Most likely Blazer to be traded as of today

[BoomChakaLaka]

[ranking of players with the highest-to-lowest trade potential]:


Just curious as to how everyone feels about "Who is the most likely player to be traded?" This is just a slightly different take on the typical "trade idea" Thread.

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Several factors played into my rankings (and note, the entire roster was ranked from "most likely to be traded" to "least likely."


Factors:

Past play

Recent play

Contract Status!!

Postion (1 - 5)

Team "Need" short term/long term

Potential "need of other teams"


With the above considered, I chose RUDY as the number one candidate to be the "most likely to be traded," and Roy to be the least likely.

With my list of inactive players - same idea. Outlaw ranked as my most likely to be traded and Oden, the least likely.


I assume that (realistically) only "healthy" players will get moved in the short term. However, an injured player (perhaps?) might be part of a trade, etc.


Here are my Rankings:

In order: [of the healthy players] above factors considered:

Rudy #1

Blake #2

Miller #3

Webster #4

Cunningham #5

Howard #6

Pendergraph #7

Aldridge #8

Bayless #9

Roy #10



.... and of the injured, who is the most likely to be traded (above factors considered):


Outlaw #1

Pryzbilla #2

Mills #3

Batum #4

Oden #5

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Why Rudy over Blake?

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Why Rudy over Blake?

Simple!

Rudy will get us more of what we need;

Rudy is more expendable (not on an individual vs. individual basis - merely, looking at our roster and weighing out "Rudy's gain vs. loss" and looking at the same scenario with Blake.

Why is Blake at #2, might actually be another question: My answer: while trading Blake may net us a smaller return, than say Miller - - Blake's expiring contract then comes into play when making my ranking ahead of Miller.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

....and looking at the "injured list rankings"


why do I rank "Mills" as less likely to be traded than Pryzbilla?

1. He's about to become "healthy" while Pryz is out for perhaps an entire year!

2. Pryz has a soon-to-expire contract that may be attractive

3. Pryz will most likely never play to the same level as before

4. Mills is a true PG. And would be worth looking at before considering a trade at this time, over Pryzbilla.


I think it obvious why I chose Outlaw as the most likely to be traded of all of our injured players....and why I chose Oden as the least likely of the injured players to be traded.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Rudy to the Knicks

Lee to Washington

Butler to Portland


-------------------

Blake plus rights to Claver to Orlando

for Gortat



This follows along my "rankings" of trading our two most likely to be traded players to bring us pieces we need (now and for the future).

If we need to add more to the pot, we look at adding Outlaw and/or Pryzbilla, etc. and by adding Butler (SF) and Gortat (C), we can part with both.

 

[Nate Dogg]

My gut says Blake, just because of his half court offense and he hardly attacks the basket like miller does. At least miller will attempt to drive to the basket, get trapped and then kick it out to someone else who takes the shot.

 

[drexlersdad]

hmmm rudy for caron?? i think we could get him with out rudy depending on or willingness to take other salary as well

 

[Mediocre Man]

hmmm rudy for caron?? i think we could get him with out rudy depending on or willingness to take other salary as well

C'mon, you are better than this.

 

[drexlersdad]

C'mon, you are better than this.

what the fuck?

i really REALLY do think we can get him without rudy depending on our willingness to take on extra salary.

 

[julius]

Amazing the short attention spans people have, and how quickly they lift someone to heights. 4 good games and Blake is back in the good graces.

Rudy goes on the IR, and all the sudden he's trade bait. Why not trade the older guy who has pretty much peaked and isn't in his early 20's? I really doubt that who we could get for Rudy would be worth trading Rudy.

It's almost as bad as people already thinking Mills will be anything on this team. He hasn't proven jack shit, so let's not assume he's going to have a role just yet.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Rudy, Bayless, Batum are the players with high trade value (IMO). One of those players will be packaged with a throw in of Blake, Webster or Outlaw is my best guess.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

LA should be next to Roy considering his PPP status. Moving Bayless has a much higher probability.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Amazing the short attention spans people have, and how quickly they lift someone to heights. 4 good games and Blake is back in the good graces.

Rudy goes on the IR, and all the sudden he's trade bait. Why not trade the older guy who has pretty much peaked and isn't in his early 20's? I really doubt that who we could get for Rudy would be worth trading Rudy.

It's almost as bad as people already thinking Mills will be anything on this team. He hasn't proven jack shit, so let's not assume he's going to have a role just yet.

You are completely missing the point of the Thread:

It is not "who's your favorite Blazer" etc.

It is "who is most likely to be tradable" - - right now, (and put yourself in the shoes of other GM's and don't be a homer), RUDY has the highest degree of trade value from BOTH the perspetive of other teams as well as our own.


Do I want to trade RUDY? This is not the Thread for that. This is a "Ranking" of Most to Least likely to be traded....from all perspectives and weighing all factors.


