More Crazy Rumors!

[Mediocre Man]

Ricky Rubio... CP3 and Magic-like? wow.. Those are quite lofty expectations. Basically Rubio could potentially be the MVP of the NBA?

You mean he hasn't already been named MVP of the league next year?

 

[Mediocre Man]

We don't expect Aldridge to get hurt. Or Roy to miss the year with a knee injury.

Shit happens, and I think it's stupid to give away future chances on the off chance that nothing bad will happen this year.

Ed O.

Ed, isn't that also a reason to try and win now though as well?

 

[Ed O]

I don't consider Rubio even close to Paul or Magic. Those are very high expectations, Ed, even with the "prospect" caveat you were sure to include.

No doubt.

No doubt that they ARE high expectations, and no doubt that you aren't quite willing to agree with me on them. Haha.

Both consensus #1 players. Why is Rubio slipping to #5 if he is a once-in-a-generation talent?

To be fair to me, I said once-in-a-generation European. I don't think that he's superior to Chris Paul, who's in his generation.

As to why he's not #1: PGs rarely go number one. Ask Chris Paul (#4 overall in spite of a good track record and lots of expectations/hype).

Further, Rubio has potential contract issues, he has options unlike those of most top prospects (in terms of simply never coming to the NBA) and the top couple of teams appear to be quite unappealing to him.

You said the Blazers should get him if they have any chance. Short of you being specific, I have to assume you feel Rubio is a franchise/title type player and a future MVP.

I can definitely see him becoming that, yes.

Next year, at age 18? Almost certainly not. Three or four years from now? If he's not an all-star I will be moderately surprised.

I don't see it, and I don't see how anyone looking at what he's "accomplished" in Europe can feel that way.

He's a unique player in the history of basketball... he has been playing against grown men since before he turned 15, and he has never disappointed at any step of his career.

I don't see how anyone can look at his career to date and NOT see how he might be a special, special player.

Ed O.

 

[Ed O]

Ed, isn't that also a reason to try and win now though as well?

I would rather have a current all-star now than a future all-star... because I'm looking at the net present value of players, discounting future production.

The current team COULD win it all if a key piece is added and if nothing horrible happens. I just don't want to bank on that alone. I'd prefer to add the best possible piece(s) in terms of net present value, because I think that will give us the best return over time.

Adding a future stud might not pay off in the next year or two, but adding a veteran might not pay off in the next year or two, either. There are no guarantees.

And, to address the injury question in terms of wanting to win now: while the odds of a player getting hurt for a significant chunk of the season are low, they are MARKEDLY higher than that same player having a career-ending (or even career-impairing) injury. I'd just tend to rather not put all my eggs into the "win now" basket.

Ed O.

 

[Erroneous Subterfuge]

This team should not try to win now at the expense of the future when its core is still a few years away from being at its prime.

The window for the Blazers is now open. That’s a fact. Even the owner knows it. Even if our core is not in their prime, the window is nevertheless open. That means that starting THIS year, as a GM and owner you need to put your best foot forward and go for it.

The current team COULD win it all if a key piece is added and if nothing horrible happens. I just don't want to bank on that alone.

Adding a vet like Kirk or Andre in no way mortgages our future. In fact, it would take less to get one of them than it would to get Rubio, who could end up being just another young hype machine like Telfair, and nothing more. He is hardly a can't-miss prospect, and comparing him to CP3 or Magic is lunacy. Let’s say we deal Travis/Blake for Kirk. Well that only leaves us with Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Joel, Rudy, Batum, Webster, Bayless, the best owner in the NBA, and KP… I gotta tell you, the future still looks pretty fucking bright… so we'd hardly be banking on that alone as you say.

It seems to be a popular perception on here that we’re trying to make a dynasty and so therefore a measly 1 or 2 championships would be disappointing somehow… You’d think for a fan-base that has 1 championship in it’s history, that we of all people would realize just how hard it is to get ONE championship, let alone several. There’s always going to be other teams with a Lebron, or a Kobe, that stands in your way. To expect our team to be head and shoulders over everyone for the good part of a decade is incredibly delusional. We've a got a core that can contend for years to come, but we need toughness and we need experience in order to win now. I’m not saying let’s go all Trader-Bob and have double the salary of other teams, just to go for it. If we don’t win it all this year, you step back in the off season, evaluate, and go for it again next year.

