Mike Conley Jr?

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Sounds like Memphis would be willing to deal him, should we be looking into it? I know it's starting to feel like we shouldn't bet much on Greg (or accomodating him), but is Conley a nice possible fit at PG (who can shoot better than Bayless)?

I'm not sure what we'd give up (other than Bayless) so it might not make a whole lot of sense, but sounds like Memphis is kind of thinking of playing Mayo more at 1 (would Bayless fit better next to him?)

What about a possible three way? Sounds like the Grizz are interested in Roger Mason Jr...
 
We are still paying Sergio's salary. Maybe we can ask Sacramento to send him there... ;)

I think this ship has sailed for us.
 
Why would Portland be interested in Conley? After flirting with mediocrity last season, he's regressed back to being solidly below average.

For full disclosure, I wasn't enamoured of him as a prospect out of college...but I haven't seen anything so far to suggest I was wrong. Bayless is younger and more productive and (in my opinion) has a higher upside.
 
He is a much better shooter than Bayless that's for sure, and he might look nice in a more defined offensive scheme. I think his ability to fit with Rudy/Roy/Batum etc long term is better than Bayless'.
 
He is a much better shooter than Bayless that's for sure, and he might look nice in a more defined offensive scheme. I think his ability to fit with Rudy/Roy/Batum etc long term is better than Bayless'.

I generally agree with you and the dilemma is that Bayless may have a good bit more upside but will he get there?
 
Nah, despite some promising signs in the second half of last season he appears to be headed for a pretty mediocre career.
 
If Conley plays better defense than Bayless, then we should think about getting him. It seems to be our biggest longterm need is a pg who can defend the other quick PG's in the West. I think he is also a better distributor and a better rounded scorer than Bayless. Too bad we're all out of expiring contracts and also no longer have Memphis' favorite Travis. In fact I wonder if Clippers might try to trade Outlaw for Conley at this point. Then try to deal Blake for something else, maybe a draft pick.
 
It's an interesting question. Conley gets to the Free Throw line twice as much as Blake (but who doesn't), and he's a better passer than Blake. He's a better shooter and much, much better passer than Bayless, but Bayless' future is still sky-high. Way too much upside on Bayless left to risk trading him. He isn't going anywhere.

It will be interesting to see how Pritchard fills that 15th Roster spot, especially with Roy's hamstring in question for the rest of the season.
 
It's an interesting question. Conley gets to the Free Throw line twice as much as Blake (but who doesn't), and he's a better passer than Blake. He's a better shooter and much, much better passer than Bayless, but Bayless' future is still sky-high. Way too much upside on Bayless left to risk trading him. He isn't going anywhere.
I'm not advocating trading Bayless for Conley but it's interesting that you talk about Bayless' future being sky high. Conley is only one year older, has a longer wingspan, substantially better vertical and a better lane agility score. Maybe he has some room for improvement also.
 
It's an interesting question. Conley gets to the Free Throw line twice as much as Blake (but who doesn't), and he's a better passer than Blake. He's a better shooter and much, much better passer than Bayless, but Bayless' future is still sky-high. Way too much upside on Bayless left to risk trading him. He isn't going anywhere.
I'm not advocating trading Bayless for Conley but it's interesting that you talk about Bayless' future being sky high. Conley is only one year older, has a longer wingspan, substantially better vertical and a better lane agility score. Maybe he has some room for improvement also.

Bayless has had very few minutes in his short NBA career to grow.

Conley's had 5459 minutes.
Bayless has had 1534 minutes.

Conley's minutes have been of the quality type while much of Bayless' minutes have been short spurts where often he's been asked to stand on the 3-point arc and do something he's not yet capable of doing in his career....hit the three. (Nate's so stupid sometimes, and Nate's stunted Bayless' growth since Bayless has been here. It's so good that Blake is finally gone, so Bayless can finally learn how to play in the NBA.)

Kevin Pritchard thinks exactly like I do when it comes to basketball. Everything he's done, I would have done, and everything I've wanted done, he's done. So, I'm pretty sure that Bayless is still untouchable this season and this summer. Until Bayless gets some real playing time and some significant minutes that proves he can't be what Pritchard wants him to be, he's going to remain a Blazer.

Bayless' ability to get opponent's in foul trouble and to take pressure off of Brandon Roy, while making everyone around him more open (because of the collapse of the defense when he drives), is the type of asset that wins Championships.

Bayless' only problem in his very, very short career has been Nate McMillan. That's because Nate has put Bayless in positions to fail. Nate's stupid "hand the ball to LaMarcus or Brandon and everyone else stand on the 3-point arc and watch" style of basketball has been killing this team, and killing Brandon Roy, shortening Roy's career. It almost cost us the game against the Clippers as Nate's butthole got tight when the Clippers were rallying and Nate went to that stupid Offense of his again leading to a 5-point lead by the Blazers. The Blazers called a timeout, ran something "different" for a change, a Marvin Webster drive to the basket off a Aldridge pick, and Webster turned it into a 3-point play, an 8-point lead, and the beginning of an 11-0 run to put the game away.

