Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blazers"

[Nikolokolus]

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/09/15/...o-shine-light-on-blazers-oden-decision/#cntnt

Kevin Durant is a better player than Greg Oden.

I know. Shocking information, right? Hard-hitting news, that's what I'm bringing you at the moment. And trust me, the whole "they play completely different games" argument isn't lost on me. But the gap is simply too wide between their respective contributions, even when Oden is healthy (you know, the five minutes that happens per year) to believe anything else.

Thing is, it wasn't obvious when those two were drafted consecutively back in 2007. It pretty much boiled down to which one you'd watched more often, and which school of thought you subscribed to, at the time. In Filip Bondy's book on the 1984 draft, "Tip-Off: How The NBA Draft Changed Basketball Forever," Bondy discusses how Michael Jordan would forever alter a fundamental NBA drafting belief: "You always take the big man." Jordan's world-changing abilities would set a new corollary to the draft manifestos of GMs and fans. "Always take the big man, unless some other guy is insanely good at putting the little round thing through the circle thing." But after spending a decade trying to find the next Airness, the traditional thought regained its momentum. And with Oden's combination of not only height but brawn, he was an ideal candidate for the traditionalists, along with those that believe in drafting for need, except in the rarest of circumstances.

And just like with Jordan, there was simply no way to know Durant would be this good.

But word has already come out that Oden may not be ready for the start of the season. He's "progressing" as he has been since nearly every single season. Meanwhile, Durant has just finished setting records in FIBA world play, after leading the NBA in scoring, and showing improvement that has nothing to do with MRIs. This isn't an indictment of Oden. It's a testament to what Durant has shown himself to be. Even Oden's productive moments are tempered with limitations that have had nothing to do with his health. He certainly hasn't had the requisite time to progress in the pro game. But again, the problem isn't Oden. It's how incredible Durant has been.

Oden would need to be one of the most dominant defensive players in the paint, and have a nice hook shot to match Durant. And to be sure, Oden's shown flashes of both of those elements. But Durant's just been that bright of a star. As frustrating as it may be for Oden and Blazer fans, the two will always be compared. Barring a significant shift in the winds of both their career sails, it's Durant who will own the seas.

I know, I know, just what everybody wanted to read; yet another Durant v. Oden article. What can I say it's a slow news day in September and this is Blazers related, so take it for what it's worth.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Its worth KP getting fired over

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

showing improvement that has nothing to do with MRIs.

Ba-zing!

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Yawn.

Wake me up when OKCity has won a championship. Actually, I'll already be awake because we'll have won first.

 

[e_blazer]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Only two things will stop this kind of drivel:

1. Greg shows up, stays healthy and helps the Blazers win a bunch of titles; or

2. The fates are unkind to Durant and he has his own health issues that limit his career.

In the first instance, even if it's true that Durant is the better overall player, it could be said that Oden is the more significant piece in winning a title. In the second instance, and I certainly hope it doesn't happen, it would be shown that not all of the crap that happens in the NBA happens to the Trail Blazers.

Absent one of those events, he's right, and no matter how correct the decision seemed at the time, picking Greg goes down with Bowie over Jordan in the lore of NBA draft pick history.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

If Greg can stay healthy and develop into a 7-foot Ben Wallace, Kevin Durant will be a distant thought.

 

[BGrantFan]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Only two things will stop this kind of drivel:

1. Greg shows up, stays healthy and helps the Blazers win a bunch of titles; or

2. The fates are unkind to Durant and he has his own health issues that limit his career.

In the first instance, even if it's true that Durant is the better overall player, it could be said that Oden is the more significant piece in winning a title. In the second instance, and I certainly hope it doesn't happen, it would be shown that not all of the crap that happens in the NBA happens to the Trail Blazers.

Absent one of those events, he's right, and no matter how correct the decision seemed at the time, picking Greg goes down with Bowie over Jordan in the lore of NBA draft pick history.

