My guess for Portland's center next year: Al Horford

[Draco]

Not quite in the Aminu mold, per se, but I think Marvin Williams would be a good fit. Another 6'9" guy, but at 235 a bigger body to play the PF spot. Turns 30 this summer, but doesn't play a game reliant on athleticism. Basically shooting 40% from 3 this year, 83% from the line, and has a TS% of 58%, which would be second on this team behind Ed Davis. I doubt he would be particularly expensive, but I think he would be an excellent fit rotating with Harkless/Aminu in the 3/4 spots, and would definitely offer a lot offensively.

Yeah I mentioned him in another thread; I think that'd be a good idea. He might be like Aminu or Davis in that we can steal him the first day of free agency while other teams are chasing stars. The DameCJ back court seems to really thrive off forwards who can move their feet, decent athletes, can rebound, and have limited offensive creation skills. Biyombo is another guy I'd take a look at; we could use a defensive center.

Snag those guys the first day of free agency and plan to use the rest of our cap space to keep our core. If for some freak reason Durant wants to come here just renounce our restricted free agents. Gives us the best of both worlds, sign the value free agents but chase the stars.

 

[B-Roy]

Yeah I mentioned him in another thread; I think that'd be a good idea. He might be like Aminu or Davis in that we can steal him the first day of free agency while other teams are chasing stars. The DameCJ back court seems to really thrive off forwards who can move their feet, decent athletes, and can rebound. Biyombo is another guy I'd take a look at; we could use a defensive center.

Snag those guys the first day of free agency and plan to use the rest of our cap space to keep our core. If for some freak reason Durant wants to come here just renounce our restricted free agents. Gives us the best of both worlds.

Frankly, we don't need any more role players. If that's the route we're going we might as well just bring everyone back.

What we need is someone who's good at more than one or two things.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Yeah I mentioned him in another thread; I think that'd be a good idea. He might be like Aminu or Davis in that we can steal him the first day of free agency while other teams are chasing stars. The DameCJ back court seems to really thrive off forwards who can move their feet, decent athletes, can rebound, and have limited offensive creation skills. Biyombo is another guy I'd take a look at; we could use a defensive center.

Snag those guys the first day of free agency and plan to use the rest of our cap space to keep our core. If for some freak reason Durant wants to come here just renounce our restricted free agents. Gives us the best of both worlds, sign the value free agents but chase the stars.

I'd be down with Biyombo too. That sounds like a solid plan for reinforcing our frontcourt. Can you get Neil onboard?

 

[damianlillard]

we should go after festus ezeli. he is tall and big. he can play great defense. i think he would come in relatively cheap. he would be a great back up. plus at least he is better than meyers.

 

[Draco]

we should go after festus ezeli. he is tall and big. he can play great defense. i think he would come in relatively cheap. he would be a great back up. plus at least he is better than meyers.

What do you mean by 'cheap'? I'd expect he gets at least $10 million per season. With our center injury history I'd rather go in a different direction.

 

[Denny Crane]

The cap will be around $92M next year. The Blazers will have $46.7M in guaranteed salaries. That gives them about $45.3M of space. Of course they'll have about $37.1M of non-guaranteed contracts and CAP holds to deal with. I'd be surprised if they brought both Henderson and Crabbe back. As Nate pointed out earlier, bringing back Crabbe offers the Blazers a lot more flexibility. With that being said, they should easily have $25M available to offer a max contract. If need be, the Blazers can go over the cap to bring back guys like Crabbe, Leonard, and Harkless. Since the CAP will go up again the year after next, there's little incentive to try to stay too far under the cap.

Here's my thoughts on who they will target in descending order -

Bring back:
- A Crabbe (Restricted. Contingent on reasonable contract)
- M Harkless (Restricted. Contingent on reasonable contract)
- M Leonard (Restricted. Very contingent on reasonable contract)
- G Henderson (Not restricted, but if the right price and timing work out..)

Offer Max:
- K Durant (yes, we've got to do the token try)
- A Horford (doubt he'll leave Atlanta, but again, give it a try)
- H Whiteside (doubt Olshey will want to give him the max, but worth an offer)
- C Parsons (someone will probably give him the max, and this doesn't feel like a bargain that Olshey typically goes after)
- R Anderson (see Parsons note above)
- D DeRozan (I think his price will be too high, and not a position of high need with CJ and Crabbe on the roster.)

