MVP Race- According To The Mouth Breathers....

[Natebishop3]

I saw an interesting stat, that Westbrook isn't even #1 this season (let alone all-time) for contested rebounds by a guard. However, he's #1 by a mile for uncontested rebounds by a guard. I think what Westbrook is doing is both an amazing display of basketball ability and an amazing display of stat-padding. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

Plus the home cookin that he gets on his assists.

 

[Po'sFinest]

And he shouldn't be punished for NOT having talent around him. If you think about it, other teams are zeroing in ON him and he STILL puts those numbers up.

When Lillard was playing trash for stretches of games Lillard fan boys would say:

"Teams zero in on him that's why!"

 

[Natebishop3]

When Lillard was playing trash for stretches of games Lillard fan boys would say:

"Teams zero in on him that's why!"

What does Lillard have to do with any of this? Couldn't pass up a chance to bash on him?

 

[Boob-No-More]

One thing that gets overlooked in all these video game numbers is the negative records Harden and Westbrook are also setting. They have both completely shattered the NBA single season record for turnovers. Harden set the record last year with 374 TOVs. The previous record was 366 set by Artis Gilmore in 1977-78. This year, Harden is at 444 TOVs and counting and Westbrook is at 424.

Westbrook is also missing field goals at a rate that has not been seen on a regular basis since the early 1960s. By the end of the season, he will have missed around 1130 shots - a number exceeded only one time each by Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant (who both scored considerably more and shot the ball better).

And since missed shots and TOVs figure into USG%, Westbrook is about to completely shatter the NBA record for USG%. He came close to setting the record two seasons ago when Durant missed 59 games when he had a USG% of 38.37, second only to Kobe's 38.74 and ahead of Jordan's career high of 38.29. The difference is both those players scored a lot more and did so more efficiently.

Based on Westbrook's season to date, here's the four highest USG% seasons in NBA history, and their associated scoring averages:

Russell Westbrook - 2016-17, USG% - 41.7, Scoring Average = 31.8 ppg
Kobe Bryant - 2005-06, USG% - 38.7, Scoring Average = 35.4 ppg
Russell Westbrook - 2014-15, USG% - 38.4, Scoring Average = 28.1 ppg
Michael Jordan - 1986-87, USG% - 38.3, Scoring Average = 37.1 ppg

This will tempt the Westrook fan boys to point out that by comparing Westbrook to Michael and Kobe I am just reinforcing he is one of the greatest players in the history of the game. Not so. This is not a favorable comparison. Westbrook's ridiculous USG%, number of TOVs and missed shots prove than he's not only the biggest ball hog in NBA history, but also, by a very wide margin, the least efficient. Look at how much lower his scoring averages are than Kobe's and Michael's for comparable usage rates.

Rule changes and changes in style of play have permitted Westbrook and Harden to put of these "historic" stats, both good and bad. It may win one of them the MVP (personally, as much as I hate the way he flops, I'd give it to Harden because his team is winning more and his USG% is a much more reasonable 34.2 - good for 31st all time), but it will be interesting to see how well this modern style of hero ball translates to the post season. I suspect not very well. It's too easy for good, well coached teams to shut down one player when game planning for a 7-game playoff series. I suspect that teams that share the ball and play team basketball will continue to be the ones that have the most post seasons success.

What we do know is one of them will make it past the first round, but only because they will play each other.

BNM

 

[Sedatedfork]

Saying the MVP needs to be from a "top tier' team is like saying Hall of Fame status is based on rings won. Adam Morrison has twice as many rings as Barkley, Stockton and the Mailman have COMBINED.

twice as many??? (0+0+0)*2 =0.

 

[BigGameDamian]

I don't give a fuck HOW he got em, that is history in front of your eyes right there. Ha, Ricky Davis!?

 

[Boob-No-More]

When Lillard was playing trash for stretches of games Lillard fan boys would say:

"Teams zero in on him that's why!"

