My guess for Portland's center next year: Al Horford

[illmatic99]

As mentioned earlier, Horford is hardly under the radar. He did kinda get me thinking about another former Florida bigman: Joakim Noah.

How serious are his injuries? I think we can get him on a < 10 mil/yr deal, and save that $ to get a top level wing. He's like Plums on steroids, only 2 yrs removed from winning DPOY, and only 7 months older than Horford.

 

[B-Roy]

As mentioned earlier, Horford is hardly under the radar. He did kinda get me thinking about another former Florida bigman: Joakim Noah.

How serious are his injuries? I think we can get him on a < 10 mil/yr deal, and save that $ to get a top level wing. He's like Plums on steroids, only 2 yrs removed from winning DPOY, and only 7 months older than Horford.

Even more inept offensively. If you aren't getting the 1st team all-NBA Noah I don't know if it's worth pursuing him over someone else. Plums can duplicate a lot of what Noah does and that money can be used elsewhere.

 

[Orion Bailey]

No to Noah. Doesnt fit at all. Injury prone, over the hill. Nothing we really need that we dont already have or that a player will develop into.

I think Harkless can develop into a DGreen type of player ( little less assists)
Much rather develop Harkless into this mold, than go after NOah.

 

[illmatic99]

Even more inept offensively. If you aren't getting the 1st team all-NBA Noah I don't know if it's worth pursuing him over someone else. Plums can duplicate a lot of what Noah does and that money can be used elsewhere.

My interest in Noah is like 99% because of his defense and rim protection. If he can tap into even a fraction of that ability still, he'd be light years ahead of Plums defensively.

And let's not forget his passing ability. Plums ast % this year is 3.7%. Noah last year was at 13.1%. They're not even in the same boat in that skill.

 

[B-Roy]

My interest in Noah is like 99% because of his defense and rim protection. If he can tap into even a fraction of that ability still, he'd be light years ahead of Plums defensively.

Yeah but that is 1st team all-NBA Noah.

Noah even before going down with the injury this season was a shell of himself. He's been that way since last season, definitely not an impact player anymore.

 

[illmatic99]

Yeah but that is 1st team all-NBA Noah.

Noah even before going down with the injury this season was a shell of himself. He's been that way since last season, definitely not an impact player anymore.

Maybe I'm reaching, but I attribute a lot of that to Hoiberg fucking up their chemistry by benching Noah.

 

[B-Roy]

Maybe I'm reaching, but I attribute a lot of that to Hoiberg fucking up their chemistry by benching Noah.

Noah wasn't even good last year though. I get to see a lot of Bulls games living in Chicago, and Noah lost that pep to his step he had two years ago. At age 31, I don't see him getting that back.

 

[Orion Bailey]

My interest in Noah is like 99% because of his defense and rim protection. If he can tap into even a fraction of that ability still, he'd be light years ahead of Plums defensively.

And let's not forget his passing ability. Plums ast % this year is 3.7%. Noah last year was at 13.1%. They're not even in the same boat in that skill.

I question this big time. Those percentages dont pass the eye test. Plums seems to have great court awareness and makes great passes. as Many as Noah? No, but is our offense set up for that? Plums and the offense are still learning how to click. PLums is one of the better passing/Ast bigs in the league from what games I watch ( admittedly I only see other teams when we play them).
Plums will continue to develop and as the offense gets more set and dependable, I believe we will see Plums average 3-4 assists a game next year.

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm skeptical about how much money we will actually have. I'm fine with losing Hendo. He's a UFA and I think he's good enough to start in the NBA. I don't want to pay him starter money to come off the bench.

Crabbe and Harkless are must-keeps though. They're both young, they're both continuing to develop. We have their rights, so we can match. I think they're both going to receive substantial offers.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I'm skeptical about how much money we will actually have. I'm fine with losing Hendo. He's a UFA and I think he's good enough to start in the NBA. I don't want to pay him starter money to come off the bench.