But for you dynasty dreamers, let’s take a look at past dynasties. The Celtics in 56-57 to 68-69. They kept a core group of guys, but the rest of their roster was constantly evolving. The only guy to win all 11 championships was Russell. Guys like Tom Heinsohn, Bob Cousy, & Frank Ramsey turned into John Havlicek, Bailey Howell, and Sam Jones. The Lakers won five times in the 80’s. Only Kareem, Magic, and Michael Cooper were there for #1 & #5. Their two leading scorers in 87-88 weren’t even around when it began. The Michael Jordan dynasty… By the time #4 was won, half-way through their dynasty, only Jordan and Pippen were still on the team.

It’s great to have a full roster of guys I genuinely like, but only a handful of them will still be around in 6 years, win or lose. Hopefully our core guys, but beyond that is doubtful. That’s just the nature of the NBA. We have no idea what we’ll be faced with in two years, so it’s absolutely dumb to say

This team should not try to win now at the expense of the future when its core is still a few years away from being at its prime.

When A) We can win now, given our core and tradable assets B) We wouldn’t have to trade away our core to win now C) Once our guys reach ‘their prime’, we have no idea how our team, other teams, the league, or even the economy will look. We have no idea who we could draft, trade for, or sign in two years, let alone 4. We have no idea about injuries, coaching changes, or even GM changes. There is never going to be some mythical perfect time to go for it, so you go for it every year your window is open and you don’t look back.

What you DO NOT DO, is trade your assets (that could be used to win now) for some scrawny, unproven PG who wouldn't even be able to help for another few years.

Adding a future stud might not pay off in the next year or two, but adding a veteran might not pay off in the next year or two, either. There are no guarantees.

Nothing's guaranteed, that's why if you have the chance to win now, you better try.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I think a lot of this is a moot point. IMO, the article hinted that we are going for both Kirk Hinrich and Ricky Rubio.

 

[Freshtown]

The window for the Blazers is now open. That’s a fact. Even the owner knows it. Even if our core is not in their prime, the window is nevertheless open. That means that starting THIS year, as a GM and owner you need to put your best foot forward and go for it.



Adding a vet like Kirk or Andre in no way mortgages our future. In fact, it would take less to get one of them than it would to get Rubio, who could end up being just another young hype machine like Telfair, and nothing more. He is hardly a can't-miss prospect, and comparing him to CP3 or Magic is lunacy. Let’s say we deal Travis/Blake for Kirk. Well that only leaves us with Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Joel, Rudy, Batum, Webster, Bayless, the best owner in the NBA, and KP… I gotta tell you, the future still looks pretty fucking bright… so we'd hardly be banking on that alone as you say.

It seems to be a popular perception on here that we’re trying to make a dynasty and so therefore a measly 1 or 2 championships would be disappointing somehow… You’d think for a fan-base that has 1 championship in it’s history, that we of all people would realize just how hard it is to get ONE championship, let alone several. There’s always going to be other teams with a Lebron, or a Kobe, that stands in your way. To expect our team to be head and shoulders over everyone for the good part of a decade is incredibly delusional. We've a got a core that can contend for years to come, but we need toughness and we need experience in order to win now. I’m not saying let’s go all Trader-Bob and have double the salary of other teams, just to go for it. If we don’t win it all this year, you step back in the off season, evaluate, and go for it again next year.

But for you dynasty dreamers, let’s take a look at past dynasties. The Celtics in 56-57 to 68-69. They kept a core group of guys, but the rest of their roster was constantly evolving. The only guy to win all 11 championships was Russell. Guys like Tom Heinsohn, Bob Cousy, & Frank Ramsey turned into John Havlicek, Bailey Howell, and Sam Jones. The Lakers won five times in the 80’s. Only Kareem, Magic, and Michael Cooper were there for #1 & #5. Their two leading scorers in 87-88 weren’t even around when it began. The Michael Jordan dynasty… By the time #4 was won, half-way through their dynasty, only Jordan and Pippen were still on the team.