You are such a disingenuous troll. If Lillard was missing as many shots and turning the ball over anywhere near as much as Westbrook, you'd be posting several times a day about his shitting shot selection and careless play. Instead, you're on here slurping Westbrook's nuts.

Just look at these numbers:

Missed shots:
Westbrook = 1075
Lillard = 797

Turnovers:
Westbrook = 424
Lillard = 193

So, until Lillard starts missing 50% more shots and starts committing twice as many TOVs, you have zero right to ever criticize him ever again in this forum.

But we both know you will. It's your same tedious, tired, boring trollish act. It defines you as a poster.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

it will be interesting to see how well this modern style of hero ball translates to the post season. I suspect not very well. It's too easy for good, well coached teams to shut down one player when game planning for a 7-game playoff series. I suspect that teams that share the ball and play team basketball will continue to be the ones that have the most post seasons success.

I think Harden's style will translate to postseason play a little better than Westbrook's, because he's basically taking the Steve Nash style drive-and-kick or shoot a three to a crazy extreme. Nash didn't use possessions at Harden's rate. Houston has surrounded Harden with shooters, which is the best way to leverage this kind of ball dominance. Harden is a willing passer, it's just that everything has to run through him. Nash's Phoenix teams had ancillary handlers and distributors and Nash could play off the ball too.

That said, Harden's worst games have come against smart, organized defenses like Golden State and San Antonio, so I don't think Houston can win a title like this. Locked in defenses are better at cutting down his passing lanes and goading him into bad shots and turnovers.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I also like the stat of "The Thunder are 32-9 when Russ has a triple double, and 13-24 when he doesn't!!" stat. Hmm--let's see...

They're 10-22 when he's below double-figure boards. But that's primarily because in those games, the opponents are shooting higher percentages. His offensive rebound numbers are basically the same in wins/losses (1.62 in wins, 1.70 in losses).

They're 8-21 when he's below 10 assists. Likely...because his teammates aren't making shots. When all the offense goes through one guy, he's nearly guaranteed 10+ assists if they're hitting shots.

Oooh--here's a fun one! In 78 games, Westbrook averages 24 FGA. When he shoots fewer than 24 times, the Thunder are 27-14; when he takes 24 or more--18-19. So perhaps Westbrook isn't "carrying" his team after all--looks more like his ball-hogging is slowing them down.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

You are such a disingenuous troll. If Lillard was missing as many shots and turning the ball over anywhere near as much as Westbrook, you'd be posting several times a day about his shitting shot selection and careless play. Instead, you're on here slurping Westbrook's nuts.

Just look at these numbers:

Missed shots:
Westbrook = 1075
Lillard = 797

Turnovers:
Westbrook = 424
Lillard = 193

So, until Lillard starts missing 50% more shots and starts committing twice as many TOVs, you have zero right to ever criticize him ever again in this forum.

But we both know you will. It's your same tedious, tired, boring trollish act. It defines you as a poster.

BNM

BTW--would you believe that the Thunder are actually 21-13 when Westbrook has 6 or more turnovers, and 24-20 when he has 5 or fewer? His turnovers actually have a negligible impact on his team's record.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

BTW--would you believe that the Thunder are actually 21-13 when Westbrook has 6 or more turnovers, and 24-20 when he has 5 or fewer? His turnovers actually have a negligible impact on his team's record.

How about 4 or more versus 3 or less? Six versus five feels like it's comparing very bad to bad.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here's another one for the Westbrook fan boys/Lillard haters:

If Dame shot the ball as much as Westbrook, based on his superior shooting percentages, he'd be averaging 33.9 ppg. That would be the second highest scoring average in the last 29 years.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

How about 4 or more versus 3 or less? Six versus five feels like it's comparing very bad to bad.

Considering he's only had 13 games all year that were 3 or below, I didn't think that would constitute a statistically significant sample size. But since you asked, they're 7-6 in those 13 games, and 38-27 in those with 4 or more. In fact, his sweet spot actually seems to be between 5-7 turnovers. 27-10 in that range, 18-23 when above or below.