Crabbe and Harkless are must-keeps though. They're both young, they're both continuing to develop. We have their rights, so we can match. I think they're both going to receive substantial offers.

Man, Im so on the fence about Crabbe vs Hendo. Most of me says Crabbe has the brighter future, but Hendo provides some veteran stability we dont really have, which has been on display lately. Crabbe is currently too streaky and inconsistent and Hendo just seems to be a solid 12-15 pt night guy. Im not so sure we might not be better off letting Crabbe go and paying Hendo. He really isnt that much older, but sure seems to have the confidence that I wish some others had.
Hendo has really grown on me, especially after he said he would love to come back and has never played with a team like this.

 

[illmatic99]

I question this big time. Those percentages dont pass the eye test. Plums seems to have great court awareness and makes great passes. as Many as Noah? No, but is our offense set up for that? Plums and the offense are still learning how to click. PLums is one of the better passing/Ast bigs in the league from what games I watch ( admittedly I only see other teams when we play them).
Plums will continue to develop and as the offense gets more set and dependable, I believe we will see Plums average 3-4 assists a game next year.

You are correct. I was looking at the wrong numbers. Noah last year was at 23%, Plums this year at 16%, still a pretty substantial difference. Raw data says he averaged 2 more per game than Plumlee does this year.

 

[Natebishop3]

Man, Im so on the fence about Crabbe vs Hendo. Most of me says Crabbe has the brighter future, but Hendo provides some veteran stability we dont really have, which has been on display lately. Crabbe is currently too streaky and inconsistent and Hendo just seems to be a solid 12-15 pt night guy. Im not so sure we might not be better off letting Crabbe go and paying Hendo. He really isnt that much older, but sure seems to have the confidence that I wish some others had.
Hendo has really grown on me, especially after he said he would love to come back and has never played with a team like this.

Crabbe is an RFA, which means we control his destiny. We can wait and see what offers he gets, and then we have some time to match. Crabbe is also perfect as a bench guy. He's not ready to start, but he could slide into that role in a pinch. He has consistently gotten better every year and he's still young (24 years old).

Hendo is a UFA. He can sign with whomever he wants and there's no waiting period. He could receive an offer that he likes and sign on the dotted line as soon as the moratorium is lifted. We can't wait for him to receive offers. We can't take a patient approach to re-signing him. If we want to keep Hendo, we have to move quickly because there simply aren't that many shooting guards available. He's a starting quality guard, and he's going to get a starting quality offer.

The difference between Crabbe's situation and Hendo's situation is that we might be able to use the cap space before matching Crabbe's offer. If Hendo receives an offer, we will have to match or exceed right away.

 

[B-Roy]

Man, Im so on the fence about Crabbe vs Hendo. Most of me says Crabbe has the brighter future, but Hendo provides some veteran stability we dont really have, which has been on display lately. Crabbe is currently too streaky and inconsistent and Hendo just seems to be a solid 12-15 pt night guy. Im not so sure we might not be better off letting Crabbe go and paying Hendo. He really isnt that much older, but sure seems to have the confidence that I wish some others had.
Hendo has really grown on me, especially after he said he would love to come back and has never played with a team like this.

Hendo is better right now for sure, but the UFA status and his big cap hold makes his situation tricky. Crabbe is a 2nd round RFA, meaning his cap hold is next to nothing, and we can match any deal. Olshey can go out and sign a big FA and match Crabbe afterwards. My fear with Hendo is that Olshey is still chasing Howard/Horford/Parsons/Whoever while Hendo secures a nice deal with another team and just leaves. All players like to feel like they're a priority, so if a team goes balls to the walls for Hendo from the beginning I wouldn't blame him for not waiting.

My BIGGEST fear is that Olshey strikes out on everyone, AND Hendo is gone by the time he strikes out. Then we really are shit out of luck.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Crabbe is an RFA, which means we control his destiny. We can wait and see what offers he gets, and then we have some time to match. Crabbe is also perfect as a bench guy. He's not ready to start, but he could slide into that role in a pinch. He has consistently gotten better every year and he's still young (24 years old).

