Make your predictions

[illmatic99]

Perhaps I've missed the previous threads with similar topics. But we've now got some sort of idea of where we stand after preseason, so this is a great time to make our calls for the upcoming season.

Team:
Wins: 47
Seed in west: 6th
Playoff result: bounced out of first round in 6 games

Key players:
Dame: 21/6/3 on 44%FG, 39%3pt
LA: 22/9/2 on 49% FG
Nic: 16/6/4 on 43% FG, 38% 3pt

Surprise player of the year that will be better than we expect: CJ
Disappointment: Mo

Anything else?
Wes will be traded with some combo of players for another C at the trade deadline

 

[Eastoff]

Team:
Wins: 44
Seed in west: 7th
Playoff result: bounced out of first round in 6 games
Surprise player of the year that will be better than we expect: Wright
Disappointment: CJ

Anything else?
Wes will be traded with some combo of players for another SG at the trade deadline

 

[magnifier661]

Team:
Wins: 55
Seed in the west: 3rd
Playoff result: WCF (Lose to OKC in 7 games)

Key players:
Dame: 22.5 points, 5 dimes, 2 steals on 45% FG, 38% 3 pt
LMA: 21 points, 10 boards, 2.5 blocks a game on 50.3% FG
Nic: 15 points, 7 boards, 4 dimes a game on 46% FG, 40% 3pt

Surprise player: Robin Lopez
Disappointment: Leonard

Most likely mid-season trade: 3-team (CLE, Philly and Blazers) Matthews goes to Philly, Hawes to Cleveland and Varejao to Portland

 

[mook]

I look at the 2008 team that won 54 games, and aside from the massive caveat that we don't have a 24 PER Roy on this team, it's a better team.

That Roy caveat is huge, though, so I don't see us getting 54 wins. The downgrade from Roy to Lillard probably makes Portland at 48 or so wins, or where we were in the 2010-11 season with Andre Miller and the honeymoon period with Crash and Camby (pre-Crawful and Failton).

Probably a first round exit, but who knows. It's a long season, and Lillard, Batum, Robinson and LMA all have significant potential to exceed expectations.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Pain. We will lose our last game of the season, but it will thankfully not be April 16 against the Clippers.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Team:
Wins: 45
Seed in west: 7th
Playoff result: Win our first playoff series this century! (not counting the year 2000)

Key players:
LMA
Damian
Batum
Mo

Surprise player of the year that will be better than we expect: Claver
Disappointment: Leonard

Anything else?
If we are below .500 at the trade deadline, LMA will be traded

 

[mook]

If everybody predicts Leonard will disappoint, will it really be disappointing?

 

[magnifier661]

If everybody predicts Leonard will disappoint, will it really be disappointing?

Yes. I think the biggest issue is "He should be our back-up center" and freeland should be third string. Until he is capable of taking that back, he's a major disappointment to me.

 

[mook]

I do think Robin Lopez will be the surprise player of the year. Portland was so atrocious last year defensively, and Lopez is going to stand out remarkably in comparison to Hickson, not just in Portland but nationally.

And there's really no reason he shouldn't become an upper tier center. His genetic clone is. How often in the NBA do you have twins where one of them is an elite success and the other is regarded as a fringe starter? Twins are pretty rare, but this article brings up 5 sets. Harvy and Horace had different careers, with Horace getting the rings and the much longer career. But Harvey actually scored more at his peak, scoring 18ppg for three years. The Robin/Brook twin set seems like the real outlier among the list, and given the youth of these two and the injury history, maybe we'll see some regression to the mean here.

I don't think Robin will ever have a fraction of Brook's offensive skills, but it seems like the overall quality potential is still there. It just may manifest itself on the defensive end more. He's 25, he's not living in the shadow of Shaq/Amare/Anthony Davis, and he's on a competitive playoff team that really cares about his defensive services (as opposed to Phoenix/NOH, where defense wasn't always a premium).

 

[illmatic99]

Are Blake and his bro twins?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Team wins: 42
Seed: 9th

Key player: Damian
Most surprising: Mo Williams
Most Disappointing: Lopez (when he misses 25 games due to injuries)

 

[mook]

Are Blake and his bro twins?

Nope. Blake is the younger brother.

 

[magnifier661]

I do think Robin Lopez will be the surprise player of the year. Portland was so atrocious last year defensively, and Lopez is going to stand out remarkably in comparison to Hickson, not just in Portland but nationally.

And there's really no reason he shouldn't become an upper tier center. His genetic clone is. How often in the NBA do you have twins where one of them is an elite success and the other is regarded as a fringe starter? Twins are pretty rare, but this article brings up 5 sets. Harvy and Horace had different careers, with Horace getting the rings and the much longer career. But Harvey actually scored more at his peak, scoring 18ppg for three years. The Robin/Brook twin set seems like the real outlier among the list, and given the youth of these two and the injury history, maybe we'll see some regression to the mean here.

I don't think Robin will ever have a fraction of Brook's offensive skills, but it seems like the overall quality potential is still there. It just may manifest itself on the defensive end more. He's 25, he's not living in the shadow of Shaq/Amare/Anthony Davis, and he's on a competitive playoff team that really cares about his defensive services (as opposed to Phoenix/NOH, where defense wasn't always a premium).

I agree with you. Actually I think Brook will be the offensive player and Lopez the defensive. And personally, I would rather my center be stronger defensively than offensively. That is of course we have a PF that can score in the low post.

I think this is why Aldridge needs to live in the paint. He would absolutely dominate down there. I don't think there is a single player that can play him straight up and win the battle.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

I said 50 wins in an earlier thread and I'm sticking with that.

Also, Meyers will cry in 17 games.

