this. We have three. In this market where players don't consider POR a destination to force trades to, these mistakes are so much more magnified.

 

[RipCityDSCPL]

Other than being kind of embarrassing, what does it really matter what the payroll is?

Let's say they never signed Turner. The numbers would look much better but they'd still be over the cap so it's not like it would magically fix the flexibility. The only difference is then instead of posts complaining about how high the payroll is there would be posts complaining about how this team doesn't spend the money necessary to win.

 

[illmatic99]

If we do absolutely nothing, the terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad contracts come off the books in 2 years. I don't think dame is going to be washed up at 30...

Lets hope so. Let's also hope he doesn't ask out before then.

 

[ripcityboy]

If we do absolutely nothing, the terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad contracts come off the books in 2 years. I don't think dame is going to be washed up at 30...

So we are going to just waste 2 years of Dame's career being hamstrung by bad contracts? Are you sure he's okay with that? Because if we plan to let prior mistakes stop us from making groundbreaking moves, I can guarantee you he will look at other career options. He got his teammates paid but it's not up to him if they bog the cap down.

 

[Gronk Brady]

I’m so sick of defending Neil... seriously, the fact the he won’t even entertain offers for CJ... and now Collins is untouchable too. This team is dead last in assists because we have two guards that play iso ball in our starting lineup.. he has had years to evaluate and see that it doesn’t work and wants to keep rolling with it. Neil has been saying “next year” for 5 years now... this guy has no balls and will never pull trigger on a big deal... so disappointing

 

[illmatic99]

Re-live the horror: http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/evan-turner-becomes-a-blazer.302179/

Can't believe that sticker shock. Even I was trying to rationalize that in the end. smh.