Lowe podcast with Woj

[e_blazer]

No.

They won 55 games last year, not 41. The summer prior (when they had won 41 games), they splurged on their free agents in the summer of 16 like everyone else.

We won 44 games that same year they won 41. Splurged on free agents in the summer. Then, won 41 games.

They improved, we stagnated.

So I was off a year. Not sure what we’re arguing about here. My only point is that things change from season to season. The Blazers certainly spent their money poorly in 2016, but they’re on pace to win 45 games this year and can elevate that if they are able to make a good trade by Thursday. Let’s hope they do.

 

[BrianFromWA]

So we are going to just waste 2 years of Dame's career being hamstrung by bad contracts? Are you sure he's okay with that? Because if we plan to let prior mistakes stop us from making groundbreaking moves, I can guarantee you he will look at other career options. He got his teammates paid but it's not up to him if they bog the cap down.

I'm not sure of anything (except that LMA knew he was going to leave ). What I am suggesting is that mortgaging the house and selling the seed corn to cover sunk costs is rarely the way to build a sustainable, successful franchise.

I'm supremely interested in someone giving me a realistic, (doesn't have to be "rumored") deal whereby we give up bad contracts to erase our mistake to show Dame that we're serious. Because there's like 4 teams right now that have cap space to absorb our bad stuff, and no one can absorb more than 2 of them, even if we gave 4 1sts and Zach up in the deal. There's almost literally no way that you can get rid of ET, Mo and Meyers. And if you give up young players and draft picks in "Groundbreaking moves", all you're doing is setting the exact same conditions that were there when 2015 and 2016 rolled around (no young cheap talent in the pipeline, paying to keep a team together that is 1 star deep, no room to rebuild). Why?

I'm not saying not to use the combo of salaries and young talent/picks to bring in an expensive prime all-star long-term. For instance, if you said Moe and a 1st for Robert Covington, I'd say "Sign me up!" and "PHI probably laughs". If you say "all our garbage and 1sts for DeAndre, well, I've already told you why that's a pipe dream. CHI has already used up a big part of their cap space bringing Asik on for a 1st. ATL might trade cap space for picks. Mavs might (doubtful).

 

[blue9]

But now, he needs to strike gold. Good value and outperforming their draft positions is no longer good enough. He needs to find a fucking superstar outside of the lottery. That's a nearly, but not quite, impossible task and it sucks that POR is in that position. Rather than trading picks to move bad contracts, he should actually be trying to accurate as many picks between 15 and 35 as possible. And then, he needs to say the hell with need and absolutely draft BPA with every single pick, or bundle multiple picks to move up and grab THAT guy, regardless of position. He needs to find a superstar.

Totally agree with this post. But there's yet another hurdle to overcome in the event he DOES strike gold with a mid-pick: that pick needs to PLAY.

 

[hoopsjock]

The thing is, all those other guys that signed contracts in 2016 will be expiring too. And expirings have lost value over the last couple years. I don’t doubt we’ll be able to move those contracts but it’s not going to be for a nice piece in return unless we attach a valued asset to them. Even the Clippers who are clearly wanting to shed salary asked for Harris and Bradley to get out from BG’s contract. The ET, Leonard, Harkless contracts will be dealt to simply get out from under them but I doubt they will met us anything of value in return unless we attach picks or young players.

Um, just about any trade ever made to acquire something of value in return requires picks and/or young players so to say that expirings won't accomplish that on their own is pretty obvious. They are part of the equation of making trades now though. Take last summer for example, if we could have offered players with one year left on their deal and 3 1st round picks for guys like Jimmy Butler or Paul George then things may have been different. No one wanted those guys since they had 3 years left on their contracts. There will always be guys on bad deals that teams are looking to move.

 

[Boob-No-More]

In related news, Meyers has his PER back up to 20.0. Good timing young man.

Neil - quick, trade him! His value will never be not lower.

BNM

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Ultimately, and unfortunately, I think our best chance to contend with this group lies in the draft, but NOT the draft lottery. As long as Dame is here, we won't be in the lottery. So, we need to hit, not a home run, but a fucking grand slam with one of our mid-first to mid-second round picks. We need to find the next Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green outside of the draft lottery. The odds are long, but every couple years, a game changing star it taking outside of the lottery.