 

[H.C.]

I have a question.
How many times did the Cavs make the playoffs or get to .500 without LBJ sense he entered the league?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Considering he's only had 13 games all year that were 3 or below, I didn't think that would constitute a statistically significant sample size. But since you asked, they're 7-6 in those 13 games, and 38-27 in those with 4 or more. In fact, his sweet spot actually seems to be between 5-7 turnovers. 27-10 in that range, 18-23 when above or below.

That seems to tell the story that his turnovers are generally unforced by defense, which makes sense given his scoring (nobody is stopping him). So in this case, his turnovers are more a factor of how much he's handling the ball. And given how much his success and the team's are intertwined, low TO games are probably low USG games, meaning low scoring games..? More likely to lose then that leaves 6+ as a "bad game" for Russ.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

What I'd really love to see are stats that indicate touches and possession time. What percent of a team's possessions a particular player touches the ball; how many touches overall (showing multiple touches per possession); what percentage of time a particular player has physical possession of the ball. I'd bet SportVue tracks all that stuff, but I'd be fascinated to see how Russ' numbers on those things compare to other stars.

 

[riverman]

Saying the MVP needs to be from a "top tier' team is like saying Hall of Fame status is based on rings won. Adam Morrison has twice as many rings as Barkley, Stockton and the Mailman have COMBINED.

Will Perdue and Steve Kerr have more than all them..with two teams

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Will Perdue and Steve Kerr have more than all them..with two teams

Robert Horry says hi.

 

[riverman]

What I'd really love to see are stats that indicate touches and possession time. What percent of a team's possessions a particular player touches the ball; how many touches overall (showing multiple touches per possession); what percentage of time a particular player has physical possession of the ball. I'd bet SportVue tracks all that stuff, but I'd be fascinated to see how Russ' numbers on those things compare to other stars.

I think D'Antoni should probably get coach of the year for the way he's put this roster in motion...he's changed Harden's game for the better...Harden is my runner up for MVP but I still say Westbrook has done something beyond any of them and really willed his team to what success they have ...I never thought Oscar Roberston's record would fall.

 

[BonesJones]

Saying the MVP needs to be from a "top tier' team is like saying Hall of Fame status is based on rings won. Adam Morrison has twice as many rings as Barkley, Stockton and the Mailman have COMBINED.

No it's not. Being "valuable" towards your teams own mediocrity isn't an accomplishment.

 

[BonesJones]

If Westbrook was getting only 5 rebounds a game, he'd have no chance at MVP. He knew that going in, so all season he's chased after rebounds. Chased as in: jumped in front of teammates, ran away from his own guy while he shoots to get to the front of the rim to rebound, etc.

His triple-double isn't as impressive to me because he tried so hard to get it. It didn't come naturally.

He's inefficient, and if he were to shoot every possession with nearly the same percentages, the team would score 95 points per 100 possessions.

He's also not clutch, and has a tendency to shoot his team out of games.

Therefore, his scoring isn't impressive, his rebounding is bullshit, and his defense suffers due to rebound chasing. BPM gets inflated because of this, and guys like HCP love it.

His passing is the only (somewhat) impressive thing about his game. Even that's inflated because his usage rate is so damn high.

An inefficient chucker, ball dominant rebound chaser should not win MVP. IDGAF about his triple double. That's for young NBA fanboys to geek out over. "He just got his 10th rebound!!! Another triple double baby!!! GOAT! SWERVE! *then dabs*" type shit.... Compared to "He only had 9 rebounds. Damnit. He had a bad game." One rebound by a PG to these fanboys is the difference between a good and bad game.

This dude shouldn't be top 3 in MVP voting.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

No way FAMS! You can't do what Westbrook has done and NOT give him the MVP! JKidd said as much last night.

Oscar took 3rd in the MVP race when he did it.

Hoops is more than stats, Fams.