I don't really think it's drivel. It was actually a fair assessment of the 2007 draft, IMO. The writer did not dog Oden, but he also pointed out how Durant, at age 21, led Team USA to a world championship, while Greg has struggled both off the court with injury and on the court with foul trouble (he insinuated the latter). Oden vs. Durant is always going to be a part of the Blazer story, whether we as fans want to accept it or not, and whether Oden wins multiple titles and MVPs or not.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

everyone knew Durant would be this good. I don't know why everyone is acting so shocked about it. He was the college player of the year and MVP of the McDonalds all american game....Oden, however, was injured but took his team to the national championship game.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

There's no debate between KD and Oden, it's not a close comparison.

However, the OKC/Portland debate bugs me.

Thunder: 50-32 -- They didn't have a single injury to their key core players.

Blazers: 50-32 -- Injuries, need I say more?

 

[e_blazer]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

I don't really think it's drivel. It was actually a fair assessment of the 2007 draft, IMO. The writer did not dog Oden, but he also pointed out how Durant, at age 21, led Team USA to a world championship, while Greg has struggled both off the court with injury and on the court with foul trouble (he insinuated the latter). Oden vs. Durant is always going to be a part of the Blazer story, whether we as fans want to accept it or not, and whether Oden wins multiple titles and MVPs or not.

IMO, this whole discussion is in the drivel category because it was known at the time of the draft that Durant's game was NBA-ready while Oden was more of a project. Until Greg has a chance to play and mature as a player, nobody knows what his ceiling is. Speculation at this point in time with incomplete data is just that...speculation; aka drivel.

 

[jlprk]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

4 Durant-Oden threads ago (it was about the day before yesterday), I made fun of the threads for being semiweekly. Little did I know that they'd be daily this week.

I am unsurprised at how well Durant turned out. It was well-known that he wasn't an average 2nd pick in the draft--that like Oden, he had superstar written all over him.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

As frustrating as it may be for Oden and Blazer fans, the two will always be compared.

That's not frustrating at all. What's annoying is the constant barrage of "Give it up, guys, this one's over" articles/commentary, when the players are age 22. It's not rational or informed, it's just a desire to push a narrative.

And if their career trajectories do change, none of these writers will say, "As usual, I rushed to judgment and lthe price I pay is to look hasty and ignorant." It's easy to be extreme and conclusive when you don't accept any accountability down the line for what you said in the past.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

While I hate to even add to such a repetitive, worthless thread. How can anyone have any credibility when he hasn't even done any homework. He directly states that Oden has played 5 minutes per year, which is well over 100-times off from his real numbers. And to make it even worse, he obviously hasn't done any research of Per36 or defensive analytics when he's stating obvious trash that that even with both are on the floor "their respective contributions are too wide a gap". Are you kidding me? Are you telling me there is a wide gap between a healthy Durant playing 82 games for 35 mpg at his current offensive level (with middle-of-the-road defense, poor passing skills, and no killer instinct to win big games) over a healthy Greg Oden for 82 games and 35 mpg with his dominating defensive level that lowers opponents scoring over 4 ppg just by his imposing presence alone in the paint (let alone his statline for playing healthy Durant 35 mpg minutes of 15/15/3). That is almost worthy of banning that blogger if I were running that site.

 

[MickZagger]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

While I hate to even add to such a repetitive, worthless thread. How can anyone have any credibility when he hasn't even done any homework. He directly states that Oden has played 5 minutes per year, which is well over 100-times off from his real numbers. And to make it even worse, he obviously hasn't done any research of Per36 or defensive analytics when he's stating obvious trash that that even with both are on the floor "their respective contributions are too wide a gap". Are you kidding me? Are you telling me there is a wide gap between a healthy Durant playing 82 games for 35 mpg at his current offensive level (with middle-of-the-road defense, poor passing skills, and no killer instinct to win big games) over a healthy Greg Oden for 82 games and 35 mpg with his dominating defensive level that lowers opponents scoring over 4 ppg just by his imposing presence alone in the paint (let alone his statline for playing healthy Durant 35 mpg minutes of 15/15/3). That is almost worthy of banning that blogger if I were running that site.