To sum it up, I feel Rudy and Blake are the most likely to be traded (from the list of healthy or soon-to-return List) and I feel Outlaw and Pryzbilla would be the most likely to be traded (IF!) injured players were to be traded TODAY.


That is all this thread is about.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

My gut says Blake, just because of his half court offense and he hardly attacks the basket like miller does. At least miller will attempt to drive to the basket, get trapped and then kick it out to someone else who takes the shot.

Yes, I too RANK Blake higher than Miller in my "Most Likely to be traded" list!


I happen to RANK Rudy as even higher than Blake - as it pertains to overall "trade value"

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

hmmm rudy for caron?? i think we could get him with out rudy depending on or willingness to take other salary as well

Not a chance in hell.


It will take more than Rudy to obtain Butler.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Not a chance in hell.


It will take more than Rudy to obtain Butler.

The trouble is you don't know what the Wizards' goals are in a trade. At face value Rudy =/= Butler, but for a team that probably desperately needs to rebuild and get under the cap as soon as possible, shedding 10 million in guaranteed salary probably isn't a bad start, if they can get a good prospect on a cheap contract in the exchange that's probably closer to reality than you think.

In this case it would need to be Rudy, Blake and Travis for Butler to make the salaries work, and to give them the cap relief they need.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Rudy, Bayless, Batum are the players with high trade value (IMO). One of those players will be packaged with a throw in of Blake, Webster or Outlaw is my best guess.

Agree on your perspective of "trade value" but are these players the "most likely to be traded?"


Rudy ( I say yes. Because we have depth)

Bayless (he too is increasing in "value" - but are we going to part with him today? I say not as likely as other players, so I have Bayless down further on the list of "most likely to be traded")

Batum (well, as an injured player, this along drops his "value" - and if healthy today, I believe his value would be much higher, of course - but would the Blazers have him high on their list as "available?" I say not as likely as others above him on my Rankings!)


Again, this is not about "Highest Trade Value" - it is a list of "Most Likely To Be Traded" weighing as many factors as we can (Today!).

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Amazing the short attention spans people have, and how quickly they lift someone to heights. 4 good games and Blake is back in the good graces.

Rudy goes on the IR, and all the sudden he's trade bait. Why not trade the older guy who has pretty much peaked and isn't in his early 20's? I really doubt that who we could get for Rudy would be worth trading Rudy.

It's almost as bad as people already thinking Mills will be anything on this team. He hasn't proven jack shit, so let's not assume he's going to have a role just yet.

Understand the thread. All I'm asking of you.

 

[southnc]

Good discussion.

Rudy is a good trade, since his value is pretty good and chances of resigning him are not.

I still think Blake & Outlaw is the more logical package, since both are expiring and should bring back a decent big. And you would only lose one healthy body. It would also free up more time for Bayless, since Outlaw and Rudy would take some of his minutes upon their return.

Trading Bayless would get you good return. However, I would only trade him if you are absolutely sure he canNOT be a PG (read: tweener). However, his assist performance recently indicates otherwise. So, I think he should stay.

If you trade for a C, then you want someone temporary, like Camby, since Oden and Joel will likely be back next year. Otherwise, you would have to trade Joel for a longer-term prospect.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

LA should be next to Roy considering his PPP status. Moving Bayless has a much higher probability.

But LMA would obtain much more in return than Bayless. Therefore I placed LMA higher on my ranking of "Most likely to be traded" granted, very low on the list!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Good discussion.

Rudy is a good trade, since his value is pretty good and chances of resigning him are not.

If you trade for a C, then you want someone temporary, like Camby, since Oden and Joel will likely be back next year. Otherwise, you would have to trade Joel for a longer-term prospect.

I'm glad to see realistic approaches to Rudy; he's not going to resign with us, and we should extract value from the situation.

I think this season has shown, however, that we need to carry three centers on our roster, period. If we trade for a center, he should have enough gas left in the tank to play backup for 2 years, but not care about being Guy #15 and racking up the DNP-CD's.

 

[Nikolokolus]

But LMA would obtain much more in return than Bayless. Therefore I placed LMA higher on my ranking of "Most likely to be traded" granted, very low on the list!

You're confusing trade value with tradeability. CBA considerations are almost as important as talent in some cases. Because of this LMA is almost undtradeable.

 

[ABM]

Trading Bayless would get you good return. However, I would only trade him if you are absolutely sure he canNOT be a PG (read: tweener). However, his assist performance recently indicates otherwise. So, I think he should stay.

I'm still not convinced this team can't run efficiently/effectively utilizing a twin-tweener lineup - i.e. Bayless and Roy.

They both have adequate pg skills and their games seem to compliment each other. I've been witnessing that over the past few games.