When Bayless gets to the 4000 minute mark of his career (the end of the 2011-2012 season), he's going to be a dynamic player. He also will be a .340+ 3-point shooter by then as he'll have two more seasons to work on his jumper. It takes several years in the NBA before someone can become a 3-point shooter. It doesn't happen naturally during your first couple of years in the league.

That's how I see Bayless. And, I know that's how Pritchard sees Bayless. It's Nate that's the problem right now with Bayless.
 
I'm not advocating trading Bayless for Conley but it's interesting that you talk about Bayless' future being sky high. Conley is only one year older, has a longer wingspan, substantially better vertical and a better lane agility score. Maybe he has some room for improvement also.

Conley is the better point guard and always will be as far as he and Bayless are concerned. But, Conley isn't physical enough. Conley doesn't take the pressure off of Roy. Roy really needs to have pressure taken off of him. He's not going to last long in the NBA as it is. Lengthening his career is important.

Bayless will be "good enough" at handling the ball that he and Roy can split the point guard duties depending on the situation with each of them averaging 5 assists per night. We'll always have a 3rd Guard involved. This year and next year it's Andre Miller, so we're set perfectly for this. And, Rudy's better than Bayless now, too, so he's got to be out there.
 
Kevin Pritchard thinks exactly like I do when it comes to basketball. Everything he's done, I would have done, and everything I've wanted done, he's done.

Wait--I thought you wanted him to trade Outlaw and a bag of basketballs for Marc Gasol. And I thought you also wanted him to trade Przybilla and year's supply of Nikes for Elton Brand. Did those deals get done when I wasn't paying attention?
 
Wait--I thought you wanted him to trade Outlaw and a bag of basketballs for Marc Gasol. And I thought you also wanted him to trade Przybilla and year's supply of Nikes for Elton Brand. Did those deals get done when I wasn't paying attention?

Yes, I did, and Pritchard got an even better deal done. I just didn't think there was any team willing to take Steve Blake. But, then there's always the Clippers.

Pritchard made the "ideal" trade....getting rid of both Outlaw and Blake....addition by subtraction, and he got a better player in return than Brand or Gasol (for this year). My scenarios would have taken care of next year and the year after, also. But, Pritchard lowered the team salary for next season, giving them great flexibility in the Free Agent market they've been waiting 3 years to get ready for.

Obvioulsy, Pritchard has the advantage of being able to speak to other G.M.'s, and Mike Dunleavy was most gracious.
 
Yes, I did, and Pritchard got an even better deal done. I just didn't think there was any team willing to take Steve Blake. But, then there's always the Clippers.

Pritchard made the "ideal" trade....getting rid of both Outlaw and Blake....addition by subtraction, and he got a better player in return than Brand or Gasol (for this year). My scenarios would have taken care of next year and the year after, also. But, Pritchard lowered the team salary for next season, giving them great flexibility in the Free Agent market they've been waiting 3 years to get ready for.

Obvioulsy, Pritchard has the advantage of being able to speak to other G.M.'s, and Mike Dunleavy was most gracious.

OMFG--you just said that Marcus Camby is a better player than Marc Gasol? Seriously? Thanks for confirming my opinion of your vast basketball knowledge. :biglaugh:
 
OMFG--you just said that Marcus Camby is a better player than Marc Gasol? Seriously? Thanks for confirming my opinion of your vast basketball knowledge. :biglaugh:

If you're too stupid to know that right now Camby is better than Gasol, than you prove my point. edited
 
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OMFG--you just said that Marcus Camby is a better player than Marc Gasol? Seriously? Thanks for confirming my opinion of your vast basketball knowledge. :biglaugh:

For his career? Easily. One guy was the #1 pick the NBA draft and played a major role in a team that went to the finals, as well as having been named to multiple all defensive teams, and being named defensive player of the year. Get back to me when Gasol has done any of those things.
 
For his career? Easily. One guy was the #1 pick the NBA draft and played a major role in a team that went to the finals, as well as having been named to multiple all defensive teams, and being named defensive player of the year. Get back to me when Gasol has done any of those things.

For his career, obviously. At this moment in time, no way in hell.
 
For his career, obviously. At this moment in time, no way in hell.

Why is it "no way in hell?" They're similar in PER. If one believes Camby is a better defender, one could easily rate Camby the superior player. Camby's DRtg is certainly much better.

Of course, win shares has Marc Gasol ahead. I think they're pretty similar caliber players and it doesn't seem startling for someone to rate one ahead of the other.
 
Why is it "no way in hell?" They're similar in PER. If one believes Camby is a better defender, one could easily rate Camby the superior player. Camby's DRtg is certainly much better.

Of course, win shares has Marc Gasol ahead. I think they're pretty similar caliber players and it doesn't seem startling for someone to rate one ahead of the other.

Well, I assumed that it was understood that Gasol was a borderline all-star, and Camby was...not. Gasol is clearly the superior offensive player, but maybe I'm underestimating Camby's defensive impact. So, just for kicks, I looked a bit deeper via 82games. The most comprehensive stats are PER, win%, on/off court (+/-), and simple rating.

