Making A Case For Greg Oden (HoopsWorld)

[ABM]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?STORY_ID=17182

Entering the fourth season of his NBA career Portland Trail Blazers center Greg Oden is at a crossroads. If he plays very well he may find himself in high demand the next time free agency rolls around, whenever the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is hammered out. If he doesn't play well – or gets hurt this season, again - the market for him may be very, very dry.

See, with Oden that's been the issue: injuries.

When you look at his numbers, they are respectable. In 82 games he has averaged 11.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, and shot 58% from the field. The caveat here is those 82 games represent only parts of two seasons, with a third season – his first – lost completely to microfracture surgery on his knee.

Three seasons under contract, 82 games played – 61 in 2008-09 and 21 in 2009-10 (60 total starts). That's the knock.

But those 82 games? Some of those were pretty dang impressive. Sixteen double-doubles in 2008-09, including twice scoring 20 or more points, five times with 13 or more rebounds, and eight times blocking three or more shots.

And 2009-10, before the fractured patella, he was more impressive. He posted five double-doubles, blocked three or more shots eight times, and grabbed 20 rebounds in the last game before his injury, a career-high. His movement on the floor had become smoother in this third season, more purposeful. He knew where he was supposed to be and what his role was in the offensive and defensive schemes.

Basically, he had begun to give glimpses of the dominant big man he could become, and why Portland made the decision to pick him number one in 2007.

And all of this brings us to the summer of 2010. With one year left on his rookie scale contract, Greg Oden is eligible to sign a contract extension that will kick in for the 2011-12 season. This is much like the extensions signed last summer by Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge of Portland, Andrea Bargnani of Toronto, Rajon Rondo of Boston, and this year the one already signed this summer by Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City.

If you are the Portland Trail Blazers, do you make an extension offer to Greg Oden? With his injury history – and coming off the fractured patella – that's a decision that is full of risk.

If Portland locks him up now for up to another five years they could get themselves a heck of a deal, should Oden stay healthy. Or they could be committing long-term money to a black hole. If they don't make an offer, a fantastic, healthy season by Oden could drive his price sky-high – or another injury could leave them in the same situation they are now...............

....................................Assume for a minute Portland does want to do a long-term deal with Oden. What kind of money is reasonable? What can we compare it to? For reference, let's look at players, specifically power forwards and centers, who signed second contracts in the past couple seasons:

Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors: Five years, $50 million
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers: Five years, $65 million
Tyrus Thomas, Charlotte Bobcats: Five years, $40 million
David Lee, Golden State Warriors: Six years, $80 million
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers: Six years, $50 million
Luis Scola, Houston Rockets: Five years, $47 million
Charlie Villanueva, Detroit Pistons: Five years, $37.7 million
Marcin Gortat, Orlando Magic: Five years, $34 million
Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz: Four years, $34.5 million

And let's throw in these too:

Channing Frye, Phoenix Suns: Five years, $30 million
Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors: Five years, $30 million
Chris Andersen, Denver Nuggets: Five years, $26 million

Where on that scale does Oden fit?........................

 

[Natebishop3]

5 years 50 million, with the fifth year as a team option.

 

[Nikolokolus]

4 years 38 million with a team option for the 4th

 

[Idog1976]

5 years 50 million, with the fifth year as a team option.

I think that isn't a bad place to start, but why offer him one at all until springtime? He's an RFA after his contract is up and PA is ahem loaded. Why not wait? We can still pay for batum etc by going majorly over the cap that's never stopped PA before. Also even if they have a hard cap they would have to grandfather in old contracts. Re-sign oden and batum next spring and lock up the core. We have Matthews and Camby as well. Our only real weak spot is PG.

 

[andalusian]

5 years 50 million, with the fifth year as a team option.

I think this is fair.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think that isn't a bad place to start, but why offer him one at all until springtime? He's an RFA after his contract is up and PA is ahem loaded. Why not wait? We can still pay for batum etc by going majorly over the cap that's never stopped PA before. Also even if they have a hard cap they would have to grandfather in old contracts. Re-sign oden and batum next spring and lock up the core. We have Matthews and Camby as well. Our only real weak spot is PG.

