Mid Season Analysis - Blazers will not make it past first round

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BlazerManiac

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This team has been the tail of two seasons up until the Miami game, and since the Miami game when Portland lost at home to Miami. Prior to that game Portland was 24-5.

OK, I have been quite on this board for a while, but after watching last night’s game against Minnesota and when Minnesota is missing three players that score 60% of their points and Portland still has problems beating them I do not see Portland making it past the first round.

The league got educated at the Miami game with the defense Miami played which was aggressively playing the jump shot. Starting with the Miami game Portland is 12-10 so basically they have played .500 Ball for ¼ of the season.

There are four glaring issues which will prevent Portland from getting past the first round or even make the playoffs.

1. They live and die by the jump shot;
2. They do not play defense;
3. They do not play in the paint;
4. Lack of bench scoring.

Now at this point some think I will blame Batum, well not is not the case, there is enough blame to share at this point. Where has Lillard been driving into the paint and getting free throws? Yes Batum has been inconsistent and his untimely turnovers; Yes Aldridge is getting his points, but isn’t it time for him to set the example when he shoots his jump shot to follow up on his own rebound instead of assuming his shot is going to drop: Wes, when his jump shots are not dropping why is he not wreaking havoc in the paint; and where is Stott in all of this in not coaching the Blazers to correct these issues which made them virtually unbeatable in the first 29 Games.

Bottom line, they better figure something out, as if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, in the west they will not make the playoffs.

Enough Said!
 
They might make it past the first round, but I don't see them going deep in the playoffs. No team is perfect, but this starting lineup is one of the best in the NBA, the blazers just lose ground when the bench is in.

I'd like to see some adjustments in how they guard the pick and roll. They seem to either give up a free lane to the hoop or give up this wide open mid range jumpers. LA needs to play closer to the hoop. I also think Portland should crash the defensive boards every play. They don't score many fast break points anyway, so they may as well not give up offensive rebounds. They go through these phases where they just give up a maddening amount of OReb.
 
if they play .500 the rest of the season, they'd be 51-31 (or there-abouts).

To MISS the playoffs (which is a possibility), these teams would have to go these #'s, to win 52 games. I figure that is easier than calculating who has the tie breakers, etc..

Memphis, currently 9th in the conference with a record of 27-22, would have to go 25-8
Denver, currently 10th and with a record of 24-25, would have to go 28-5
Minnesota, currently 11th and a record of 24-27, would have to go 28-3
Pelicans, currently 12th with a record of 22-27, would have to go 30-3

So if Portland went .500 the rest of the season, teams would have to have an INSANE improvement from their first portion of the season, to pass Portland up. Maybe Memphis could go 25-8, but Denver isn't going 28-5, Minnesota isn't going 28-3 and New Orleans isn't going 30-3.
 
That is assuming Portland does not continue to implode!

you said "as if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, in the west they will not make the playoffs."

I'm not sure if 12-10 is "imploding"
 
I have a bad feeling that Stotts and Olshey have decided that they have "done enough" for one season. Getting HCA or advancing to the 2nd round just aren't priorities.
 
I have a bad feeling that Stotts and Olshey have decided that they have "done enough" for one season. Getting HCA or advancing to the 2nd round just aren't priorities.

Really? I have felt like fans and management alike have always thought is it second round or bust this year.
 
Poor English and poor 1st post. I award you no points and may wheels have mercy on your soul
 
12-10 isn't .500 first of all. Second, you're picking and choosing which games to look at. We struggled a little last night but what about our win in SA? Or our win in OKC? Both were in the 12-10 stretch. Why don't you use that game to judge us? Is OKC not making playoffs since they lost to Orlando? Or what about GS's home loss to the Bobcats? The Warriors are more likely to miss the playoffs. Yes we started 24-5 but were you expecting them to win 65 games? Miami lost to Jazz last night. Will they miss playoffs?
 
If we play at 12-10 rate, we will finish at 53-29. That is good enough for playoffs. I think we'll do better than that though.
 
This team will sweep the first round with ease.

The OP wasted a lot of time posting an untrue analysis that is in no way supported by their record.
 
I saw blazermaniac and thought blazerfanatic but after reading I'm thinking carlito
 
Also, our bench had a breakout game last night. They might start contributing more now that CJ has gained confidence.
 