Hendo is a UFA. He can sign with whomever he wants and there's no waiting period. He could receive an offer that he likes and sign on the dotted line as soon as the moratorium is lifted. We can't wait for him to receive offers. We can't take a patient approach to re-signing him. If we want to keep Hendo, we have to move quickly because there simply aren't that many shooting guards available. He's a starting quality guard, and he's going to get a starting quality offer.

The difference between Crabbe's situation and Hendo's situation is that we might be able to use the cap space before matching Crabbe's offer. If Hendo receives an offer, we will have to match or exceed right away.

Oh I get it, and it is indeed a dilemma in my book but I cant seem to use this as a reason to not try to keep Hendo. I think he has fit in very well and seems to be part of the big picture.
Maybe we just offer him the 8-10 mill and tell him he cant wait. Sign now or its off the table in two days... I dunno. Thats kinda sleazy sounding to me... tough one for sure, but im not willing to actively just let him go without conversations about being part of the big picture and taking a little less to help make us contenders.

 

[BBert]

Noah wasn't even good last year though. I get to see a lot of Bulls games living in Chicago, and Noah lost that pep to his step he had two years ago. At age 31, I don't see him getting that back.

Noah was all motor. At his age and injury history, I agree.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Hendo is better right now for sure, but the UFA status and his big cap hold makes his situation tricky. Crabbe is a 2nd round RFA, meaning his cap hold is next to nothing, and we can match any deal. Olshey can go out and sign a big FA and match Crabbe afterwards. My fear with Hendo is that Olshey is still chasing Howard/Horford/Parsons/Whoever while Hendo secures a nice deal with another team and just leaves. All players like to feel like they're a priority, so if a team goes balls to the walls for Hendo from the beginning I wouldn't blame him for not waiting.

My BIGGEST fear is that Olshey strikes out on everyone, AND Hendo is gone by the time he strikes out. Then we really are shit out of luck.

I hear ya and agree with everything but the NO part.

NO is the best car salesman in the biz. No way he strikes out on every pitch.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Thread Title:

My Wet Dream for Portland's center next year: Al Horford

fify.
Mods, please edit the title of this thread!

 

[Natebishop3]

Oh I get it, and it is indeed a dilemma in my book but I cant seem to use this as a reason to not try to keep Hendo. I think he has fit in very well and seems to be part of the big picture.
Maybe we just offer him the 8-10 mill and tell him he cant wait. Sign now or its off the table in two days... I dunno. Thats kinda sleazy sounding to me... tough one for sure, but im not willing to actively just let him go without conversations about being part of the big picture and taking a little less to help make us contenders.

If you give him 10 million, and then Crabbe and Harkless get something similar, that's all our money. So you have essentially forgone any other free agent acquisition to keep Hendo at a spot where we're already pretty deep. I guess that's fine if you're happy with our roster as it is.

 

[Orion Bailey]

If you give him 10 million, and then Crabbe and Harkless get something similar, that's all our money. So you have essentially forgone any other free agent acquisition to keep Hendo at a spot where we're already pretty deep. I guess that's fine if you're happy with our roster as it is.

I don't want both Crabbe and Hendo. I think its one or the other. They are too similar overall and I likes Hendo's athleticism and dribble penetration much better than Crabbes. I think we take the Crabbe money and give it to Horford.

 

[B-Roy]

I know Harkless has been playing well recently, but if he gets 10 million a year (even at the inflated cap) averaging 6/3 on the season....whoooo boy, I'm not sure I like the direction salaries are going. Maybe if he breaks out completely in the playoffs...

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't want both Crabbe and Hendo. I think its one or the other. They are too similar overall and I likes Hendo's athleticism and dribble penetration much better than Crabbes. I think we take the Crabbe money and give it to Horford.