There isn't necessarily going to be a "next Spring," if the lockout occurs. It's possible that RFA status will roll over to when the league resumes business but there is no guarantee.

 

[donkiez]

This is an easy answer. You do nothing until you have to. Currently he is to much of a question mark to commit to anything that will make him and us happy. By waiting the worst case scenario is that you pay market value or let someone else over pay for him.

 

[jlprk]

Too easy to talk about an opening offer. What's the highest you're willing to go if 1) he goes down this season or 2) he doesn't?

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Too easy to talk about an opening offer. What's the highest you're willing to go if 1) he goes down this season or 2) he doesn't?

I think it's pretty cut-and-dry with Oden (thankfully) as far as the contract goes. You don't HAVE to commit to anything until you get a pretty good idea of whether the injuries were true flukes or if they are signs of something to the future.

95% of the risk is gone by the time you actually put a pen on a paper since his injuries weren't soft tissue injuries, so you know you have a bone issue if he re-injures something, otherwise if he is healthy you know it was a fluke and likely will not happen again. So then you pretty much know what you have with PER and other statistical indicators to place a value, that doesn't take a genius to know what you'll get as far as the productivity of the player while he is healthy and on the court. So what you're left with is: will he be 100% healthy and spending a lot of time on the court for that contract.

If Oden has played nearly all of his possible games by the deadline to resign him, then you look at the updated productivity numbers and overpay as Paul Allen should accordingly (IE - if he's only putting up 11 and 9 throughout 10/11, then maybe he's only a 5 year/$50M player. If he's suddenly putting up 17 and 14 and 3 then he's closer to a max contract regardless of any past because now you know what you have for the next decade.

If he does go down and miss even more time from now until the deadline to resign, then you hold off and just let the market value show what he is worth as a free agent and decide then if you want to match or not. It's really pretty simple, you don't lock up a guy that gets yet another bone injury after two previous bone injuries (and a third in high school).

It's like renting a Corvette on a 1 month promotion for $10/month. You are asked to resign for the $300/month premium after the promotional period is through, but it had a dead battery in the first week, it then had a fuse blow out and you lost your turn signals in week 3. now you're about to begin week 4 and you're deciding if you want to resign after week 4 is done. Well you can still wait until week 4 finishes to make that choice, but at the end of the day you're not going to offer $200/month for a Corvette if it is fine now and looks like it will be good going forward. But if it has yet another issue and breaks down again, then you might just either turn it in or see if they'll offer you $200/month for a Vette that has "issues". But after just a dead battery and a fuse, don't be an idiot and think you're going to get some discount for the next couple years worth of rate for a smoking hot car.

 

[jlprk]

Let's say the market value is high. It takes only one fool among 29 GMs. How high will we go?

Edit: Whoa! You added a Sting Ray paragraph!

 

[Blazer_Mullet_Man]

I think it's pretty cut-and-dry with Oden (thankfully) as far as the contract goes. You don't HAVE to commit to anything until you get a pretty good idea of whether the injuries were true flukes or if they are signs of something to the future.

95% of the risk is gone by the time you actually put a pen on a paper since his injuries weren't soft tissue injuries, so you know you have a bone issue if he re-injures something, otherwise if he is healthy you know it was a fluke and likely will not happen again. So then you pretty much know what you have with PER and other statistical indicators to place a value, that doesn't take a genius to know what you'll get as far as the productivity of the player while he is healthy and on the court. So what you're left with is: will he be 100% healthy and spending a lot of time on the court for that contract.

If Oden has played nearly all of his possible games by the deadline to resign him, then you look at the updated productivity numbers and overpay as Paul Allen should accordingly (IE - if he's only putting up 11 and 9 throughout 10/11, then maybe he's only a 5 year/$50M player. If he's suddenly putting up 17 and 14 and 3 then he's closer to a max contract regardless of any past because now you know what you have for the next decade.