Also, our bench had a breakout game last night. They might start contributing more now that CJ has gained confidence.

I noticed cj was beasting I need to watch the replay since I was asleep till 15seconds left in 4th
 
Also, during the 12-10 stretch we BEAT Minnesota with Martin, Love, and Pekovic. We beat them by 11 points.
 
1. They live and die by the jump shot;
2. They do not play defense;
3. They do not play in the paint;
4. Lack of bench scoring.

1. For the most part this is true. But so does 28 or so other NBA teams.
2. Sure they do. It just isn't our specialty and I agree this needs to improve.
3. Lack of a scoring center and stronger SF.
4. Well, let us say it isn't consistent.

Overall we have made great strides this season and I'm nit going to cry about where we are. We have had a great turn around and had to give up nothing for it. Not many teams can do that. And I have little doubt we will get better this off season as well.

As for the playoffs, I think we will make the second round or conference finals.
 
Lack of a scoring center? Lopez averages double figures and he dropped 17 points on the DPOY.
 
What's more important than all that is that every Western Conference playoff contenders seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on and we are getting weaker.

I would suggest putting it into perspective. Look how they have faired against the elite teams of the league this year. How they have performed against the Indys, SA's, OKC's etc. They have held their own and then some. As a matter of fact, their record is a winning one. The team right now is a lil tired. I believe they are a group for the last three weeks that has been playing for the All Star break due to this instead of just playing. I think they are stronger and better than what they have played. I also think after all star break they will redirect their focus and make another playoff run and or division run. Management needs to give the starters some help. If the starters are this tired going into the playoffs as they are apparently are going into all star break. They prob won't win a series. They need help. Not in August of this year. Now. The window is open now IMO.
 
What's more important than all that is that every Western Conference playoff contenders seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on and we are getting weaker.

not sure that 'every' WC playoff team is getting stronger. The Spurs have 1 less loss than Portland, and lost Manu for a while (and I think Splitter). The teams below Portland haven't exactly caught fire (Memphis not withstanding).

Outside of OKC, no one is really playing all that great, even OKC is relying on Durant big time to win games.


Not saying they don't need improvement, they do...and so NateBishop3 doesn't ride my balls, I'M TALKING ABOUT THE BLAZERS HERE.
 
not sure that 'every' WC playoff team is getting stronger. The Spurs have 1 less loss than Portland, and lost Manu for a while (and I think Splitter). The teams below Portland haven't exactly caught fire (Memphis not withstanding).

Outside of OKC, no one is really playing all that great, even OKC is relying on Durant big time to win games.


Not saying they don't need improvement, they do...and so NateBishop3 doesn't ride my balls, I'M TALKING ABOUT THE BLAZERS HERE.

They are in the bottom 3 for Western Conference teams in the last 10 games. But...I still kind of think based on what I had seen from them earlier this season, they are coasting into all star break to prevent burn out later in the season. Which would show signs from a group with a pretty big bbiq. Which I think they have starting with LA.

1 Oklahoma City 41 12 .774 - 23-3 18-9 8-5 24-8 105.1 97.5 +7.5 Won 1 8-2
2 San Antonio 37 14 .725 3 18-8 19-6 8-3 22-9 103.9 97.3 +6.5 Won 1 5-5
3 Portland 36 15 .706 4 19-5 17-10 8-2 19-11 108.0 103.5 +4.5 Won 1 5-5
4 LA Clippers 35 18 .660 6 21-4 14-14 5-4 19-9 106.4 100.8 +5.7 Won 1 6-4
5 Houston 34 17 .667 6 21-7 13-10 9-4 19-14 105.3 101.4 +3.9 Won 5 8-2
6 Phoenix 30 20 .600 9 ½ 17-8 13-12 7-3 19-13 105.1 101.8 +3.3 Won 1 7-3
7 Golden State 30 21 .588 10 15-9 15-12 7-4 19-16 103.1 99.1 +4.0 Lost 1 5-5
8 Dallas 30 21 .588 10 18-8 12-13 8-4 17-15 104.6 102.3 +2.4 Won 4 6-4
 
They are in the bottom 3 for Western Conference teams in the last 10 games. But...I still kind of think based on what I had seen from them earlier this season, they are coasting into all star break to prevent burn out later in the season. Which would show signs from a group with a pretty big bbiq. Which I think they have starting with LA.