At the right price:
- B Biyombo (age 23)
- E Turner (age 27)
- F Ezeli (age 26)
- E Fournier (age 23. Not a position of need, but perhaps at the right price.)
- K Bazemore (age 26. Not a position of need, but perhaps at the right price.)

At a bargain price:
- M Speights (age 28)
- I Mahinmi (age 29. Good uptick in production this year.)
- Al Jefferson (age 31)
- Z Pachulia (age 32)
- M Teletovic (age 30. Good uptick in production last year.)

We can sign right up to the $45.3M and then extend Crabbe.

We can also sign Hendo ASAP at anything less than $11M (I think that's his cap hold) and free up more cap space.

If we get over the cap before signing Hendo, we can offer him a 5th season.

 

[STOMP]

What do you mean by 'cheap'? I'd expect he gets at least $10 million per season. With our center injury history I'd rather go in a different direction.

if the cap is 92M, then 10M is just 11% of it. Getting a young starting stud 5 at that rate would be a steal.

With our center injury history I'd rather go in a different direction.

you're so right... we shouldn't have drafted Walton because he was an injury risk given his history. Same with Sabas. Same with Roy & LA. Same with Lillard & CJ.

Instead of focusing on talents PDX might acquire, we should just hide in our basements wringing our hands in fear of the injury boogieman. Or maybe management should let the doctors decide which player's injury history makes them too big of a risk to pursue like all the other NBA teams do.

STOMP

 

[Draco]

if the cap is 92M, then 10M is just 11% of it. Getting a young starting stud 5 at that rate would be a steal.


you're so right... we shouldn't have drafted Walton because he was an injury risk given his history. Same with Sabas. Same with Roy & LA. Same with Lillard & CJ.

Instead of focusing on talents PDX might acquire, we should just hide in our basements wringing our hands in fear of the injury boogieman. Or maybe management should let the doctors decide which player's injury history makes them too big of a risk to pursue like all the other NBA teams do.

STOMP

When we drafted all those guys they hadn't missed half their games in their professional playing career. Games played is a significant predictive factor for a 4 years NBA vet. It's not the be all end all but it's a strong indicator.

He's a restricted free agent; if we do get him it'll be a huge red flag his team doesn't think he's worth that contract.

 

[STOMP]

He's a restricted free agent; if we do get him it'll be a huge red flag his team doesn't think he's worth that contract.

or they've gone another direction... they're supposed to be one of Durant's most likely landing spots. Maybe he'd prefer to go somewhere else where he can start?

Instead of stoking fears about a player's health when we're way outside the loop, why not just evaluate his play on the court and think about how it would project with Portland? If the Blazers are interested in him they'll do their due diligence checking out his knee before offering a contract, so that concern is covered by people who actually know whats what.

STOMP

 

[Strenuus]

We shall have to agree to disagree but I don't mind, I've been in the minority but been right in the past.

I see it. He isnt the facilitator Green is, but I think he has many facets he can develop to become a similar player. Again.. NOt become Green, but OUR version of him. What WE need as a team from him in those hustle categories... much like Green.

Saying "our version" of someone is still saying he's gonna be that guy. You're just saying that he (Harkless) is gonna be Green, just for our team. At least, that's how it sounds. That's where people are getting stuck on. Not the "is".

Draymond is a star. I just do not think Hark is gonna be a "star". But we don't need him to be, that's the beautiful part. I'm happy if we get 12/9/3 out of him for a season. Ecstatic, even!

 

[Draco]

Saying Harkless could be our Green is so delusional; he has none of the court vision or interior defense that makes Draymond uniquely special. Might as well say we hope Harkless becomes our version of LeBron, or Jordan. There's just no reason to compare him with those levels of players.

If Harkless could become a version of Darius Miles with a good work ethic, or a Dallas Mavericks Shawn Marion, or Luol Deng level player we'd have a heck of a guy on the roster. Jerome Kersey, Tony Allen, Gerald Wallace role players are better hopes. No reason to compare him to arguably the best big man in the game.

 

[Strenuus]

Saying Harkless could be our Green is so delusional; he has none of the court vision or interior defense that makes Draymond uniquely special. Might as well say we hope Harkless becomes our version of LeBron, or Jordan. There's just no reason to compare him with those levels of players.

If Harkless could become a version of Darius Miles with a good work ethic, or a Dallas Mavericks Shawn Marion, or Luol Deng level player we'd have a heck of a guy on the roster. Jerome Kersey, Tony Allen, Gerald Wallace role players are better hopes. No reason to compare him to arguably the best big man in the game.