It’s great to have a full roster of guys I genuinely like, but only a handful of them will still be around in 6 years, win or lose. Hopefully our core guys, but beyond that is doubtful. That’s just the nature of the NBA. We have no idea what we’ll be faced with in two years, so it’s absolutely dumb to say



When A) We can win now, given our core and tradable assets B) We wouldn’t have to trade away our core to win now C) Once our guys reach ‘their prime’, we have no idea how our team, other teams, the league, or even the economy will look. We have no idea who we could draft, trade for, or sign in two years, let alone 4. We have no idea about injuries, coaching changes, or even GM changes. There is never going to be some mythical perfect time to go for it, so you go for it every year your window is open and you don’t look back.

What you DO NOT DO, is trade your assets (that could be used to win now) for some scrawny, unproven PG who wouldn't even be able to help for another few years.



Nothing's guaranteed, that's why if you have the chance to win now, you better try.

Great points, well said. Repped.

 

[Ed O]

The window for the Blazers is now open. That’s a fact. Even the owner knows it. Even if our core is not in their prime, the window is nevertheless open. That means that starting THIS year, as a GM and owner you need to put your best foot forward and go for it.

I disagree. Even assuming our window is "open" (and I don't really think that it is, personally... everything would have to go right for us to overtake more experienced teams in the next year), I'd rather have a longer window than a short one. Adding younger top-tier prospects lengthens the window, while moving young players for experienced one shortens it.

I'd rather have a window with Roy and Aldridge and Oden as the core three or four years from now, when they will all be more mature physically and (presumably) significantly better players than a window that ends three or four years from now.

If we can acquire a top-tier prospect AND a veteran? That's great. If we have no chance at a top-tier prospect? Then adding a veteran now has no opportunity cost.

I am taking the position that if we have the chance to get Rubio, even if it "sets us back" a year or two, I think it's worth it for the long-term strength of the franchise, and we would not be wasting a "prime year" of Roy because he is still so young.

Ed O.

 

[MAS RipCity]

I don't care if the draft is weak or strong... I consider Rubio to be the best PG prospect since Chris Paul, and one of the best since Magic Johnson.

If you think Rubio is the "flavor of the month", then you haven't been paying attention to NBA prospects over the last three or four years. Rubio has been considered a can't-miss prospect along the lines of James and Oden.

Which definitely does NOT guarantee anything, but is markedly different from some international prospects (like Tskitishvilli and even Darko).

Ed O.

Then why the hell is he not going #1 and teams drooling at the thought of getting him? Why is no one making a strong push to obtain him?
Best PG prospect since Paul? Blasphemy, he wasn't even the best pg prospect in the last year. Rose's value as a prospect was much higher than Rubio's.

 

[Natebishop3]

Then why the hell is he not going #1 and teams drooling at the thought of getting him? Why is no one making a strong push to obtain him?
Best PG prospect since Paul? Blasphemy, he wasn't even the best pg prospect in the last year. Rose's value as a prospect was much higher than Rubio's.

Last time I checked, Chris Paul and Deron Williams went third and fourth, respectively. Not even Chris Paul went #1, so basing Rubio's potential on where mock drafts have him slated is a mistake.

 

[Ed O]

Then why the hell is he not going #1 and teams drooling at the thought of getting him? Why is no one making a strong push to obtain him?

This has been covered in three or four other posts. I'll let you read them rather than re-type it.

Best PG prospect since Paul? Blasphemy, he wasn't even the best pg prospect in the last year. Rose's value as a prospect was much higher than Rubio's.

Rose was considered a top prospect for two years or so. Compare that to James and Rubio and Oden, who were on the radar for four years. That is why I lumped Rubio in with those players.

As for Rose being a better PG prospect than Rubio? I don't agree with that. Rose might not even end up playing PG as his career progresses. He's certainly not a passing PG along the lines of Paul and Magic and Rubio.

Ed O.

 

[MAS RipCity]

Who cares if you are a passing pg or scoring pg, there are both pg's and Rose will be a point his whole career. This whole "pure" pg thing is getting out of hand and turning into an urban legend.

 

[RoyToy]

As for Rose being a better PG prospect than Rubio? I don't agree with that. Rose might not even end up playing PG as his career progresses. He's certainly not a passing PG along the lines of Paul and Magic and Rubio.