If he does go down and miss even more time from now until the deadline to resign, then you hold off and just let the market value show what he is worth as a free agent and decide then if you want to match or not. It's really pretty simple, you don't lock up a guy that gets yet another bone injury after two previous bone injuries (and a third in high school).

It's like renting a Corvette on a 1 month promotion for $10/month. You are asked to resign for the $300/month premium after the promotional period is through, but it had a dead battery in the first week, it then had a fuse blow out and you lost your turn signals in week 3. now you're about to begin week 4 and you're deciding if you want to resign after week 4 is done. Well you can still wait until week 4 finishes to make that choice, but at the end of the day you're not going to offer $200/month for a Corvette if it is fine now and looks like it will be good going forward. But if it has yet another issue and breaks down again, then you might just either turn it in or see if they'll offer you $200/month for a Vette that has "issues". But after just a dead battery and a fuse, don't be an idiot and think you're going to get some discount for the next couple years worth of rate for a smoking hot car.

Wow. A ton of effort to type that and it communicates zip. Nice job.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Wow. A ton of effort to type that and it communicates zip. Nice job.

That's OK. The effort was made for those with the mental capacity to grasp it. Whether a sentence or thesis paper, I would expect a complex illustration of logic to communicate "zip" to a monkey sitting in the corner at the zoo masturbating while eating a banana. And with your history of posts showing a close second to said monkey, I don’t expect my effort to make much difference either – I’ll just smile and go on to the next cage as most of the educated appear to do to your posts.

 

[jlprk]

HOF, if you ever stop posting at ESPN, their threads will be half as long. Make that a third, because the responding posts will be fewer. (I noticed that phenom when I left. Shorter threads now.)

If you write your usual stripper analogies here, it'll entertain them more than a Corvette analogy.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

HOF, if you ever stop posting at ESPN, their threads will be half as long. Make that a third, because the responding posts will be fewer. (I noticed that phenom when I left. Shorter threads now.)

If you write your usual stripper analogies here, it'll entertain them more than a Corvette analogy.

I know, I know. It's the curse of being able to type like a hundred-something wpm. I have a random thought, sit down for 45 seconds and three paragraphs come tumbling out (of course too much to go proofread and spellcheck. So I have to put up with the occasional clowns that have no other skill other than to catch some typo and assume they have some superior knowledge of the English language. LOL). Oh well, let them have something to make their miserable lives a tiny bit better.

 

[THE HCP]

HOF....... you might be the only one on here more famous then the HCP!

 

[jlprk]

I thought you took off for BBB...If you go, the whole house of cards caves in!

 

[THE HCP]

This place would die without me! Denny begged me too stay.

 

[jlprk]

I beg you to learn how to spell to! And how to count, too!

 

[BrianFromWA]

"masturbating while eating a banana?"

Step One: Sign him to almost an LMA deal.
Step Two: Look like geniuses in 18 months.

Bynum got just about a max contract extension with a 4th-yr team option coming off a 32-game season and a more troubling injury history than Oden. Goodness, Darko's been a bust for 7 years and just got 4/20. The production of a healthy Oden will always be valuable in this league, and the promise of that kind of production (even for half a season) is more than enough for teams to take chances on. And his skillset is such that he can be productive without athleticism in the worst-case scenario.

 

[KingSpeed]

I wish he was right about Oden's career averages over 82 games. Alas, he is wrong. Oden's stats are 9.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, & 1.4 bpg.

 

[BBert]

All of Oden's past injuries appear to be unrelated. If Oden is injury free next season, I don't see how that gives any indication that he won't be injured the year after, or the year after, or the year after. The same is true for every player in the NBA. If the Blazers conclude Oden is healthy before the deadline, I say they should lock him up for the best price they can negotiate, complete with the maximum allowable games-played incentives (whatever that's called).

 

[gatorpops]

This place would die without me! Denny begged me too stay.

So, if we make ourselves indispensable to this board (not just our wives) does Denny pay and how much?
I knew their was some collusion being wrought on here, just didn't realize how much. smile

 

[HailBlazers]

Greg Oden >>>>>> David Lee

So At Least 6 yrs 80 million