Neil has been a total fuck up when signing free agents, that's only partly his fault as this market doesn't attract the top names, but he's given into the market conditions and overpaid non-needle movers. That's on him and smacks of desperation.

His trading history is a mixed bag, but most of the deals have been reactionary, based on current needs rather part of some longer term plan.

The one area where he's found above market value has been the draft. Lillard and McCollum are obvious gems that have played better than many/most players taken ahead of them. We're all hopeful Collins will also turn into a gem. He's also found good value in the second round, with Barton, Crabbe and Connaughton all outperforming their draft positions.

But now, he needs to strike gold. Good value and outperforming their draft positions is no longer good enough. He needs to find a fucking superstar outside of the lottery. That's a nearly, but not quite, impossible task and it sucks that POR is in that position. Rather than trading picks to move bad contracts, he should actually be trying to accurate as many picks between 15 and 35 as possible. And then, he needs to say the hell with need and absolutely draft BPA with every single pick, or bundle multiple picks to move up and grab THAT guy, regardless of position. He needs to find a superstar.

Even if that star plays the same position as Dame or C.J. they would become our most valuable trade asset. It's a lot easier to trade a young star for a proven Paul George/Jimmy Butler level player than it is to try to bundle our garbage in hope of getting something worthwhile in return. And lets face it, no way does any of our garbage get us back a player that would make us contenders - not even close.

BNM

I agree and it makes me wonder why he picked Swanigan last year, a guy who it would appear doesn't have much upside. It seems guys like Kuzma, Ojeleye, Bolden or Iwundu would have been better chances at hitting a home run.

 

[hoopsjock]

If it’s true that’s a decent core than we wouldn’t NEED a “huge upgrade” on the wing to make it work. One we will never be able to acquire without shipping out one of the players from said decent core. I think this team is a lot further off then people assume.

Hmmm, how did San Antonio add Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili to their core without giving up Duncan or Robinson or Elliott?

It is possible to get out of purgatory. This doesn't have to be the final stage of this roster. Yes, they have very little margin for error and need to hit a home run but how did they manage to add Nurkic and Collins to Dame and CJ while in a similar situation.

Concerning the core, Collins is still a project but has taken a huge leap in just a few months. Nurk single-handedly took our defense from near the bottom to top-10. You constantly have to add and grow the core.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I agree and it makes me wonder why he picked Swanigan last year, a guy who it would appear doesn't have much upside. It seems guys like Kuzma, Ojeleye, Bolden or Iwundu would have been better chances at hitting a home run.

I think he was drafting for need. With Ed Davis being a UFA and Noah Vonleh being a UFA, I think he was shopping for a cheap replacement.

BNM

 

[BrianFromWA]

Um, just about any trade ever made to acquire something of value in return requires picks and/or young players so to say that expirings won't accomplish that on their own is pretty obvious. They are part of the equation of making trades now though. Take last summer for example, if we could have offered players with one year left on their deal and 3 1st round picks for guys like Jimmy Butler or Paul George then things may have been different. No one wanted those guys since they had 3 years left on their contracts. There will always be guys on bad deals that teams are looking to move.

One of the reasons we didn't have any players left on 1 year deals is because we gave away all of our picks between CJ and 2017, and I'm pretty sure Kaman was the only player NO signed to the MLE...I'll have to look that up real quick.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I think he was drafting for need. With Ed Davis being a UFA and Noah Vonleh being a UFA, I think he was shopping for a cheap replacement.

BNM

Is this where someone has to bring up JORDAN EFFING BELL!1!! in this thread?

 

[hoopsjock]

Just look at the rosters of Houston, GSW, Boston, Minnesota, even Philly and Milwaukee and try and justify how our current roster, without drastic change, can compete with that. Without a PG level talent at the 3 or 4 I just don’t see how we even come close to the level of some of those rosters.

Wait, our roster isn't as loaded as GS? How insightful! Philly and Milwaukee are big underachievers, as is Minnesota until this year and even with their "superior roster" they aren't really that much better than us. How do we even make the playoffs with how awful our roster is?