Ed O.

That's because he's more of a Tony Parker type PG than a Chris Paul/Magic PG. I do think however Derrick Rose is a better passer than Parker.

I'm not really sure how you came to the conclusion Rose may not be a PG as his career progresses, and am curious to hear your explanation.

 

[Erroneous Subterfuge]

I disagree. Even assuming our window is "open" (and I don't really think that it is, personally... everything would have to go right for us to overtake more experienced teams in the next year),

Any year you win the championship will require that pretty much everything goes right when it matters. It would this year, and it will in five years. That's hardly a reason to not try and win it all anyways.

I'd rather have a longer window than a short one. Adding younger top-tier prospects lengthens the window,

Depends on which ones. I don't think Rubio is a franchise level player, I don't even think he'll ever make the allstar team.

while moving young players for experienced one shortens it.

Depends on which ones. If they're not going to be part of our core anyways, then why not move a young player? And it's not like we're talking about adding Mutombo or something, these vets still have several years left in the league.


I think you just overvalue Rubio, and undervalue what we could be without him.

 

[Ed O]

Any year you win the championship will require that pretty much everything goes right when it matters. It would this year, and it will in five years. That's hardly a reason to not try and win it all anyways.

It's not binary.

It's not, like, suddenly your window is open... or it's not open.

If we consider that a team needs to have a "10" season in order to win it all, and we start with some baseline value with a +/- based on luck or variance or whatever, I'd prefer to have a higher baseline with our core players than building up around the core prematurely and hoping that the +/- is weighed heavily in our favor.

Depends on which ones. I don't think Rubio is a franchise level player, I don't even think he'll ever make the allstar team.

Well there you go, then. Guess we'll wait and see.

Depends on which ones. If they're not going to be part of our core anyways, then why not move a young player? And it's not like we're talking about adding Mutombo or something, these vets still have several years left in the league.

What veterans are you talking about? What veterans that you see us getting would be impaired by using those young bench parts to get Rubio?

I think you just overvalue Rubio, and undervalue what we could be without him.

I have every confidence that Portland will be a top-5 team within the next two or three years, whether we add another young part or not. I think that Oden is going to emerge into a tremendous force and I am a big Bayless fan.

I just don't think that it will happen THIS YEAR, and I don't think that Portland will ever be in such a great position to add another potentially great young piece without disrupting this core. Further, the timing is great... adding a teenag stud prospect five years from now would definitely not help the Roy window remain open (because Roy would be done by the time the player is at his peak), but if we added one now, it would extend it for several years, IMO.

Ed O.

 

[Natebishop3]

It's not binary.

It's not, like, suddenly your window is open... or it's not open.

If we consider that a team needs to have a "10" season in order to win it all, and we start with some baseline value with a +/- based on luck or variance or whatever, I'd prefer to have a higher baseline with our core players than building up around the core prematurely and hoping that the +/- is weighed heavily in our favor.



Well there you go, then. Guess we'll wait and see.




What veterans are you talking about? What veterans that you see us getting would be impaired by using those young bench parts to get Rubio?



I have every confidence that Portland will be a top-5 team within the next two or three years, whether we add another young part or not. I think that Oden is going to emerge into a tremendous force and I am a big Bayless fan.

I just don't think that it will happen THIS YEAR, and I don't think that Portland will ever be in such a great position to add another potentially great young piece without disrupting this core. Further, the timing is great... adding a teenag stud prospect five years from now would definitely not help the Roy window remain open (because Roy would be done by the time the player is at his peak), but if we added one now, it would extend it for several years, IMO.

Ed O.

I agree Ed. I have been pretty solidly in the "add veterans" camp, but I also recognize that the addition of a Rubio would further strengthen our nucleus for years to come. I want to win now, but I'm not willing to mortgage the future simply because we made the playoffs.

 

[oldmangrouch]

You know, this is begining to remind me of last summer, when some people were seriously arguing that we should trade LMA to Miami for the chance to draft Beasley.

