Might already be too late for McCain

[Minstrel]

While the idea is that McCain has had this week and weekend to tighten the race, early voting changes the equation a lot. It appears that in some major states, most of the voting has already taken place...and it took place while Obama has had this big lead.

I doubt McCain is going to materially close the gap prior to the actual election day, but even if he does, Obama has already banked a lot of votes that McCain can no longer influence.

Our model does not make any specific adjustments for early voting, but it is presenting a major problem for John McCain in three states in the Mountain West region, where Barack Obama has a huge fraction of his vote locked in.

In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What's worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald's turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.

Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccains-mountain-of-problem.html

Colorado may already be out of play. That's pretty bad news for McCain.

 

[DaRizzle]

sweet....Ive been hearing about the huge lead all this time but now its time to ACTUALLY get those votes...glad its off to a good start!

 

[crowTrobot]

 

[DaRizzle]

^JINX!!!!! Delete that!

 

[julius]

Never assume that anything is done when it involves the Democrats. They could find a way to lose a 1 man foot-race.

 

[Minstrel]

Never assume that anything is done when it involves the Democrats. They could find a way to lose a 1 man foot-race.

Nothing is assumed. It's just that early voting is further reducing McCain's chances of a miracle.

In general, I'd agree with you that Democrats are masters of the come-from-ahead loss. But Obama actually seems to be organized, smart and efficient. Nothing is guaranteed, but Obama is doing everything necessary to take away McCain's victory possibilities.

 

[julius]

Nothing is assumed. It's just that early voting is further reducing McCain's chances of a miracle.

In general, I'd agree with you that Democrats are masters of the come-from-ahead loss. But Obama actually seems to be organized, smart and efficient. Nothing is guaranteed, but Obama is doing everything necessary to take away McCain's victory possibilities.

I meant the post with the fat lady singing. I hope you're right, but I'm a Blazer fan and a Democrat...if we can blow it, we can find a way.