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Eastoff said:
SAS and Hou are top two? LAC?
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I was referring to winning the division, let alone finishing ahead of Houston and Flop City.

But I do love and appreciate Mags' enthusiasm/blind homerism. He's always so excited about the Blazers, and magasming everywhere. I can respect that.
 
Eastoff said:
SAS and Hou are top two? LAC?
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I think this will be the year SAS is a 5th-8th seed. There pattern has always been good the following year! ;)

As for Houston…. Harden is a stud, Howard could be a stud but fails under pressure. I can see this team either being #1 or drop all the way to #6. I'm not banking on any Houston bandwagon as of yet…
 
Bill Simmons podcast today said there has been heavy action on the over of the 38.5 win line on sportsbook.com. Both BS and his buddy agree on taking the over.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Bill Simmons podcast today said there has been heavy action on the over of the 38.5 win line on sportsbook.com. Both BS and his buddy agree on taking the over.
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So, does that mean the refs will be favorable or unfavorable to us this year?
 
BLAZINGGIANTS said:
I was referring to winning the division, let alone finishing ahead of Houston and Flop City.

But I do love and appreciate Mags' enthusiasm/blind homerism. He's always so excited about the Blazers, and magasming everywhere. I can respect that.
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oh duh, division. Excuse me, my dumb liberal brain is failing me. ;]
 
Wins: 45
Seed in west: 8th
Playoff result: Lose in the 1st round in 7
 
Low end: 49 wins.
Depending on matchups, WCF. I'm not scared of anyone in the West, including OKC sans Westbrook or LAC (Batum can slow down CP3, and LMA can hang with Blake). GSW can get hot, but when you're counting on health from Curry or Bogut, I'm not sure they're way better than us. DEN? SAS should be primed to slow down on of these years, but I'm not betting against them. I can't get a good handle on HOU. They should be awesome, but I don't know yet. I don't think that roster's set, and I think they're a DwightMare back injury away from being Golden State. MIN might be frisky, but when they can beat us more than twice in a decade I'll reevaluate. I think the L*kers are D-U-N. MEM is good, and they might beat us in a series, but I'm scared of them.

In short, the prognosticators and experts keep saying that the West is waaaay better this year, but I don't see a team I fear like the 2011 Thunder or a prime Spurs team. HOU could be (and I think LAC is fools' gold, and that Doc isn't as smart as everyone thinks he is, but if CP3 can stay healthy on one meniscus he's all-time great). I just don't see it. :dunno: What am I missing?
 
Isn't Russell supposed to come back in December? I think the impact of his early season absence is a bit overstated. Rather, I think losing a legit 15ppg scorer and shooter (and not getting anything at all in return) in KMart will hurt more. Reggie Jackson is a decent backup, but he's worse than Mo. And Jeremy Lamb is not going to contribute. So they got KD/RW/and Ibaka. Still good enough for 50-55wins, but definitely not striking the fear they used to.
 
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BrianFromWA said:
Low end: 49 wins.
Depending on matchups, WCF. I'm not scared of anyone in the West, including OKC sans Westbrook or LAC (Batum can slow down CP3, and LMA can hang with Blake). GSW can get hot, but when you're counting on health from Curry or Bogut, I'm not sure they're way better than us. DEN? SAS should be primed to slow down on of these years, but I'm not betting against them. I can't get a good handle on HOU. They should be awesome, but I don't know yet. I don't think that roster's set, and I think they're a DwightMare back injury away from being Golden State. MIN might be frisky, but when they can beat us more than twice in a decade I'll reevaluate. I think the L*kers are D-U-N. MEM is good, and they might beat us in a series, but I'm scared of them.

In short, the prognosticators and experts keep saying that the West is waaaay better this year, but I don't see a team I fear like the 2011 Thunder or a prime Spurs team. HOU could be (and I think LAC is fools' gold, and that Doc isn't as smart as everyone thinks he is, but if CP3 can stay healthy on one meniscus he's all-time great). I just don't see it. :dunno: What am I missing?
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I think Stotts really found something in the GS game. Batum completely shut down Curry in the third quarter. In fact, Curry only scored the one time Batum wasn't on him. It was a thing of beauty!!!! I hope Batum becomes that wing stopper. We really need one
 
yuyuza1 said:
Bill Simmons podcast today said there has been heavy action on the over of the 38.5 win line on sportsbook.com. Both BS and his buddy agree on taking the over.
Click to expand...

There is a reason casinos get rich and gamblers get poor.

38 wins
10th in the west
 
I wanted to Bump this, to give everyone a chance to reflect on how their view has changed since the season started.
 
magnifier661 said:
Team:
Wins: 55 (Pace to be higher, but sticking with this prediction)
Seed in the west: 3rd (Think its even more likely)
Playoff result: WCF (Lose to OKC in 7 games) - We may beat OKC in the WCF now!