Simple rating
Gasol +8.3
Camby +4.9

Win%
Gasol 60.8%
Camby 48.0%

PER as C, as PF
Gasol 22.1, 24.3
Camby 21.7, 20.8

Opponent PER as C, as PF
Gasol 18.2, 11.9
Camby 19.3, 18.4

Clutch Win%
Gasol 58.3%
Camby 47.4%

On/off court: off, def, total
Gasol +10.4, -3.8, +14.2
Camby +3.4, -4.3, +7.7

Yes, Camby has greater impact defensively, but only slightly; in fact, Gasol's apparently a better man defender, but Camby's help defense is great. However, Gasol's impact on the offensive end is so much greater than Camby's that his presence in the lineup results in twice as large an improvement in point differential than Camby's does.

I'm sorry, but the numbers are very clear--Camby's good, but Gasol is significantly better right now.
 
Yes, Camby has greater impact defensively, but only slightly; in fact, Gasol's apparently a better man defender, but Camby's help defense is great. However, Gasol's impact on the offensive end is so much greater than Camby's that his presence in the lineup results in twice as large an improvement in point differential than Camby's does.

I'm sorry, but the numbers are very clear--Camby's good, but Gasol is significantly better right now.

The numbers are clear if you put a lot of stock in +/- (and the related concept of win%), but I don't and few statistical analysts do in samples short of multiple seasons.

If you use PER as a good proxy for production and DRtg as a good estimation of defense, as I noted before, Camby comes out ahead.

Gasol PER: 19.9
Camby PER: 18.5

Gasol DRtg: 107
Camby Drtg: 100

So Gasol has a slight edge in PER but Camby has a large one on defense.

This (your post and mine), to me, doesn't show that it's "clear" who's better. It suggests that they're pretty close and whom you regard as better depends on which statistical models you favour.
 
The numbers are clear if you put a lot of stock in +/- (and the related concept of win%), but I don't and few statistical analysts do in samples short of multiple seasons.

If you use PER as a good proxy for production and DRtg as a good estimation of defense, as I noted before, Camby comes out ahead.

Gasol PER: 19.9
Camby PER: 18.5

Gasol DRtg: 107
Camby Drtg: 100

So Gasol has a slight edge in PER but Camby has a large one on defense.

This (your post and mine), to me, doesn't show that it's "clear" who's better. It suggests that they're pretty close and whom you regard as better depends on which statistical models you favour.

You're using one individual stat for overall production, and one team-performance stat for defense, but being disingenuous by ignoring the same team-performance stat for offense

Gasol ORtg: 122
Camby ORtg: 111

Camby may have a large edge on defense, but by the same "statistical model" Gasol has a much larger edge on offense. DRtg is damn near the ONLY "statistical model" which favors Camby, which is not surprising considering who Gasol's teammates are.

Also, you're ignoring the opponent PER stats as well, especially those which show that Gasol is vastly superior defensively at the center position (most of Camby's minutes this year have come at the PF spot).
 
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You're using one individual stat for overall production, and one team-performance stat for defense, but being disingenuous by ignoring the same team-performance stat for offense

Not being disingenuous, just using the stats I generally like (not for this particular comparison, just in general). I prefer individual stats for offense, but not for defense since defense has both an individual and a team component.

Gasol ORtg: 122
Camby ORtg: 111

Camby may have a large edge on defense, but by the same "statistical model" Gasol has a much larger edge on offense. DRtg is damn near the ONLY "statistical model" which favors Camby.

If we want to be purist about "statistical models" (without mixing numbers from different systems) then ORtg/Drtg see them are pretty similar, as does PER.

I don't, actually, consider Camby better. But I think they're pretty similar and I don't think your implication that Gasol is clearly and significantly superior is right (so much better, in fact, that it's ridiculous to consider Camby better).
 
Not being disingenuous, just using the stats I generally like (not for this particular comparison, just in general). I prefer individual stats for offense, but not for defense since defense has both an individual and a team component.

Are you suggesting that defense has a team component, but offense does not?

If we want to be purist about "statistical models" (without mixing numbers from different systems) then ORtg/Drtg see them are pretty similar, as does PER.

ORtg/DRtg has Gasol at +15, Camby at +11. That's a pretty big difference. If you see a 36% differential as "pretty similar", then I can't help you.

I don't, actually, consider Camby better. But I think they're pretty similar and I don't think your implication that Gasol is clearly and significantly superior is right (so much better, in fact, that it's ridiculous to consider Camby better).

I understand how, if you happen to focus on just the two measures you favor, that you might come to that conclusion. I prefer a more comprehensive approach. To each his own, I guess.
 
Are you suggesting that defense has a team component, but offense does not?

I'm suggesting that the vast majority of a player's offensive/rebounding contributions are captured by individual metrics. Defense has a much, much larger component that can't be captured by individual metrics.

There is some offensive effect that is not captured by individual measures, but capturing that generally takes something like Adjusted +/-, which requires multiple seasons of data to be particularly reliable.

I understand how, if you happen to focus on just the two measures you favor, that you might come to that conclusion. I prefer a more comprehensive approach.

Well, of course I'm going to use the ones I think are best. If by "comprehensive" you mean factoring in lesser measures, then yes, I prefer a less comprehensive approach.
 

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