Not long ago, I was pretty enthusiastic about Rubio. That feeling is waning by the day. The more people hype him up, the more skeptical I become. Call me contrarion, call me a cynic, call it a case of "Odenitis"....but I am not willing to trade the present for some vague hope that an 18 year old kid will someday be an MVP candidate.

Long time Blazer fans have endured enough. We deserve a team that is doing its' best to win! I won't speak for anybody else, but I am hitting the limits of my loyalty and patience.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

You know, this is begining to remind me of last summer, when some people were seriously arguing that we should trade LMA to Miami for the chance to draft Beasley.

Those weren't the same people. Beasley was always a terrible defender and hugely overrated.

Not long ago, I was pretty enthusiastic about Rubio. That feeling is waning by the day.

It's one of those signs of old age. You'll find enthusiasm about everything except perhaps where to get a cheap meal and telling your grandchildren how it was different in the old days will continue to decline.

The more people hype him up, the more skeptical I become. Call me contrarion, call me a cynic, call it a case of "Odenitis"....but I am not willing to trade the present for some vague hope that an 18 year old kid will someday be an MVP candidate.

Can we call you a boring old fart?

Simple solution: walk away from the boards until after the draft. Repeat after me: Pritchard is going to do what he's going to do, and nothing that is bouncing around the internet is going to affect him. If you don't enjoy reading it, then DON'T READ IT.

Long time Blazer fans have endured enough. We deserve a team that is doing its' best to win! I won't speak for anybody else, but I am hitting the limits of my loyalty and patience.

My God, you sound like you've lived through the Blitz or something. Get a grip!

 

[LittleAlex]

Beasley overrated and Rubio isn't? Just a few posts up someone compared Rubio to Magic Freaking Johnson! That is damn near as bad as calling him "The Next Jordan".

Rubio is now completely fucked. It honestly doesn't matter now what he does. If he doesn't vie for league MVP in a few years, he will be a disappointment to these same lunatics. What if he comes into the league, has a great handle, is a good defender but never gets a consistent jumper? As it stands now, he will get shit on. Sad really.

 

[hasoos]

Last time I checked, Chris Paul and Deron Williams went third and fourth, respectively. Not even Chris Paul went #1, so basing Rubio's potential on where mock drafts have him slated is a mistake.

Last I checked, both of those guys as rookies, would have kicked Rubios ass. The only reason Rubio is up high in this draft, is because this draft sucks. The more I hear about Rubio, the more I am thinking about Andre Bargiani. This is the type of shit that lead up to Bargiani going #1.

Hype: Check
Superhype: Check
Good scouting of him: Nope
Workouts here in the states: Nope.
Complete game: Nope.
Lot's of clips of him on Utube: Yep
Start on his European team: Nope.

Sound familiar? If you fail to learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.

These are all of the types of things that lead to a Euro going #1 that should have gone in the 2nd round. It amazes me how the parrellel with Bargiani and that draft are adding up. This should raise some alarms, that at least account for making the management team considering him a bit more. Let's be clear here though. I am not saying Rubio isn't going to be a good player. I just think it is a lot more sketchy than a lot of you do. When Rudy was coming into the league, I knew a lot about him because I had watched him, and knew he was good. Not just olympics. Euro games. Now I haven't taken the time to do the same for Rubio, so maybe if I watched some games I would be impressed. But IMO, when you are taking a top 5 pick, they should be ready to go for the most part right out of the gate. From what I am seeing with Rubio, I don't think he is ready to roll out of the gate, he will need like 3 years, at least.

He needs to develope a shot.
He needs to cut down on early game turnovers
He needs to learn how to function in a half court game.

The only way I see him getting around those things, is if Mike D'Antoni is his coach, because the system will be up tempo. Then he will just be one of those guys who goes to the playoffs and loses every year because the up tempo game doesn't work in the playoffs.

 

[RR7]

Bargnani should have gone in the second round? Gimme a break. No, he shouldn't have been picked ahead of Roy, that's for sure. Don't kid yourself into thinking he shoudl have been a 2nd round pick. He's still a talented player, and not nearly as bad as many like to put him down as. What is true about him is he wasn't as ready to contribute immediately to his team as some of the other players selected after him. He's not as good as Roy, and never will be, so some could look at that as a blunder.