Exactly. It's just gonna set up to be a letdown having an expectation of Draymond.

 

[B-Roy]

Saying Harkless could be our Green is so delusional; he has none of the court vision or interior defense that makes Draymond uniquely special. Might as well say we hope Harkless becomes our version of LeBron, or Jordan. There's just no reason to compare him with those levels of players.

If Harkless could become a version of Darius Miles with a good work ethic, or a Dallas Mavericks Shawn Marion, or Luol Deng level player we'd have a heck of a guy on the roster. Jerome Kersey, Tony Allen, Gerald Wallace role players are better hopes. No reason to compare him to arguably the best big man in the game.

Haven't heard the Gerald Wallace comparison before, and I think it fits better than anyone else thrown around. Probably more Portland Gerald than prime Gerald though.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Saying Harkless could be our Green is so delusional; he has none of the court vision or interior defense that makes Draymond uniquely special. Might as well say we hope Harkless becomes our version of LeBron, or Jordan. There's just no reason to compare him with those levels of players.

If Harkless could become a version of Darius Miles with a good work ethic, or a Dallas Mavericks Shawn Marion, or Luol Deng level player we'd have a heck of a guy on the roster. Jerome Kersey, Tony Allen, Gerald Wallace role players are better hopes. No reason to compare him to arguably the best big man in the game.

For me its the eye test. Of course Hark isn't a star. Was Green a star in his first couple of seasons? No. These things take time. Growth takes time. It's why we are born 18" long but grow to 5-6' on average. Growth takes time. In MY opinion, I think Hark can become similar to him form what I see of his ball handling, his outside shooting, his ability to drive to the hoop, his great positioning in rebounding. The thing I think he needs the most improvement on is assists, but as he gets better and defense key in on him, I think his court awareness will improve enough to allow him to raise his assists to find the open man, a Davis or Aminu...

You all think I'm delusional, but you thought I was delusional when I said this team was a .500 club or better at the beginning of the season.
Hark has potential to be that all around glue guy in the middle to me. And that is what Green is for GS, so I believe the comparison holds value.

 

[ripcityboy]

Harkless as our version of Green?! Whoa......

 

[BonesJones]

For me its the eye test. Of course Hark isn't a star. Was Green a star in his first couple of seasons? No. These things take time. Growth takes time. It's why we are born 18" long but grow to 5-6' on average. Growth takes time. In MY opinion, I think Hark can become similar to him form what I see of his ball handling, his outside shooting, his ability to drive to the hoop, his great positioning in rebounding. The thing I think he needs the most improvement on is assists, but as he gets better and defense key in on him, I think his court awareness will improve enough to allow him to raise his assists to find the open man, a Davis or Aminu...

You all think I'm delusional, but you thought I was delusional when I said this team was a .500 club or better at the beginning of the season.
Hark has potential to be that all around glue guy in the middle to me. And that is what Green is for GS, so I believe the comparison holds value.

Outside shooting? Harkness is an awful shooter. Ability to drive to the hoop? He hardly ever creates anything himself.

Green sets up an offense, Harkless is set up by the offense.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Outside shooting? Harkness is an awful shooter. Ability to drive to the hoop? He hardly ever creates anything himself.

Green sets up an offense, Harkless is set up by the offense.

Umm Hark has been hitting the three lately and its the eye test that tells me he can improve. same goes for driving to the hoop. Didnt Hark hit 2 threes in the second half of the OKC game?

Again. He isn't this now. I believe he can become this....I still think too many people are assuming I mean now. I mean with the potential growth I see he can have, I believe he can become our Green.

That's okay though, I don't mind being looked at as delusional and in the major minority. Wouldn't be the first I've proved the masses wrong.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Umm Hark has been hitting the three lately and its the eye test that tells me he can improve. same goes for driving to the hoop. Didnt Hark hit 2 threes in the second half of the OKC game?

Again. He isn't this now. I believe he can become this....I still think too many people are assuming I mean now. I mean with the potential growth I see he can have, I believe he can become our Green.

That's okay though, I don't mind being looked at as delusional and in the major minority. Wouldn't be the first I've proved the masses wrong.

Hark is shooting 39% from 3 lately. Pretty good compared to his earlier season struggles.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Hark is shooting 39% from 3 lately. Pretty good compared to his earlier season struggles.

Yep and his FT% ha sbeen improving too. I see alot of potential growth in this guy in every facet of the game. Making him our potential future DGreen. I know its an unpopular comparison, but so was my 43 win prediction unpopular.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Yep and his FT% ha sbeen improving too. I see alot of potential growth in this guy in every facet of the game. Making him our potential future DGreen. I know its an unpopular comparison, but so was my 43 win prediction unpopular.