He's another wrinkle, if teams know that we're going to match, they will be less likely to throw an offer at Crabbe. We didn't make an offer to Kanter until later in free agency. Since Hendo is a UFA, teams won't have any reservations about throwing deals at him that he will either accept or reject. Maybe we could do a sign-and-trade with Crabbe though.

 

[Orion Bailey]

He's another wrinkle, if teams know that we're going to match, they will be less likely to throw an offer at Crabbe. We didn't make an offer to Kanter until later in free agency. Since Hendo is a UFA, teams won't have any reservations about throwing deals at him that he will either accept or reject. Maybe we could do a sign-and-trade with Crabbe though.

Yes!!! sign and trade for who though?

 

[Natebishop3]

Yes!!! sign and trade for who though?

I'm not sure what the current rules are for that kind of scenario. They don't have happen very often anymore.

 

[Orion Bailey]

When considering sign and trades, are we allowing the bar to be too low? What percentage of a chance does anyone think we could sign and trade leonard and Crabbe, along with Kaman and money for Anthony Davis? Probably not enough, but if they don't think its working (which it isnt) then maybe we get him for less?

 

[Natebishop3]

When considering sign and trades, are we allowing the bar to be too low? What percentage of a chance does anyone think we could sign and trade leonard and Crabbe, along with Kaman and money for Anthony Davis? Probably not enough, but if they don't think its working (which it isnt) then maybe we get him for less?

That has zero chance of happening. They would want Dame at the minimum for Davis.

 

[Orion Bailey]

That has zero chance of happening. They would want Dame at the minimum for Davis.

How about Kaman, sign and trade Crabbe, Leonard and CJ?

Hendo takes CJ's spot and we go get Derozen to come off the bench?


Man i'm really reaching now....

Me, like eveyrone here.. is REALLY itching to just figure out the answer!!!!

 

[Draco]

Horford is the 2nd biggest UFA in free agency (LeBron doesn't count). He's not an under the radar pick.

He's going to have teams throwing max offers left and right. Chances he comes here is slim to none.
'

Yeah good point. This thread could be renamed;

"My guess for Portland's free agent is LeBron, Durant, Horford."

 

[Natebishop3]

How about Kaman, sign and trade Crabbe, Leonard and CJ?

Hendo takes CJ's spot and we go get Derozen to come off the bench?


Man i'm really reaching now....

Me, like eveyrone here.. is REALLY itching to just figure out the answer!!!!

The Pelicans consider Davis to be one of the 10 best players in the league. Maybe top 5 if he's healthy.

No combination of CJ/Crabbe/Leonard/ or Kaman will get that done.

 

[Draco]

I'm skeptical about how much money we will actually have. I'm fine with losing Hendo. He's a UFA and I think he's good enough to start in the NBA. I don't want to pay him starter money to come off the bench.

Crabbe and Harkless are must-keeps though. They're both young, they're both continuing to develop. We have their rights, so we can match. I think they're both going to receive substantial offers.

We will still have money this year; but the concern needs to be more about 2 years from now. CJ likely gets a max extension. Plumlee will be eligible for an extension. As you said Crabbe and Hendo will get big raises. Dame's contract is going to be above the max if he is all-NBA. The cap goes down a few million after all these increases. Neil has a history of being prudent with team salary especially on role players; which everyone outside DameCJ have been.

I'm sure we'd give Durant/Horford stars the max; but outside the unlikely studs signing here Neil's history lends me to think if we add anyone it will be close to MLE level than $10+ million. He prefers to go after the diamond in the rough.

 

[Orion Bailey]

The Pelicans consider Davis to be one of the 10 best players in the league. Maybe top 5 if he's healthy.

No combination of CJ/Crabbe/Leonard/ or Kaman will get that done.

Man your such a buzzkill. lol

CJ/Crabbe/Leonard isn't a good prospective future package?

I think he might be starting to enter the DMC talks. NO just isn't performing and their front office doesn't know how to put a team together around him. I think they might just do something as stupid as I suggest.