Key players:
Dame: 22.5 points, 5 dimes, 2 steals on 45% FG, 38% 3 pt (- 19.9 PPG, 5.8 AST, 39.8% FG, 39.1% Threes)
LMA: 21 points, 10 boards, 2.5 blocks a game on 50.3% FG (22.5 PPG, 9 REB, 0.8 Blocks, 48% FG)
Nic: 15 points, 7 boards, 4 dimes a game on 46% FG, 40% 3pt (13 PPG, 6.5 Boards, 5.2 Assists)

Surprise player: Robin Lopez (True) Probably Matthews is even more of a surprise though
Disappointment: Leonard (Absolutely True)

Most likely mid-season trade: 3-team (CLE, Philly and Blazers) Matthews goes to Philly, Hawes to Cleveland and Varejao to Portland
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<-- Maybe not any longer

See fuckers!!!! You should listen to me! I almost even got the stats right too!

I hope I'm dead wrong about Matthews though. He has become one of my favorite players now. Reminds me how I felt about Kersey, back in the early 90's.
 
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My 48 win prediction may be pretty pessimistic, in hindsight. Which isn't like me--I'm usually one of the wild optimists. I guess I didn't appreciate how much we'd benefit from all the great perimeter shooters.

It reminds me of that 52 win Sonics team that just killed with three point shooting. Funny thing is our current team may even be more loaded with great three point shooters. We've got 4 guys hitting 39% or better, while that team only had 2.
 
Anyway, if I'm allowed to change my prediction, I'd adjust it up to 54 wins and (finally) a trip to the second round.
 
I'm sticking with my 47 and 6th seed prediction.

That's 37-33 the rest of the way. Considering our ridiculous remaining schedule, I think it's pretty reasonable.

Dame needs to improve his shooting quite a bit to get to 44% though.
 
BLAZINGGIANTS said:
I'll say 46 wins, 7th seed in the West, with a first-round loss (taking the series to the max, though). These are my realistic expectations.

Sometimes, players and teams gel and really reach their potential. If Portland does this (i.e. key guys stay healthy, Dame takes the big step forward he appears to be taking, our bench continuing to contribute, and Batum playing with more consistency), I could see them winning 52-54 games and either winning home court advantage or just missing out on it (i.e. 4-5 seed). I think this is their potential for the year, but I think my first is what I should realistically expect.
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I had a feeling that they might gel, which is why I added that comment. We have guys that have room to grow, we have a new center, there just seems to be some good cohesion. After watching the Giants win the World Series in 2010, I am a big believer in team chemistry. Sometimes, you don't need great chemistry when you have enough talent, but players need to know their roles. I feel like this team has great cohesion and chemistry, and that oftentimes brings players to new heights. I think that's what we're seeing thus far. I pray it continues, and I pray for player health.

I had my expectations, but I also felt they were pretty close last year, so them really growing and taking a step forward wasn't totally unexpected for me.
 
Bumpity Bump Bump, Bumpity Bump Bump, look at the those Blazers go!
2rond5z.jpg
 
How did I do?
Eastoff said:
Team:
(WRONG)Wins: 44
(WRONG)Seed in west: 7th
(?)Playoff result: bounced out of first round in 6 games
(WRONG: correct answer was Freeland)Surprise player of the year that will be better than we expect: Wright
(ONLY CORRECT ANSWER!)Disappointment: CJ

Anything else?
(WRONG)Wes will be traded with some combo of players for another SG at the trade deadline
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I predicted 48 wins, so (barring a disaster) I was uncharacteristically pessimistic. In years past I was always either dead on or wildly optimistic. Not sure what happened here. I suppose we were pretty lucky in the health department--if Lillard, Matthews, Robin and Batum weren't ironmen this year, we'd have had a much worse record because of the shitty bench. Seriously--4 of our 5 starters are on track to play all 82 games. How often does that happen?

I will say I seem rather prescient about Robin and my now-patented Twins Theory:

mook said:
I do think Robin Lopez will be the surprise player of the year. Portland was so atrocious last year defensively, and Lopez is going to stand out remarkably in comparison to Hickson, not just in Portland but nationally.

And there's really no reason he shouldn't become an upper tier center. His genetic clone is. How often in the NBA do you have twins where one of them is an elite success and the other is regarded as a fringe starter? Twins are pretty rare, but this article brings up 5 sets. Harvy and Horace had different careers, with Horace getting the rings and the much longer career. But Harvey actually scored more at his peak, scoring 18ppg for three years. The Robin/Brook twin set seems like the real outlier among the list, and given the youth of these two and the injury history, maybe we'll see some regression to the mean here.

I don't think Robin will ever have a fraction of Brook's offensive skills, but it seems like the overall quality potential is still there. It just may manifest itself on the defensive end more. He's 25, he's not living in the shadow of Shaq/Amare/Anthony Davis, and he's on a competitive playoff team that really cares about his defensive services (as opposed to Phoenix/NOH, where defense wasn't always a premium).
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BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94 said:
Team:
Wins: 46 (Idiot)
Seed in west: 7th (Idiot)
Playoff result: Upsetting Clippers in first round 4-2, only to lose 4-1 to the Thunder in round two. (Maybe? 90% unlikely)

Key players:
Lillard: 23/7/3 on 46%FG, 37%3pt (Nope)
Aldridge: 22/10/3 on 51% FG (Close but no cigar)
Batum: 17/6/5 on 46% FG, 41% 3pt (Idiot)

Surprise player(s) of the year that will be better than we expect: Crabbe & Claver (Nope)
Disappointment: Robinson (Idiot)

Anything else?
McCollum will comeback very strong and have Bradley Beal-like numbers. (BIGGEST IDIOT)
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Yikes.
 
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