McCain has terrible day in polls

[Minstrel]

Today's Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support

This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.

The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama.

We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.

Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.

To find good news for McCain, you have to go South -- to the deep South -- where new polling in Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana suggests that those states have yet to become competitive.

As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html

 

[Денг Гордон]

I have the race at 317 to 157.

http://www.donkeyelephantrace.com/2008/10/horse-race-10-23-08.html

This is amazing, I thought for sure this would end up being a close election, but it seems to be moving rapidly in the direction of an Obama blow out.

 

[barfo]

Things are certainly going Obama's way lately, that's for sure. No need to worry about hanging chads this year.

barfo

 

[MickZagger]

The Republicans are chirping like crickets to this thread.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Another Ohio poll out early this morning, and I believe from a poll with a significant republican lean shows Obama up 10.

McCain declaring war on the Republican party's conservative base is going to sink him into a bigger landslide, as Republicans aren't going to turn out. I think it was Karl Rove who called McCain a moron and other bad things.

Obama seems poised to win all of the swing states. Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, North Dakota, Colorado, and Nevada all to Obama it looks like.

But the question is how big does this blowout become? Montana seems like fertile ground, as some polls show Obama with the lead and Ron Paul has sizeable support in that state. Georgia, Obama is down close, is leading in early voting, and the Bob Barr factor is in play there too.

Those are the only 2 states I think he can expand the map on. Maybe in Arizona if things get really bad with McCain over the next 2 weeks.

 

[CelticKing]

How come I never get called for a poll? Or no one that I know, either from work, or school, or family members, or people I know from my country.

 

[huevonkiller]

How come I never get called for a poll? Or no one that I know, either from work, or school, or family members, or people I know from my country.

I doubt that, even so it doesn't matter.

Whether the polls are tainted or not, I wouldn't question the general spread they are presenting. Especially those like Rasmussen.

 

[MARIS61]

How come I never get called for a poll? Or no one that I know, either from work, or school, or family members, or people I know from my country.

Maybe they've read your posts?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Since I would call my self a "soft" Obama supporter (not wild about him and numerous disagreements on policy, but I see him as a better alternative to McCain/Palin) I can say that I wouldn't put too much stock in the Polls. I think he'll probably win, but I doubt the margin of victory in the popular vote will be greater than a 3% to 4% spread. I have a feeling that many (especially working class whites in the rust belt) will balk at voting for a black man when it actually comes down to pulling the lever in the polling booth.

 

[CelticKing]

Maybe they've read your posts?

Could be.