Use paragraphs. Your hard to read.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

We need to save these all somewhere so when we win a ring with Oden we can rub these trash pieces into the glorified blogger's faces.

 

[Blaz06Draft]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

See my post at http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/9/12/1684146/greg-odens-on-court-performance.

It analyzes advanced statistics, which indicate that when he has been on the court, he has been one of the two best players to enter the league this decade, that he compares favorably to the greatest centers of the last thirty years, and that he compares favorably to the greatest rebounders of all time. This indicates that if he can be relatively injury-free, and get his fouling under control, he just might be that once in a generation center he was hyped to be.

The following summarizes Oden’s performance on the court to date:

* Greg Oden is one of the two best players to come into the NBA in the last ten years according to comprehensive advanced statistics. (Hint: the other is LeBron).
* Greg Oden’s second year advanced stats compare favorably with those of the all-time great centers of the last thirty years: Shaq, David Robinson, Hakeem (and Dwight Howard).
* Greg Oden's rookie year rebounding compares well with the rookie years of some of the greatest rebounders of all time.
* Greg Oden was a top five big man – or better – when he was on the court last year.
* Greg Oden’s 2009-2010 advanced statistics compare well with those of three-time NBA all-star, two-time NBA defensive player of the year, three-time all-NBA team member Dwight Howard.
* Greg Oden was ranked higher in more advanced statistical categories last year than NBA scoring leader Kevin Durant, the 1st team all-NBA team player the Trail Blazers could have taken instead.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

See my post at http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/9/12/1684146/greg-odens-on-court-performance.

It analyzes advanced statistics, which indicate that when he has been on the court, he has been one of the two best players to enter the league this decade, that he compares favorably to the greatest centers of the last thirty years, and that he compares favorably to the greatest rebounders of all time. This indicates that if he can be relatively injury-free, and get his fouling under control, he just might be that once in a generation center he was hyped to be.

The following summarizes Oden’s performance on the court to date:

* Greg Oden is one of the two best players to come into the NBA in the last ten years according to comprehensive advanced statistics. (Hint: the other is LeBron).
* Greg Oden’s second year advanced stats compare favorably with those of the all-time great centers of the last thirty years: Shaq, David Robinson, Hakeem (and Dwight Howard).
* Greg Oden's rookie year rebounding compares well with the rookie years of some of the greatest rebounders of all time.
* Greg Oden was a top five big man – or better – when he was on the court last year.
* Greg Oden’s 2009-2010 advanced statistics compare well with those of three-time NBA all-star, two-time NBA defensive player of the year, three-time all-NBA team member Dwight Howard.
* Greg Oden was ranked higher in more advanced statistical categories last year than NBA scoring leader Kevin Durant, the 1st team all-NBA team player the Trail Blazers could have taken instead.

And unfortunately all of that won't mean a damn thing if he can't stay healthy enough to actually -- you know -- be a productive player.

 

[jlprk]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Classic post, though.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

And unfortunately all of that won't mean a damn thing if he can't stay healthy enough to actually -- you know -- be a productive player.

Thank goodness we have these new, daily threads on Oden...otherwise you'd never have had a chance to express that position.

Imagine if we just waited til we have some new information, like a new season, and then revisited the topic. Crazy, but it could work.

 

[BBert]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Fuck you Matt Moor. And the horse that rode in on ya.

 

[santeesioux]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Fuck you Matt Moor. And the horse that rode in on ya.

Yeah!

 

[Targus]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

While I hate to even add to such a repetitive, worthless thread. How can anyone have any credibility when he hasn't even done any homework. He directly states that Oden has played 5 minutes per year, which is well over 100-times off from his real numbers. And to make it even worse, he obviously hasn't done any research of Per36 or defensive analytics when he's stating obvious trash that that even with both are on the floor "their respective contributions are too wide a gap". Are you kidding me? Are you telling me there is a wide gap between a healthy Durant playing 82 games for 35 mpg at his current offensive level (with middle-of-the-road defense, poor passing skills, and no killer instinct to win big games) over a healthy Greg Oden for 82 games and 35 mpg with his dominating defensive level that lowers opponents scoring over 4 ppg just by his imposing presence alone in the paint (let alone his statline for playing healthy Durant 35 mpg minutes of 15/15/3). That is almost worthy of banning that blogger if I were running that site.