1 Oklahoma City 41 12 .774 - 23-3 18-9 8-5 24-8 105.1 97.5 +7.5 Won 1 8-2
2 San Antonio 37 14 .725 3 18-8 19-6 8-3 22-9 103.9 97.3 +6.5 Won 1 5-5
3 Portland 36 15 .706 4 19-5 17-10 8-2 19-11 108.0 103.5 +4.5 Won 1 5-5
4 LA Clippers 35 18 .660 6 21-4 14-14 5-4 19-9 106.4 100.8 +5.7 Won 1 6-4
5 Houston 34 17 .667 6 21-7 13-10 9-4 19-14 105.3 101.4 +3.9 Won 5 8-2
6 Phoenix 30 20 .600 9 ½ 17-8 13-12 7-3 19-13 105.1 101.8 +3.3 Won 1 7-3
7 Golden State 30 21 .588 10 15-9 15-12 7-4 19-16 103.1 99.1 +4.0 Lost 1 5-5
8 Dallas 30 21 .588 10 18-8 12-13 8-4 17-15 104.6 102.3 +2.4 Won 4 6-4

so, 3 teams have significantly better records over the last 10 vs Portland, and everyone else is in the same boat.
 
This team has been the tail of two seasons up until the Miami game, and since the Miami game when Portland lost at home to Miami. Prior to that game Portland was 24-5.

OK, I have been quite on this board for a while, but after watching last night’s game against Minnesota and when Minnesota is missing three players that score 60% of their points and Portland still has problems beating them I do not see Portland making it past the first round.

The league got educated at the Miami game with the defense Miami played which was aggressively playing the jump shot. Starting with the Miami game Portland is 12-10 so basically they have played .500 Ball for ¼ of the season.

There are four glaring issues which will prevent Portland from getting past the first round or even make the playoffs.

1. They live and die by the jump shot;
2. They do not play defense;
3. They do not play in the paint;
4. Lack of bench scoring.

Now at this point some think I will blame Batum, well not is not the case, there is enough blame to share at this point. Where has Lillard been driving into the paint and getting free throws? Yes Batum has been inconsistent and his untimely turnovers; Yes Aldridge is getting his points, but isn’t it time for him to set the example when he shoots his jump shot to follow up on his own rebound instead of assuming his shot is going to drop: Wes, when his jump shots are not dropping why is he not wreaking havoc in the paint; and where is Stott in all of this in not coaching the Blazers to correct these issues which made them virtually unbeatable in the first 29 Games.

Bottom line, they better figure something out, as if they play .500 ball the rest of the way, in the west they will not make the playoffs.

Enough Said!

Just thought I'd let you know to get to Miami's fan site, you go down the hall, turn left, third door on the right! Go Blazers!
 
I have a bad feeling that Stotts and Olshey have decided that they have "done enough" for one season. Getting HCA or advancing to the 2nd round just aren't priorities.

I have a feeling if a trade exists that makes the team better this year, but also in the future, Olshey would pull the trigger. I don't think you'll see something idiotic like trading Batum for Deng (an UFA after the season), which may or may not make the team better this year, and who knows what would happen next year.
 
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so, 3 teams have significantly better records over the last 10 vs Portland, and everyone else is in the same boat.

Plus, Portland has played 9 out of their last 13 games on the road.

They now hit a stretch where 8 of the next 10 are at home. This is the time for them to get on another roll.
 
Pacers lost to Magic. Guess they won't make playoffs either.
 
Teams usually have their worst stretch right before the break, or right after.

Considering our schedule, and the fact our worst was better than most teams' best, I'm very optimistic about our playoff chances provided the bench gets more minutes between now and then.
 
So, the world is ending because we struggled in the second night of a back-to-back, at the end of a 4-game road trip - but won the game? How about taking the team with the league's best record to OT on the road the night before? Does that not get considered at all?
 
I have a bad feeling that Stotts and Olshey have decided that they have "done enough" for one season. Getting HCA or advancing to the 2nd round just aren't priorities.

Just noticed this.

Then quit playing the starters so many minutes and putting them at risk at season and career ending injuries.

Needless to say, I don't agree with this.
 

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