 

[AFully22]

Hmmm, how did San Antonio add Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili to their core without giving up Duncan or Robinson or Elliott?

It is possible to get out of purgatory. This doesn't have to be the final stage of this roster. Yes, they have very little margin for error and need to hit a home run but how did they manage to add Nurkic and Collins to Dame and CJ while in a similar situation.

Concerning the core, Collins is still a project but has taken a huge leap in just a few months. Nurk single-handedly took our defense from near the bottom to top-10. You constantly have to add and grow the core.

I get your sentiment but, if our only hope is to draft as well as the freakin Spurs then we’re fucked lol. That stretch of draft picks by San Antonio might have been the best in the history of the game when you consider where there picks were.

I think the difference is I just don’t see Nurk, CJ, or Collins as obvious franchise pillars. They very well might become just that but at this point CJ is an elite scorer and very poor defender, Nurk is an inefficient traditional 5, and Collins is a 19 yr old project with potential. That’s the reality.

 

[AFully22]

Wait, our roster isn't as loaded as GS? How insightful! Philly and Milwaukee are big underachievers, as is Minnesota until this year and even with their "superior roster" they aren't really that much better than us. How do we even make the playoffs with how awful our roster is?

First of all, we barely made the playoffs last year and with a .500 record. We are a little better than last year but I wouldn’t be suprised if we finish with 43-45 wins. If you can’t see how drastically better those other rosters are I don’t know what to tell you. Sounds like you’ve been at the other end of too many of Olsheys roster pitches.

 

[hoopsjock]

I'm not sure of anything (except that LMA knew he was going to leave ). What I am suggesting is that mortgaging the house and selling the seed corn to cover sunk costs is rarely the way to build a sustainable, successful franchise.

I'm supremely interested in someone giving me a realistic, (doesn't have to be "rumored") deal whereby we give up bad contracts to erase our mistake to show Dame that we're serious. Because there's like 4 teams right now that have cap space to absorb our bad stuff, and no one can absorb more than 2 of them, even if we gave 4 1sts and Zach up in the deal. There's almost literally no way that you can get rid of ET, Mo and Meyers. And if you give up young players and draft picks in "Groundbreaking moves", all you're doing is setting the exact same conditions that were there when 2015 and 2016 rolled around (no young cheap talent in the pipeline, paying to keep a team together that is 1 star deep, no room to rebuild). Why?

I'm not saying not to use the combo of salaries and young talent/picks to bring in an expensive prime all-star long-term. For instance, if you said Moe and a 1st for Robert Covington, I'd say "Sign me up!" and "PHI probably laughs". If you say "all our garbage and 1sts for DeAndre, well, I've already told you why that's a pipe dream. CHI has already used up a big part of their cap space bringing Asik on for a 1st. ATL might trade cap space for picks. Mavs might (doubtful).

Just a small correction: The Bulls cap situation didn't really change much in the Mirotic trade because the trade itself was pretty close dollars wise this year and wasn't a lot different the following two years.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Just a small correction: The Bulls cap situation didn't really change much in the Mirotic trade because the trade itself was pretty close dollars wise this year and wasn't a lot different the following two years.

Good point...I was referencing that they didn't have to pick up Mirotic's option, and therefore could've had that 12M extra in cap space this summer. They traded him (and it) for basically a worse player and a 1st, effectively spending their 2018 summer cap space on Asik for the price of a 1st. If that makes sense.

 

[BonesJones]

I get your sentiment but, if our only hope is to draft as well as the freakin Spurs then we’re fucked lol. That stretch of draft picks by San Antonio might have been the best in the history of the game when you consider where there picks were.

I think the difference is I just don’t see Nurk, CJ, or Collins as obvious franchise pillars. They very well might become just that but at this point CJ is an elite scorer and very poor defender, Nurk is an inefficient traditional 5, and Collins is a 19 yr old project with potential. That’s the reality.

CJs defense has improved this year.