Lucky for us, you're not. Goodness, you're a painful read! I do like and appreciate your opening sentence, however...
Oden and Durant do have a wide gap in respective contributions.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Oden and Durant do have a wide gap in respective contributions.

Over the entire season, definitely, since Oden played much, much less. When both are actually on the floor...that's a lot less clear.

 

[BGrantFan]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Over the entire season, definitely, since Oden played much, much less. When both are actually on the floor...that's a lot less clear.

Well, other than the fact that Durant is asked to be the franchise player, and Oden is asked to grab rebounds and block shots. Their respective contributions must also take into account what each player is asked to do, IMO.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Well, other than the fact that Durant is asked to be the franchise player, and Oden is asked to grab rebounds and block shots. Their respective contributions must also take into account what each player is asked to do, IMO.

I don't think it's particularly relevant what they're asked to do...all that's relevant to me is what they actually do. Oden may not be asked to be a scorer, but he's been a very efficient one and that has added a lot of value when he's on the floor, as are the double-teams he generates despite not being "asked" to be a scorer.

 

[Targus]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Curious...how often do those double-teams occur? If Oden is on the floor 30% of the time....then he gets the ball on 20% of possessions...then sees a double on half of those possessions...are we talking like, what, once or twice a game?

 

[THE HCP]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

He was doubled 90% of the time he touched the ball!

 

[Minstrel]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Curious...how often do those double-teams occur? If Oden is on the floor 30% of the time....then he gets the ball on 20% of possessions...then sees a double on half of those possessions...are we talking like, what, once or twice a game?

Oden was on the floor 24 MPG, so he was on the floor half the time. The other numbers aren't easy to get from the net, but from observation, your guesses seem wildly off to me. Oden got the ball far more than once per five possessions when he was on the floor. It seemed that he got the ball at least half of the possessions, if not an outright majority. He simply didn't shoot it that much.

Finally, I have no idea whether HCP's number (90%) is based on actual video evaluation, but he drew double-teams a lot when he had the ball. Significantly more than 50% of the time, IMO.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

Oden was on the floor 24 MPG, so he was on the floor half the time. The other numbers aren't easy to get from the net, but from observation, your guesses seem wildly off to me. Oden got the ball far more than once per five possessions when he was on the floor. It seemed that he got the ball at least half of the possessions, if not an outright majority. He simply didn't shoot it that much.

Finally, I have no idea whether HCP's number (90%) is based on actual video evaluation, but he drew double-teams a lot when he had the ball. Significantly more than 50% of the time, IMO.

Agreed. Actually. Oden played roughly 25+ MPG, just happens he was in for a few minutes in the game where his patella gave way and it counts against the total bringing his mpg down, but that's sort of irrelevant, just thought I'd mention it.

He was double-teamed roughly 90% of the time that the ball got into him in the post, which was about 70%-90% of the trips down the court (even though as Minstrel mentioned he rarely shot it). So it isn't anywhere near a few times a game, but more like 90% of the 80% of the times it comes into him for the 55% of the minutes he's on the floor, or 35%-40% of a full 48 minute game.

Yao was about the only matchup that I can remember where he didn't physically dominate the defender and need a double-team. Trying to remember if there was anyone else that they didn't bring help for, maybe Shaq?

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Matt Moor at NBA Fanhouse: "Kevin Durant's Star Continues to Shine Light on Blaze

We need to save these all somewhere so when we win a ring with Oden we can rub these trash pieces into the glorified blogger's faces.

The Pistons won a ring with Darko but they still should've drafted Wade.