 

[KingSpeed]

If you say a player will be surprising, then he won't be surprising.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Team:
Wins: 46
Seed in west: 7th
Playoff result: Upsetting Clippers in first round 4-2, only to lose 4-1 to the Thunder in round two.

Key players:
Lillard: 23/7/3 on 46%FG, 37%3pt
Aldridge: 22/10/3 on 51% FG
Batum: 17/6/5 on 46% FG, 41% 3pt

Surprise player(s) of the year that will be better than we expect: Crabbe & Claver
Disappointment: Robinson

Anything else?
McCollum will comeback very strong and have Bradley Beal-like numbers.

 

[oldguy]

You can't predict that the player will surprise anyone besides you?

Go Blazers

 

[HailBlazers]

Team wins: 42
Seed: 9th

Key player: Damian
Most surprising: Mo Williams
Most Disappointing: Lopez (when he misses 25 games due to injuries)

Dave is that you?

I haven't seen anything to change my outlook on the season. *This still looks like a 38-42 win team to me. *The things you've mentioned are accurate. *Double exclamation point on Lillard. *He looks great already. *But outside of him, every fresh plus carries a weakness. *Mo Williams' scoring potential can keep your offense flowing or derail it; he'll shoot you in and out of games. *Robin Lopez' spirit is willing but the flesh is sometimes weak and the burden on his shoulders this year will be huge. *Over time those strengths and weaknesses are going to even out, leaving Portland somewhere near the middle in record and in the conference.

Portland Trail Blazers 2013-14 Season Preview: A Conversation With Dave

 

[3RA1N1AC]

48 wins and 6 seed
2nd round
Lillard and lma all star
Cj disappoints
Mo finishes 2nd for smotya

 

[BigGameDamian]

Team:
Wins: 44
Seed in west: 7th
Playoff result: bounced out of first round in 6 games
Surprise player of the year that will be better than we expect: Wright
Disappointment: CJ

Anything else?
Wes will be traded with some combo of players for another SG at the trade deadline

I think thats fair and I couldn't have said it better myself. I will take it even a step further and say the surprise player will be Allen Crabbe.

 

[Eastoff]

Actually I think Brook will be the offensive player and Lopez the defensive.

I think you mean Robin. Brook Lopez and Robin Lopez.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Dave is that you?



Portland Trail Blazers 2013-14 Season Preview: A Conversation With Dave

I don't read Blazersedge, but it sounds like Dave is on to something.

 

[magnifier661]

I think you mean Robin. Brook Lopez and Robin Lopez.

I did. Thanks for the correction

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Team:
Wins: 55
Seed in the west: 3rd
Playoff result: WCF (Lose to OKC in 7 games)

Key players:
Dame: 22.5 points, 5 dimes, 2 steals on 45% FG, 38% 3 pt
LMA: 21 points, 10 boards, 2.5 blocks a game on 50.3% FG
Nic: 15 points, 7 boards, 4 dimes a game on 46% FG, 40% 3pt

Surprise player: Robin Lopez
Disappointment: Leonard

Most likely mid-season trade: 3-team (CLE, Philly and Blazers) Matthews goes to Philly, Hawes to Cleveland and Varejao to Portland

To be a third seed, we'd have to finish ahead of OKC, no? So you're saying we're going to be better than OKC this year?

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I'll say 46 wins, 7th seed in the West, with a first-round loss (taking the series to the max, though). These are my realistic expectations.

Sometimes, players and teams gel and really reach their potential. If Portland does this (i.e. key guys stay healthy, Dame takes the big step forward he appears to be taking, our bench continuing to contribute, and Batum playing with more consistency), I could see them winning 52-54 games and either winning home court advantage or just missing out on it (i.e. 4-5 seed). I think this is their potential for the year, but I think my first is what I should realistically expect.

 

[magnifier661]

To be a third seed, we'd have to finish ahead of OKC, no? So you're saying we're going to be better than OKC this year?

I thought you can still lose the division and still get the third seed? The winners of the division are guaranteed a top 4 spot.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_playoffs

The team that has the best record in each of the three divisions in each conference is declared division champion. The three division champions, and another team in the conference with the best record, are seeded one through four by their records. This guarantees the division champions no worse than the fourth seed, and also guarantees the conference's two best teams (by record) will be the top two seeds even if the second-best team doesn't win its division. Of the remaining eleven conference teams, the four with the best records are seeded fifth through eighth based on their record.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I thought you can still lose the division and still get the third seed? The winners of the division are guaranteed a top 4 spot.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_playoffs

That's what I thought, but Tone called out Rice on Courtside last night about some seeding prediction that was similar to yours. So now I'm just confused.

I know there was the rule if Team A finished lower seeding-wise despite having the better record than Team B, Team A gets home court advantage in the event of a head-to-head matchup with Team B. Is that still the case? I don't follow these types of things much anymore (they've been irrelevant to the Blazers for so long).

 

[magnifier661]

That's what I thought, but Tone called out Rice on Courtside last night about some seeding prediction that was similar to yours. So now I'm just confused.

I know there was the rule if Team A finished lower seeding-wise despite having the better record than Team B, Team A gets home court advantage in the event of a head-to-head matchup with Team B. Is that still the case? I don't follow these types of things much anymore (they've been irrelevant to the Blazers for so long).

Well let's say "team A" won the division but was 5th worst. They would be the 4th seed, but have to play on the road against the 5th seed.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Well let's say "team A" won the division but was 5th worst. They would be the 4th seed, but have to play on the road against the 5th seed.

Yeah, that's what I was saying. In not so simple terms. Barely cognizant today.

 

[Eastoff]

To be a third seed, we'd have to finish ahead of OKC, no? So you're saying we're going to be better than OKC this year?

SAS and Hou are top two? LAC?