 

[hoopsjock]

I get your sentiment but, if our only hope is to draft as well as the freakin Spurs then we’re fucked lol. That stretch of draft picks by San Antonio might have been the best in the history of the game when you consider where there picks were.

I think the difference is I just don’t see Nurk, CJ, or Collins as obvious franchise pillars. They very well might become just that but at this point CJ is an elite scorer and very poor defender, Nurk is an inefficient traditional 5, and Collins is a 19 yr old project with potential. That’s the reality.

I understand your side too, but somehow we have Dame and despite CJ only being a scorer and poor defender, Nurk being inefficient, Collins being too young, three overpaid players contributing very little, and a bunch of other rather mediocre players this team is right in the mix for the middle of the playoff seeding. If Collins comes along quicker than we thought (he's already shown fast improvement) and/or Nurk starts to figure it out (not a huge stretch) then adding the right mix of players around those four could really turn into something. I'm not guaranteeing it or anything crazy like that but it seems silly after only having Nurk for a year and Collins for less than a season in which he wasn't expected to contribute at all anyway that we have already given up that this team can't get any better. Just one more smart trade like the Nurk one or hitting on a draft pick could catapult this team right there in the mix behind GS.

You can ask @kjironman1 , I was really down on this team after another sluggish start this year but that doesn't mean I can't think long term too.

 

[Scalma]

I get your sentiment but, if our only hope is to draft as well as the freakin Spurs then we’re fucked lol. That stretch of draft picks by San Antonio might have been the best in the history of the game when you consider where there picks were.

I think the difference is I just don’t see Nurk, CJ, or Collins as obvious franchise pillars. They very well might become just that but at this point CJ is an elite scorer and very poor defender, Nurk is an inefficient traditional 5, and Collins is a 19 yr old project with potential. That’s the reality.

If our only hope is to draft well we’re in a good position. It’s the only area I have confidence in Olshey to not fuck up.

 

[AFully22]

I understand your side too, but somehow we have Dame and despite CJ only being a scorer and poor defender, Nurk being inefficient, Collins being too young, three overpaid players contributing very little, and a bunch of other rather mediocre players this team is right in the mix for the middle of the playoff seeding. If Collins comes along quicker than we thought (he's already shown fast improvement) and/or Nurk starts to figure it out (not a huge stretch) then adding the right mix of players around those four could really turn into something. I'm not guaranteeing it or anything crazy like that but it seems silly after only having Nurk for a year and Collins for less than a season in which he wasn't expected to contribute at all anyway that we have already given up that this team can't get any better. Just one more smart trade like the Nurk one or hitting on a draft pick could catapult this team right there in the mix behind GS.

You can ask @kjironman1 , I was really down on this team after another sluggish start this year but that doesn't mean I can't think long term too.

You have much more optimism than I do. Although we both hope for the same thing I just think we want it done in different ways. The good news for you is all signs point towards Olshey choosing your option. Unless, and until, we get a new GM.

 

[hoopsjock]

Good point...I was referencing that they didn't have to pick up Mirotic's option, and therefore could've had that 12M extra in cap space this summer. They traded him (and it) for basically a worse player and a 1st, effectively spending their 2018 summer cap space on Asik for the price of a 1st. If that makes sense.

Yeah, I thought that is what you meant but I also didn't think they would let Mirotic walk for nothing after this year either.

I am completely with you on not wasting assets to dump salary but...

Evan Turner and two 1st round picks to Chicago for Denzel Valentine both saves us $15 million and gives us a cheap wing that could still have some potential. I wouldn't do it but I just wanted to post something that might be doable although Chicago is usually pretty cheap.

 

[Propagandist]

I've been hovering on the outskirts of this conversation since this morning, then I go to the Meltdown thread, write half a page which I don't post, then say fuck it and head to B/R to see if anything has happened and then back here again to begin the cycle anew. I'm a trade deadline spinning wheel of building rage. I'm constantly trying to balance my soul level dislike of Olshey with a rational assessment of what he has and hasn't accomplished. I try so hard to convince myself that there is a solid plan in place...but fuck! this is a frustrating roster. It feels like when you go to retrieve the extension cord from the garage and it's a tangled mess and you can't even find the ends except that fucking Olshey is holding the extension cord and telling me how great it is. I need to go to the Meltdown thread again, I'm losing my mind.