 

[Strenuus]

You are such a disingenuous troll. If Lillard was missing as many shots and turning the ball over anywhere near as much as Westbrook, you'd be posting several times a day about his shitting shot selection and careless play. Instead, you're on here slurping Westbrook's nuts.

Just look at these numbers:

Missed shots:
Westbrook = 1075
Lillard = 797

Turnovers:
Westbrook = 424
Lillard = 193

So, until Lillard starts missing 50% more shots and starts committing twice as many TOVs, you have zero right to ever criticize him ever again in this forum.

But we both know you will. It's your same tedious, tired, boring trollish act. It defines you as a poster.

BNM

I think the kids say: Get rekt.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

if westbrick is MVP why didnt his team win when they had 2 other MVPs on their team? simple, because they are all trash teammates.

 

[BonesJones]

if westbrick is MVP why didnt his team win when they had 2 other MVPs on their team? simple, because they are all trash teammates.

Exactly. They diminish each others impact.

I honestly think a starting lineup of:
Conley
Middleton
Lebron
Millsap
Gobert

Would be WAYYY better than
Westbrook
Harden
Durant
Love
Cousins

Even though the latter lineup has the assumed advantage at 4 positions.

It's all about how pieces mesh.

 

[BonesJones]

Harden scores 2.5 PPG less than Westbrook, while shooting the same amount of free throws, and SIX less FGs per 36 minutes.

If Harden shot as many shots per 36 (with the same efficiency) as Westbrook he'd average 35.2PPG.
Harden also gets 1 FTA for every 1.9 shots or so. So his free throw attempts per game would be over 13.
Taking that into account, he'd average over 37PPG if he shot as much as Westbrook.

That's with his 11.2 APG, and 8 REB per game.
So the only thing making Westbrook's stats seem more impressive is his 2 extra rebounds per game and the fact that he shoots a lot more.

All things equal, I'd take
37, 11, and 8 on 61 TS% on a team that's 53-25
over
32, 10, and 10 on 55 TS% on a team that's 45-33

It shouldn't even be a debate. It's kind of ridiculous that so many people Westbrook deserves it over Harden.

Triple Doubles are the most overrated "stat" in basketball. It puts a huge emphasis on getting that 10th assist or rebound. Does anyone care if someone gets their 9th assist or rebound? No. But that 10th one, that's some huge accomplishment. Average that 10 instead of that 9 and then we compare you to Oscar Robertson and say you're doing things that have never been seen. Only get 9 and you're doing something that someone else (Harden) is doing in the current year.

 

[BonesJones]

I think the kids say: Get rekt.

Actually, it's Get Fuckt.

 

[BonesJones]

Here's another one for the Westbrook fan boys/Lillard haters:

If Dame shot the ball as much as Westbrook, based on his superior shooting percentages, he'd be averaging 33.9 ppg. That would be the second highest scoring average in the last 29 years.

BNM

Did you calculate the extra amount of free throw attempts he'd get from
1.) The higher usage rate
2.) The "Star" hype he'd get? (i.e. more "star" calls)?

 

[H.C.]

As much as I hate to say it because I just don't like the guy.(I don't really have a reason to not like him either)
LBJ is the MVP.
He has been for the past several seasons. But he gets overlooked because the things he does now are expected.
LBJ and others have been a victim of, "You can't give it to the same player every year."
I guess he'll have to settle for a different MVP award.

 

[Po'sFinest]

You are such a disingenuous troll. If Lillard was missing as many shots and turning the ball over anywhere near as much as Westbrook, you'd be posting several times a day about his shitting shot selection and careless play. Instead, you're on here slurping Westbrook's nuts.

Just look at these numbers:

Missed shots:
Westbrook = 1075
Lillard = 797

Turnovers:
Westbrook = 424
Lillard = 193

So, until Lillard starts missing 50% more shots and starts committing twice as many TOVs, you have zero right to ever criticize him ever again in this forum.

But we both know you will. It's your same tedious, tired, boring trollish act. It defines you as a poster.

BNM

I'm a very nice guy. I actually like your posts too but I still respect you