 

[e_blazer]

The trouble is you don't know what the Wizards' goals are in a trade. At face value Rudy =/= Butler, but for a team that probably desperately needs to rebuild and get under the cap as soon as possible, shedding 10 million in guaranteed salary probably isn't a bad start, if they can get a good prospect on a cheap contract in the exchange that's probably closer to reality than you think.

In this case it would need to be Rudy, Blake and Travis for Butler to make the salaries work, and to give them the cap relief they need.

And the deal still wouldn't bring back the big man we need and would create a total logjam at the SF position once Batum gets back in February.

On the original subject of this thread, I think that it's pretty hard to evaluate what player or players are most likely to get moved without knowing the player KP would be targeting to figure out the needs of the team that we'd be making the deal with. I do agree that the general level of "analysis" that goes on around here ("Blanky sucks and he has to be traded") totally misses the point of what goes on in trade discussions. Teams generally figure out what they're looking to acquire first and then what players that they might be willing to give up in order to make the deal work.

Also, I think there's a chance that KP might make some move that doesn't involve a trade. He could look to sign a FA or bring over a Euro player. In that instance, the analysis of what player to cut becomes a different one than what player(s) to trade. You'd have to look at the likely relative future importance of each player to the team.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm still not convinced this team can't run efficiently/effectively utilizing a twin-tweener lineup - i.e. Bayless and Roy.

They both have adequate pg skills and their games seem to compliment each other. I've been witnessing that over the past few games.

I'm encouraged by Bayless' back to back 7 assist games, particularly the Denver game when he was getting all of his drives swatted into the fifth row by Birdman -- he adjusted and really started putting the ball on string, zipping passes to guys off of drives in optimal positions to shoot or drive.

The way the lineup won't work is if they both overlap too much and don't have enough differentiation in their games ... good thing we get to see an extended 30 or 40 game audition with those two in the backcourt now instead of having to guess.

 

[Nikolokolus]

And the deal still wouldn't bring back the big man we need and would create a total logjam at the SF position once Batum gets back in February.

On the original subject of this thread, I think that it's pretty hard to evaluate what player or players are most likely to get moved without knowing the player KP would be targeting to figure out the needs of the team that we'd be making the deal with. I do agree that the general level of "analysis" that goes on around here ("Blanky sucks and he has to be traded") totally misses the point of what goes on in trade discussions. Teams generally figure out what they're looking to acquire first and then what players that they might be willing to give up in order to make the deal work.

Also, I think there's a chance that KP might make some move that doesn't involve a trade. He could look to sign a FA or bring over a Euro player. In that instance, the analysis of what player to cut becomes a different one than what player(s) to trade. You'd have to look at the likely relative future importance of each player to the team.

I never said it was the trade to make, I was merely addressing the Rudy for Butler swap.

 

[julius]

You are completely missing the point of the Thread:

It is not "who's your favorite Blazer" etc.

If it was who is your favorite Blazer, I would've talked about Batum.

It is "who is most likely to be tradable" - - right now, (and put yourself in the shoes of other GM's and don't be a homer), RUDY has the highest degree of trade value from BOTH the perspetive of other teams as well as our own.

I think most trade able and most likely traded aren't the same. And your subject is "most likely to be traded", not most likely to be trade able.

Do I want to trade RUDY? This is not the Thread for that. This is a "Ranking" of Most to Least likely to be traded....from all perspectives and weighing all factors.

I think he's not likely to be traded. And outside of probably the usual suspects, he's probably the most trade able.

To sum it up, I feel Rudy and Blake are the most likely to be traded (from the list of healthy or soon-to-return List) and I feel Outlaw and Pryzbilla would be the most likely to be traded (IF!) injured players were to be traded TODAY.

I don't see how Joel would be the most likely to be traded.

That is all this thread is about.

In this very response you've addressed two different things. One is most likely traded, and the other is trade-able.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

I'm still not convinced this team can't run efficiently/effectively utilizing a twin-tweener lineup - i.e. Bayless and Roy.

They both have adequate pg skills and their games seem to compliment each other. I've been witnessing that over the past few games.

+1

We just need JB to keep improving on his outside game along with his penchant for playing defense with his hands.

I think Rudy might be in trouble once he gets healthy because it is a nightmare watching him trying to bring the ball up the court. JB does not have this problem and can be paired with Brandon at the guard spots.

 

[e_blazer]

I never said it was the trade to make, I was merely addressing the Rudy for Butler swap.

I didn't mean to say that you were supporting the trade. My comment was directed at the original trade proposal. I think the Blazers have more important issues now than improving their SF position.

 

[STOMP]

Joel Outlaw and Blake are on expiring contracts. In no particular order, they'd be the top three most likely to go if some team wants to hold a fire-sale. Because they're on cheap rookie deals with years left, I doubt Rudy Bayless or Batum are going anywhere soon. I really like how Bayless Rudy Roy and Nicolas project together 1-3 as they go forward and see little motivation for Portland to break that group up... unless someone is dangling a real talent.

STOMP