mook
The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen
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Thinking more about the wide-open offense the Blazers are probably going to play this year, I really think they need to take a long, hard look at Meyers at starting center once he's healthy. Several reasons:
1. He takes a lot of threes. This is going to drag a lot of defensive centers out of the paint. Pretty obvious, so I won't beat this to death.
2. Even when he doesn't take the three, he's standing there on the perimeter, which generally makes it much, much easier for him to transition into protecting the rim in transition than it does for a guy like Plumlee. Given how porous our perimeter defense is, that's kind of a big deal.
3. The year before last as a center he had a DRTG of 102. That was his best of his 4 seasons. It also would've easily been the best on the team if it happened last year. It was also the season where he stifled M Gasol in the playoffs. Meyers is a natural center. One who jacks threes, but still a center. He's tall, he's strong, and he's not mobile enough to defend stretch fours permanently in the modern NBA.
4. Plumlee is in a contract year. Meyers is sealed up long-term. If you have to pick one of those two guys to cement themselves as the permanent center this year, which would you rather go with? The short-armed, 6-10ish, 2 year older, poor free throw shooting Plumlee, or the 7-1, younger and three point shooting muscle-head of Meyers?
5. Bottom line: In the best case scenario of their careers, which of Plumlee or Leonard do you see being the starting center of a WCF team? Plumlee is a nice guy, a good passer, and a willing athlete. But in the end his arms are too short to defend the rim and his shooting is to poor to rely on in crunch minutes. A healthy Leonard upends the general defensive strategies of other teams.
I wrote a similar post like this last year around this time. (See below). It was also a lot Leonard Kool-Aid, so I guess you can call me a sucker for it. But I think there's still a lot of truth in what I said--although I've come around now to the realization that he's a center and not a power forward in the modern NBA.
1. He takes a lot of threes. This is going to drag a lot of defensive centers out of the paint. Pretty obvious, so I won't beat this to death.
2. Even when he doesn't take the three, he's standing there on the perimeter, which generally makes it much, much easier for him to transition into protecting the rim in transition than it does for a guy like Plumlee. Given how porous our perimeter defense is, that's kind of a big deal.
3. The year before last as a center he had a DRTG of 102. That was his best of his 4 seasons. It also would've easily been the best on the team if it happened last year. It was also the season where he stifled M Gasol in the playoffs. Meyers is a natural center. One who jacks threes, but still a center. He's tall, he's strong, and he's not mobile enough to defend stretch fours permanently in the modern NBA.
4. Plumlee is in a contract year. Meyers is sealed up long-term. If you have to pick one of those two guys to cement themselves as the permanent center this year, which would you rather go with? The short-armed, 6-10ish, 2 year older, poor free throw shooting Plumlee, or the 7-1, younger and three point shooting muscle-head of Meyers?
5. Bottom line: In the best case scenario of their careers, which of Plumlee or Leonard do you see being the starting center of a WCF team? Plumlee is a nice guy, a good passer, and a willing athlete. But in the end his arms are too short to defend the rim and his shooting is to poor to rely on in crunch minutes. A healthy Leonard upends the general defensive strategies of other teams.
I wrote a similar post like this last year around this time. (See below). It was also a lot Leonard Kool-Aid, so I guess you can call me a sucker for it. But I think there's still a lot of truth in what I said--although I've come around now to the realization that he's a center and not a power forward in the modern NBA.
If you look at Pace over the past decade, it's gone up by 3 shots per game to 93.9 (or 3.3% increase). If you look at 3PA, it's gone up by 7 per game to 22.4 (a 43% increase). So pace has increased a little, three point shooting a lot. These two stats (plus my own eyeballs) seem to suggest that more teams are going small to shoot more perimeter shots, not necessarily to get faster. Coaches trade off some rebounding, interior defense and interior scoring so they can get in on that sweet, sweet threeball action (and defend it better on the other end).
But what if your 7'1 center hits threes like a really good guard?
I'm a big fan of lefties in any sport, because they have a weird unnatural advantage. They see right handers every night, so it's no big adjustment for them to go up against another right hander. But a right hander facing a southpaw is uncomfortable. How do you practice against it? You're used to going one way, and the lefty goes the opposite. You have to forget so much of what you know to deal with just this one guy.
For all practical purposes, Meyers is a really extreme southpaw in the modern NBA. He's not a complete anomaly in NBA history, of course. There are a small handful of guys his size in NBA history with his range. But how many of those guys were going up against 6'7 power forwards like we're seeing more and more in the league?
Leonard may not ever be the best player on our team. It's always going to be Lillard's team. Vonleh may have the most true superstar potential. But there are half dozen point guards in the league who have a similar game to Lillard. If Vonleh reaches his potential, he'll be in the mold of several power forwards.
But Leonard is going to be that one guy every night the other team really has to think about. There's no real template for guarding him, no practice dummy who does quite what he does. You can't just "go small," because that's what we see every night, much like all the other right handers. Because we're big, yes, we'll give up more threes than a lot of teams. Seven footers aren't the best at runouts. But I have faith that over 82 games our defensive schemes will factor that in, exposing us less to that problem as experience develops. And the remaining problems will be mitigated by our sizable rebounding and interior defense and scoring advantages.