As for your assesment of Rubio, because you yourself haven't scouted him, do you take that to mean an NBA team has not as well? You managed to watch tapes of Rudy because we selected him, and had a year to wait on him. I'm guessing if we select Rubio, and he stayed in Europe for one more year, you woudl do the same for him. You seem to try to guess a lot about his game for admittedly not watching him at all. I am not syaing he is ready to contribute immediately to a championship level team, or at elast, not ready to start on one. If he was the ONLY move this offseason, with no addition of veteran talent anywhere, I would be somewhat upset with the offseason, but excited about his prospects.

 

[hasoos]

It looks like the Blazers went after Caron Butler recently. That is music to my ears.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/22/AR2009062202748.html

 

[hasoos]

Bargnani should have gone in the second round? Gimme a break. No, he shouldn't have been picked ahead of Roy, that's for sure. Don't kid yourself into thinking he shoudl have been a 2nd round pick. He's still a talented player, and not nearly as bad as many like to put him down as. What is true about him is he wasn't as ready to contribute immediately to his team as some of the other players selected after him. He's not as good as Roy, and never will be, so some could look at that as a blunder.

As for your assesment of Rubio, because you yourself haven't scouted him, do you take that to mean an NBA team has not as well? You managed to watch tapes of Rudy because we selected him, and had a year to wait on him. I'm guessing if we select Rubio, and he stayed in Europe for one more year, you woudl do the same for him. You seem to try to guess a lot about his game for admittedly not watching him at all. I am not syaing he is ready to contribute immediately to a championship level team, or at elast, not ready to start on one. If he was the ONLY move this offseason, with no addition of veteran talent anywhere, I would be somewhat upset with the offseason, but excited about his prospects.

Really what has he done to show that he is worthy of being a 1st round pick. I would like to hear this.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Beasley overrated and Rubio isn't? Just a few posts up someone compared Rubio to Magic Freaking Johnson! That is damn near as bad as calling him "The Next Jordan".

I hereby anoint Brandon Roy the next Messiah. Verily he can walk on water. Oh shit! Now Roy is overrated!

Rubio is now completely fucked. It honestly doesn't matter now what he does. If he doesn't vie for league MVP in a few years, he will be a disappointment to these same lunatics. What if he comes into the league, has a great handle, is a good defender but never gets a consistent jumper? As it stands now, he will get shit on. Sad really.

You're right. Except that you're not. Besides, if they're lunatics, they'll believe that he should be League MVP and it's only a massive conspiracy to keep him down that's preventing him. Y'see? Actually Rubio can't lose!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Last I checked, both of those guys as rookies, would have kicked Rubios ass.

You can see into the future? You know how Rubio's rookie year went? Give me some stock tips!

 

[andalusian]

Really what has he done to show that he is worthy of being a 1st round pick. I would like to hear this.

Nothing. But he should have been a top-10 pick which is not the 2nd round.

Rubio is not going to go 1st either... - but he is clearly a top-10 pick, probably top-5 if people do not lose their mind.

EDIT: My mistake, I thought you said why did he go 1st pick instead of 1st round pick... It is clear why he was a 1st round pick - as the people below noticed...

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Really what has he done to show that he is worthy of being a 1st round pick. I would like to hear this.

He's in the league and actually playing minutes. If you line up every player from each draft in diminishing order of contribution, there's always fewer than 30 that actually make it. Therefore he's worth a first round pick.

 

[RR7]

He's a 7 footer with 3 point range who put up over 15 and 5. He striggled his first two years, for sure. And I am not saying he is a great player, but look at 1st rounders every year. He easily, EASILY is a first round pick every year. It's an absolute joke to think he is only 2nd round talent.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

It looks like the Blazers went after Caron Butler recently. That is music to my ears.

Guess you don't care about defense then:

Jamison had only 25 blocks in 3,096 minutes and his -472 plus/minus was one of the three worst in the league. I could’ve put teammate Caron Butler here, too. Gave him a break.

 

[LameR]

It looks like the Blazers went after Caron Butler recently. That is music to my ears.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/22/AR2009062202748.html

If Washington wasn't willing to include Butler in a trade for Amare, I think it might be tough for us to get him. Although, we do have the bonus of being able to take on some salary.