I am not worried about comparisons but I will say that he is my #1 guy that I think has to return. Over all of our other restricted or free agents.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Hark is shooting 39% from 3 lately. Pretty good compared to his earlier season struggles.

Green: .385 for the year

Career:
Hark: .299
Green: .340

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Green: .385 for the year

Career:
Hark: .299
Green: .340

Age at rookie year:
Green: 22
Harkless: 19

Age now:
Harkless: 22

Career 3p% at age 22
Green: .209
Harkless: .299

Let's also note that in his first two years, Hark averaged 25 mpg and averaged .336 from 3 over those two years. Then his minutes decreased last year and were low over the first 2/3 of this year, and his 3p% decreased accordingly. As his role and minutes have increased recently, his confidence, range, and accuracy have increased again. Evidence suggests that he's a player who plays better with a consistent defined role. I have no doubt that he'll shoot 33% or better from 3 next year if he's slotted in as a 24+mpg guy from day one.

 

[Draco]

How about Aminu? He defend big men and can play the 4 like Draymond. He rebounds great. He can shoot the three. He's basically our version of Draymond!

What about Plumlee? He can pass the ball like Draymond. He dribbles like Draymond. He takes the ball to the rim like Draymond. He's basically our version of Draymond!

What about Henderson? He can play tough physical defense. He's deceptively strong. He overpowers opponents much taller than him. He's improved his 3 point shooting. He's basically our version of Draymond!

Then of course as has been stated Harkless is our version of Draymond!

We basically have four Draymond Green's on this team. We'll be a powerhouse for years to come!

 

[Hobbesarable]

Hark is shooting 39% from 3 lately. Pretty good compared to his earlier season struggles.

Where did you get that stat?

Hark is 40% from 3 over the last 3 games, 35% over the last 7, and 25% over the last 19.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Where did you get that stat?

Hark is 40% from 3 over the last 3 games, 35% over the last 7, and 25% over the last 19.

In the Harkless appreciation thread I think? Apparently whoever posted it fudged the numbers or I mis-remembered what they wrote though. My fault for not fact checking.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

How about Aminu? He defend big men and can play the 4 like Draymond. He rebounds great. He can shoot the three. He's basically our version of Draymond!

What about Plumlee? He can pass the ball like Draymond. He dribbles like Draymond. He takes the ball to the rim like Draymond. He's basically our version of Draymond!

What about Henderson? He can play tough physical defense. He's deceptively strong. He overpowers opponents much taller than him. He's improved his 3 point shooting. He's basically our version of Draymond!

Then of course as has been stated Harkless is our version of Draymond!

We basically have four Draymond Green's on this team. We'll be a powerhouse for years to come!

Well said. Now we just need to sign Marvin Williams--he shoots 40% from 3 like Draymond! He's a 230+ lb SF/PF like Draymond! His Ortg is way higher than his Drtg like Draymond!--and we can field an entire 5-man-lineup of Draymonds.

 

[Orion Bailey]

How about Aminu? He defend big men and can play the 4 like Draymond. He rebounds great. He can shoot the three. He's basically our version of Draymond!

What about Plumlee? He can pass the ball like Draymond. He dribbles like Draymond. He takes the ball to the rim like Draymond. He's basically our version of Draymond!

What about Henderson? He can play tough physical defense. He's deceptively strong. He overpowers opponents much taller than him. He's improved his 3 point shooting. He's basically our version of Draymond!

Then of course as has been stated Harkless is our version of Draymond!

We basically have four Draymond Green's on this team. We'll be a powerhouse for years to come!

Perfect!!! Even better!!! Glad to see my comparison is coming around.

 

[BonesJones]

I think Harkless' ceiling is 13/8/2 on 49/34/70 percentages. That's no where near Draymond.

 

[BBert]

Although he has the ability to have big rebounding games, averaging 8 seems optimistic. 13/6/2 with good defense is good enough for me. Maybe 15/6/2 if he can be consistent from three.

 

[DaLong]

It's odd to me that the most obvious comparison/hope is that Harkless becomes a force on defense akin to Green and we're all sitting here comparing 3P%. We've already witnessed his instincts and swarming tendencies in a small sample size and I don't think it's a reach to say he could be our best team defender in quite a while and even if not that's Harkless' best chance at developing into a player who can tilt the court.