 

[e_blazer]

I've been hovering on the outskirts of this conversation since this morning, then I go to the Meltdown thread, write half a page which I don't post, then say fuck it and head to B/R to see if anything has happened and then back here again to begin the cycle anew. I'm a trade deadline spinning wheel of building rage. I'm constantly trying to balance my soul level dislike of Olshey with a rational assessment of what he has and hasn't accomplished. I try so hard to convince myself that there is a solid plan in place...but fuck! this is a frustrating roster. It feels like when you go to retrieve the extension cord from the garage and it's a tangled mess and you can't even find the ends except that fucking Olshey is holding the extension cord and telling me how great it is. I need to go to the Meltdown thread again, I'm losing my mind.

Just stick your tongue into the outlet and you’ll get a little “correction” to your thinking.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Instead of extension cord, think Christmas lights. Sure, they're tangled up in a big nasty ball of fuckery, but they all still work when you plug them in. Sure, you can spend your car payment going to the Clark Griswold Light Factory to get new ones, which would be easier to put up and would show "progress". Unfortunately, you now don't have a car payment, so you pull cash off of your credit cards at 24% to cover the shortfall, and in time the interest and lack of credit card space when you really need groceries sucks.

Instead, just take a breath, sit down, and untangle the ball. It may take awhile, and you may get frustrated from time to time, but the lights all work and you're not throwing good money and assets you can't afford to give away just to make it quicker and easier.

"Quick-and-easy is how you bake a cake or shop by mail. Quick and easy is NOT how you run a multimillion dollar enterprise such as ours."

 

[Propagandist]

Just stick your tongue into the outlet and you’ll get a little “correction” to your thinking.

1. I don't know what your tongue looks like but mine isn't thin and forked, so...
2. You're happy with the state of the team?

You know ESPN? They have an article entitled, "A Big NBA Money Crunch is Coming." The photo accompanied shows Trail Blazers. The first paragraphs are about the Trail Blazers. Because? Olshey has invested poorly in our future. How do we go about correcting them too?

 

[Scalma]

1. I don't know what your tongue looks like but mine isn't thin and forked, so...
2. You're happy with the state of the team?

You know ESPN? They have an article entitled, "A Big NBA Money Crunch is Coming." The photo accompanied shows Trail Blazers. The first paragraphs are about the Trail Blazers. Because? Olshey has invested poorly in our future. How do we go about correcting them too?

Oh, well if ESPN says so

 

[TBpup]

What does this even mean? Make what work? A 3&D player would just take this team from playoffs to contention. Doesn’t have to be a star. And no not this year either, since Collins and Nurk still have developing to do. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen soon though or that we need a major shakeup

What does it mean? It was in reference to two other posts...which were quoted.

 

[Propagandist]

Oh, well if ESPN says so

Phew, yeah, thank god it's not reality, otherwise we'd have the 6th highest payroll and a bunch of impending free agents...

 

[Scalma]

Phew, yeah, thank god it's not reality, otherwise we'd have the 6th highest payroll and a bunch of impending free agents...

Oh no will we survive??

 

[kjironman1]

I've been hovering on the outskirts of this conversation since this morning, then I go to the Meltdown thread, write half a page which I don't post, then say fuck it and head to B/R to see if anything has happened and then back here again to begin the cycle anew. I'm a trade deadline spinning wheel of building rage. I'm constantly trying to balance my soul level dislike of Olshey with a rational assessment of what he has and hasn't accomplished. I try so hard to convince myself that there is a solid plan in place...but fuck! this is a frustrating roster. It feels like when you go to retrieve the extension cord from the garage and it's a tangled mess and you can't even find the ends except that fucking Olshey is holding the extension cord and telling me how great it is. I need to go to the Meltdown thread again, I'm losing my mind.

Man would that have been a great post on the Meltdown Thread. Perfect!

 

[Blazers Roy]

I'm so happy to hear CJ is not on the block.

A bit less happy to hear that Collins is viewed as a building block.